Bird's eye NIFTY along with political historyFrom July 1991 till date, both the Congress and BJP have had their respective terms in power, and their policies have influenced the Indian economy in different ways. It's important to note that economic growth is influenced by numerous factors, including global trends, external shocks, and domestic policies.
Congress Term:
During the Congress term, particularly from May 2004 to April 2014, India witnessed significant economic growth. This period saw the implementation of economic liberalization policies initiated in 1991, which aimed to open up the Indian economy, promote foreign investment, and deregulate various sectors. These policies contributed to the growth of industries such as IT and services.
The Congress-led government also focused on social welfare programs, such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), which aimed to alleviate poverty and improve healthcare in rural areas.
However, the Congress term was also marked by certain controversies and scams, such as the Harshad Mehta Scam, Commonwealth Games scandal, and the 2G spectrum allocation controversy. These incidents impacted investor confidence and raised concerns about corruption and governance.
BJP Term:
The BJP-led government faced the challenges of the dotcom bubble burst in 2000 and the global financial crisis in 2008. These events had a significant impact on the Indian economy, causing a slowdown and affecting various sectors.
During their term, the BJP government focused on economic reforms and initiatives such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), and the "Make in India" campaign. They aimed to streamline taxation, promote ease of doing business, attract investments, and boost domestic manufacturing.
Additionally, the government emphasized infrastructure development, with projects like the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) and the Sagarmala project. They also sought to address financial inclusion through initiatives like Jan Dhan Yojana and Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) schemes.
It's important to note that economic growth is a complex and multifaceted process influenced by numerous factors, not solely dependent on the ruling party's policies. External factors, global economic conditions, and other domestic factors also play significant roles.
To get a comprehensive understanding of the economic trends and policies during these periods, it is advisable to refer to official reports, academic studies, and reputable sources that provide detailed analysis and data on specific economic indicators, GDP growth rates, and sector-wise performance.
Remember to critically analyze the information and consider multiple perspectives to form a well-rounded understanding of the economic landscape.
Politics
AUDUSD bulls flex muscles but 0.6530 holds the gateAUDUSD retreats to the upper line of a one-month-old symmetrical triangle. However, the RSI (14) suggests that the bulls are running out of steam. As a result, the upside momentum appears doubtful unless witnessing a successful break of the 0.6480 hurdle. Even so, multiple hurdles surrounding the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s downside between September 20 and October 13, around 0.6530, appears as the key resistance to watch for a better view. If the quote manages to stay beyond 0.6530, the odds of a run-up towards 0.6570 and then to 0.6655-60 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, pullback moves remain elusive unless staying beyond the 200-SMA level surrounding the 0.6400 threshold. Following that, 0.6365 and 0.6345 levels can entertain the AUDUSD bears. It should be noted, however, that the aforementioned triangle’s support line, close to 0.6290 at the latest, will be crucial to follow afterward. In a case where the pair successfully breaks the 0.6290 support, it becomes vulnerable to refreshing the yearly low, currently around 0.6170.
Overall, AUDUSD lures buyers but confirmation is necessary before taking a long position.
GBPUSD upside remains elusive below 1.1400The US dollar’s decline versus most currencies on Friday allowed GBPUSD to bounce off a three-week-old support line. The recovery, however, needs validation from a monthly resistance line, around 1.1400 by the press time. Following that, the monthly high around 1.1490 may act as an intermediate halt before directing bulls towards September’s top surrounding 1.1740. In a case where the quote rises past 1.1740, July’s low near 1.1760 appears the last defense of bears ahead of highlighting the 1.2000 psychological magnet for the buyers.
Meanwhile, sellers remain confused unless the quote stays beyond an upward-sloping support line from September 29, close to 1.1060 by the press time. Should GBPUSD sellers manage to conquer the 1.1060 support, a south-run towards the monthly low, currently around 1.0925, can’t be ruled out. Furthermore, the quote’s weakness past 1.0925 could take halts near 1.0760 and 1.0630 before revisiting the record low flashed the last month, around 1.0355.
Overall, GBPUSD pares the previous monthly losses but it isn’t out of the woods.
GBPUSD bears have a bumpy road to the south at multi-month lowBe it recession fears or the UK’s political crisis, GBPUSD has to bear it all as it dropped to the lowest level since March 2020. However, the cable pair appears to have a limited downside room before hitting the key supports. That said, a nearly oversold RSI and a falling wedge bullish chart pattern near the multi-month low also tease buyers to take the risk. It should be noted, however, that a downside break of the 1.1770 mark, comprising the wedge’s support line and 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May moves, will defy the bullish hopes. Following that, the 100% FE level surrounding 1.1520 may offer an intermediate halt before dragging the quote to the year 2020 bottom close to 1.1410.
Meanwhile, recovery moves may initially struggle around the 61.8% FE level near 1.1950 before regaining the 1.2000 mark. Though, bulls will be interested in seeing a successful break of the 1.2100 mark as it confirms the falling wedge bullish formation. In that case, theory suggests a run-up towards the 1.2800 round figure but the 50-DMA and May’s top could challenge the buyers respectively around 1.2360 and 1.2565.
Overall, GBPUSD sellers appear to have run out of steam but the bulls need validation.
Gold refreshes multi-month high above $1,900 on Russia invasion Despite reversing from an eight-month high, gold prices recently crossed the stated key resistance, also rallied beyond June 2021 peak. Additionally, favoring gold buyers is the metal’s ability to stay above the previous double-tops, as well as a three-week-old support line, amid bullish MACD signals. However, the RSI pullback from the overbought territory may test the immediate rising trend line near $1,866, a break of which will highlight the $1879-77 region as the short-term buyer’s last defense. In a case where gold prices drop below $1,877, January’s peak of $1,853 will return to the chart but a convergence of the 100 and 200-DMA near $1,810 will be a tough nut to crack for the sellers afterward.
Alternatively, tops marked in January 2021 and November 2020, respectively around $1,960 and $1,965, can lure the gold buyers before directing them to the $2,000 psychological magnet.
Fundamentally, concerns of an imminent war between Russia and Ukraine join inflation woes to keep supporting the gold bulls. Though, firmer US Q4 GDP, second estimate, will propel 0.50% Fed-rate-hike concerns, which in turn can trigger short-term pullback of the precious metal.