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Postmortem

24 Jan ’24 — The Trap Laid by the Bears is Bust Open - Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “We broke the 21491 support by 12.24. Just look at the strength of the candles today — 5 RED candles followed by a Doji. Our stance changed from neutral to bearish as soon as the support was breached.” 4mts chart The open was perfect - a good gap-down followed by selling pressure, but the 2nd candle gave it away. By 09.19 - the gap was officially closed and Nifty was steaming with upside momentum. A part of me believed that the rise-up was part of the lower-high creation and that the shape of the bear attack was still intact. My conviction was cemented between 10.35 to 12.39 wherein we dropped 195+ points. What happened next was simply dramatic. Nifty rose 266pts ~ 1.25% between 12.39 to close. In total, it swung 347pts from LOD to HOD, of which 76% came after 12.39. 63mts chart The issue for the bears from the 63mts chart is the W formation (double bottom). To prove they are still in the game, the Bears must create a big fall and ensure an M pattern supersedes the W. Due to the momentum the bulls got today, we are changing the stance from bearish to neutral. The first target would be to take out the 214991 resistance and nullify the 5 RED candles formed on 23rd. If we were to move downwards, the swing low of 21372 has to be taken out tomorrow itself. Hope we have a volatile monthly expiry tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
23 Jan ’24 — Almost 1700pts fall + Support break - Bear Attack?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Banknifty fell an unbelievable 1696pts ~ 3.64% from the HOD to the LOD. As usual, the gap-up of 472pts would have painted the wrong picture today especially when the Traders came ready to play ICICI on the long side. Never in the day, we got a bullish signal today - it was a one way journey from that gap-up to the low of the day. 4mts chart The candle right at the support level of 45399 was the strongest - 215pts fall. This shows the strength the big-boys exerted today to create momentum. Were FIIs pissed off that we made them work on a Saturday? Both Nifty and BankNifty have the same stance (bearish) similar to the one we had on 17th Jan. When Both the indices are in the same direction, it should be a treat to watch. 63mts chart The next support comes at 44542 followed by 44068. The odd thing is that Global markets are so positive except China and Hong-Kong. And we do not have any bad local macro news except for the Sony-Zee saga and Govt. decision to increase the import duty on Gold & Silver. We strongly feel these positions are for the Budget 2024, If you have a better valid point - do mention it in the comments below. Also, we do not have an expiry tomorrow as both BN and N50 will have the monthly expiry on 25th. Strangely in Jan month, BankNifty’s last working day is the 31st on which it has a weekly expiry, but its monthly expiry is on 25th because Nifty’s on 25th. Some things you see only in India.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
23 Jan ’24 — 5 strong RED candles & a broken support - Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “Nifty was unable to get into the ascending channel despite results from RELIANCE and major banks. We suspect some weakness is haunting N50. It could completely be news/event-driven or related to the build-up for the budget session. The selling figures from the institutions may be because of this. From a technical analysis perspective, Nifty looks range bound between 21913 and 21491. Falling below 21491 could auto-trigger further shorts and it could even be an avalanche.” 4mts chart Last week you saw a 2% fall in Nifty and today it was just 1.54% but the “real intensity” would be missing if you just looked at the headline numbers. Today Nifty fell a whopping 559pts ~ 2.57% HOD to LOD. The gap-up would have trapped a lot of traders today. Most of them would have come ready to hit the BUY button after the euphoria from “Ayodha Temple Inauguration yesterday”. Or it could just be a profit booking as the event is over, we need to understand the run-up to this level was more than ecstatic. 63mts chart We broke the 21491 support by 12.24. Just look at the strength of the candles today - 5 RED candles followed by a Doji. Our stance changed from neutral to bearish as soon as the support was breached. The bullish channel looks broken and maybe it is time for bears to launch their attack. Ayodhya's Inauguration was on 22/1/24 and Nifty ATH is 22124 - guess both these numbers are here to stay for a while. 21038 is the next support followed by 20774.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
20 Jan ’24 — Will Quarterly results help the BankNifty bulls?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ For some or the other reason, the 4mts & 63mts charts are not visible on TradingView. It may be due to this unscheduled working day and they might be facing issues with data feeds from vendors. We had a bearish view yesterday also and despite BN ending the day today with 357pts ~ 0.78% we are still maintaining the bearish stance. 16mts chart A shallow support and resistance zone has formed between 45609 and 46025. The first critical support is unchanged at 45399 and the critical resistance at 47465. BankNifty was single-handedly responsible for limiting the losses on Nifty today - so we need to give due credit for that. But take a look at the chart - The fall from 48000+ levels did not just come because HDFCBK had poor results, it may be unwinding by FIIs considering the fiscal policy changes or reforms expectations for Budget 2024. So even if we have super duper results like the KOTAKs and ICICIs - we may not scale up that quickly. Honestly, we prefer if BN could reclaim the ATHs and support Nifty to crawl back into the channel. The US market hit a new ATH yesterday - SPX and the mood is euphoric.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
20 Jan ’24 — Probably the first working Saturday for a TraderNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The last 3 candles almost gave away the clue that bearishness was ending. We would still like to see how Nifty will open tomorrow. Ideally, it should open above 21698 i.e. within the channel to cement the idea that Bears are thrown out of control.” 4mts chart Open was right at the trendline and it acted as a resistance. Nifty was unable to breach it and it meant we would have either a flat or negative day. A lot of interesting things happened today. NiftyIT moved down and ended with -371pts ~ 1.00%. Most of them would not have noticed IT falling. The banks outperformed today, Kotak +2.41%, AUBANK +2.32%, CANBK +2.22%, PNB +2.74% & ICICI +0.95%. If not for these, Nifty would have had a serious fall today Nifty’s low today was lower than yesterday’s low and it has closed the gap from 18th Jan. The OTMs of both Nifty and BankNifty were trading in green and sometimes had unusual spikes often seen during low liquidity. Despite the quick announcement to have a working day today - the actual traded volumes or contracts were not that bad either. Initially, we thought DII and FII would not participate, but they ended up selling 719 & 545 crores today 63mts chart Nifty was unable to get into the ascending channel despite results from RELIANCE and major banks. We suspect some weakness is haunting N50. It could completely be news/event-driven or related to the build-up for the budget session. The selling figures from the institutions may be because of this. From a technical analysis perspective, Nifty looks range bound between 21913 and 21491. Falling below 21491 could auto-trigger further shorts and it could even be an avalanche. Our stance remains neutral for Tuesday, also note that Monday will be a holiday for the consecration of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
19 Jan ’24 — Are you ready for the BANKEX expiry tomorrow?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ The stance for BankNifty was bearish yesterday and it is still bearish today. The highs and lows of today were more or less matching with the levels of yesterday. Visually the price action is more negative than yesterday, the reason being the highs hit today were due to gap-up whereas yesterday’s high was via fighting it out during trading hours. 4mts chart From the highs to the lows today, there was a swing range of 688 points. Just that the gap-up hides this in plain sight, after all the index closed flat at -0.03%. The change in holiday schedule is going to impact BankNifty the most as BANKEX expiry which was on Monday will have to be conducted tomorrow. Quite sure the traders were not prepared for this event and the opening minutes could create some chaos. We are not even sure if the technical analysis will work out tomorrow. 63mts chart Look at the encircled region - all RED candles. How many analysts do you know who would say these many consecutive red candles are a bullish sign? None. Despite this, BankNifty could move up tomorrow as the news flow of holiday change was not priced in. BANKEX has a close correlation with BankNifty and logically traders would use the opening minutes to build expiry positions tomorrow. Since FIIs were not informed, they would come tomorrow unprepared. If there is sanity tomorrow and BankNifty starts moving downwards - the first level to watch out for is 45399. To go bullish - it has to climb 1765 points.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
19 Jan ’24 — Holiday Change at 7 PM? SAT working & Monday OFFNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Today’s price action has confirmed that the channel is broken, but not the support/resistance of 21491. If Nifty trades above 21491 in the morning session — the bears may really feel abandoned. Ideally, the next stop should be 21041 — that was where Nifty bounced off from the trendline on 21st Dec 2023.” The entire price action for today was totally odd. No, I am not saying this because I lost money trading today. Firstly, the decay was not there on option strikes. Secondly, The far OTM strikes of BankNifty closed at values higher than yesterday - that is a huge anomaly. Nifty OTM PUTS closed at values higher than yesterday that too when the underlying moved up 160pts ~ 0.75%. Everything made perfect sense when the news broke out that stock markets will be fully functional tomorrow 20th Jan and we will be closed on 22nd Jan Monday. Seems like we are making a fool of ourselves. Was this information passed on to the institutional desk in advance? Will the FIIs now work tomorrow and undo the positions they took for today? How will they hedge the trades as Depository Receipts will be closed on Saturday? The first thing any foreign investor would want is stability and things like these can hamper confidence. 4mts chart The open was right at the ascending channel lower trend line and our view of bearishness was still relevant as we did not breach that resistance. Interestingly, we were not falling either. FII data for today, a sell value of 3689 crore made no impact on Nifty today. Assuming a segment of people knew what was going to happen with the shift of holidays. Nifty managed to hold its ground today and because of that - we have to change the status to neutral from bearish. 63mts chart The last 3 candles almost gave away the clue that bearishness was ending. We would still like to see how Nifty will open tomorrow. Ideally, it should open above 21698 i.e. within the channel to cement the idea that Bears are thrown out of control. Also, there will be a portion of traders who would have not taken positions assuming Monday is a working day - speculating a small FOMO effect could misprice the options during the opening minutes.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
18 Jan ’24 — BankNifty bounces of from the support @ 45399 😔BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ What happened with BankNifty today was more or less as per the script. The opening 4mts gave us some idea of what to expect, the reason being the bounce from 45399 support. Even though the opening was gap-down, adequate selling pressure was not there to take out the support level. Ideally, it had to be taken out via the gap itself - and that did not happen. 4mts chart BN impressed with a midday rally of 747pts to close the gap. Later it gave away 58% of those points to close at 45762, down 350pts ~ 0.76% vs yesterday. We would not know how long this correction phase persist, deep down - we prefer to see a broader bear rally. There is a thing or two about the bear market. Have you seen videos of how Bear catches fish in the river? It goes to those areas called rapids where the Fish has to jump to escape the current. The bear has to just stand at those levels with his mouth wide open - the fish automatically goes straight in as it cannot maneuver mid-air. Bear market price action is more or less similar - the retail traders are helpless and out of the driving seat. If they survive, it will just be at the mercy of the big boys. 63mts chart The stance is still bearish and the first target is 45399 and it has to be taken out pretty soon. The longer we wait out, the dip buyers will re-emerge. Other support areas nearby are 44542 and 44068 - if the momentum carries, then we should be testing them this month itself.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
18 Jan ’24 — FIIs sold 20000 CR in 2 days, Nifty50 in trouble?Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 191pts ~ 0.88%. This does not seem to showcase what really happened during this week. We hit a new lifetime high of 22124 and then fell 839pts ~ 3.8% in 2 days. Something that we rarely see with Nifty. 16mts chart Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “Yesterday Nifty was at the top end of the ascending channel and today it closed right at the bottom end. From 26th Oct 2023, Nifty has always respected the bottom part of the ascending channel. The next support comes up at 21491 and falling below that would also mean we are breaking the channel.” 4mts chart The gap down ensured we broke the support at 21491. Further price action suggested that we may have some deep cuts today, but strangely Nifty reversed right at 10.00 at 21285 level. Not sure whether it was DIP buying, but we went past the resistance zone of 21491 by 11.59. Nifty did not have enough strength to get back into the ascending channel - but it managed to close near the SR level showing some respite. FIIs sold over 20000 crores of equity over the last 2 days. When was the last time we had this high volume of selling? 20-25k crore is the approx. volume of transactions they do for a whole month - we got that in 2 days. What do they know that we retail traders don't? 63mts chart Today’s price action has confirmed that the channel is broken, but not the support/resistance of 21491. If Nifty trades above 21491 in the morning session - the bears may really feel abandoned. Ideally, the next stop should be 21041 - that was where Nifty bounced off from the trendline on 21st Dec 2023. Our stance continues to be bearish until proven wrong.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
17 Jan ’24 — BankNifty & Nifty are both bearish now - Consensus BankNifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has fallen 1274 points ~ -2.69%. It may not look so dangerous, but keep in mind we had a swing range of 2328pts ~ 4.82% between the high to the low of the week. Of these 2328pts, 2060pts ~ 88.4% came just today. 16mts chart BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ We opened 1423pts ~ -2.96% gap down today. The first 2 candles were green showing some fightback to reclaim the 47465 S/R which we just broke. BankNifty’s support break was the major highlight anyway - It was right below the bullish trend line and above the bearish trend line yesterday. The breakdown from there was the real impact. 4mts chart The option prices were absolutely crazy, especially on the CALL side. The premiums remained elevated right till 15.00. The PUT options on the other hand (far OTM) had given up the premiums even though it had some unusual surge in the opening minutes. Most of the traders would not have capitalized on the premium spike as by the time they punched the orders, the premium would have evaporated. 63mts chart The price action today paves the way for further downward action. Primarily both Nifty and BankNifty are in the same stance (bearish) and secondly, N50 has just violated the ascending channel whereas BN steered clear on 1st Jan. The biggest issue is that the next support comes at 45399 followed by 44542 and both indicate steep cuts.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
17 Jan ’24 — How the Mighty has fallen! HDFCBK takes down N50 ⬇️Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday “We would like to give one more opportunity for Nifty to hold its ground. We would start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and wait for Nifty to fall below 21913 to go bearish.” 4mts chart Not only did Nifty50 open 360pts gap-down, but it broke the 21913 support. This was the laxman rekha for us below which we had to go bearish. It all started when HDFCBK -8.44% started giving up points like crazy. The results announced were alright per se, but the signs of NPA going up and EPS staying the same would have unnerved the FIIs. Nifty ended up losing another 100pts to close at -2.09%. When was the last time you saw a 2% or more fall in Nifty50. Even when SPX and NDQ had multiple episodes of 2%+ falls, Nifty50 was showcasing its resilience. 63mts chart Yesterday Nifty was at the top end of the ascending channel and today it closed right at the bottom end. From 26th Oct 2023, Nifty has always respected the bottom part of the ascending channel. The next support comes up at 21491 and falling below that would also mean we are breaking the channel. We changed the stance from neutral to bearish in the opening minutes, hope you got the email via TradingView minds when we pivoted.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
16 Jan ’24 — BankNifty is < bullish & > bearish trendline ➡️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty was sailing smoothly till 12.59 today when it fell below a weak trend line. Till then it was holding its end of the bargain when the sectors around it were falling, most noticeably NiftyIT. Yesterday we changed the stance of BN from neutral to bullish - but we did not get the required pump-up today, hence we are reverting back to the neutral stance. 4mts chart BN fell close to 302pts ~ 0.63% between 12.03 and 13.35 - it was during this phase that it breached the shallow trend line. Even though that trend line is insignificant in the grand scheme of things, it may be more than enough to discourage the weak bulls. Surprisingly, BN did not fall below the 47996 zone which would have meant pure bearishness. 63mts chart The chart may look complex with many lines crisscrossing, but it is simple to understand. The line connecting 47010 to 48265 is the shallow trend line formed due to the bullish move from the 10th of Jan. The flatter downward-sloping line from the ATH & connecting the peaks is a bearish trend line. Right now BN is below the bullish line and above the bearish line, if it falls further we go into the bearish zone. If the chart felt too complicated - drop in a comment & we will be happy to help.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
16 Jan ’24 — Nifty Tests the Ascending Channel Today - stance ➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Remember how things were looking weak on the 8th and 10th of Jan and how Nifty turned from there? For tomorrow, the bullish stance continues and the first support will be the ascending channel top-line ~ 22050 levels.” 4mts chart Nifty hit a new top of 22124 today and just when everything was going in its favor, it started falling. Most analysts will blame the NiftyIT sector (-1.28%) for the fall today - they are not wrong but it is not just because of IT. The majority of the Nifty sub-sectors were down today, Realty (-1.66%), Pharma (-1.14%), Energy (-0.75%), Service (-0.52%). Very few sectors were in green today - Metal, Media, Consumer Durables, PSU banks, etc. When the majority of sectors are against the primary direction (bullish), it may end up becoming a top-like formation. We discussed yesterday how the Ascending Channel will act like support, on the 4mts TF we got a breach today. 22050 was our laxman rekha but we ended up hitting 21969. 63mts chart The channel top is not breached in the higher TF, just because of this we are not changing the stance from bullish to bearish. We would like to give one more opportunity for Nifty to hold its ground. We would start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and wait for Nifty to fall below 21913 to go bearish.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
15 Jan ’24 — BankNifty stance change from neutral to bullish 🐂BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ BankNifty also gets a stance upgrade from neutral to bullish today. After we crossed the 47539 resistance, its level as support never got tested. Today’s gap-up was not so visible for the banks - but the price action was more healthy. 4mts chart The stance change came only in the last 15 minutes or so when BankNifty started to shift the gears. 48250 was a level I was watching for. Even though we did not breach it today, the momentum banknifty showed in the last 1 hour was more than satisfactory to change the stance. 63mts chart The last candle made all the difference today, that is the secret ingredient for the change of stance. For tomorrow, the first thing BN has to do is take out the 48422 levels and if possible get a new ATH. The quarterly results from the component stocks will have a huge role to play. Look what the results of TCS, INFY, WIPRO, HCLTECH did to the NiftyIT sector - it almost went up 9% in the last 2 sessions.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
15 Jan ’24 — Bullish reinforcements are on the way! Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Till yesterday, we were looking for neutral trades with a possibility of going down. See how the tables have turned today. For Monday — we need to look out for bullish opportunities now.” 4mts chart Another gap-up of 131pts ~ 0.6% today! It was required to break the channel resistance line. There was a minor fall, but the 22000 level provided early support and we kept the gap unclosed. Once Nifty50 found its balance, it rallied steadily for the day and closed near the highs. The new ATH is 22111. 63mts chart The break away from the channel is evident in the 63mts chart. See the points Nifty is climbing every time it gets a stance upgrade from neutral to bullish. Remember how things were looking weak on the 8th and 10th of Jan and how Nifty turned from there? For tomorrow, the bullish stance continues and the first support will be the ascending channel top-line ~ 22050 levels.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
12 Jan ’24 — BankNifty goes neutral, Euphoria missing unlike ITBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNify opens above the resistance area of 47539 and then briefly falls below that till 09.59. When the entire IT sector was screaming GREEN, Banks were keeping lull. BN had its proper resistance break at 10.07. From there it made 2-legged rise to 47873 before giving away 270pts between 14.39 to 15.07. 4mts chart link We are impressed by BankNifty’s bull attack today that allowed the stance to change from bearish to neutral. But we still do not think it is a bullish case per se. A rising tide does lift all the boats. NiftyIT opened the floodgates of gains today and there would have been some spillover effects on other sectors. We will wait for the euphoria to cool off on Monday and re-evaluate the stance. 63mts chart link BankNifty is still neutral, the breakthrough of resistance has given a positive sentiment to it today - but it did not have the kind of momentum to go up. Take a look at FinNifty - it was flatter than BankNifty today. For Monday, the first thing BankNifty has to do is defend the support of 47539. The bulls will eventually drive it up if they get the confidence that the support is intact.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
12 Jan ’24 — Traders are cold-blooded, Bias changed to Bullish🐂Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday “Nifty looks perfectly neutral from here, the moment the support of 21491 gives away — we can start looking for bearish opportunities. To go bullish the ATH has to be taken out. With the IT majors TCS and INFY declaring the results — we should have a strong swing direction tomorrow.” 4mts chart link Major highlights today Gap-up of 120pts ~ 0..56% NiftyIT gains 5.14% Nifty50 takes out the ATH, new value = 21928 Nifty goes from neutral to bullish Today’s stop came right at the ascending channel top-line Never seen NiftyIT so stubborn to go up, a gain of 5.14% far exceeds expectations, and that too when the IT majors are at their all-time highs. What we still do not understand is the reason for outperformance when the results were average. Anyway, this was the major reason Nifty50 broke out from the neutral zone to the bullish zone. 63mts chart link Today’s price action was along the top trend line of the ascending channel, and careful enough not to break it. There is no shame in saying traders are cold-blooded. We cannot stick with our bias, direction, or opinions and expect the market to behave as per our analysis. If the markets have turned, we need to adapt. Till yesterday, we were looking for neutral trades with a possibility of going down. See how the tables have turned today. For Monday - we need to look out for bullish opportunities now.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
11 Jan ’24 — The bulls of BankNifty has run out of fuel!BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Look at what the Gap-up did today to BankNifty, it messed around with the resistance level of 47539. Was it a genuine break? Absolutely NO. Would that have shocked the Bears? Absolutely YES. Gaps are the easiest option available for the manipulators to scare off the retail crowd. 4mts chart link Again the 280+pts quick dip between 14.03 to 14.15 looked quite serious. But the dip buyers made it look like a blip over the next 15 minutes or so. Looks like BN has run out of fuel for any upmoves. 63mts chart link BankNifty is really waiting for a trigger to fall. The tiredness of the bulls is a welcome message for the bears to do their thing. Our stance continues to be bearish for tomorrow despite the neutral day today. Only when the stance of both Nifty50 and BankNifty is in the same direction - we can expect a trending market. Nifty50 could pick a direction due to NiftyIT results tomorrow, if it is down - then it will pull banknifty along with it.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
11 Jan ’24 — Gap-up spoils the market dynamics, Nifty PostMortemNifty Weekly Analysis The close we had on 4th Jan was 21669.6, the close today is 21669.4. Nifty moved -0.2pts this expiry. Unbelievably flat! Would have been a dream come true for traders who took home short iron fly & short straddle last week. 16mts chart link Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday “The last candle which is strongly GREEN is standing out. It looks like the 21491 support is respected for now. If we fall below that tomorrow, we will not hesitate to switch back the stance to bearish.” 4mts chart link See how the gap-up changed the dynamics today. Firstly, there was nothing special to have a gap-up of 68pts. Secondly, this got sold into but the selling was not aggressive enough to bring down the markets lower than yesterday’s close. The price move from 14.03 to 14.11 where we got a fall of 75pts looked like a warning shot. Surprisingly there was someone at the other end, buying all of those dips. Despite those swings, the options premium were all dead and good for nothing. Far OTM sellers would have fell asleep watching the charts today. 63mts chart link Nifty looks perfectly neutral from here, the moment the support of 21491 gives away - we can start looking for bearish opportunities. To go bullish the ATH has to be taken out. With the IT majors TCS and INFY declaring the results - we should have a strong swing direction tomorrow. Our stance stays neutral.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
10 Jan ’24 — Banks did not have the bull-punch today despite N50BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BN fell 383pts and most importantly breached a support level (47539). Even though the start of the week was good, the bulls gave away the control to the bears by Friday. 16mts chart link BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Unlike Nifty50, BankNifty did not have a strong pullback today. There was no wedge like formation, but the negativity was missing totally. The open was gap-down from which BN recovered decently and then remained range bound. BN was trading in green for most of the time today. 4mts chart link BN is not out of the bearish hold yet. The first thing that has to be taken care of is the 47539 resistance and the best way to take that out is via a gap up. It has become quite predictable these days, the way to go past a level is via a gap-up or gap-down. Neither the bulls nor the bears have the nerve to battle it out during the trading day. 63mts chart link Our stance remains bearish even for tomorrow. Will switch to neutral if we have a 63mts candle above the resistance level marked in blue. Even though we have the Nifty50 expiry tomorrow, the options premiums are looking pretty dead. Hoping BN strikes will have some juice for tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
10 Jan ’24 — 163pts pullback from a wedge - Nifty50 goes neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday “Interesting price action formed at the current levels. Seems like where we are right now is a crucial support/resistance zone that could decide the next trend. Our call of bearishness will continue until N50 can break through the channel top line.” 4mts chart link Even without breaking the upper trend line, we had to change the stance from bearish to neutral today. The ball was in bear’s court today and they did not score. A small falling wedge pattern created a short squeeze that took N50 161pts ~ 0.75% higher. Credits to RELIANCE that contributed to ~ 40pts today. Momentum is everything in a trend, we will wait and watch how Nifty50 reacts to the expiry day tomorrow. 63mts chart link The last candle which is strongly is GREEN is standing out. Looks like the 21491 support is respected for now. If we fall below that tomorrow, we will not hesitate to switch back the stance to bearish. What the dominant animal is tomorrow - bear or bull is totally dependent on the opening 15mts.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
09 Jan ’24 — BankNifty made the BEARS🐻 proud today ! BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ BankNifty was more sensible today. Firstly the gap-up was not so huge to scare away the bears - so they hung around. Secondly, there was no breakaway momentum, by 11.07 things were getting pretty clear that the upmove ran out of steam. 4mts chart link And when the selling came, it was ferocious. Bears also had to make sure the support level of 47539 had to be taken out with style. The RED candles near that price zone are ample proof of that. The fall was over 782pts ~ 1.63% which took BN into RED. Nifty on the other hand stayed in green thanks to NiftyIT, LT, and ADANI group. 63mts chart link Since we have the BN expiry tomorrow, it may be a treat to watch how the strike price premiums could surge. India VIX was not favoring the bears today, if we have a strong price action in the forenoon the IV is bound to add to the momentum. Our stance of bearishness continues with the first target of 46931 followed by 46574.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
09 Jan ’24 — For a moment we thought the bearish had vanishedNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “The breach of the upper trend line of the ascending channel is quite visible in the higher time frame. Ideally, it is not a pure bearish signal as we are technically still in the bull market. We are changing the stance to bearish from neutral for the ultra-short-term only. If Nifty50 manages to crawl back up the top line — we will have to reverse the stance to neutral.” 4mts chart link Why did we really gap-up 144pts today? Was it because of the US markets which closed in strong green yesterday? Seriously we do not see any other reason and what it did was to scare the bears. The bears who had shorted 21500, 21600, and 21700 CE were on their toes today, shocked by the gap-up followed by a rising price action till 12.35. The real deal was to watch the top line of the channel - N50 did not have enough power to surpass it and the longer it stood there, it was easier for the bears to regain control. We then fell a whopping 205pts ~ 0.95%. Even though we did not close in the RED, the price action in the afternoon rhymed with yesterday's bearish call. 63mts chart link Interesting price action formed at the current levels. Seems like where we are right now is a crucial support/resistance zone that could decide the next trend. Our call of bearishness will continue until N50 can break through the channel top line.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram