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GOLD STORY #2: Things to watch out for when Gold corrects In the past 24 hours, the price of gold (XAU/USD) has dropped to $2,657/ounce, let's review the trading plan 🔎 1/ Fundamental Analysis 🔴 Global economy and market sentiment: • Rising DXY Index: The DXY Index, which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of major currencies, crossed the 110.00 mark for the first time since November 2023. A rising USD usually puts downward pressure on gold prices, as USD-denominated gold becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies. • Positive US economic data: The latest jobs report showed positive Non-Farm Payrolls figures, reducing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates, thereby supporting the USD and putting pressure on gold prices. 📊 2/ Technical Analysis 🔵 Looking at the H4 chart, you can see that the price is at the important support zone of 266x 🔵 The price structure of H4 and H1 has changed when Keylever 2664 has been broken 🔵 Looking at the H1 price channel, you can see that the price line shows that the sellers are still strong, the price trend is likely to find the support zone below at 265x 📈 3/ Trading Plan 🟢 BUY: We have to wait for a clearer price structure at the current support zone. Do not rush to place orders when yesterday's selling momentum has not been fully absorbed. Our buy plan will be based on the price structure I drew on the chart plan. 🔴 SELL • If you currently have a good position at the resistance zone above, we can consider taking some profits and waiting for a better profit at the next support zone 261x~263x. Or: wait for price reaction at the current support zone to establish a position 🐂 Which side are you on – BULL or BEAR? 🐻 💬 Leave a comment and discuss with the community!
FX:XAUUSD
by TonyL0ng
GOLD STORY #1: XAUUSD SIDEWAY – SHOULD I BUY OR SELL NOW?🔎 1/ Fundamental Analysis 🔴 Global economy and market sentiment: • Non-farm payrolls (NFP) data: Positive results, showing that the US economy is growing steadily. • Inflation – the deciding factor: The Fed is still waiting for CPI data next week, which will be the most important factor for interest rate policy. • Uncertainty from Russia-US tensions: Trade and political sanctions continue to increase, creating greater risks for the global market. 💡 Summary: Although the USD received support signals from NFP, gold prices still maintained their upward momentum due to risk-off sentiment. 📊 2/ Technical Analysis 🔵 W (Weekly) Frame: • After 5 weeks of sideways, gold price bounced back strongly, continuing the main trend. • The weekly candle closed with a strong body, showing that the bulls are in control. 🔵 D (Daily) Frame: • The key level 2600 has been broken, but the resistance zone 2725~2750 has not given a positive signal. • The price touches the resistance but continuously creates higher lows – the market is still leaning towards the bulls. 🔵 H1 Frame: • The uptrend is clear, but the price is near the resistance zone. • The Risk-Reward (R:R) ratio is no longer attractive to trade in the uptrend. 📈 3/ Trading Plan 🟢 BUY – Follow the trend: • If you have a buy order at a low price, congratulations! 🎉 👉 You can: • Hold the order: If you expect the price to continue to break the resistance. • Close a part: When the price touches the resistance zone of 2725~2750 to preserve profits. • Note: If you do not have a position, you should not FOMO into this price zone because the R:R ratio is no longer ideal. 🔴 SELL – Counter-trend: • Although the uptrend does not support selling, you can consider: • Wait for the price reaction at the resistance zone of 2725~2750. OANDA:XAUUSD • Expected profit should be low because this is a counter-trend trade. 🐂 Which side are you on – BULL or BEAR? 🐻 💬 Leave a comment and discuss with the community! OANDA:XAUUSD
FX:XAUUSD
by TonyL0ng
Nifty: Trade data analysis, Chart set up and co-relationNifty Derivative data analysis for trade day April 9, 2021 Futures Data - Retail participants added 10.97K Index Futures Long Contracts & exited 434 Index Futures Short contracts - FIIs added 990 Index Futures Long Contracts and added 6.56 K Index Futures Short Contracts - Proprietary traders added 1.47K Index Futures Long contracts and added 5.98K Index Futures Short contracts Call Option - Retail participants added 2.71 Lakhs Call Long Contracts & added 2.76 Lakh Call Short contracts - FIIs added 38.86 K Call Long Contracts and added 37.75 K Call Short Contracts - Proprietary traders added 1.04 Lakh Call Long contracts and added 1.01 Lakh Call Short contracts Put Option - Retail participants added 1.77 Lakhs Put Long Contracts & added 2.12 Lakhs Put Short contracts - FIIs added 34.04 K Put Long Contracts and added 18.61 K Put Short Contracts - Proprietary traders added 1.01 Lakh Put Long contracts and added 82.87 K Put Short contracts At important technical resistance levels, We observe retail traders going Long aggressively and on the other hand FIIs and Proprietary traders going short in index futures. On the Options front, we observe Retail traders being Net neutral in Call Options and Net Put Short FIIs & Proprietary traders were Net neutral in Calls and were Net Put buyers Today, we see Nifty dropping 400 points... and the result is in front of us who the winner of the set up is... If you have been following me, you would realize I have been highlighting the importance of resistance at 14882. On an intraday basis, it did breach it and traded higher but on a closing basis it was respected to perfection. Our strategy to sell 14900 Call option had factored in this kind of risk and we were well positioned and came out making profits in the trade Prior to this we also suggested a strategy to go short in 15200 Call option for May series in the region of 250-300. Our strategy to sell 15200 Call option for May series in the region of 250-300 gave ample opportunity to enter the trade . It has made a low of 143 so far and is now trading at 150 and is in profit Going forward, On Technical Analysis front - it has opened below 50 day EMA - broken the yellow turned dotted red line - at the important blue Lakshman Rekha line ( level identified since February 2021 and has been massively respected) - with multiple re-test of Laxmam Rekha line, is it getting weaker and would it break...??? Only time will tell... All these points have been discussed in my previous Nifty posts which you can go through... This is not a recommendation now. We are reaping the rewards of the hard work done earlier. This post is more for you to understand - the importance of doing your homework, - analyzing profit potential and risk involved before you enter a trade & - preparing a trading plan that suits you and factors in the risk.... - and more importantly be in control of the situation and be in better frame of mind. If you want to improve as a trader, first thing you need to do is ensure your mind is relaxed. And to be relaxed you need to prepare a good trading plan. Remember, chances of you making a better trading decision would increase when you do your homework and when you have the right mindset. Best wishes....!!! Like and Follow
NSE:NIFTY
by indiamarketoutlook
6