Sep21-W5: Nifty momentum forewarns of a correction (Sep27 to OctExactly as written last week, Nifty did remain below 5 EMA for initial couple of days but resumed its uptrend subsequently. The reversal till 15 EMA did not happen.
Even though Nifty is galloping ahead, the momentum indicators are exhausted now. There remain 3 parallel channels on my chart. The blue and green channels may only act as resistance from here on. Eventually, Nifty should settle somewhere near the middle of black channel. This can happen either during coming week or next week.
Scenarios for the week ahead (highlighted as yellow box with red and green lines dissecting scenarios)…
Consolidation - Between 18150 and 17700
Downtrend - If breach below 17700; to drop somewhere till 17250
Uptrend - If breach above 18150; to rise somewhere till 18450
Metals, steel and realty have been booming these days. I wonder if this is a good time to exit equity and invest in real estate?
DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered adviser. All the information provided on this website is for educational / informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice.
Optionstrading
How to place a logical stop-loss in Options?In general, a logical stop loss varies from one situation to another.
Some of the logical stop losses can be:
1. Swing high/low
2. Low of the Hammer/Inverted hammer
3. High of the Shooting star/Hanging man
4. Low of the demand zone
5. High of the supply zone
If you are trading in options, broadly there are 2 ways to set a stop loss. There are:
1. Place the SL using the spot chart
2. Place the SL using the Options chart
Explanation:
1. If you place a stop loss using the spot chart, then you don't have to see the Options chart. But you won't be able to calculate exact loss beforehand because the movement of spot vs options is not linear and depends on Option Greeks. This is a simpler method since you just have to see a single chart. Just enter and exit the trade using the spot chart only.
2. If you place the stop loss using the Options chart, you will be able to calculate the exact loss beforehand. For checking the options chart, you will have to use your broker's terminal or use some paid third-party site. Tradingview doesn't provide option charts. This method is a bit difficult as compared to the first method. The steps that you need to follow are:
a> Check the spot chart.
b> Execute your buy/sell order.
c> Notice the logical stop loss in the spot chart
d> Check the same SL in the options chart
4. Now open the options chart of the option that you bought/sold.
5. See the relative position of the stop loss in the options chart. (Whatever SL that you selected in the spot chart in step 3, select that same SL but now in options chart.)
In the above case, suppose you Shorted Nifty. So, you can either buy a PUT option or sell a CALL option. The stop loss in both cases is as follows:
If you buy a PUT option:
If you sell a CALL option:
6. Now that you have chosen your stop loss, just place your stop-loss order. That's it, you are done.
Read the post a few times and you will be able to understand the process. Don't complicate things. I hope you find this post useful. Also, if anyone is interested in getting a PDF version of this thread, then you can message me, I'll provide it.
Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Indices Go All Over, Yet End Almost Jaise TheNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -09-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17312.85 / 17379.65 / 17302.7 / 17369.25
H-L = 77 points
VIX 13.94 / -3.26%
FII DII: +1127 Crores
Likely open: From the above, it looks like a flat to positive open but what may happen in the world markets tomorrow
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
A gap-down open was immediately bought into and NIFTY attempted to take out the closing high of yesterday and then gradually sold off.
It was a choppy day for the index being the expiry day as there were many tussles between the big heads. The range for the day was only 77 points.
NIFTY ended the day in mild green and also held 17300 levels as the low for the day was 17302. Some consolation from yesterday.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
NESTLE 14
BAJAJ FINSERV 07
BHARTI AIRTEL 07
TCS 04
GRASIM 03
TOTAL 35
The Laggards
SBI LIFE 11
HDFC BANK 08
RELIANCE 05
BAJAJ FINANCE 05
TITAN 04
TOTAL 33
Lifter - Draggers = +02
POSITIVES
NIFTY ended the day in the mild green.
NIFTY ended the week at a new ATH though it does not appear to be decisive.
NIFTY did not break 17300 on an intraday basis.
FIIs DIIs have together bought in excess of 1000 Crores.
NEGATIVES
NIFTY could not go anywhere near 17400.
BANK NIFTY range was just less than 300 points which were evident from the choppy movements and it ended in the red below 36700.
The leaders lack momentum and traction. KOTAK BANK appeared strong at the open but by EOD, it has closed on the 200 DMA line - fence-sitting as usual.
TRADING RANGE FOR W/B 13-09-21
17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY.
BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
There were 3 spells on the 5-minute chart of BANK NIFTY that seemed to have been triggered by Algos. These occurred in the candle starting from 1305, 1435, and 1455. The range was more or less similar but the pact varied.
I observed this as I had my trades on and just as I thought I may have to exit the trade at a loss, it spiked and my trade was still in play. The 1455 candle and the one that followed it were game-changers.
I was waiting for a dip before 1500h and had kept 36500 CE ready to hit Buy. The premium plummeted and was down 40+ points to 92. As I opened the window and was about to hit the Buy button, I saw that it was back at 132. The point where I had thought of exiting! And then it kept spiking!
And in the final 10 minutes, it appeared to be an open secret that the expiry will be below 36700 as the index went above 36700 and immediately dipped and that sealed the fortunes of 36700 CE writers in green.
The above series of events makes me wonder if the expiry drama is all staged by those who have the muscle power. From a low of 92 on that candle of 1455-1500, it added 90 more points in premium and the Option expired at 182 .
Another interesting thing on the BANK NIFTY chart of 5 minutes chart is the W pattern - is this on account of psychology or algology?
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
09-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
BN Iron CondorFollowing trade is for educational purposes only. An Iron Condor is an option strategy, where the expected outcome for next week is range-bound.
A CE option mentioned below is a European Call Option, while a PE option is a European Put.
A hedger always buys these options and a speculator mostly sells one.
But when the speculator only sells these options, the risk involved is unlimited and the margin requirement is also high. This is called naked option selling. When both CE and PE are sold, it is called a short straddle.
In combination with this, if we buy much farther CE and PE, the short straddle becomes an Iron condor. Here, the idea is to capture the option premium in a range-bound market with reduced risk and margin compared to short straddle.
The spread between buy and sell leg is based on optimum use of margin. Since the option premium is credited to us in advance, it is also a credit spread.
Please leave a comment if you need further clarification on the following trade
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Buy 35600PE, Sell 36200PE
Buy 38600CE, Sell 38000CE
The history of trades of this trade model is in the following link:
docs.google.com
My concept of trading is not to be an overnight millionaire, but a disciplined method to grow the wealth that you own.
Please leave a like if you like the trade ideas :)
BN Vertical Put Credit spreadFollowing trade is for educational purposes only. An Iron Condor is an option strategy, where the expected outcome for next week is range-bound.
A CE option mentioned below is a European Call Option, while a PE option is a European Put.
A hedger always buys these options and a speculator mostly sells one.
But when the speculator only sells these options, the risk involved is unlimited and the margin requirement is also high. This is called naked option selling. When both CE and PE are sold, it is called a short strangle.
In combination with this, if we buy much farther CE and PE, the short strangle becomes an Iron condor. Here, the idea is to capture the option premium in a range-bound market with reduced risk and margin compared to short straddle.
The spread between buy and call leg is based on optimum use of margin. Since the option premium is credited to us in advance, it is also a credit spread.
Since this week the view is bullish , we are taking only the PE leg of Iron Condor. As the week progresses, additional trade may be added.
Please leave a comment if you need further clarification on the following trade
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Buy 34700PE, Sell 35300PE
The history of trades of this trade model is in the following link:
docs.google.com
My concept of trading is not to be an overnight millionaire, but a disciplined method to grow the wealth that you own.
Please leave a like if you like the trade ideas :)
And thank you for the DMs. I am fine, was just preoccupied with some personal errands :)
BN Vertical Call Credit SpreadFollowing trade is for educational purposes only. An Iron Condor is an option strategy, where the expected outcome for next week is range-bound.
A CE option mentioned below is a European Call Option, while a PE option is a European Put.
A hedger always buys these options and a speculator mostly sells one.
But when the speculator only sells these options, the risk involved is unlimited and the margin requirement is also high. This is called naked option selling. When both CE and PE are sold, it is called a short strangle.
In combination with this, if we buy much farther CE and PE, the short strangle becomes an Iron condor. Here, the idea is to capture the option premium in a range-bound market with reduced risk and margin compared to short straddle.
The spread between buy and call leg is based on optimum use of margin. Since the option premium is credited to us in advance, it is also a credit spread.
Since this week the view is bearish , we are taking only the CE leg of Iron Condor. As the week progresses, additional trade may be added.
Please leave a comment if you need further clarification on the following trade
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sell 36800CE, Buy 37400CE
The history of trades of this trade model is in the following link:
docs.google.com
My concept of trading is not to be an overnight millionaire, but a disciplined method to grow the wealth that you own.
Please leave a like if you like the trade ideas :)
BN Vertical Call Credit SpreadFollowing trade is for educational purposes only. An Iron Condor is an option strategy, where the expected outcome for next week is range-bound.
A CE option mentioned below is a European Call Option, while a PE option is a European Put.
A hedger always buys these options and a speculator mostly sells one.
But when the speculator only sells these options, the risk involved is unlimited and the margin requirement is also high. This is called naked option selling. When both CE and PE are sold, it is called a short strangle.
In combination with this, if we buy much farther CE and PE, the short strangle becomes an Iron condor. Here, the idea is to capture the option premium in a range-bound market with reduced risk and margin compared to short straddle.
The spread between buy and call leg is based on optimum use of margin. Since the option premium is credited to us in advance, it is also a credit spread.
Since this week the view is bearish , we are taking only the CE leg of Iron Condor. As the week progresses, additional trade may be added.
Please leave a comment if you need further clarification on the following trade
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sell 35500CE, Buy 36100CE
The history of trades of this trade model is in the following link:
docs.google.com
My concept of trading is not to be an overnight millionaire, but a disciplined method to grow the wealth that you own.
Please leave a like if you like the trade ideas :)
NIfty BreakdownNifty 50 is not looking good as per option chain data there is heavy writing on 15900 on call side but put side is considerably weak. So keep your puts ready as most probably the nifty 50 can go down after this consolidation..
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*Disclaimer*- This is just an analysis of the data on the basis of technical factors such as chart patterns, candlestick patterns, trend line , option chain data, etc,. Stock Market or Trading in any type of market is subject to high financial risk. You should see this idea as just an analysis. You are not obliged to follow my instructions. You will be responsible for all types gains or loses in the market.
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BN Vertical Call Credit SpreadFollowing trade is for educational purposes only. An Iron Condor is an option strategy, where the expected outcome for next week is range-bound.
A CE option mentioned below is a European Call Option, while a PE option is a European Put.
A hedger always buys these options and a speculator mostly sells one.
But when the speculator only sells these options, the risk involved is unlimited and the margin requirement is also high. This is called naked option selling. When both CE and PE are sold, it is called a short strangle.
In combination with this, if we buy much farther CE and PE, the short strangle becomes an Iron condor. Here, the idea is to capture the option premium in a range-bound market with reduced risk and margin compared to short straddle.
The spread between buy and call leg is based on optimum use of margin. Since the option premium is credited to us in advance, it is also a credit spread.
Since this week the view is bearish , we are taking only the CE leg of Iron Condor. As the week progresses, additional trade may be added.
Please leave a comment if you need further clarification on the following trade
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sell 35700CE, Buy 36300CE
The history of trades of this trade model is in the following link:
docs.google.com
My concept of trading is not to be an overnight millionaire, but a disciplined method to grow the wealth that you own.
Please leave a like if you like the trade ideas :)
BANK NIFTY (NIFTY BANK) Option trading analysis for 14 July 2021IMPORTANT NOTE: Trade in 5 Min and 15 Min Time frame, the TradingView is not allowing to post in the smaller time frame and I'm not interested to buy premium plan so please trade as per given time frame and level and targets Thanks.
Bank Nifty trade analysis and level targets
BUY Above 35848 if the level breaks
and wait for price action to enter
in the trade then wait for targets 1 (35943), and target 2 (36108).
SELL BELOW 35665,
And wait for targets 1, (35542) and 2 (35380)
DISCLAIMER:- I Am Not SEBI Registered Analyst or financial adviser.
All Post and Levels Posting Only For learning Purpose. Not Giving Any Recommendations For Trade. I'm Not Responsible For Your Any Kind Of Loss Or Profit. Before trading please consult with your financial advisor.
No Claim, All Rights Reserved.‼️
Bank Nifty 13-7-2021Bank Nifty is looking quite bullish as Nifty 50 is also bullish but one thing that you should remember is that the Bank Nifty is considerably weak then Nifty 50. So you can expect a bullish view tomorrow. A gap up is expected because
1. There can be a break out due to ascending chart pattern that I analyzed in previous analysis. So keep an eye out their.
2. After analyzing the option chain we saw that the call writers exited their shorts in huge and amount and their is a short buildup heavily on the bullish or put side.
3. The PCR is 1.18 which is slightly overbought this is one of the reason why Bank Nifty is weak than Nifty 50.
4. The Bank nifty has gave a great closing of above the dangerous level of 35500 which is quite a bullish sign.
Now, the major(Yellow) and immediate(Blue) supports and resistance zones are give below. You can have a bullish view for tomorrow.
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*Disclaimer*- This is just an analysis of the data on the basis of technical factors such as chart patterns, candlestick patterns, trend line , option chain data, etc,. Stock Market or Trading in any type of market is subject to high financial risk. You should see this idea as just an analysis. You are not obliged to follow my instructions. You will be responsible for all types gains or loses in the market.
Can Banknifty reach its all time high level this month? NSE:BANKNIFTY
According Fibonacci retracement n Elliotte Wave theory i think if banknifty if hold its position above 35364 which is fib golden ratio level 0.618 then we ll able to see next target which is 36110 which is next fib level 0.786 and might this month july expiry we ll see banknifty at previous all time high again. if you observed its reversed just from fib retracement golden ratio level of 0.5 which is signal for me as bullish reversal.
in any coming day if it close below 34348 level then it may fall upto around 33900-33500 .
This analysis is my personal view n its for educational purpose only. So don't just trade based on this ,consult your financial advisor before taking any trade n trade on your own risk.
BN Vertical Put Credit spreadFollowing trade is for educational purposes only. An Iron Condor is an option strategy, where the expected outcome for next week is range-bound.
A CE option mentioned below is a European Call Option, while a PE option is a European Put.
A hedger always buys these options and a speculator mostly sells one.
But when the speculator only sells these options, the risk involved is unlimited and the margin requirement is also high. This is called naked option selling. When both CE and PE are sold, it is called a short strangle.
In combination with this, if we buy much farther CE and PE, the short strangle becomes an Iron condor. Here, the idea is to capture the option premium in a range-bound market with reduced risk and margin compared to short straddle.
The spread between buy and call leg is based on optimum use of margin. Since the option premium is credited to us in advance, it is also a credit spread.
Since this week the view is bullish, we are taking only the PE leg of Iron Condor. As the week progresses, additional trade may be added.
Please leave a comment if you need further clarification on the following trade
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Sell 34100PE, Buy 33500PE
The history of trades of this trade model is in the following link:
docs.google.com
My concept of trading is not to be an overnight millionaire, but a disciplined method to grow the wealth that you own.
Please leave a like if you like the trade ideas :)
BN Vertical Call Credit SpreadFollowing trade is for educational purposes only. An Iron Condor is an option strategy, where the expected outcome for next week is range-bound.
A CE option mentioned below is a European Call Option, while a PE option is a European Put.
A hedger always buys these options and a speculator mostly sells one.
But when the speculator only sells these options, the risk involved is unlimited and the margin requirement is also high. This is called naked option selling. When both CE and PE are sold, it is called a short straddle.
In combination with this, if we buy much farther CE and PE, the short straddle becomes an Iron condor. Here, the idea is to capture the option premium in a range-bound market with reduced risk and margin compared to short straddle.
The spread between buy and call leg is based on optimum use of margin. Since the option premium is credited to us in advance, it is also a credit spread.
Since this week the view is bearish, we are taking only the CE leg of Iron Condor. As the week progresses, additional trade may be added.
Please leave a comment if you need further clarification on the following trade
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Sell 36300E, Buy 36900CE
The history of trades of this trade model is in the following link:
docs.google.com
My concept of trading is not to be an overnight millionaire, but a disciplined method to grow the wealth that you own.
Please leave a like if you like the trade ideas :)
BANKNIFTY MAY TREND ANALYSISAfter trading within the Head and Shoulder pattern, the Bank Nifty finally gave a good breakout above our resistance line and traded 1200+ points up with very minimum resistance today.
The technical analysis shows a clear bull run from here till 37000 with internal corrections and Targets/Resistance given in the chart. Once the BANKNIFTY crosses the target, the respective target becomes immediate support to the same.
On the Bearish side if BANKNIFTY starts trading below 32350 then we can again see a Bearish move which I am highly not in the belief of.
The MACD is still showing a buying momentum and with reducing cases of COVID in India the markets seems to be ready for a Bull-run again.
You can always do back testings on Day/Week/5min charts as per your experience and track the Bank results to have a stronger view before taking any trade.
This is just my personal study and analysis. Do not trade on the basis of just my study. Do your own research as well.
Reference to my previous idea is in link below.
BANKNIFTY ON 15 mins chart Banknifty is getting weaker every time it tries to touch 200 ma. Before closing of the day, BNF tried to break MA but couldn’t sustain. Based on price action we can analyze that there’s a breakout of a trendline but it’s fake because we have 200 ma just above the current price. Also we have a good Fibonacci 38.2% level that can act as a reversal. So looking at ever data available we think BANKNIFTY maybe end in RANGE MARKET between 33500- 34500. Tomorrow by opening if BANKNIFTY opens above 200 MA look for long positions but if BNF sustains below 200 ma , one should look for hedging or short position.