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Parallel Channel

GAIL - Multi-year breakout in Monthly TimeframeGAIL has showcased a remarkable multi-year (16 years) breakout, establishing itself as a standout performer in the financial markets. This breakthrough is not merely a fleeting uptick but signifies a strategic ascent by successfully breaching key resistance levels that had acted as formidable barriers for 16 years. Worth noting - VOLUMES Surge: What sets this breakout apart is the substantial surge in trading volumes accompanying the upward move. The volume increase provides a compelling validation of the market's confidence and reinforces the conviction behind the stock's newfound trajectory.
NSE:GAILLong
by SwingtradesbyAbhishek
1
27th Dec ’23 -BankNifty gets a NEW ATH inside the ASC. channelBankNifty Analysis BankNifty is still caught between the upper & lower end of the ascending channel. Even then it managed to scale to a new all-time high of 48347. Half of the traders would have thought BN would have expiry today, the best way to remember would be to use post-it-notes saying BN expires with Nifty on the last week of the month. 4mts chart link - click here BN also had a slight gap-up, but the leg1 of the rally was quite strong. We gained 480pts ~ 1.01% till 12.07 before giving away 356pts ~ 0.74%. Leg2 it rallied 458pts ~ 0.96% but not enough to break out of the channel top line. 63mts chart link - click here Once BN got back into the channel - it is finding it difficult to break down or break away. Somehow the boundaries are getting respected. BN hitting a new top ensured that the stance changed from neutral to bullish. I am seriously thinking if the momentum is intact we should be getting that channel breakout tomorrow. Since it is a monthly expiry a bit of volatility cannot be ruled out as well.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
26th Dec ’23 - BankNifty stance changed to neutral, IV going upBankNifty Analysis Was quite surprised to see BankNifty following the ascending channel’s bottom trendline with a near correlation. Only for a brief period, we traded in RED, once BN pulled itself above water - it was able to hold its level quite strongly. 4mts chart link - click here KOTAKBANK, AXISBANK, and HDFCBANK were trading in green giving BN a much-needed green cushion. Even then there was no strong bullish momentum today - it was just that the bears did not have any control today. 63mts chart link - click here On the higher timeframe, BN is still inside the ascending channel. The bears are unable to exert any pressure post 20th December. Since BN is not ceding ground, I have to change my status from bearish to neutral for tomorrow. This week BankNifty and Nifty are expiring together on Thursday, which means we have no instruments expiring tomorrow 27th Dec. India VIX rose 7.08% today almost touching the 15 levels. Looks like VIX is creating an interim bottom. My EMA’s will show a golden crossover in 2 days if we continue the rising trend. After the news broke out about the drone attack on 2 vessels carrying Indian nationals - I seriously thought we would have a negative reaction today. Seems like the markets were not at all bothered. My next question is, will the market react to this news tomorrow? - “blast outside the Israel embassy in Delhi” VIX 1D chart - click here
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
22nd Dec ’23 - BankNifty's trades today were logical & realisticBankNifty Analysis The trades on BankNifty were more practical and appropriate to the situation we have at hand. 4mts chart link - click here We opened in line and then tested the top of the ascending channel from 10.03 to 12.03. There was rejection at those levels which took BN quickly to the bottom of the channel. We spent 13.43 to 15.11 at the lower end before breaking down. Even though the closing was below the channel, we ran out of time for conclusive evidence. Yesterday we went with a neutral stance believing BankNifty will be able to lead the fight for Nifty50 today. What really happened today was NiftyIT taking the pole position and BankNifty breaking down. 63mts chart link - click here The last 4 candles of today were in RED and we ended just below the channel. For Tuesday, I wish to go with a bearish stance. So at present, my directional view for both Nifty and BankNifty is bearish. Since we have a long weekend - anything could happen when we reopen on Tuesday. I have not taken any positions overnight and decided to play as per the situation after reopening.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
21st Dec ’23 - Nifty50 Retraces 50% of Yesterday’s FallNifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The price action on the 63mts TF does not look bearish per se. But notice the weight of the RED candles — we retraced right up to the ascending channel top envelope.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty started the day on a negative note fell to 20976 and then started recovering. The recovery was so strong and convincing that there was no level of hesitation or indecision in between. When the day ended and the price actions were recorded on the chat - it seemed like the domestic institutions came ready with their chest to pump in new buy orders. From a technical analysis perspective, we cannot hope that dip buyers will step in and do the needful. The best I could do was to draw a Fibonacci retracement level. The final close stands at the exact 50% retracement level. The right setting for a bearish continuation should have been below 21211 ~ 38.2% retracement. The main sector that spoiled the bear’s party today was BankNifty. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty50 takes support right at the ascending channel showing the inability of bears to overpower the bulls. I am inclined to change my stance to neutral with the developments of today. Giving the bears one more opportunity to prove their mettle, hence going with the bearish stance for tomorrow as well. All they have to do is keep Nifty50 below 21200 in the opening 2hrs for the momentum to kick in - that may require a gap down of 50+ points. Seeing how the US markets have reacted to their GDP report (strong green) - the only thing that could put them in RED would be some pointers by FED saying “...no rate cuts in 2024”
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
20th Dec ’23 - 500pts Nifty Reversal Day - Stance is Bearish NowNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “After surging past the 20875 levels — N50 is not willing to take the rest. We broke out from the ascending channel, now it has formed a trend line well above that — how do I explain this craziness to someone? For tomorrow the bullish stance continues and the first support level will be 21407.” 4mts chart link - click here The craziness needed no explanation as the excess got shaved off today. Nifty hit a new ATH @ 21593 and then fell a whopping 506pts ~ 2.34% to close at 21101.5. TradingView minds section was not functioning today, and I felt really helpless to inform you when we reversed the stance. Nifty took out the 21407 only by afternoon, but instead of going neutral - I went bearish directly. The reason was - Nifty made a climb of 146 points first and when it fell to 21400 - the fall ended up approx 193pts ~ 0.9%. That did not look like a neutral price action to me and thankfully Nifty fell another 300pts to cement that idea. 63mts chart link - click here The price action on the 63mts TF does not look bearish per se. But notice the weight of the RED candles - we retraced right up to the ascending channel top envelope. The reason for a change in stance to bearish is just because of momentum. I will explain a bit more in the BankNifty Postmortem below.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
18th Dec ’23 - Our market takes a pause - Nifty50 PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “My stance continues to be bullish with the first support level revised to 21341. All we can do now is trail the stop loss and let the winners run. 4mts chart link - click here Nifty was absolutely trading in a narrow range with minor dips. More action was visible on BankNifty today which nudged me to go for a status change (will discuss this shortly). Nifty opened gap-down - the excess euphoria of Friday got shaved off and then it recovered from the LOD. Interestingly the low of the day was in the opening minutes and we never tested it. Technically 21341 was not tested and no status change is warranted. 63mts chart link - click here There was nothing special in today’s action. Nifty defended its lower side quite neatly. NiftyIT was toggling between red and green. BankNifty was in RED. Nifty Pharma was quite energetic today, but the major point gainers for Nifty were RELIANCE and Bajaj Finance. I do not wish to change Nifty’s stance - I still prefer to look for long-only trades. However, 21341 would be the laxman rekha for me tomorrow also. If we get a closing below that - I would love to go neutral. To go bearish - we need to break below the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram