Options
Nifty probable expiry range Nifty
CMP 9210
Prima facie
Nifty expiry looks likely to be capped on the upside with key levels of 9240 / 9266 / 9285 to act as resistance.
On the lower side 9156 could likely be key support levels for the day.
My trading play is more inclined towards upside being capped with 9240-9265 levels being my guiding levels
This is just a view based on my analysis and not a necessity it will happen
Take care & trade accordingly.
Live Update 12:10 PM on Bank Nifty:- Monthly ExpiryUpside target (22300-22500) posted last week is still valid, being monthly expiry the don't see any major correction today.
Yello zone is no trading zone, above is long and below is short.
Trade with light quality and look out for 22,000 CE unwinding if happens, enter next series 22500 CE and exit around 22300-22500 BN range.
Shorting only below day low gets violated.
Reliance: Beyond technical analysis Today earnings of Reliance industries were declared. It is very clear that the bottom-line of business took a good hit.
Now, RIL has issued the right issue. Here is my look at how as an investor you should look at it.
The right issue will technically reduce your ownership if you don't participate in the right issue. I think one can sell RIL from current level and add them back at around Rs 1260. You can use this profit to buy more shares. (In this case around 15%)
Why 1260?
There is a gap that will be filled by RIL in the near term & personally I have a bearish view on Reliance Industries for short term
Supporting points:
->Low delivery Volume: 28.47% as on 30 April 2020
->Heavy put writing: 1600 OI -> 1,118,000 with a significant increase in OI
1500 OI -> 1,163,000
->Siginificant rally in short term may lead to profit booking.
->After the right issue most of the stocks face heavy selling. (Personal Opinion)
Bollinger Bands + Volume
I have combined Volume with Bollinger bands to show a significant increase in volume. This states that Big/Smart money is present here.
Support/Resistance
I have used Fractals to identify S/R
Reliance, Reliance and RelianceAs we have seen reliance followed our targets of top levels. Now what we have to keep in mind is 1500 levels acts as a strong or rather very strong resistance. Now we have to keep in mind reliance can even touch 1750 levels once(ONCE), Mark it and it would be only factor to lift up nifty, and in other terms if it does goes up, will deny all other stocks which have made a particular pattern of selling.Delivery % doesn't looks good. There is long buildups on 1500's strike and above. Coming to the point i will give calls on both side.
INITIALLY i feel that reliance may if open can do a gapup if not down or same chain movement.
Buy above 1456 for targets 1465 1471 and 1481 and if 5 min candle stays above 1481 then will go 1503 and come back to its initial position.
AND initially anything above red line is bearish for which we need volumes to break!!
Short only below 1402 for simple target of 1383 and if breaks then 1361 can be seen for sure. NOW to keep in mind is below 1362 we can see it come down to fill gaps!
Futures & Options data analysis & view for 22 AprilIn our previous post we had mentioned that if Nifty has to go down, it has to break below 20 day EMA in the next 2 days.
That is what we have precisely seen. Opening scene of Day 2 – Nifty opens & stays below 20 day EMA throughout the day. We have accordingly suggested a trade in that post during market hours.
Let’s analyse the data for the day…
FIIs net sold 17.7K Contracts in Index Futures worth Rs 1070.57 Cr
Futures data analysis
- FIIs added 196 Contracts in Long position and 17.9K Contracts were shorted by them
- Retail participants added 9K Long contracts & squared off 1589 short contracts
- Pro traders added 3.5K Long contracts & squared off 2.9K short contracts
Options data analysis
Call option
- FIIs bought 5.8K Call options & 7.1K Calls were shorted by them
- Retail participants bought 1.07 Lakh Call options & 66.2 K Calls were shorted by them
- Pro traders bought 4.2K Lakh Call options & 44.3 K Calls were shorted by them
Put option
- FIIs bought 3.4K Put options & 4.8K Puts were shorted by them
- Retail participants booked profits / exited in 35.6K Puts Long contracts & exited from 26K Put Short contracts
- Pro traders added 7.47 K Put Long contracts & squared off 3K Put shorts
All in all, retail participants have gone aggressive on the Long side. They are net buyers in Futures and are net Call Long. (They were net Call buyers on 20th April too, suggesting a lot of people might have tried to average their position). FIIs are net short in Futures & keeping it light in options & Pro traders are net buyers in Futures but have balanced their position by adding Call Shorts & net buying some Put options.
Important levels on the lower side 8925 / 8868 / 8822 / 8750
Important levels on the upper side 9030 / 9061 / 9118 / 9196
Level of 8860-8874 is very important.
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A note to all my retail friends who are reading and following me
- please do not try to average positions in options
- Do not enter the trade first and then Hope for things to happen.
It's your money. You have to make things happen and YOU CAN... Just Invest some time in learning.
All the best & Take care...!!!
Banknifty - Daily - Buy - SwingBank nifty after reaching a low on 24Mar2020.
It rallied and formed a higher low on 03Apr2020.
It again rallied and formed 2nd higher low on 16Apr2020.
PriceAction - Forming a series of higher lows, sign for an uptrend.
Good for a swing trade with reasonable Risk Reward.