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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 11 APR 2023 Banknifty had a mega pre-open boost by NSE:KOTAKBANK , it was up 5% by 09.10 which indicated the bears will get their bones crushed today. Contrary to the popular belief, Kotak bank has the 3rd most weightage to bank nifty above SBIN and NSE:AXISBANK even though kotak has lower net interest income. And today's 5% gap up due to the MSCI news spelled real trouble. Bank nifty opened gap up at 41232 and had a massive 1st 5mts candle. There was a price swing of 297pts in the opening 5mts. What it created was a break away gap negating the downward sloping pattern from 6th. The jump in volumes also proved we had a sentiment shift too. Was the MSCI news a big trigger - I do not think so, but it really helped the bulls breakout from the bearish grip. Also it would have spoiled few CE seller's Finnifty expiry. There was also a healthy rally to take out the resistance at 41311, NSE:ICICIBANK , NSE:SBIN all helped to close bank nifty with a lead of 531pts. --- 15mts is showing the break out quite decently. And this is formed above the channel top line which will give it good momentum. Yesterday we discussed the possibility that the bears may want to take control and bring NSE:BANKNIFTY to the range - well, that is not going to happen very soon. The last time we had a breakaway ie on 31 Mar 2023, the volume spiked. Today also the volume was considerably higher than usual. And also note, the stock market is heavily skewed in favor of bulls. Everybody like to make money and push prices up. Only few people like me prefer to find contrarian trends - mostly on the bearish side. --- 1hr is showing the trend channel breakout quite clearly. See the break away from the purple downward sloping line. Till yesterday we had a hope to get trades below 40700 levels and stay in the bearish medium-term trend. The only hope for bears now is to watch out for the US CPI data tomorrow. A massive sell off could bring back NSE:BANKNIFTY back to realistic levels of 40700 or lower. --- I will also be covering Finnifty charts on Tuesdays wherein we have the weekly expiry NSE:CNXFINANCE has a similar chart to bank nifty, that makes it quite interesting to take expiry trades just as we do on Thursdays. The W pattern indicated in blue highlight was formed in the same similar fashion. Today's trade happened above the recent swing high ie from 06 Mar 2023, this again is a breakout style of trade. Just as when NSE:BANKNIFTY falls below the 40700 levels, we can expect finnifty to fall below the 18246 SR zone and continue its range trade. But if that does not happen soon, then the only way we can look is to handle the bullish momentum.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 06 APR 2023 ExpiryYesterday we discussed in detail the RBI MPC possibilities. If you read the article - I was expecting a hike. Surprisingly RBI maintained status quo today. Even when the inflation is at the elevated level a pause in rate hike should not be taken very lightly. An optimist would say it is an excellent decision that RBI is offering some breathing space for the financial markets. But a pessimist will see the decision today as an evident threat to the banks & lenders. In his speech RBI Governor emphasised how the global financial institutions became victim to the rate hikes carried out in advanced economies without naming SVB, Credit Suisse. If we apply the same logic here, it means the banks in our country may be having immense pressure coping up with the NPAs and issue of new loans. They may be at the verge of a breakdown that RBI decided to give them time to recoup. Inflation might have got a free hand here to run a little loose for now. It will be interesting to see how RBI reacts the next quarter. The upcoming summer season, rise in power/electricity utilization, depletion of coal reserves, less than normal monsoon are all parameters RBI takes into consideration along with the projections for crude oil. Download the RBI monetary policy report click here. --- Coming back to our NSE:BANKNIFTY analysis for today. We discussed the possibility of a pull back to the range level which should encourage the bears. Well that came early in the day. I must say we were on track to break the crucial 40880 support & the RBI surprise played spoilsport. Just after the declaration, banknifty jumped 321pts ~ 0.79% to break away from the support level. This ensured the 41500 CE which was just 700pts away from ATM spike 293%. i.e a surge of 18pts. 41000 CE went in the money and surged 208% ~ 151pts in the same time. I wanted to bring to your attention percentage wise 41500 CE gave a higher ROI vs 41000. Whereas 42000 CE did not even go past 93%. Just so that you know how to find the sweet spot ! By 11.10 the momentum faded and we started falling, and we were trading slightly negative between 13.45 to 14.25 before closing flat. I cannot really say the reversal at 11.10 came from the resistance level of 41311 as NSE:BANKNIFTY did not reach there. Even after these events the OTM of call as well as puts were totally dead today. The premiums were very low ruining any chances of arbitrage opportunities as part of weekly expiry. So personally I had a losing day! --- 15mts TF looking strong and bullish. Since it's a holiday tomorrow we would need to wait till Monday to know the next move. If the global markets fall in the next 2 sessions, then we may have a gap down. If everything stays normal then NSE:BANKNIFTY would be rejoicing the resistances it has torn apart & would like to keep moving up. --- 1hr TF has formed the perfect W pattern which leaves us with a question - will bank nifty continue to break the bearish trend it started in 14 Dec 2022 ?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
#BANKNIFTY Short Term Positional View ( 1 - 3 months)#BANKNIFTY Short-Term Positional View ( 1 - 3 months):- Let me post what I see: a double zig-zag painful correction in the market, where positional buy is only above 42,000 levels (closing basis). People will get trapped on both sides and until and unless, you are ready to read this complex correction in a minute way, making money will be challenging in the coming 2 to 3 months of time. I prefer to trade lightly in the coming few months. Techno Funda on double zig-zag:- Double Zigzag Correction is a complex corrective wave pattern that appears in Elliott Wave Theory. It is a variation of the standard Zigzag correction that consists of two zigzag patterns separated by a complex correction in the opposite direction. The double zigzag correction can occur in both bullish and bearish markets and is considered a corrective wave that corrects the previous impulse wave. The Double Zigzag Correction is identified by the following characteristics: The correction consists of two zigzag patterns, labeled (W) and (Y). The zigzag patterns are separated by a complex correction labeled as (X). The correction ends with a final zigzag pattern, labeled as (Z). The (X) wave is usually longer and more complex than the (W) and (Y) waves. The (W) and (Y) waves are usually equal in length. The Double Zigzag Correction is a time-consuming correction that can take a long time to complete. It is usually seen in markets that are undergoing a strong trend reversal. The pattern is useful for traders who are looking for a countertrend trading opportunity, as the pattern provides a clear entry and exit point for trades. It is important to note that the Elliott Wave Theory is a highly subjective method of analysis, and the accuracy of any wave count is subject to interpretation. Therefore, traders should use caution when using the Elliott Wave Theory as a basis for trading decisions and should always use additional technical and fundamental analysis to confirm their trading decisions. Always trade what you see, not what you feel. Always enjoy trading and avoid trading when you are mentally disturbed. Regards, SG
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by subhagghosh
6
#BANKNIFTY - 21/03/23 MARKET VIEWBased on the current market activity and price action analysis, it appears that BANKNIFTY is exhibiting a strongly bullish trend as of March 21st, 2023. Throughout the day, buyers have been overwhelming the market, indicating a high demand for BANKNIFTY and a positive sentiment among traders. Given this market behavior, there may be a favorable long trade opportunity available within the range of 38950-39150, with a Target price of 39700 and a Stoploss at 38600. However, it is important to note that the decision to enter into any trade should be based on an individual's financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment strategy. Moreover, traders should always exercise caution and implement proper risk management techniques, such as setting stop-loss orders, to minimize potential losses. It is also important to continually monitor market conditions and adjust trading strategies as needed to ensure optimal performance.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by DamisInvestments
The Ultimate Rules for Options Day Trading SuccessNSE:BANKNIFTY Introduction If you want to be a successful options day trader, it's not just about having a good strategy. You also need to develop your expertise, seek guidance when needed, and be dedicated to your goals. To do this, you need to be disciplined and follow some options day trading rules. These rules can help you avoid common mistakes and take away the guesswork. Here are some rules that every options day trader should know and if you use them in a disciplined manner then they have been proven to help beginners become winning options day traders. Some important rules are :- Rule 1 Setting Realistic Goals for Options Day Trading One of the most important rules for success in options day trading is to have realistic expectations. Options trading is not a way to get rich quickly, but it can be a profitable career if you put in the time and effort to learn and master the craft. You need to be prepared for a learning curve and be willing to stick with it even when it gets tough. You should also expect losses, as no strategy can guarantee gains all the time. Good money and risk management can help minimize losses. Rule 2 Start Small to Grow Big When you're new to day trading options, it's important to be cautious. You're still learning about options trading and the financial market, so take your time. Don't rush into things, even if you're excited. Start by practicing with paper trading and then move on to smaller options positions. Gradually increase your positions as you become more familiar with day trading options. This approach helps you minimize your losses and develop a systematic method for entering positions. Rule 3 Know your limits You may be tempted to trade as much as possible to develop a winning monthly average but that strategy will have the opposite effect and land you with a losing average. Remember that every options trader needs careful consideration before that contract is set up. Never overtrade and tie up your Capital. Overtrading will make money for your broker not you. Rule 4 Get Prepared Mentally, Physically, and Emotionally for Options Trading To succeed in options day trading, you need to take care of your mental, physical, and emotional health. This means getting enough sleep, eating a healthy diet, exercising regularly, avoiding excessive alcohol and smoking, and reducing stress in your environment. These habits will help you stay alert and focused throughout the day. So, take the time to care for yourself and perform at your best every day. Rule 5 Do Your Homework Daily – Plan your day Before the market opens, study the financial environment and news to develop a daily trading plan. This is called pre-market preparation and it's essential to stay competitive and align your strategy with the day's conditions. Develop a pre-market checklist that includes evaluating support and resistance, checking the news, assessing volume and competition, determining safe exits for losing positions, and considering market seasonality. Rule 6 Analyse Your Daily Performance Track your options day trading performance daily to notice patterns in your profits and losses. This will help you understand why you're gaining or losing money and fine-tune your processes for maximum returns. Reviewing your daily performance will also help you make long-term decisions for your options day trading career. Rule 7 Pay Attention to Volatility Volatility is how likely the price will change over time in the financial market. It can be good or bad for an options day trader, depending on their goals and position. Many factors affect volatility, like the economy, world events, and news reports. Straddle and strangle strategies are helpful in volatile markets. There are three types of volatility: price, historical, and implied. Price is based on supply and demand, historical looks at past performance, and implied predicts future performance. Rule 8 Use Option Greeks Greeks are measures that help to determine an option's price sensitivity in relation to other factors. They are represented by letters from the Greek alphabet and are used in complex formulas to determine option pricing. Despite their complexity, Greeks can be calculated quickly and efficiently, allowing options day traders to use them to improve their trades for maximum profit. Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, Rho Learn about option greeks from here I hope you found this helpful. Please like and comment. Keep Learning, Happy Trading!
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by SANJAYPATIDAR_
4
Banknifty - finally price moves.Finally, bank nifty closes away from its 6-day closing price. So now what will be our analysis for tomorrow? Today after falling in 1st half, bank nifty was in a tight range in 2nd half. If the bank breaks the 41400 level we can target the previous day's high(PDH) i.e. 41660 level, and if the breaks the previous day's low(PDL) 41170 level, our target will be 41000 level as it is a psychological level. On the other hand, if it opens, above the 41400 level, PDH will act as resistance, and below the 41170 level, the market will most probably sideways. Note - I'm not sebi registered, this is only for educational purposes. Do your own analysis first.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by Garvit_Narang
Nifty down - India vix high So from last week india vix was below 13, which means option prices were not moving due to the low of india vix. So today nifty fall and after falling it was in a tight range of 70 points between 17800 and 17720 levels. We can expect a trending move as well as a range-bound market. So if it opens in a 70 points range and breaks the 17800 level we can expect the previous day's high (PDH) target i.e. 17880 level and if breaks the level of 17720, our target will be 17655 level. On the other hand, if nifty open below the previous day's low(PDL) or gap down most probably the market will be sideways and if it opens above the 17800 level , 17880(PDH) will act as resistance. Note - I'm not sebi registered, this is only for educational purposes. Do your own analysis first.
NSE:NIFTY
by Garvit_Narang