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Postmortem

9th Oct ’23 - War news breaks support of BankNifty PostMortem BankNifty Analysis On Friday I changed my stance from bearish to neutral since we had a strong performance. We pushed through the 44068 resistance and maintained those levels. But today we dropped below that and even closed lower. Notice we took out the 44068 level in the opening 5mts candle itself. From there we hit a new swing low of 43796 and then recovered all the way up to 44068 before falling again. Sometimes the best technical indicator that is available is the support/resistance line. If BankNifty was really having good bullish strength - it would have cut through the resistance. A fall really shows weakness. On the 1hr TF BankNifty came from a double top formation and then made an isolated down day. Followed by 2 isolated up-days. Today we have another isolated down day that tested a new swing low. 43755 and 43603 levels are beneath - but not sure if we could stop there if the fall is mainly due to global macros. Since we have broken the support today, my stance will be bearish for tomorrow. Just think - why are the banks falling? No way they would have sanctioned loans to the firms in Israel right? My wildest guess is that there could be many firms that have strong business relationships with Israel, and those companies may have a higher debt:equity ratio. I am quite sure the details of exposure will come out within the next week. Are the risks evenly balanced - I guess not.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
9th Oct ’23 - Israel's War changes sentiment - PostMortem NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For Monday, I wish to continue my neutral stance but keep my options open for bullish moves. The moment 19776 is tested and broken — we can expect further participation to take Nifty much ahead. For the bears to make a comeback — the US markets have to close in DEEP RED today.” Nifty opened mega gap-down due to the shocking developments over the weekend. Israel declared it is in a state of war after Hamas fired rockets and took hostage Israeli citizens - source. No one was expecting this sharp reversal in global macro. In fact, US markets closed last Friday pretty strong. Since I am not a Geo-political expert - I have no comments on what will happen, but the financial markets usually do not like uncertainty. The greatest risk right now is crude oil as the war is in the Middle East. If other countries join this battle - the risk of further escalation cannot be ruled out and the biggest victim could be the developing countries that import OIL. Even though the chart may confuse you, we only fell 0.86% ~ 168pts in the opening 10mts and that was the low for the day. The recovery was sharp and decent and we made it up to the 61.8% retracement level. From there we started falling but gradually. There again the low set in the initial 10mts still untouched. I had to go short today - not just because the chart told me, but because I thought fundamentally the perceived risk could be much higher. Already our markets have outperformed the global peers - and this risk-on should have prompted the FIIs to pull out more money. We might have to wait for a few days for more clarity to emerge, so I thought to take some risks with some long PUT options. The 1hr chart does not show a direction yet. If 19446 was taken out today - it would have shown bearishness - but it is neutral. For true bearishness 19350 or the recent swing low has to be taken out tomorrow. Well, I have a bearish bias because of the LONG PUT option - but the charts are not showing anything so far. If we bounce back from the 19446 level tomorrow also - I may be forced to close out the position at a loss. For tomorrow I would like to go with a 50% neutral and 50% bearish option. Nifty is not technically weak - it is the global macro that is weak. In the battle for technical analysis versus fundamental analysis - fundamental always wins especially when accompanied by strong news-flow.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
6th Oct ’23 - RBI meeting status quo - PostMortem BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis I had a bearish view for today, but it played out as a bad day for the bears. The RBI MPC meeting at 10 am did not move the needle that much. Usually, the RBI Governor’s speech drives up the volatility and we have some adverse moves. There was one strong move of 250pt from 10.50 to 11.20 where we pulled back from 44500 levels. Even then the options data did not get excited - and we knew that the fall was not going to last. Rightly so, Banknifty recovered quite decently and ended the day with good gains. Let us look at some points discussed by RBI Governer today - source Keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% Continuing the withdrawal of accommodative stance GDP growth is projected at 6.5% Inflation is projected at 5.4% The US Fed rate is 5.5% and ours is still at 6.5%, keeping the rates lower is not good for a country that needs to attract foreign investments. Although he started talking about the USDINR - that conversation did not last long. If the US decides to hold these rates for a longer tenure - a major chunk of emerging market investors could flee back and invest in dollars. An accommodative stance is usually provided to stimulate growth in the economy. RBI is just withdrawing the accommodation. Its fight is not removing liquidity with full intensity, as it may impact growth. If removing liquidity was a top priority - the stance should have been more hawkish. GDP growth at 6.5% is very good - no comments on this. Inflation at 5.4% is still bad. In his speech, he said he is very particular that inflation returns to the 4% band and then he forecasted the next FY inflation around 5.2%. By Shaving off 0.2% a year - how long will it take to reach back at 4%? He also said about removing liquidity by selling Government Bonds - I am not sure how that will work. Will have to burn my midnight oil to dig deeper into it. I am changing my stance from bearish to neutral as we have managed to break the 44068 resistance. Today’s price action imparts some stability to the current levels. The next levels to watch for will be 44702 if we are going up and 44136 if we are falling.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
6th Oct ’23 - Show of Strength - PostMortem on Nifty50Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Although we had a good green day today — the body of the candle was not good enough. So I am not changing my stance from bearish to bullish instead, I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow.” Everything went in the bull’s way today. The opening was gap-up followed by a steady upward-looking rally. Even though we had the RBI MPC meeting today(we will discuss in detail in the BankNifty postmortem below) - it had nothing for the bears. As it stands Nifty has managed to come out from the bear’s grip. On the 1hr TF Nifty is still between 19446 and 19776 support/resistance levels. But the gap-up formation on consecutive days and the island formation have really shifted the sentiment from bearish to bullish. We have to take out the 19710 and 19776 levels too for a strong bullish momentum to pick-up. Mainly because we had some strong red candles at those zones. Look at the US VIX (blue) vs India VIX (orange). Global markets are at extreme fear whereas Indian markets are at extreme greed. Need to know how long this decoupling lasts. For Monday, I wish to continue my neutral stance but keep my options open for bullish moves. The moment 19776 is tested and broken - we can expect further participation to take Nifty much ahead. For the bears to make a comeback - the US markets have to close in DEEP RED today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
5th Oct ’23 - Bearish despite gap-up - PostMortem BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis BankNifty had a similar chart pattern as that of Nifty. An opening gap-up of 272pts ~ 0.6% and then a 2nd leg of rally from 10.30 of 279pts ~ 0.63%. The only difference I saw was that after the day’s high was hit - BankNifty started falling gradually whereas Nifty went flat. Tomorrow’s RBI MPC outcome at 10.00 might be interesting. We would like to see how RBI governor is planning to suck the liquidity out. The I-CRR implementation and then its withdrawal created a ruckus last time. Markets fell first and then recovered equally. If the liquidity is left unchecked - the costs of goods & services will keep getting inflated. Unlike other developed countries - we do not want to hurt the growth and the growth in inflation is not hurting us that badly. I do not wish to change my bearish stance on BankNifty despite an up day today. The M pattern at 44650 levels are looking quite strong for me and until BankNifty takes them out - I do not even plan to go neutral as well. The biggest enemy of the bears is the implied volatility - the options premiums are not expecting a massive move this week even though we have an RBI event. Option sellers are having a tough time these days - I still think it's much better not to trade than sell strikes cheaply.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
5th Oct ’23 - Gap-up takes out my stoploss Nifty PostmortemNifty Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only lost 6pts. Quite a rarity to see a flat close especially when we had some strong preceding moves. The recovery today gave Nifty a strong character change as well. It was looking a lot negative yesterday and further fall was looking obvious. Nifty Daily Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The next support level of 19310 fell short by just 0.1%. If the current momentum holds — then it should be tested and taken out by tomorrow.”. I must say - it did not go as per this plan. We not only did not break the support - but we went back and broke the resistance. Today’s move took out my stop loss and also messed around with the expiry trade. The gap-up opening of 0.5% ~ 97pts was a true show of strength. Although I am not quite sure what changed fundamentally overnight. We did not close the gap today even though we had a slight fall towards 19486 levels. Then the 2nd leg of the boost came at 10.45 which took Nifty up by 89pts ~ 0.46%. From there we almost went sideways and closed with no further drama. On the 1hr TF we have 3 distinct formations. A strong red candle on 3rd, a gap-down hammer on 4th, and then a doji today. If we had a full green body candle today - it would have been a morning star formation. A morning star formation is usually a strong bullish signal that forms at the end of a bear run. Although we had a good green day today - the body of the candle was not good enough. So I am not changing my stance from bearish to bullish instead, I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow. The support and resistance levels of 19446 and 19776 still stay as it is - a break on either side will shift my stance in that direction.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
4th Oct ’23 - HDFC spoils the expiry today- BankNifty PostMortemBankNifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has only fallen 291pts. That fall coincides with a strong support level break - which may bring in additional pain for the long-only traders. It is also significant that BankNifty broke the crucial level ahead of Nifty reiterating its position as a leading indicator. BankNifty Today’s Analysis I was pretty much disappointed today with the BankNifty’s expiry. Not because I couldnt make any money out of it, but because the premiums were all good for nothing. Even after a 450+ points fall in the opening 10mts - the implied volatility did not move an inch. Usually OTM premiums spike when BankNifty moves above 1% - but today there was absolutely nothing. 900 points lower strike 43000 PE was trading at Rs2 in the morning session. These are the premiums of strikes we see for 2000 to 2500 pts away from ATM. Most interestingly when BN was at 43880 levels by 12.30, 43500 PE was trading for Rs2.6. There is a solid reason why this happened and I will explain it in detail. HDFC Bank is the main culprit. It went up 2.53% between open and 10.30. If you look at the daily candle - HDFC shows bearishness. Two strong double tops and then a lower high formation. The true free float weightage is 40.9% - source. Which means a small trigger could change the game. Ideally, we should have had a strong down day. BankNify ended the day with cuts of 435pts ~ 0.98% - but due to the optimism on HDFCBK, the options premium were pricing in the information that further downside may be limited. The news broke today “HDFC Bank Q2 Update: Advances up 58% YoY, deposits rise 30%”. On the 1hr TF we have broken the support of 44068, yesterday’s bearish call worked out well despite the misadventure from HDFC. I would like to see if BN can cross this resistance level in the forenoon session. I still maintain the bearish stance with the next target being 43827 and then 43732.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
4th Oct ’23 - Super recovery in last 90mts - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The orange support and resistance lines remain the same, the bottom one is @ 19446, top one at 19776. We just completed an M pattern (double top) on the 1hr TF. For tomorrow I continue to remain bearish with the support getting broken in the opening 1hr. Ideally, we should retest the 19310 support if not break it.” The opening 5mts was quite powerful, quite similar to the one we had yesterday. Interestingly it took out our first support of 19446. We had a follow-through and even hit the low of 19333 but we did not retest nor break the 19310 level. The main reason for that is the counter move on HDFCBK - which spoiled the party for the bears. Our markets are not alone wherein 2 or 3 stocks can dictate the terms - such is their weightage. Just because of this, the VIX stopped surging and all of a sudden the fallen stocks started getting back on their feet to cover up the lost ground. When news flows - the technical analysis stops working. We will discuss on HDFCBK in the Banknifty expiry section below. On the 1hr TF, Nifty complied with the double top pattern and showed its vulnerability by breaking the support line. The next support level of 19310 fell short by just 0.1%. If the current momentum holds - then it should be tested and taken out by tomorrow. We also have the expiry tomorrow - which may bring in some added uncertainties.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 08 MAY 2023I am still keeping my hopes pinned on the Fibonacci levels marked as in the chart below. 43739 recent swing high, 42581 last session swing low and 43296 the 61.8% retracement level. It really looked like a short-selling setup as the bull momentum faded out after 11.15 - we went up 1.46% ~ 622pts today but it really felt like the thrust to go up further was missing. I am still not denying that the medium term trend is still bullish - but the overhang of the selling of Friday is still in the hunt. 5hr 50mts i.e barring 4 5mts candles, the rest of the trade was in a narrow range 43171 to 43390. I got the feeling that the bulls & bears has not really negotiated who is winning, thats when I checked the FIB levels. NSE:BANKNIFTY made 670pts jump in the opening 45mts of which 537pts ~ 80% of the move came inside 20mts - looks like a short covering rally. The squaring off of short CE positions were evident in the opening minutes and whoever had taken those positions overnight would have been rewarded quite well. But most of them would not have expected the range bound trade to follow after the initial spike. Since its Finnifty expiry tomorrow, there was no sign of new positions getting created to play. Guess the participants were happy to leave NSE:BANKNIFTY alone today. --- 15mts TF may have dented the hopes of few weak bears today as 2 resistances were taken out i.e. 43012 & 43253 - which leaves banknifty at a similar level as on 03 May. And most of you would remember what happened on the next day - the mighty rally of 372pts to close the ATH gap. --- 1hr even though bullish has to answer this question, will the next few sessions take NSE:BANKNIFTY below 42576 to create a lower low & make today's level as a lower high? Or will it zoom past 43750 to nullify the blip that just got created. On 5th we discussed the possibility that the news/event driven trade spoiling the technical analysis. So now we need to wait till sanity returns (mostly we will get it right on 9th May during Finnifty expiry) --- NSE:NIFTY is not looking bearish at all, its more positive than banknifty and is showing more willingness to go to 18419 levels soon. Now we all know only 1 outcome is possible - and banknifty has more than enough strength to cancel out nifty50's plans too.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram