Get started

Postmortem

26th Oct ’23 - BankNifty retests the levels seen on 11 Nov 2022BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis BankNifty had 1 extra in this week as the last expiry was on Wednesday. But the extra day was cut short as we had a scheduled holiday (Dussehra) in between. BankNifty did not fall as much as Nifty, it fell only 3.64% ~ 1597pts compared to 3.9% on Nifty. The premiums on the option strikes were not good enough except today. But I am quite sure BankNifty has already done its part by leading this trend reversal well ahead. BankNifty Today Analysis There were 2 interesting patterns in the chart today. Firstly we did not open as badly as Nifty, we were only 0.31% ~ 131pts gap-down. Secondly, the percentage fall on BankNifty was well below Nifty50 for most of the duration today. After the gap-down open we fell another 599pts ~ 1.40% before gaining support and then retracing 262pts ~ 0.62%. Only between 11.10 to 11.45 the percent fall was much greater than Nifty50. What that means is BankNifty was showing reluctance to fall and even when it did - it managed to crawl back up. I am not suggesting a bottom is in place - but the bears are not as strong on BN as they are on N50. A look at the daily chart will help you solve that confusion. The next marked support in my chart is 41624 which is 656pts below today’s closing. We might need a strong red candle to get there - this may help push the momentum for the bears. According to me the cuts in BankNifty has to exceed the cuts in Nifty more than the weightage it exerts - only then a strong downward trend will materialize. If you look at the levels today, we have retouched the zones of 17 Apr 2023, 25 Jan 2023, 22 Dec 2022, 11 Nov 2022. When 42280 was first hit on 11/11/2022 - it was a new all-time high that day. I would like to maintain my bearish stance and expect BN to trade between 42576 and 41624 for tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
26th Oct ’23 - Nifty hits the jackpot of 18880 - PostMortemNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Nifty fell a whopping 765pts ~ 3.90% between the last expiry and today. Most importantly it has retraced all its gains from 28th June to close below 18880. We will cover why that is relevant below, but this fall of 4% signals a reversal in trend. Even though VIX is still below 12%, it is showing a tendency to spike, reassuring the bearish sentiment. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the daily timeframe, the next possible candle that should appear should have its low touching the 18880 level (best case). If Nifty manages to pull this out, it will be an awesome November and December month getting lined up for the Bears. Since Nifty went up from 18880 to 19310 as 3 white soldiers, the return should be nothing less than 3 black crows.” Nifty50 was quite benevolent today, we set a target of 18880 and Nifty hit that by 10.55. That’s a first - 99 out of 100 days the strategy we set for days like these ends up worthless. A day like today will ensure that 1 day is good enough for the options to go deep in the money. We had a gap down open of -86pts ~ 0.45% and from there we fell another 193pts ~ 1.02%. The final close was at 18857. The chart may not paint the severity of the move since its on a logarithmic scale - but trust me, the pain was much more. Except for AXIS, ITC and HCLTECH - the cuts were pretty steep for everything else. On the 1hr chart, the intensity of the first candle is quite obvious. We took out 211 ~1.11% in the first hour itself. The remainder of the day was more or less sideways with a slight bearish intent. On the daily TF, notice the orange color encircled regions. You can quickly relate what 3 white soldiers and 3 black crows are. Today’s closing ensures we retouched the new ATH set on 01 Dec 2022 & 19 Jun 2023. Further price action should be interesting as the global macros keep on deteriorating. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my bearish stance and expect Nifty to trade between 18880 and 18762. If we break 18762, my next target would be 18597.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
25th Oct ’23 - Pure support & resistance play - 42576 nxt level?BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was a pure support and resistance play today. If you had seen my charts earlier - you would have seen the marked SR zones and noticed how we reacted to 3 of those levels today. Open was gap-up above the 43253 SR level. We went up to 43404 zone and got rejected and came back. We spent some time back at the 43253 levels with no special directional intent. The options flow was perfectly in sync with this non-directional bias for this short period. The rejection of 43253 came at 12.00 (strong red candle) and we cut through the 43012 SR level by 12.40 (another strong red candle). From there we retested the 43012 level at 14.10 & 14.15 only to be rejected. One of the reasons BankNifty held its ground today was due to these closely stacked support/resistance levels if not we should have fallen more than Nifty50 today. On the 1hr TF, the next level to watch out is 42576. Below that there is a big gap till 41624, which means if we manage to break 42576 tomorrow - the next fall is going to be steep enough. BN will have its expiry along with Nifty50 tomorrow and I wish to maintain my bearish stance.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
25th Oct ’23 - When will the 18880 level get broken? Nifty50Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is — the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969).” Nifty did not disappoint the Bears today. The start was right at the 19310 level and we managed to stay around that zone till 10.40. Honestly, I was also fearful that my bearish call may not work out today. For the last 1 to 2 years, Nifty has shown unbelievable resilience that will suck the soul out of any bear. Luckily, the fall started to accelerate once we broke from the 19310 laxman rekha i.e after 10.45. We fell to a new swing low of 19074 intraday, levels last seen as of 30th June 2023. The bounce of 104pts was healthy and gave the bears quite a good premium to enter the 2nd level of shorts. On the daily timeframe, the next possible candle that should appear should have its low touching the 18880 level (best case). If Nifty manages to pull this out, it will be an awesome November and December month getting lined up for the Bears. Since Nifty went up from 18880 to 19310 as 3 white soldiers, the return should be nothing less than 3 black crows. If we get that tomorrow - we are in for a treat, because the entire price action above 19310 right up to 20222 will lose its relevance. I wish to maintain my bearish stance for tomorrow’s expiry and hope to collect some good premiums. A noticeable change we saw today was the spike of India VIX to 12 levels. Although we cooled off and closed at 11.3125, the future holds promise.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
23rd Oct ’23 - BankNifty is well below the 28th June levelsBankNifty Analysis BankNifty on the other hand had a gap up open, thanks to the excellent results from ICICI Bank. To a great extent, BankNifty resisted the down move on Nifty. Even till 13.55, it was only 0.17% below the previous close. But right after that, it fell like a house of cards. Whatever support ICICI gave till then was undone. ICICI ended up closing negative 0.3%, remember that it stayed green till 14.55. An intraday swing of 2.06%. BankNifty also broke 2 supports today, 43404 and 43253, both of them after 14.55. These supports offered no protection today, the momentum to cruise through was that strong. Fortunately, the 43012 support (3rd support) was held today. On the daily time frame, BankNifty has already undone the 28th June adventure. We are now trading at levels seen in the first week of May. The next major support after 43012 comes at 42576 and then at 42130. Going by the depth of the red candle today - it is quite likely that we retest those levels quickly.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
23rd Oct ’23 - The perfect day to break 2 supports - NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.” If you watched the opening minutes, you would not have guessed the 283+ intraday fall possibilities. We had a flat open instead of a gap-down even after a weak handout from US markets last Friday. The options data did not indicate any directional bias. Even India VIX fell to 9.68 by 10.00 indicating a collapse of The best evidence was India VIX which fell to a session low of 9.68 by 10.00, unbelievably down by 9.5%. I had 2 short positions on Nifty, long puts and short calls. I planned to unwind the short calls and get into the FinNifty options to take advantage of the expiry today. This plan was spoiled by the 10.00 AM red candle that prevented me from switching. What happened from there was simply magical. By 11.40 we tested the first support of 19446 and by 13.30 we broke that. Honestly, I thought that's how the day ends. The real party was just starting. Between 14.05 to close we fell a massive 180pts ~ 0.93% and took out the 19310 crucial support pretty easily. On the 1hr chart, its more clear and loud. The 14.15 candle shaved off 165pts ~ 0.85% and the length of that candle does tell a story. Since that support is broken, it may pave the way for further downfall. To prove this point, had to bring up the daily chart. See the encircled region, Nifty sent 3 white soldiers on 28th June to break out from the 18880 level. That helped it conquer 2 new ATHs on 20th July and 15th Sep. Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is - the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969). Since we have a holiday tomorrow (Dussehra) we may have to watch how SPX reacts for 2 days. If the Global macros improve, a brief relief rally above 19310 may be visible, but seeing the strength of the RED daily candle, I wish to continue my bearish stance.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
20th Oct ’23 - Unwilling to Die attitude from BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis The greatest surprise of today came from BankNifty. A perfect flat closing today. I was hoping for a 400+ pts fall today considering how the global indices ended the trade yesterday, also how the US banks were tanking. The resilience Indian banks showed today deserves special mention. If you look at the price action today, we went green by 09.35 and then had a range-bound trade. At 13.15 we had a 114pts surge super-strong green candle, but we quickly retraced that. If BankNifty had fallen just as much as Nifty50 today - the entire story would have been different. The immense weight BN has over N50 ensured the cuts are not that deep. On the hourly time frame, things look still bearish as the 44068 resistance still stands. I agree that we did not have momentum today, but if we stay in this zone - the selling will intensify. My targets of 43404 and 43253 remain unchanged.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
20th Oct ’23 - Contrasting Trade Signals by N50 and BN todayNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.” Nifty had a gap-down opening with the long wick on the 1st candle retesting the 19520 swing-low we hit yesterday. Right after that the momentum just died out. There were no wild swings or flash moves - we just traded flat. A consolidation at these levels was not something I had in mind. It is too early for that as worsening global macros should have pushed Nifty below 19310 by now. As I write this newsletter, India VIX ended the trade at 10.81 and US VIX is at 21.6. Can you imagine we have a 100% gap between the India and US volatility index? I am 100% sure that one of these markets is pricing in the information wrongly. No way both of them can be right. On the 1hr chart - today’s 0.42% drop has not moved the needle or bias. The first support of 19446 is still untested, which means higher weightage will go for range-based trade instead of outright bearish. Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
19th Oct ’23 - BankNifty the main villain for the bears todayBankNifty Analysis The main villain who spoiled the plans for the bears is BankNifty. We had an opening candle swing of 333pts on the downside, but the price action was not looking that bearish for some or other reason. Ideally, we are below the support level of 44068 and any down-swing should have created an avalanche of shorts. Instead, we started climbing back right from the 2nd candle. Leg 1 was complete by 11.25, that 5mts candle alone contributed 189pts and took BN into green territory. The 2nd leg of the upside came between 13.20 to 14.05. Notice from the chart how the support/resistance level of 44063 came into play today. We had a rejection at 14.05 and BankNifty started moving downwards. Even though we climbed 503pts ~ 1.16% between the intraday low to high - the rejection at resistance proves the point that we are still bearish. Of the targets set yesterday, 43735 was broken and we got pretty close to 43519. We are getting back to the zone that has good support/resistance marked from the prior price actions. My new targets for tomorrow will be 43404 and 43253 if we are continuing to move downwards. If we go upwards - no action is really required unless 44068 is broken. India VIX closed at 10.8975 and US VIX is trading at 19.67 the difference between them a whopping 80%. Noting it - in case we do not see drastic variance again.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
19th Oct ’23 - How do we recover from a Gap-Down Like that? Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 172pts ~ 0.87%. Meanwhile, BankNifty fell 1.42% in its weekly expiry (we discussed it in yesterday’s newsletter). Nifty is still range bound whereas BankNifty has dropped below the support. Usually BankNifty leads the reversals, so we can increase our expectation of a fall in Nifty going ahead. Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, I wish to change my stance from bullish to neutral but with a bearish bias. The rationale being the intensity of the 10.15 candle that cut through the support. That candle looks purposefully planted to bring a bearish bias. If we start moving downwards tomorrow, my first target will be 19600 followed by 19529. Quite interestingly both predictions came true, we broke the targets 19600, 19529 and ended the day with a neutral tone. I was not surprised by the gap-down open of -100pts or so, it was expected as SPX ended the day with a loss of 1.3% yesterday. What surprised me was the recovery of 168pts ~ 0.87% that came between 09.35 to 14.05 wherein Nifty50 traded in the green for a brief period. Usually, when the bearish targets are taken out it means we are falling and the market has no will or power to climb back. The 5mts candle at 11.25 alone gave a boost of 60pts. Getting your view right and making money are 2 different things you know. The moment you go bearish, you get an instant reversal taking out your stop loss. This might have been the case with most of the traders today. From the 1hr chart, you can notice how deep the gap-down open today. And the 11.45 candle that closed the gap with a gain of 86pts more or less would have taken the soul out of the bears. Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound - but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
18th Oct ’23 - BN leader during trend reversals - PostMortem BankNifty Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty lost 630pts and almost 82% of that came today. Interestingly the stable support level of 44068 is now breached. Remember we went below this level on 31-Aug, 04-Oct and 09-Oct and we managed to climb back every time. Will it be different this time? BankNifty Today Analysis The leader during reversals is always BankNifty and it is visible today also. Nifty had a similar opening candle, but the next few minutes were negating it and moved up. BankNifty on the other hand did not go up strongly. The fall from 44390 was almost 519pts ~ 1.17% which cut through the support of 44068 with so much ease. Remember this was the same support zone that had rejected all 4 prior fall attempts. After falling below the 44068 levels, there was no attempt to climb back - a sign that bulls may have lost control. If it stays below this level for tomorrow, the selling is just going to intensify. On the 1hr chart, the 10.15 candle that took out 422pts ~ 0.95% stands highlighted. Never before did we have such a strong candle right at the support area - going by the intensity, looks like further move may come on the downside instead of rejection. What really caused this panic selling? Not sure. Surprisingly the India VIX is still at 10.96 and US VIX is at 19.00 - the gap between them is a whopping 73.3%. Ideally, the implied volatility has to pick up for strong downward price action. A glimpse of that was very much visible in the options prices today. Going by the options flow and since we broke the support, I wish to change my stance to bearish. My first target would be 43735 and then 43519.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
18th Oct ’23 - Vertical fall from a strong zone - PostMortem N50Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, we have formed an island just above the 19776 levels. Today’s swing high has taken out the highs of 12th October. I wish to continue with my bullish stance as long as the support of 19776 is respected. Ideally, the next target should be 19907 and then 19998 if we are going up. Not sure why, but our markets are looking bullish despite a war in the Middle East, surging gold, surging crude oil, and surging treasury yields in the US. Why are Indian stock indices insulated from these multi-headed shocks? Either the fundamentals are not bad or the technicals (charts) have not priced in these anomalies. As a technical trader, the only option for me is to follow the charts even while knowing something’s off. India VIX @ 10.69, US VIX @ 17.88” The pre-open did not show any indication for the day that followed, even the open was inline. The first candle was quite strong in RED, but it bounced off the support line of 19776. By 10.05 we were back to 19840 levels and looking strong. Even though the 19700 PEs were trading in the cheap 20 to 22 range - I was not interested in buying thinking it would go worthless. What followed was totally uncalled for. We started falling quite brutally, the support was taken out by 10.50, the intensity really picked up and we hit an interim bottom at 12.30 ~ 19674 levels. As we discussed yesterday, the charts did not indicate this movement - it looked pretty bullish to me. What happened today was that my long position went into loss and then I had to go short to go with the trend. The second leg of the fall took out 65pts ~ 0.33% after we climbed to the 19720 levels. The 2nd leg was stalled by time - else we could have seen more action. On the 1hr TF, I wish to change my stance from bullish to neutral but with a bearish bias. The rationale being the intensity of the 10.15 candle that cut through the support. That candle looks purposefully planted to bring a bearish bias. If we start moving downwards tomorrow, my first target will be 19600 followed by 19529. In case we reverse, the first step would be to take out the resistance of 19776.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
17th Oct ’23 - BankNifty still neutral till 44650 - PostMortemBankNifty Analysis BankNifty also had a similar chart pattern as of Nifty50. A gap-up open of 345pts ~ 0.78% and then a steady period till 13.20. Fell 208pts ~ 0.47% in 50mts and then recovered for close. HDFCBK did quite well even after the declaration of the results. The gap-up on hdfcbank was the main reason both Nifty and BankNifty had an unusual start. In fact HDFCBANK had a similar chart as that of BN as well as N50, except for the period 13.20 to 14.10 wherein HDFCBK fell only 0.38%. The fall in Kotak, ICICI, AXIS were quite strong in that period - is it telling us something? Yesterday also we decided to go with a neutral stance, today we are sticking by that again. Despite the gap-up today we were not able to break through the 44650 zone i.e. above the double top level. For bullish momentum to pick up, the only thing BN has to do is negate the double-top zone. If we are falling, the level to watch out for is 44068.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
17th Oct ’23 - Nifty Breaches Resistance Zone 19776 - PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, I wish to maintain the neutral stance until we break out or break down. Since we are near the resistance level, the probability of breaking out could be higher. That does not mean we jump the gun and take the trade early — patience is gold” Nifty got a mega boost by the gap-up open of almost 118pts ~ 0.6%. Since it took out my resistance zone, I had to change my bias from neutral to bullish. Interestingly Nifty looked strong till 13.20 after which it shed 72pts ~ 0.36% in 50mts. Despite that misadventure, we still respected the support of 19776. The final closing was also quite good and above the 19800 levels. On the 1hr TF, we have formed an island just above the 19776 levels. Today’s swing high has taken out the highs of 12th October. I wish to continue with my bullish stance as long as the support of 19776 is respected. Ideally, the next target should be 19907 and then 19998 if we are going up. Not sure why, but our markets are looking bullish despite a war in the Middle East, surging gold, surging crude oil, and surging treasury yields in the US. Why are Indian stock indices insulated from these multi-headed shocks? Either the fundamentals are not bad or the technicals (charts) have not priced in these anomalies. As a technical trader, the only option for me is to follow the charts even while knowing something’s off. India VIX @ 10.69, US VIX @ 17.88
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
1
16th Oct ’23 - M pattern overlooking W pattern - BN PostMortemBankNifty Analysis BankNifty’s trade today looked quite different from Nifty50. The opening candle was a stronger red and we retested the 44068 support. Since we did not break it - my short call did not trigger. The rejection took BN higher by 312pts ~ 0.71% and we went into the green territory for a brief period. And even after all these - the options data was absolutely lackluster. Absolutely no premiums - the best trade again was to wait it out. We all knew HDFC Bank would come with its results today - still, the volatility was not really there. Recommend you to read this tweet by Deepak Shenoy wherein he has compared the results pre and post-merger. Most retail traders may be blinded to believing there was a 50% rise in Net Profits. The reality is quite different. On the 1hr TF we have a double top overlooking a newly formed double bottom (just below support). Although the W shape is not that beautiful - the lack of ability to break the support puts its weight behind it. Today also we had a reversal from support. I still prefer to go with a neutral stance till we get more clarity. 100% sure that HDFCBK’s results will skew the price action tomorrow - I still prefer to wait for the dust to settle.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
16th Oct ’23 - Flattish Day with no flavor - PostMortem on NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr pattern, the first thing I would like to do is change my stance from bullish to neutral. We have broken the 19776 support today and well above the 19446 zone. For Monday I wish to go with the neutral trades only and go short if we fall below 19614 in the forenoon session.” We started the day with a strong red candle, maybe the spillover effect as SPX had closed with a cut of 0.5% on Friday. We did not fall below 19614 so there was no question of going short. Interestingly we recovered 89pts by 11.45 and was trading with a tint of green. Markets were absolutely flat with no flavor, people who had deployed directional strategies would have felt asleep seeing the price action. Traders who went with non-directional strategies like the iron condor, iron fly or straddles/strangles would have hit the jackpot. In the last hour, we gave away 50pts - but nothing to worry about. Our VIX ended the day with 11.07 whereas US VIX is still at 17.61 even after a 9% collapse after SPX went green today. Lower VIX in Indian markets reflects the lack of fear or uncertainties - reiterating that it is a pathetic period to sell options thinking you can collect whatever premium is available. Selling low is not a good strategy - it is better to wait out or take a vacation if you are that impulsive. On the 1hr chart, I wish to maintain the neutral stance until we break out or break down. Since we are near the resistance level, the probability of breaking out could be higher. That does not mean we jump the gun and take the trade early - patience is gold. I personally prefer to see a fall and retest of the 19446 levels by this Thursday - that is the only way I know to drive up the VIX.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
13th Oct ’23 - HDFCBK results may mess up Tech Analysis -BankN50BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was crazier than Nifty today, but because the options premium were not juicy enough, I refrained from taking positions (glad that I did). Open we fell 349pts and never really recovered from it. Till 13.30 BankNifty was showing more intent to fall than Nifty. Then came a quick surge of 248pts ~ 0.56% in 30mts. We closed the gap with this. More importantly, we fell back 360pts from that day’s top. A 0.81% fall in the closing hour has to do something with the results on HDFCBK. Yesterday I went with a neutral view for BankNifty and clearly said would prefer to go bearish if the 44380 level is broken. 44380 from the chart above shows the minor support level on which the double top lands. For Monday, it looks like the technical analysis may not work as news-flow, the results declaration on HDFCBK will mess it up. Still, with respect to the support/resistance levels, I wish to go with a short position if the 44068 gets broken.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
13th Oct ’23 - Unseen Double V shape - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”For tomorrow I wish to continue my bullish stance if 19776 support is respected. If that breaks in the morning session, I would like to change my stance to neutral. If 19671 level breaks in the forenoon session — I would definitely go short as we may fall below the double-top formation.” Yes, you guessed it right by reading the title - I lost money both ways today. Firstly I went short because 19671 was broken. The short trade did not do well as we stopped falling. Secondly, we had a massive reversal - a total of 170pts intraday swing that really made my short position look like a sitting duck. To start with, I did not expect we would have an opening candle swing of negative 147pts ~ 0.75%. Agreed that US markets were weak yesterday and INFY results disappointed. Guess what? Infy ended the day with just -2.34% loss. The rates pre-open showed was negative 4% opening on INFY would have really put the pressure on Nifty to have that deep-cut opening. But levels are levels and we traders respect that - I had no other option but to go short. The only mistake I made was not having a safe long position on the CALL side as protection. There again I never thought we would be rallying back to go-green and then fall back. We had 2 V shapes today. The first reversal at 10.50 and the 2nd one at 14.25. I might have to test and find out what kind of trader made money today - A double V shape is normally not a Nifty50 phenomenon. On the 1hr pattern, the first thing I would like to do is change my stance from bullish to neutral. We have broken the 19776 support today and well above the 19446 zone. For Monday I wish to go with the neutral trades only and go short if we fall below 19614 in the forenoon session. Till then I am eagerly watching how SPX will close the day today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12th Oct ’23 - BN hides the NiftyIT fall today - PostMortem BankNifty Analysis Banknifty also had a perfect flat day today. Since we did not have an attempt to fall, I assume the bulls have a slight advantage over the bears. Its inability to take out the 44738 resistance was also quite worrying. But there was something strange and heroic by BN today. NiftyIT was falling pretty sharply today on the back of results from TCS. INFY also started falling even though the results came after market hours. NiftyIT fell 1.67% today but had a total swing range of 2% today. The major reason why it was not reflecting on Nifty50 was due to BankNifty’s counter-performance along with RELIANCE & ITC. Will try to write an article this weekend on why NiftyIT should have Futures & Options enabled and an independent expiry day. The only volatile index out there is IT and since we have a VIX collapse the option sellers are making only peanuts these days (me included). NiftyIT if enabled for FnO will have attractive premiums as it is quite expected to move 1.5 to 2% intraday. On the 1hr chart, BN shows a sideways pattern. I wish to continue my neutral stance till the resistance of 44738 is taken out. And wish to change to bearish if we break the 44380 levels. After the market closed we got the CPI inflation data and it came at 5.02% - source. This should give a positive boost for tomorrow. Also, the US CPI came at 3.7% - source - but as it stands SPX is trading flat.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
12th Oct ’23 - A perfect Flat day of trade - Nifty PostMortemNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Nifty went up 236pts ~ 1.21% between the last expiry and today. The major highlight was its capability to defend the support of 19446 and then breach the resistance of 19776. Today we even retested the support of 19776 and it held and may pave the way for further upmoves. Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “We had a perfect island day today above the resistance level of 19776. My bullish view continues and the next level to watch out for will be 19901 which was tested on 11th and 20th Sep. It just took 2 days to recover from the fall we had due to war — sometimes I think we have not priced in the real impact of it.” This was the day today - a perfect flat day. If yesterday’s price action is taken into consideration it shows a good continuity. The pre-open showed more bullishness but except for the gap-up we did not have any bullish momentum today. My long call for today did not yield any results. I do not see a bearish intent - we tried breaking the support of 19776. Even the 19800 psychological level was showing good stability just like yesterday. On the 1hr TF, I still do not see the reason to abandon my bullish stance. I agree that the 19899 level was not taken out today. But the support of 19776 did not break either. It also makes sense for Nifty to rest after the Tuesday and Wednesday climb. For tomorrow I wish to continue my bullish stance if 19776 support is respected. If that breaks in the morning session, I would like to change my stance to neutral. If 19671 level breaks in the forenoon session - I would definitely go short as we may fall below the double-top formation.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
11th Oct ’23 - BankNifty is still neutral, Nifty has broken outBankNifty Weekly Expiry Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has gained 525pts ~ 1.2%. The fall on 9th October was nicely covered up by the price actions on 10th and 11th. This is the 2nd time BankNifty has recovered after falling below 44068, the bulls are still strong. BankNifty Today Analysis There were many things different about the expiry today. We went in with very low options premium. So when we opened gap-up of 180pts the option mispricing was very much evident. It took a while for the CE options to start surging - most interestingly the OTM call options went on to make day’s high after BankNifty started cooling off from the day’s high. Few of the OTMs surged above 120% - quite unbelievable. If I draw an orange line from the recent double-top formation - it ends up right at today’s intraday high. The inability to break this interim top will become a problem for BankNifty bulls. Nifty on the other hand managed to cut through the resistance, BankNifty is still undecided. This is the main reason I went with a neutral stance yesterday, even though we ended the day with 0.35% gains - the bulls are not strong yet. For tomorrow I wish to go long only if BankNifty manages to take out the 44712 interim resistance in the opening hour. Ideally, it should be able to do it as HDFC Bank was looking quite dangerous in the afternoon session. These days NiftyIT has more fluctuation and volatility than BankNifty making it an interesting candidate for FnO - Still not sure why NSE has not considered it.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
11th Oct ’23 - Nifty Cuts Through the Resistance - PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the hourly chart — India replies with 5 white soldiers to the war news (3 white soldiers means 3 strong green candles). We have not taken out the 19776 resistance so far — but we are pretty close. I wish to change my stance from neutral to bullish with the first target of 19776 and the 2nd target of 19847.” Nifty continuing from the good form it picked up from yesterday, we opened gap-up of 76pts and then went on to take out the resistance line of 19776. The low formed in the opening 5mts was not broken showing how powerful the bulls were. We rallied another 71pts to hit a high of 19839. Interestingly Nifty did not fall or retrace from these high levels. The 19800 level was proving tough to break. We had a perfect island day today above the resistance level of 19776. My bullish view continues and the next level to watch out for will be 19901 which was tested on 11th and 20th Sep. It just took 2 days to recover from the fall we had due to war - sometimes I think we have not priced in the real impact of it. Crude oil if it remains elevated will prove to be such a disaster for us as we are importers.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
10th Oct ’23 - Leader in trend changes - BankNifty PostMortemBankNifty Analysis The real reason for the rally on Nifty was BankNifty. Remember yesterday we discussed how it fell below the support of 44068 and then had an intraday rejection. We also went with a bearish view for today. The first thing the gap-up and the swing of 1st candle did was to breach the resistance. A +268pts ~ 0.61% open was more than adequate. Then till 11.55 - BankNifty was spiceless - no intent to move in either way. Then from 12.00 to 13.40 - we had pure magic. A rally of 407pts ~ 0.92% to break away from the support in style. We also came pretty close to taking out the swing high of 6th October - but the last 2 hours saw some profit-taking. BankNifty at its best - the options premium also started swinging in a wider range expecting more firepower. On the 1hr candle, we are out of bearishness but I am not bullish yet. Yes, today’s price action gives it a lot of momentum - but we need to retest the 44628 to 44731 levels and break it for bullish momentum to spike. I wish to change my stance from bearish to neutral till we get more clarity. Since we have the weekly expiry tomorrow - I hope the options premium will jump just like we did today, otherwise the options selling will not bring good bang for the buck.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram