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Postmortem

08 Jan ’24 — Nifty Breaks the Trendline This Time — PostMortemNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “Our stance is still neutral with equal possibilities in either direction. Since Nifty50 is following the ascending channel’s top trend line — the chances of going up look more probable. To go down — we need news flow/event as there is no technical weakness.” 4mts chart link The gap up open today and a thrust upwards gave the false impression that we might have an up day. What happened on the contrary was a breach of the trend line. See the circled portions on the chart. At 09.47 the attempt was unsuccessful but at 10.51 the support gave away. Once we breached it, the price action started to pick up momentum. 63mts chart link The breach of the upper trend line of the ascending channel is quite visible in the higher time frame. Ideally, it is not a pure bearish signal as we are technically still in the bull market. We are changing the stance to bearish from neutral for the ultra-short-term only. If Nifty50 manages to crawl back up the top line - we will have to reverse the stance to neutral. In case Nifty manages to fall further - it will be interesting to see how it reacts to the bottom line of the channel.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
05 Jan ’24 — BankNifty gets a sharp reversal at 14.19 & pulls UPBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty opened inline and was looking quite decent till 10.07. The fall that came after that took out 559pts ~ 1.16%. Not quite sure what triggered that fall. Due to this, the impact was felt even on Nifty50. NiftyIT was roaring green at one end and then BankNifty underperforming at the other. 4mts chart link Remember, we changed our stance from bearish to neutral yesterday and this fall started creating conflicting thoughts in our mind. What if the price action we had yesterday was a blip? But we got the right answers between 14.15 to 14.31 when Nifty50 managed to pull back. This also lifted BankNifty to ensure a flat closing for today. 63mts chart link The neutral stance continues. On the downside, we have protection at 47539, and on the upside, the channel bottom line will prove as a minor resistance. As long as BN stays between these two, we will be glad to look out for non-directional option strategies.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
05 Jan ’24 —Nifty50 takes support at the trendlineNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The first thing we had to do was to change the stance from bearish to neutral. To go bullish we need some more momentum, if it comes up in the forenoon session — I will update you via TV minds.” 4mts chart link Two things happened today A gap-up open - which did not make any sense. The rejection from the trend line - that made every sense. We repeated this earlier - our markets may be the only one that frequently opens gap-up or gap-down. The bulk of the action happens outside of the trading hours - seems like we need to grow up & mature. Today’s gap-up did not make any sense, even the opening candle. By 10.35 we lost the steam and started falling. Took a minor pause at 11.15 and then by 13.55 we went underwater. We got a nice rejection right at the trend line between 14.15 to 14.31. We are quite sure that many traders would have thought we might be falling further and that's when the reversal came. It was so intuitive to watch Nifty50 take support at the trendline and retrace the fall. Finally, we ended the day with a gain of 0.24% 63mts chart link Our stance is still neutral with equal possibilities in either direction. Since Nifty50 is following the ascending channel’s top trend line - the chances of going up look more probable. To go down - we need news flow/event as there is no technical weakness.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
04 Jan ’24 — Banks does the powerlifting for the reversal todayBankNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ The powerlifting was done by BankNifty today. The Bajaj Finserv and Finance were on fire today and were propelling FinNifty to a higher variance than BankNifty earlier in the day. However, the close ensured the variance was less than 0.2% 4mts chart link Honestly, we did not see this coming. The setup was perfect for a Bear run, the first hour of trade almost froze us so that we could not build onto expiry positions on Nifty. Since the stop loss was hit, we had to make multiple adjustments to stay in green. Was this a turn of events or a blip is something we are not completely sure of? Ideally, the bear run was just starting, and it would be sad if it ran out like this. 63mts chart link It is prudent to draw a new support line at 47539, the level from where we got the inflection today. To reclaim bullishness, BankNifty has to re-enter the ascending channel. If that happens tomorrow then the level to beat is 48700 which would mean it will take out the ATH. Since we changed the stance to neutral from bearish, a sensible move would be to go sideways without breaking the support of 47539.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
04 Jan ’24 — Unexpected reversal takes out my Stop Loss - NiftyNifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty50 has fallen only 99pts ~ 0.46%. Credits to the recovery today that made up 141 of the lost points. N50 also has managed to bounce off the channel top line indicating further signs of strength. 63mts chart link Nifty Today Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from Yesterday: “On the higher time frame, you can see how N50 is just entering the channel. If the conditions stay like this for tomorrow — we can see a good trending move tomorrow. The first threat to keep in mind is the rejection that came on 21st Dec when N50 bounced from the channel topline.” 4mts chart link We were totally shocked to see a gap-up open of 89pts ~ 0.42% followed by a strong intent to go up. Since yesterday, we have been looking for bearish opportunities and what the gap-up open did was to take out the stop loss. Just like the 21st Dec, we got a perfect bounce off from the trend line showing sheer strength. Bears like me got trapped and were running for cover, this made the followthrough rally much easier today. A total swing of 161pts ~ 0.75% for today. And that too when NiftyIT was flashing red and green. BankNifty took the bulk of the weight today. 63mts chart link The first thing we had to do was to change the stance from bearish to neutral. To go bullish we need some more momentum, if it comes up in the forenoon session - I will update you via TV minds. Kindly make sure you are following @viswaram handle to get the updates via email.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
03 Jan ’24 — BankNifty holds the line today, Bears still around.BankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis BN just fell 742pts ~ 1.53% between the last expiry and today, logically it got only 4 working days as the last expiry was on a Thursday. A 742pts move is nothing considering the shape BN is currently in. Since the stance is now bearish, we are hoping for a build-up in the momentum soon. 63mts chart link BankNifty Today Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ So both BN and N50 have the same stance of “bearish” now. Usually, when the directional bias is the same for both these indices, we expect the markets to cover some ground quickly. 4mts chart link Except for the opening candle, BN had a pretty boring day otherwise. BN was keeping the losses under control on Nifty. And the banks ICICIBANK, AXISBANK & KOTAKBANK were trending in the opposite direction of HDFCBANK. Yesterday it was the real opposite - HDFC was staying cool while the others were dropping. The expiry was meaningful today with frequent surges of volatility swinging the strike premiums. Even though BN managed to tread above water for some time, there were no visible signs of a bullish recovery. 16mts chart link We are quite safely away from the channel now. To renter it, BN will have to rise to 48600+ tomorrow. If it doesn't, then it's in the bear’s control. We continue to look for shorting opportunities with the first target as 47006.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
03 Jan ’24 — Nifty gets a stance change, Bears are back!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “The first target for a trend change will be the breach of the ascending channel top line approx 21530 levels. From a technical analysis perspective, we had the 3 black crows at 14.30 yesterday and the first 2 candles today.“ 4mts chart link We got our first target of 21530 hit today and as soon as the channel top line got breached - the stance changed to bearish. Technically Nifty is far ahead of BankNifty as N50 has only broken into the channel whereas BN has broken out. The status change is just because of momentum that is favoring the Bears. Come 2024 and they are back! 4mts chart link NiftyIT deserves a special mention, it fell a whopping 2.59% today. There is severe competition going on between NiftyIT and BankNifty on who wants to become the “leader” in trend reversals. 63mts chart link On the higher time frame, you can see how N50 is just entering the channel. If the conditions stay like this for tomorrow - we can see a good trending move tomorrow. The first threat to keep in mind is the rejection that came on 21st Dec when N50 bounced from the channel topline. Global macros are much worse today and we are hoping tomorrow’s expiry should belong to the bears. Our first target will be 21409 and then 21310.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
02 Jan ’24 — BankNifty below the channel, Bears taking control?BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish All checkboxes ticked for a bearish trend reversal. Firstly, we got confirmation when we breached the ascending channel bottom line. Secondly, there was no attempt to retrace once we started falling. The low of the day was hit towards the end of session. 4mts chart link - click here BankNifty has been the torchbearer for the trend reversals. Of late we were worried that the baton may be passed on to NiftyIT. The leader earlier and now is still BankNifty - today’s move was quite indicative of that. If it goes as per the script, we should be seeing further followthrough by Nifty & FinNifty tomorrow. 63mts chart link - click here The last time we tried to breach the channel bottom line was on 21st Dec. It ended up as a trap for the bears. This time around, we have 6 candles created below the bottom line, and 5 of them in RED. Hope is not a keyword, but the bears have to cling to something to create momentum. We have anyway revised the stance to bearish with the first target being 47462 followed by 46939.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
02 Jan ’24 — A Breakdown in Progress? 3 black crowsNifty Analysis - Stance: Neutral Recap from yesterday: “The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation.” 4mts chart link - click here The last 30mts action yesterday was not a blip, we got some continuity today. Nifty50 fell 199pts ~ 0.92% intraday to 21555 by 10.39 and then retraced 50% of that fall. The real impact was on BankNifty and not Nifty. Just like we often say, during trend reversals - BankNifty takes the lead and then Nifty50 follows. We did change the stance on BankNifty to bearish today (more on that in a while). Even NiftyIT took some beating today, the positive contributors to Nifty50 were BAJFINANCE, RELIANCE, and ADANIPORTS. In fact, BAJFINANCE was the main reason FinNifty and BankNifty had a variance of 0.46% today. 63mts chart link - click here We would like to maintain the stance on Nifty to neutral itself. The first target for a trend change will be the breach of the ascending channel top line approx 21530 levels. From a technical analysis perspective, we had the 3 black crows at 14.30 yesterday and the first 2 candles today. The last time we had a breakdown i.e. on 20th Dec, Nifty50 took support at the channel top line - so we must breach that now for extra confirmation.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
01 Jan ’24 — Banks not happy with a "Happy New Year 2024"We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions. BankNifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral BankNifty was not able to break away from the lower channel line. Normally BN swings from the lower boundary to the upper boundary and follows a good correlation with the ascending channel. The last 30mts of fall ensured we broke the lower trend line. Ideally, the stance had to change to bearish - but we ran out of time for a full 63mts candle to form. 4mts chart link - click here The fall was 408pts ~ 0.84% deep. The red candle that took out the channel trend line had a drop of 154pts. Both BankNifty and FinNifty were looking quite weak today - not sure of the reasons though. When NiftyIT turned and went into strong green - the banks also started lending support to Nifty50. And when the fall came, it was all banks. 63mts chart link - click here The last candle closed below the channel, but the body is still touching the trend line. Just because of this reason - we decided to go with a neutral stance instead of bearish. The opening hours tomorrow will give us more clues anyway. FinNifty has expiry tomorrow and the stakes will be quite high for the banks to perform.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
01 Jan ’24 — Shocking Last 30mts like a Tsunami — Nifty50We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “ 60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24 ” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions Nifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral Recap from yesterday: “Nifty is still way above the ascending channel showing bullishness. As long as the soft support level of 21652 is respected, we do not wish to change the stance.” 4mts chart link - click here Everything was going as per the plan, we even hit a new all-time high of 21834, but the last 30mts of price action was more severe than a Tsunami. Earlier in the day, was quite disheartened to hear the 7.6 Earthquake in Japan and the Tsunami alert. During those hours even Nikkei 225 futures were trading flat. We were watchful for any spillover effect to our markets but got nothing. BankNifty options flow was suggesting bearishness right from the start, the calls were unusually overpriced vs the puts indicating a higher number of CE credit spreads getting written (bearish). NiftyIT 4 mts chart - click here NiftyIT was trading in RED, so we almost gave up the hope of having a new ATH today. After a while, NiftyIT turned and turned quite big - the reversal was 536pts ~ 1.52% from the day’s low. And when NiftyIT reversed, it gave enough fuel for Nifty50 to take out the recent swing high and reach for new highs today. 63mts chart link - click here The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation. Just for this reason, we are changing the stance from bullish to neutral for tomorrow. We will revisit the stance during trading hours tomorrow, if it was just a blip then we should be having a new ATH tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
29 Dec ‘23 - Banks took a break, still a Happy NEW YEAR close.BankNifty Analysis: Stance - Bullish Banks were appearing pretty lousy today, the fall did not halt at 10.11 today when Nifty50 found its support. BankNifty went further down and got its rejection only at the bottom level of the ascending channel. 4mts chart link - click here We have never seen an ascending channel that works with so much perfection. Yesterday BN finished on the top line, the gap-down opening tipped the scale in the bear’s favor but was run out at the bottom level. Interestingly only BankNifty took the beating, FinNifty ended the day much better (exact 0.22% loss closing as of N50). 63mts chart link - click here You can notice how beautifully BankNifty is respecting the channel. As long as we do not break the lower trend line, the bullish case is still intact. Thank you for staying with me this year. Your readership, comments, and suggestions are always appreciated. Wish you a happy and prosperous NEW YEAR 2024.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
29 Dec ‘23 - Nifty Still Bullish, A Great Happy Near Year to ALLNifty Analysis - Stance: Bullish Recap from yesterday: “Nifty is definitely on cloud 9, the newfound momentum is intact and almost all the sectorial indices are strong. What next? Is a big question. Just like a goods train, it is difficult to stop the bull run that fast. For tomorrow, I wish to continue my bullish stance with the first support level at 21652.” 4mts chart link - click here It seems the bulls were not in the mood to rally today. We gave up some gains early in the day and at 21683 levels we found a shallow support. We again retested those levels by 14.19 only to reject the fall. Connecting the dots with yesterday’s price action - it appeared to be a neutral day with the trades in a narrow range. What a year Nifty had in 2023, today was the last working day in the calendar year and the first working day of Q4 expiry. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty is still way above the ascending channel showing bullishness. As long as the soft support level of 21652 is respected, we do not wish to change the stance. Meanwhile, we need to be mindful of any global macros that could develop over the weekend as New Year’s usually brings about some odd surprises.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
28th Dec ’23 - 94% of Q3 gains came in DEC - BankNifty AmazingBankNifty Quarterly Analysis Surprisingly BankNifty rose only 9.56% ~ 4232pts compared to 11.6% by Nifty. There are 2 reasons for this. RBI’s I-CRR and CAR weight adjustments decisions rocked the boat and BN fell much more than N50 NiftyIT rose to the occasion and supported N50, in the same period NiftyIT gained almost 12% 1D chart link - click here BankNifty Monthly Analysis 94% of the Quarterly gains came in the December series alone. It was like a relay race and during the last lap, BN ran so fast that it made up for the losses in the earlier 2 months. 1D chart link - click here BankNifty Analysis The gap up really helped BankNifty to cross the top boundary of the ascending channel. After that happened, all BN had to do today was to resist falling below that inclined support level. In fact BN did that beautifully today and in the process hit a new ATH of 48636. 4mts chart link - click here The monthly options expiry is much better than the weekly ones. Primarily because the premiums are pretty high when Nifty and BankNifty have expiry on the same day. From a trader’s perspective, the earnings are directly proportional to the premiums the strike carries. During volatile expiries like today, the premium is too sugary to resist. 63mts chart link - click here BN trade above the ascending channel top line is not that clear from the chart as the line is seen as cutting it through. On a lower TF, you can clearly see the difference. For tomorrow also, we are going with the bullish stance.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
28th Dec ’23 - New ATH on the last day of the Quarter & MonthNifty Quarterly Analysis Nifty has gained 2263pts ~ 11.6% in the 3rd Quarter of FY2023-24. Almost on 9 particular days, we hit new all-time highs. 1D chart link - click here Nifty Monthly Analysis Surprisingly 70% of the gains for the Q3 came in the December series. We rose 8.21% ~ 1653pts. 8 out of the 9 ATH breaks also came in the Dec series. It really was a December to remember for the bulls. 1D chart link - click here Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Nifty has created another bullish trend line above the ascending channel. The level of euphoria is beyond compare & N50 has managed to give stellar returns this calendar year. Anyway — I will be hoping for a bullish continuation and a new top for tomorrow.” 4mts chart link - click here On the last day of the month and Q3, Nifty makes a new all-time high of 21801. So the magic level of 21800 is conquered. Guessing most of the buying would have been propelled by the FIIs and that too after 14.59. India VIX went over 16% but ended the day at 15.14. I feel like the Bears have lost control of the situation here, not just that they can check the bull runs but are ceding territory far too easily. Investors really love bull markets, their portfolio grows greener day by day. But from a trading perspective, a high level of euphoria is dangerous. The CALL options of the 04 Jan series were trading 25 to 40% higher than usual rates. The collapse of this excess in the last 15mts would have taken many traders by surprise. When we place market orders - we seldom realize the “fair value” of strikes. 63mts chart link- click here Nifty is definitely on cloud 9, the newfound momentum is intact and almost all the sectorial indices are strong. What next? Is a big question. Just like a goods train, it is difficult to stop the bull run that fast. Global markets are also at all-time-high levels and the macros are improving. For tomorrow, I wish to continue my bullish stance with the first support level at 21652.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
27th Dec ’23 -BankNifty gets a NEW ATH inside the ASC. channelBankNifty Analysis BankNifty is still caught between the upper & lower end of the ascending channel. Even then it managed to scale to a new all-time high of 48347. Half of the traders would have thought BN would have expiry today, the best way to remember would be to use post-it-notes saying BN expires with Nifty on the last week of the month. 4mts chart link - click here BN also had a slight gap-up, but the leg1 of the rally was quite strong. We gained 480pts ~ 1.01% till 12.07 before giving away 356pts ~ 0.74%. Leg2 it rallied 458pts ~ 0.96% but not enough to break out of the channel top line. 63mts chart link - click here Once BN got back into the channel - it is finding it difficult to break down or break away. Somehow the boundaries are getting respected. BN hitting a new top ensured that the stance changed from neutral to bullish. I am seriously thinking if the momentum is intact we should be getting that channel breakout tomorrow. Since it is a monthly expiry a bit of volatility cannot be ruled out as well.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
27th Dec ’23 - Nifty & BankNifty stance changed to BullishNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I am forced to change my stance from bearish to neutral as the price action now shows a higher tendency to go up rather than down. Those strong RED candles of 20th Dec still haunt me — but it has failed to gather the momentum of the other bears.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty got a stance change from bearish to neutral yesterday and look what happened today, once we took out the ATH - the followthrough momentum pumped another 75+ pts. Trading was not profitable for me today even though the charts do not show any visual proof of anomalies. I guess it had more to do with the VIX staying so high that the premiums were not behaving as usual. We had a gap up followed by a steadily rising price to take out the ATH by 12.03. This prompted me to change my stance from neutral to bullish. Then we fell 97pts almost giving me a shock. For a moment I thought my decision to change the stance was a blunder. I got the reassurance only when we had the 2nd leg of the rally that surged 170pts ~ 0.79% to take Nifty to a new ATH of 21675. Later I came to know those solid green candles at 14.59 to 15.07 were resultants of FII buying. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty has created another bullish trend line above the ascending channel. The level of euphoria is beyond compare & N50 has managed to give stellar returns this calendar year. We just have one more day for the monthly, and quarterly expiry. I am not quite sure by what time I will be able to write the report tomorrow as it is my wife’s birthday. Anyway - I will be hoping for a bullish continuation and a new top for tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
26th Dec ’23 - BankNifty stance changed to neutral, IV going upBankNifty Analysis Was quite surprised to see BankNifty following the ascending channel’s bottom trendline with a near correlation. Only for a brief period, we traded in RED, once BN pulled itself above water - it was able to hold its level quite strongly. 4mts chart link - click here KOTAKBANK, AXISBANK, and HDFCBANK were trading in green giving BN a much-needed green cushion. Even then there was no strong bullish momentum today - it was just that the bears did not have any control today. 63mts chart link - click here On the higher timeframe, BN is still inside the ascending channel. The bears are unable to exert any pressure post 20th December. Since BN is not ceding ground, I have to change my status from bearish to neutral for tomorrow. This week BankNifty and Nifty are expiring together on Thursday, which means we have no instruments expiring tomorrow 27th Dec. India VIX rose 7.08% today almost touching the 15 levels. Looks like VIX is creating an interim bottom. My EMA’s will show a golden crossover in 2 days if we continue the rising trend. After the news broke out about the drone attack on 2 vessels carrying Indian nationals - I seriously thought we would have a negative reaction today. Seems like the markets were not at all bothered. My next question is, will the market react to this news tomorrow? - “blast outside the Israel embassy in Delhi” VIX 1D chart - click here
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
26th Dec ’23 - Positive Day with a rising VIX - PostMortem NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since Monday is a holiday, it gives us added uncertainty on what to expect on Tuesday. Despite the 94pts gain by Nifty — I still see the price action as negative. I would like to go with a bearish stance for 26th Dec.” 4mts chart link - click here Seems like I got the bet wrong, despite weakening geopolitical events - Nifty traded in the positive territory today. Only in the opening 15mts or so we saw a slight tendency to go below water but it was quickly bought into. Nifty rallied 146pts ~ 0.69pts from the LOD to HOD by 12.23. NiftyIT 4mts charts - click here Once it hit the intraday high, the steam eased off and then we started going sideways. NiftyIT has been such a decisive factor for Nifty50 these days. It lost almost 382pts ~ 1.07% and then recovered 492pts ~ 1.4% all in the opening 90mts. The final close was in the RED though (-0.41%). 63mts chart link - click here I am forced to change my stance from bearish to neutral as the price action now shows a higher tendency to go up rather than down. Those strong RED candles of 20th Dec still haunt me - but it has failed to gather the momentum of the other bears. Since it's a holiday week - the FII action may be at a reduced space. Lower liquidity could bring in unusual price spikes - it is best suggested to take your trades with caution.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
22nd Dec ’23 - BankNifty's trades today were logical & realisticBankNifty Analysis The trades on BankNifty were more practical and appropriate to the situation we have at hand. 4mts chart link - click here We opened in line and then tested the top of the ascending channel from 10.03 to 12.03. There was rejection at those levels which took BN quickly to the bottom of the channel. We spent 13.43 to 15.11 at the lower end before breaking down. Even though the closing was below the channel, we ran out of time for conclusive evidence. Yesterday we went with a neutral stance believing BankNifty will be able to lead the fight for Nifty50 today. What really happened today was NiftyIT taking the pole position and BankNifty breaking down. 63mts chart link - click here The last 4 candles of today were in RED and we ended just below the channel. For Tuesday, I wish to go with a bearish stance. So at present, my directional view for both Nifty and BankNifty is bearish. Since we have a long weekend - anything could happen when we reopen on Tuesday. I have not taken any positions overnight and decided to play as per the situation after reopening.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
22nd Dec ’23 - Nifty’s levels today are skewed by NiftyIT 🚀🚀🚀Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I am inclined to change my stance to neutral with the developments of today. Giving the bears one more opportunity to prove their mettle, hence going with the bearish stance for tomorrow as well. All they have to do is keep Nifty50 below 21200 in the opening 2hrs for the momentum to kick in” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty’s price action was deceptive today, mainly because of the outperformance by NiftyIT(+2.27%). The real action today happened in BankNifty (-0.73%). Let me try to elaborate. Between 13.59 and 15.03 NiftyIT rallied 799pts ~ 2.29% in a surprising move. This skewed the Nifty50 numbers too. INFY, Wipro, HCL, TCS, and LTIM contributed 44pts out of 94 today. NiftyIT 4mts chart link - click here NiftyIT even though it started negative had a total swing range of 1029pts today. I guess NSE has to consider opening up FnO on NiftyIT seriously and set the expiries on Mondays. After all, we have 6 stocks of Nifty50 in BankNifty. Similarly, we have 6 stocks of Nifty50 in NiftyIT. 63mts chart link - click here. Since Monday is a holiday, it gives us added uncertainty on what to expect on Tuesday. Despite the 94pts gain by Nifty - I still see the price action as negative. I would like to go with a bearish stance for 26th Dec. A gap-up or gap-down possibility cannot be ruled out as we are going for the extended weekend with bad geo-political macros.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
21st Dec ’23 - BankNifty leads from the front, stance is NEUTRALBankNifty Analysis I initially thought the wolf in the sheep’s costume was NiftyIT today spoiling the fun of the Bears. The real culprit was BankNifty - the way it defended its turf today was more than amazing. Even though we had a lower opening, HDFCBANK was staying strong at one end. You know pretty well that HDFCBK alone can drive up/down the index as its weight on the index is manipulatively sizeable. 4mts chart link - click here Just like a Tug-of-War, HDFCBK was at the rear end acting as the anchor. It bolted itself to the ground and ensured BN was not slipping. Somehow it worked. The first thing BN did was to retest the lower end of the ascending channel i.e. between 10.07 to 10.55. Once it broke out - it retested the same line from a support perspective i.e. b/w 13.55 to 14.11. The 2nd test was rejected which gave it massive momentum to break free (upside). The next stop was right at the top end of the channel i.e. b/w 14.47 to 15.19. You might have to see the encircled portion in the chart to know what I am referring to. 63mts chart link - click here Can you believe - All the candles today were GREEN. We started at the lower end of the channel and ended at the top boundary stopped only by the bell. Today’s price action almost nullified yesterday’s move and seeing the way BN fought back, I wish to change my stance to neutral for tomorrow. Will go bearish once 47400 gives away and will go bullish if the ATM is taken out. The options premium did not have any excesses today indicating that a big move may not be expected - will update you via TV minds if I see something interesting tomorrow.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
21st Dec ’23 - Nifty50 Retraces 50% of Yesterday’s FallNifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The price action on the 63mts TF does not look bearish per se. But notice the weight of the RED candles — we retraced right up to the ascending channel top envelope.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty started the day on a negative note fell to 20976 and then started recovering. The recovery was so strong and convincing that there was no level of hesitation or indecision in between. When the day ended and the price actions were recorded on the chat - it seemed like the domestic institutions came ready with their chest to pump in new buy orders. From a technical analysis perspective, we cannot hope that dip buyers will step in and do the needful. The best I could do was to draw a Fibonacci retracement level. The final close stands at the exact 50% retracement level. The right setting for a bearish continuation should have been below 21211 ~ 38.2% retracement. The main sector that spoiled the bear’s party today was BankNifty. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty50 takes support right at the ascending channel showing the inability of bears to overpower the bulls. I am inclined to change my stance to neutral with the developments of today. Giving the bears one more opportunity to prove their mettle, hence going with the bearish stance for tomorrow as well. All they have to do is keep Nifty50 below 21200 in the opening 2hrs for the momentum to kick in - that may require a gap down of 50+ points. Seeing how the US markets have reacted to their GDP report (strong green) - the only thing that could put them in RED would be some pointers by FED saying “...no rate cuts in 2024”
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram