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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 15 JUN 2023 ExpiryThe beast in banknifty got unleashed today, after a long gap banknifty options really started surging today! You wont believe the OTM prices went above the traded range of Wednesday, that too today being an expiry day! --- BankNifty Weekly Analysis During the current expiry week 9th to 15th June, banknifty shed 556 pts ~ 1.27%. You may not believe that 544pts i.e 97% of that came just in today's trade. --- Today's Analysis We opened gapup right at the resistance level and then started falling. The first 5mts itself shaved off 200+ points. From there we had a steady falling day with no pull back. The selling really aggravated at 13.50 when all of a sudden lot of traders unwound short positions in PE. BN was near 43700 then, the volumes in PE did suggest that few traders were running for cover fearing their position may go deep ITM. This really fueled the next move. We fell another 300pts in 90mts.  Nifty50 was in green till then, see the blue highlighted area - the selling intensified in N50 too. Nifty50 at 10.00 was roaring past the resistance level of 18762 and was looking unstoppable. For the first time since Dec 2022, N50 tried to shoot for ATHs. Banknifty had other plans, may be attributed to the FOMC meeting yesterday - which we will discuss shortly. --- 15mts has now confirmed a break from the trading range, the last time it broke on the downside was on 24 May, which it recovered by 26th. The pick-up in momentum after the range break also signifies unfinished business ahead. --- 1hr TF also shows the range breakout, but the chart is not bearish yet. There are supports at 43253 & 43012 ahead. If banknifty is not stopping there - then it will be an interesting case for the July series. Remember we will have expiries on Fridays from 7th of July. The split of N50 and BN to separate days will definitely improve speculation. --- The curious case of FOMC rate pause Yesterday US FED decided to keep the interest rates at 5.25%. Our RBI has kept the interest rate at 6.50%. Lets just analyze what this interest means for a foreign institutional investor. Assumption: FII is investing in India's debt instruments & not equity Investor has earmarked 100000 USD for investments. In US over a 1 year period his investment will grow to 105250 USD. Whereas if he invests in India it will grow to 106500 USD. Now investment in India has to be done in INR, so there is a currency conversion risk. Lets just calculate how much was the USDINR appreciation for the financial year it was ~ 8.23% So now Mr. Investor has 97735 USD left with him i.e. a opportunity cost of -7.51% if he chose India over his home country. The best way RBI can tackle this issue is either get the USDINR to depreciate or hike the repo rate to have a higher divergence than FED rate. to view all 6 charts visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 13 JUN 2023 FinNiftyAnother day went by where the last 1 hr changed the sentiment of the day. Banknifty rallied 188pts ~ 0.43% from the LOD to the HOD all in 65 mts 14.20 to 15.25. Till that point the view was bearish and open for shorting opportunities. Just check the encircled area, banknifty was struggling to go past the resistance of 44068. The set up seemed almost perfect for a short-sell opportunity, it even had follow through when the 13.50 and 13.55 shaved off 114pts ~ 0.26%. Even the BN options data was showing weakness ahead. But Nifty50 had other plans, you would have noticed how strong it was even in the morning session. And it was not due to NiftyIT's support alone, RELIANCE, ASIANPAINT, ITC, HUL were all amassing gains. The option data for nifty was showing bullishness - the mistake I did was to anticipate nifty to fall once banknifty started its descent.  In fact the real opposite happened, Nifty50 pulled banknifty up, helped it cross the resistance with ease. My decision to go short was taken in a hurry to capitalize on the Finnifty expiry - but what it did was to take out the stop loss. Technically today banknifty and finnifty crossed the resistance whereas nifty50 has few more points to go i.e. till 18762. To an extent the last hour rally would have been due to the positive expectancy from US CPI data. Moreover SPX is at a 52wk high (not at all time high though). --- 15mts chart of BN still shows its trading in a range. Was expecting the lower end to break down today, but that did not happen. --- 1hr TF is also continuing in the same range. The upper band is at ATH levels - crossing that would mean a breakout trade and for that to happen banknifty would have to build lot of momentum. --- Finnifty Expiry Special Finnifty had a chart similar to banknifty. 19421 was the crucial SR zone for today, earlier in the day the trading was happening above this level. Between 13.50 to 13.55 there was a sudden fall back to the SR level. Again I assumed it will break this level and fall below the recent swing low. What actually happened was a rocket-style surge 90pts ~ 0.47% to ensure finnifty closed at the high of the day. From an expiry perspective, the options premiums were decent enough and had adequate juice till 14.00. 19450 CE which closed in the money would have been a jackpot strike if the buyer got in at Rs6 to Rs7 levels as it went up 3x.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 JUN 2023Quite an unexpected performance by NiftyIT today up +1.51% which would have spoiled the party for the Nifty50 bears. Last week as it ended was looking pretty negative for Nifty and flattish for BankNifty. Banknifty had a steady day today, down only 0.1% but the prices were consistently falling giving the impression that selling is still not over. From a technical perspective, banknifty has broken no support nor was looking dangerous. It just looked like a day where banknifty did not want to rally! HDFCBK and ICICIBANK were struggling to keep Nifty50 flat whereas INFY & TCS were pulling it to the top. Even nifty50 did not do anything technically today, although the first candle looked dangerous and had given the impression we will have a lower low today. The option prices on Nifty50 was again more volatile than Banknifty, I am starting to think which one has a higher beta these days. From an option seller's perspective it makes no sense in trading banknifty at these premium levels. BN spot is at 44000 and 45000 CE has a premium of Rs12 with 3 days to expiry. Usually I see a price of Rs12 for a strike 1000pts away on wednesday close, imagine the same value on a monday close. Nifty50 options premium even though low is far better than banknifty - there is enough juice to be squeezed. --- 15mts TF is still range bound, but we have a peak formation inside this range. The prices have hit the lower & upper end of the range multiple times now. This could indicate a range expansion soon!  --- 1hr shows a double top like pattern formed at the all time high zone. The pull back we had from ATH could be entirely technical due to positioning. We will wait for the lower end of the range to break to conclude if a new downward trend is starting or not. to view the 4 charts in discussion today, visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Short Finance Nifty from here|Intraday and Hero & zero TradeMarket looks bearish from here, i have already uploaded view on nifty and banknifty, but now i am updating on finance nifty. There could be a trade for downside, Chances are high we can go towards 19300 levels. So if anyone wants to go short can go with by trading future or option. I have some trades. If anyone wants to go in trade can go with given levels on charts. Naked Option buying:- Buy Finance nifty 19400 Put option at 42 now. keep stop loss at 25 Target we can see 75/85/115+ For option writing:- Sale finance nifty 19350 Ce at 80 now. keep stop loss 135 hedge with finance nifty 19450 Ce at 25. Please follow strict stop loss in it. Please like and follow if you like my work. Thankyou.
NSE:CNXFINANCEShort
by TraderRahulPal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 09 JUN 2023Banknifty was fighting hard to stay in green, Nifty50 on the other hand was vulnerable to fall. Another day went by wherein Nifty was proving to be more volatile than banknifty.  Percentage wise both banknifty and nifty fell around 0.5% between 12.30 to 14.30 but the perceived fall for nifty50 was higher as the prevailing price action gave it more momentum. Banknifty on the other hand showed a flattish pattern and ended the day just 0.01% down vs nifty 0.38% down. The option premiums were dragging for both banknifty as well as nifty earlier in the day. This was mainly because of no directional trend getting established. If you observe closely, banknifty went below yesterday's close only for short intervals. I am not quite clear why and how banknifty managed to hold on today when NiftyIT, Reliance, ITC, HINDUNILVR were dragging. I thought the fall in Nifty was purely technical, but banknifty not participating - keeps my doubts unanswered. --- 15mts TF showing no emotions as of now, the chart looking flattish with no particular bias. Banknifty unable to take out the 44068 resistance today might be something the bears could be cheering about. --- 1hr TF is still upward looking and no downside threats so far. The next support is 725+ points away and any inclination to close that gap will send the options premium spiking. Even after a 70+ point fall in Nifty50 today, the India VIX was still not rising. And at 11.12% its trading near the lowest levels. Option sellers might be facing a tough time to find high probability trades in a falling VIX environment. Even option buyers will not be rewarded unless their direction is accurate & there is a quick movement. And its expected - when markets are near all time highs, the volatility should be near all time lows.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 08 JUN 2023A good day to take out the support zone of 44068 - was it an over-reaction to the RBI rate decision today? Lets analyze. RBI MPC decided to keep the repo rates unchanged at 6.5% and continue its withdrawal of accommodative stance. Logically no major changes w.r.t last policy day. Handful of participants including me were expecting RBI to hike the rates so that the nail on the inflation coffin can be hit. The reluctance to hike rates and just a 10bps cut on the next fiscal inflation has lot of meaning. for FY23–24 inflation target has been revised to 5.1% from 5.2% - what this really means is the inflation is not going to come down even in the next year. And not hiking the rates will add oil to the fire. Had there been a rate hike, we could have assumed a steeper inflation fall trajectory & then a rate decrease to boost demand. As it stands RBI will have its hands tied next fiscal also not to cut the rates as inflation is only expected to come down 0.1%. And also election is around the corner, unless the Govt. slash the fuel rates - the perceived goods price hike will only keep going up. The central bank has decided to have a bleak looking tomorrow for the comfort of today. More worries will add up when the Rs2000 currency notes comes back to the banking system. Monetary assets will again appreciate in value with no real perceived changes. --- Banknifty weekly analysis Over the last week 01 Jun to 08 Jun, banknifty has fallen on 0.32% ~ 140pts. Its not really too much, imagine we fell 530pts from the HOD to LOD today. So on a weekly basis banknifty is still continuing to exhibit stability. --- Today's analysis We had an inline start and then a rally of 249pts till 10.55. RBI Governor speech was from 10.00 AM - so the initial market reaction was positive - but there was no outperformance. Nifty50's chart showed more meaning today, because the reversal came right at the resistance level for it. Since banknifty has no more resistances - it was tougher to trade today. In fact it was Nifty50 which started falling first and then the banknifty caught up to it. NiftyIT was weak early in the day itself. In total banknifty fell 533pts from the HOD to LOD breaking the support of 44068 on its way. There was a recovery from 13.40 to 13.55 which lured me to close the PUT position (that went jackpot). --- 15mts TF - things were looking flavorless until the support break came today. The chart is still emotionless - there is no threat of bearishness if 43600 is not taken out tomorrow. --- 1hr TF has brought back the importance to the 44068 SR zone. There has been multiple touch-and-go instances in the recent past. Still we need a close below 43253 till we have a change in bias to view all 6 charts of today, visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 07 JUN 2023 Banknifty was looking weaker compared to Nifty50 today, finally the day ended in green with a W pattern on 5mts TF. Although we started today with a gap-up, the index was bleeding. Banknifty fell underwater by 10.40 - meanwhile Nifty50 was surging supported mainly by NiftyIT which came back strong after yesterday's trashing. There was no strong downside momentum for banknifty, but the index was just weaker not having enough in it to rally as well. It was easy to tell that we will not have a big fall today looking at the options premium. Banknifty options had a lower implied volatility than Nifty50 thereby translating into cheaper option prices on BN. After 13.40 there was a huge buying momentum on Nifty50 mainly aided by Reliance, TCS and then the bank stocks also caught-up. Nifty50 went up 0.4% in the last 2 hours today pulling up banknifty above water and finally giving it gains of 0.25%. Nifty on the other hand closed 0.68% --- 15mts TF still shows banknifty in a range bound trade, we might need a range expansion trade day to exit this deadlock. If the momentum of Nifty50 is considered, then banknifty has higher chances to break upwards. --- 1hr TF shows banknifty trying to build up the momentum to go upwards. Still not clear why we had a drop on 31 May, there is no continuation of negative bias/event/triggers that could take banknifty further lower. All eyes will be on the interest rate decision by the RBI Monetary Policy Committee. Almost all the market participants are expecting a continuation of rate-pause (i.e. current interest rate of 6.5% will continue). I personally feel we might see a hike of 25bps to 6.75%. The main reason being the inability by the banks to stop the loan growth. Liquidity is still abundant in the system which will cast a shadow on "Inflation" by not cutting demand. Inflation which has cooled off, will not need that much of a time to rebound. If RBI is not deciding to hike the interest rate, they need to seriously consider bring down the liquidity. Withdrawal of accommodative stance has to be changed to "Withdrawal stance". I still think RBI has to be equally hawkish as the US & Europe central banks.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 30 MAY 2023 FinNiftyYesterday's high of 44483.35 broken today, the new ATH is now 44498.6 thanks to the last 2 5mts candles of today. Banknifty is now in some real good form - not planning to retire any time soon. Would have got some inspiration from MSD from the IPL 2023. The opening was not that exciting, we even fell in the first 5mts to hit an intraday low of 44207.5. But again no intention to hit the first support at 44068. From there the price action was flattish.  In the opening minutes, I felt Nifty50 to be more promising of a bull run today vs banknifty looking at the options data and the credit spreads getting written at PE. But Nifty's momentum faded out after 10.15, nevertheless it also ended the day in green but just ~ 250+ points to reclaim the ATH. The run in Indian stock markets has been nothing short of surprising, even with the currency devaluation our markets has continued to outshine for the domestic investors. I am really worried about the foreign investors - are their Indian portfolios still in green? --- 15mts TF shows strength today as the gap up of yesterday's was not broken. The momentum is favoring the bulls. As long as the gap-up level holds the bulls will continue to keep their position alive as it will be in profit. If there is a deeper cut, these bulls should run for cover creating a small fall even lower than the recent swing low. For that to happen we need some news/event trigger because as it stands now - its euphoria. --- 1hr TF also shows strength, same reason - the gap being untested. Also the 5 candles of consistent green today - something you dont expect after a big rise. Might be the news of ATH getting taken out would have hit the media and new participants would have entered the markets (the volume does not say so) --- FinNifty expiry Special CNXFINANCE also hit a new ATH today 19636.9. The rally of 117pts coming after 14.00. Of which 60% of the pts coming after 15.05. Market makers & Big Boys have a new system to rally or break the markets after 14.30 these days causing minimal impact to the options premium. But one exception would be the 19600 CE Finnifty that went up a whopping 2835% between 15.05 to 15.10. Price wise a rise from 0.5 rupees to 14.85 rupees. Finally it settled at 6 rupees. Again a perfect example of how options trading can reward the knowledgeable and the person who acts on that. to see all 6 charts of today visit viswaram. com
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
Buy Bank NIfty for the target of 44750+Indian market and all the global market looking positive today. Indian Banking Sector roaring today, Bank nifty has given a breakout and hit all time high today, Price and action showing a sharp move towards 45k+ in bank nifty. Right now Banknifty trading at 44365 and this is the best entry for go long for the target of 44750+,,so buy from here and go for the target levels which i have mention on chart. i have a option writing trade for the entire week. Sale Banknifty 1st june 44400 PE at 250 now and hedge with Buy Bank Nifty 1st june 43900 PE at 90 now Maximum profit we can get in this trade per lot 3988 rs. keep in mind if you see 4000 loss in this trade please exit your 44400 PE position that will be only your stop loss, So risk and reward in trade will be 1:1,,Please hold this trade till expiry or when you see profit 3000+ per lot you can start booking your profits; Chances of profit is very high as banknifty has given a breakout. If anyone wants to go naked option i have trade for them also:- Buy 1st june Banknifty 44200 CE at 348 keep stop loss at 218 Target we can see in above 450/530/650+ Please follow strict stop loss in naked option. If you guy's like my work then please hit the like button and follow for the next update. And please comment your thoughts on this trade. Thankyou. Disclaimer:- Always consult with your financial advisor before taking any decision of buying sailing or do your own analyse.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by TraderRahulPal
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 25 MAY 2023 expiryThose who trade banknifty & nifty expiry will be excited to trade bankex & sensex expiry on 26 May 2023. I guess it will be the first expiry to be opened to retail traders ! I just checked the zerodha kite app, the option chain is still not integrated it seems, also the weightage of bank stocks of banknifty (NSE) is not same as bankex (BSE) - so request you to monitor the accurate component stocks before making a wrong decision. --- Weekly Analysis From 18th to 25th of May 2023, banknifty has dropped only 89pts ~ 0.2%. Traders who had taken weekly short straddles or short iron fly would have been highly benefited. Banknifty is able to hold its ground very well. After 11th May, it has not even fallen back to its first legitimate support level of 43253. Thats where we need to credit the bulls. I strongly felt we might breach support today, but the 14.15 hourly candle (+181pts) really surprised me. --- Today's analysis We opened inline and fell in the perfect slope as per the momentum set yesterday. There was no surge in volatility or abrupt moves, the fall was linear, steady and slow. At 11.30 there was a brief recovery till 12.20. The fall after that from 43601 to 43390 was looking like a possible candidate for further follow-up selling. Unfortunately that did not come and instead we had a reversal of 323pts that helped banknifty close the day with no loss. We have been seeing the 14.30 to close moves on all expiry days, it seems its very easy for the big boys to play out their strategy late in the day. The option premiums are unaffected as the decay has eaten into all the juice and just the near ATM strikes are all that matters. The real moves only if it comes early in the day will set a directional trend. Since we have expiries very often now, its quite possible to get the results with very little disruption. Although its good for option sellers in the short term - what it does is reduce the premiums in the long run. --- 15mts chart is the perfect range bound flattish pattern. There was a brief period when we just broke down from the usual range. Due to this break, I was assuming we will have more downward momentum. Only to have ended the day with worthless PUTS. --- 1hr has formed an odd shaped triple top, due the the awkwardness of this shape - I am not even pretty sure if it will work or not. This is formed near the ATH. Again the value of something bigger happening is highly dependent on the support levels of 43253 getting broken. As long as that level remain intact - whatever pattern that gets formed will not count.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 24 MAY 2023So we have some good news from one of the broker. Zerodha has enabled SENSEX & BANKEX futures & options trade. Those options expire every fridays. Most likely other brokers also will follow suit. So if you plan properly you get an expiry day-trade set up on  Tuesdays - FinNifty Wednesday - MidCapSelect Nifty (Poor liquidity) Thursday - Nifty50 & BankNifty Friday - Sensex & Bankex The biggest advantage I see is that you can try your option strategies 4 out of 5 days without taking positions overnight. This will help people who are wishing to become a full time trader! --- BankNifty had a down day today, fell more than Nifty comparatively. But not enough as we all anticipated. Yesterday US markets fell - SPX -1.12%, NDQ -1.2%. Other Asian and European markets also had big cuts, and our markets were still holding its ground.  Till 11.25 Nifty was rallying not falling - how is that for a change? The options data on Nifty was showing more upside potential, but we really hit a dead-end by 11.30. BankNifty options on the other hand was not as volatile as nifty, I was finding it difficult to gauge the direction from the options flow today. Only after 11.30, I came to know that banknifty is starting to reverse. Even then it did not spook the options premium. The PE premiums were well within its normal wednesday range, there was no unusual spike. The bulls in India were not worried with a global meltdown? I am starting to think the bulls here are too stubborn, they may dig themselves an early grave. --- 15mts shows the trading range converging, but no bias change as of now. Unless the support of 43253 is broken there will not be momentum. And you all know there is no resistance - so its an easy journey upwards. A small trigger/news/event will do to conquer new heights. --- 1hr shows the wedge formation quite decently. When the range converges, what follows is a quick expansion. Guessing the direction is not that easy because we are near all time highs. --- 2 days back we discussed how nifty broke the head & shoulders pattern to trade higher. What has formed today is a classic double top (M pattern). It has a higher weightage because the rejection is right at the resistance level of 18419.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 23 MAY 2023 FINNIFTYToday's price action on the 3 indices NSE:NIFTY , NSE:BANKNIFTY and NSE:CNXFINANCE were conflicting due to which none of them really went anywhere. NiftyIT had a down day that doused the fire in Nifty50 to break-through the resistance of 18419. Similarly Finnifty was unable to get past 19421. From the start there was huge shorting on banknifty on CE side which may have set the tone for the day. Nifty50 started gap-up and had gone to the resistance level by 10.15, but the shorting on bank & financials limited Nifty's gains. Banknifty also opened gap-up at 43978 and there was a move upwards, something that we can expect with how the day closed yesterday. This momentum faded out at the 44080 levels and from there BN was not going anywhere. There was a fall of 243pts between 14.25 & close. Nothing major to complain, but we all know why the last 1hr move today does not mean anything. Yes, it was finnifty expiry day. The big-boys knew this at the open itself, I got to know the shorting intensity after 1hr of open. A little bit of that was due to the Finnifty expiry - which we will discuss separately today. --- 15mts TF shows range bound move ahead, it did not show the shorting intensity, neither can we make out from the chart pattern so far. The bias has not changed to bearish mode, it will only if the 43253 support is broken. Do the shorts have enough strength to bring BN down to that levels - we will get to know by tomorrow. --- 1hr is still showing a converging chart pattern, just a continuation from yesterday. There is no change in bias as of now. --- Finnifty Expiry special Finnifty was the weaker among the 3 indices - Nifty, BankNifty & Finnifty. That was obvious as the expiry day traders would want the market to expire near previous close as much as possible. This will give them max gains for straddles. When Nifty50 was racing ahead, finnifty stayed quite flat. It was trading around the 19421 Support/Resistance zone but did not have any momentum to push it either way. The last 1 hr session was different from the rest of the day, we had a drop of 0.56% ~ 108pts to ensure Finnifty expires as flat as possible (0.06% gains). Also after 14.30 the premiums of both CE and PE were almost dead which made perfect sense for a small directional move. The option sellers would not have been hurt so much.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram