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Postmortem

20th Dec ’23 - 500pts Nifty Reversal Day - Stance is Bearish NowNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “After surging past the 20875 levels — N50 is not willing to take the rest. We broke out from the ascending channel, now it has formed a trend line well above that — how do I explain this craziness to someone? For tomorrow the bullish stance continues and the first support level will be 21407.” 4mts chart link - click here The craziness needed no explanation as the excess got shaved off today. Nifty hit a new ATH @ 21593 and then fell a whopping 506pts ~ 2.34% to close at 21101.5. TradingView minds section was not functioning today, and I felt really helpless to inform you when we reversed the stance. Nifty took out the 21407 only by afternoon, but instead of going neutral - I went bearish directly. The reason was - Nifty made a climb of 146 points first and when it fell to 21400 - the fall ended up approx 193pts ~ 0.9%. That did not look like a neutral price action to me and thankfully Nifty fell another 300pts to cement that idea. 63mts chart link - click here The price action on the 63mts TF does not look bearish per se. But notice the weight of the RED candles - we retraced right up to the ascending channel top envelope. The reason for a change in stance to bearish is just because of momentum. I will explain a bit more in the BankNifty Postmortem below.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
19th Dec ’23 - BankNifty and NiftyIT collusion to get N50 to ATHBankNifty Analysis Going neutral on BankNifty worked out pretty well today. But things were not looking in favor till we got the reversal at 10.03. Till then BN was following the falling price action from yesterday. I was kind of worried that we may even re-renter the ascending channel today. 4mts chart link - click here How and why we got the reversal - No clue. But BN climbed an impressive 369pts ~ 0.78pts to 48010 levels before giving up gains to close flat. The final close is 0.01% - how much more neutral can we be?? 4mts chart link - click here The ATH on Nifty50 looks like was planted. NiftyIT was falling pretty strongly and it was looking like a one-way trip down. NiftyIT recovered an impressive 423pts ~ 1.21% to help N50 take out the ATHs. So the Sync between NiftyIT, Reliance, and BankNifty was perfectly aligned to get the job done. And after that - things went back to normal. NiftyIt gave up 239pts and BN also dropped 227pts. 63mts chart link - click here The neutral zone is highlighted by 2 horizontal blue lines. Since tomorrow is BankNifty expiry - I am really looking forward to seeing a directional attempt. I wish to stay neutral till then. BankNifty options premiums were looking pretty good today and were unlike the usual Tuesdays we see. VIX near the 14 range is really helping the option sellers.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
1
19th Dec ’23 - Nifty50 adds a NEW ATH to its kitty - 21505Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I do not wish to change Nifty’s stance — I still prefer to look for long-only trades. However, 21341 would be the laxman rekha for me tomorrow also.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty does another gap-up today which is sold into falls over 142pts ~ 0.66% to hit an intraday low of 21337 before reversing. Quite interestingly it came to my level of 21341 and I was ready to change my stance - but the reversal came quite fast. Thank God, I didnt pull the trigger. Guess what happened then - we had a healthy rising momentum and we took out the 21500 levels. The new ATH is 21505. After highs were hit - we gave way to profit booking and fell 76pts ~ 0.36% to close the day with just 34pts gains. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty has positively surprised everyone this month. After surging past the 20875 levels - N50 is not willing to take the rest. We broke out from the ascending channel, now it has formed a trend line well above that - how do I explain this craziness to someone? For tomorrow the bullish stance continues and the first support level will be 21407. Meanwhile, the Geo-political developments in the Suez Canal are looking pretty disappointing. It may take a week or two to get the real impact of it. If the ships are rerouting via South Africa - it only means higher supply-chain costs & delays. The first needle to watch maybe will be CrudeOil.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
18th Dec ’23 - BankNifty stance changed from bullish to neutral BankNifty Analysis We got some interesting moves today by BankNifty. During pre-open ICICI bank was looking very weak but other banks were looking okay. But once markets opened - BN fell to 47810 by 09.19. The 2 horizontal blue lines I have drawn are the weak support and resistance lines from the last 2 days of action. BN went above the 47873 and was trading above that for most of the time. 4mts chart link - click here We got one hit at 13.11 and the 2nd one by 14.43. After the 2nd hit, BN briefly fell below the support level and the final closing was at 47862. The LOD was broken 15.23 - so it is like we closed into weakness. The distance to my target of 47754 remained at just 52pts. And that is the main reason why I prefer to change my stance from long to neutral for tomorrow. 63 mts chart link - click here If BN builds back momentum by tomorrow afternoon (FinNifty’s expiry could help), then it has to take out the ATH - only then I would prefer to switch back to bullish mode. To go bearish, the first step BN has to do is take out the top boundary of the ascending channel pretty quickly.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
18th Dec ’23 - Our market takes a pause - Nifty50 PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “My stance continues to be bullish with the first support level revised to 21341. All we can do now is trail the stop loss and let the winners run. 4mts chart link - click here Nifty was absolutely trading in a narrow range with minor dips. More action was visible on BankNifty today which nudged me to go for a status change (will discuss this shortly). Nifty opened gap-down - the excess euphoria of Friday got shaved off and then it recovered from the LOD. Interestingly the low of the day was in the opening minutes and we never tested it. Technically 21341 was not tested and no status change is warranted. 63mts chart link - click here There was nothing special in today’s action. Nifty defended its lower side quite neatly. NiftyIT was toggling between red and green. BankNifty was in RED. Nifty Pharma was quite energetic today, but the major point gainers for Nifty were RELIANCE and Bajaj Finance. I do not wish to change Nifty’s stance - I still prefer to look for long-only trades. However, 21341 would be the laxman rekha for me tomorrow also. If we get a closing below that - I would love to go neutral. To go bearish - we need to break below the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
15th Dec ’23 - 0.5% variance b/w BankNifty & FinNifty - a first?BankNifty Analysis The patterns and price action on BankNifty were interesting today. For the first time, I noticed a dichotomy with Finnifty’s points. BankNifty and FinNifty had a variance of 0.5% index-to-index basis. This gap remained as such for the entire day. I do not remember the last time they had a sizeable gap. 81.57% weighted stocks in Banknifty have a combined weight of 77.09% in Finnifty - still, we got a variance. 4mts chart link - click here Today’s gap up was actually in the range set from yesterday. We did not break out until 14.27. So if we do not combine yesterday’s price action with today’s - the final painted picture will be different. The real deal today was NiftyIT which went up 4.56% and Reliance + Adani. SBI also played a part but BankNifty as a whole was not that crazy as Nifty. We finally ended the day with a gain of 0.86%. FinNifty ended with 0.32% gains. 63mts chart link - click here BN has also made an island formation because of the gap-up yesterday. The stance remains unchanged at bullish. The first support level will be 47754. Meanwhile would like to find out why NiftyIT surged so much, definitely it has to do with some news or insider information.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
15th Dec ’23 - 273pts massive upmove, Nifty50 hits new ATH 21492Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Nifty has shown it is stronger than thought by bouncing off the channel’s upper boundary. For tomorrow, my stance is revised to bullish. Since we are at ATH, I do not have an upper target, but my support level will be 21037.” 4mts chart link - click here Results continue to amaze and amuse me. Never have I been rewarded so beautifully for the technical analysis. I strongly do not think it's because my analysis is getting better, but Nifty50 is becoming more predictable. Even if you bought this morning right at the gap up of 21298, you would have made another 158-point gain. Nifty’s new ATH is 21492.3. Normally Gap-ups are either held or sold into, and when it rallies after the gap - it shows a fundamental shift in sentiment. Frankly, I am curious to know - who is buying at these levels, or is it just FOMO? I played the Sensex expiry trades today, the PUT option I sold went up another 84% despite the strike moving up. Usually Puts appreciate when the market falls, but in my case, the spike came when the market was surging. I guess it had to do with the liquidity & new credit spreads getting written. Anyway, it was a treat to watch. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty has formed a new island at a gap-up showing breakout momentum. My stance continues to be bullish with the first support level revised to 21341. All we can do now is trail the stop loss and let the winners run. I stopped trading today at 15.00 when Nifty crossed 20400, would you believe we even went up another 92pts before settling at 21456. The reason I pulled out early was because of the unreal speculation & euphoria. The PUT options were looking pretty seducing to short, but I decided to pass. Good to go into a 2 day holiday due to the weekend and reclaim some sanity. Talk to you guys on Monday.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
14th Dec ’23 - BankNifty breaksout again and hits ATH Bull-RUNBankNifty Analysis If you read the postmortem report yesterday, you might have seen how the W pattern formed yesterday and BankNifty respecting the ascending trend line turned out. BankNifty had a different start today vs Nifty because we opened 0.95% gap-up and then rallied another 0.8% to hit the all time highs. 4mts chart - click here The 2nd rally was equally intense as the first. And once we hit the ATH - BN turned flat and had a sideways trend till close. Remember we discussed how gap-up and gap-downs are the major weapon used by the big-boys to scare the s**t out of the option sellers? US markets rarely does the gap-ups or gap-downs, I mean the index. Whereas the majority of the gains/loss in our markets are done via gaps. FED’s rate cuts promise in 2024 looks like more of a political play than an economic one. A rallying market and portfolios in green sounds pretty good for the incumbent leaders. Imagine trying to get re-elected when there is economic depression/recession? 63mts chart link - click here The stance on BankNifty has been revised to bullish. I have no targets in mind as we are at the ATH. The first support to look at will be 47588. Meanwhile, the charts look perfectly like in the textbook.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
14th Dec ’23 - Markets break out yet again! Nifty50 ATH 🐂🐂🐂Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “We have the Nifty expiry tomorrow and as it stands the OTM premiums are pretty low indicating the option sellers are not expecting a big more tomorrow. In case we pick a direction tomorrow, the short sellers (PE or CE) will have to run for cover and that could spike the option premiums. I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow also and wish to go bullish above 21037 and bearish below 20702.” 4mts chart link - click here. Guess what happened today? The CE short-sellers ran for cover as the pre-open indicated a mega gap up. Rightly so, we opened 182pts higher after FED announced plans to cut rates thrice in 2024. US markets were overjoyed and its spillover effects fell on Indian markets as well. Since the opening was above my target of 21037, I had to choose the bullish direction. You wont believe how hard NiftyIT rallied today, +3.5%. The main reason we had a retracement over the last 2 to 3 sessions was NiftyIT. And its reversal helped Nifty50 hit a new ATH of 21210.9 today. 63mts chart of NiftyIT - click here See the chart of NiftyIT. Between 12th and 13th December we fell 3.25% ~ 1098pts. And from those lows, it rallied 4.89% ~ 1599pts including today’s gains of 1156pts. Not just IT, almost all the sectors were in green today except for maybe NiftyMedia. 63mts chart - click here Nifty has shown it is stronger than thought by bouncing off the channel's upper boundary. For tomorrow, my stance is revised to bullish. Since we are at ATH, I do not have an upper target, but my support level will be 21037.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
13th Dec ’23 - BankNifty does a W pattern on the ascending trendBankNifty Today’s Analysis The opening candle in Banknifty had a swing range of 189pts ~ 0.4%. That candle looked dangerous and I really thought we would have a deep RED day today. Quite interestingly, BN made a W pattern right at the top band of the ascending channel (see the 63mts chart link also). 4mts chart link - click here Once BN got caught in that channel envelope, it was blindly following that path. The final close is at -0.01% - it cannot get more flat than this. The W pattern may change the dynamics for tomorrow - usually, it favors the bulls. So we need to wait and watch for the first hour or so tomorrow and then decide. From an expiry trading perspective, the OTM options really did not have any premium to start with. The opening moves gave some rush and then the reversal by 12.31 also gave some boost to the strikes. 63mts chart link - click here BankNifty has entered the ascending channel and from a medium-term perspective, it all looks bullish to me. For tomorrow, I wish to start with the neutral stance and then change course as the price action develops. Falling below 46565 is bearish to me.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
13th Dec ’23 - Nifty Stance change to neutral worked perfectlyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “But from a real price action perspective, I have changed my ultra short-term stance to neutral now. To gain back the bullish momentum, Nifty has to close above 21037. To go bearish, Nifty has to fall below 20691.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty does a classic U-turn today, around the 20770 levels. For a moment I thought the neutral stance was not working and we would have to go into bearish mode. A small pullback was expected, but a 180pts mammoth reversal was not there in my mind. From a headline perspective, we closed flat today, which means neutral stance continues for tomorrow. 4mts chart link - click here Both BankNifty and NiftyIT orchestrated the U-turn. NiftyIT fell 781pts ~ 2.33% intraday to a session low of 32715 and then recovered 390pts ~ 1.19%. What this recovery did to Nifty was to shoot the bearish hopes in the leg. No matter what happens, the bulls are not giving room for the bears to breathe. The dip buying is so intense that I kind of feel its frothy. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty is still above the ascending channel, the bulls are still in control. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting by FED. Any hints of not cutting the interest rates in 2024 may spook the US markets. We have the Nifty expiry tomorrow and as it stands the OTM premiums are pretty low indicating the option sellers are not expecting a big more tomorrow. In case we pick a direction tomorrow, the short sellers (PE or CE) will have to run for cover and that could spike the option premiums. I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow also and wish to go bullish above 21037 and bearish below 20702.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12th Dec ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - India's inflation at 5.5%BankNifty Analysis BankNifty had a better price action today than Nifty. In the sense that the down move was more stable and compelling. Since yesterday we said we would love to go neutral below 47000 - we are changing the status now. 4mts chart link - click here Even though the day’s low was only 47004, I would prefer to go with the status change because of 2 reasons. FinNifty had a dichotomy with BankNifty today - this may be expiry-related. After 11.00 AM, BankNifty had no attempt to go up, it was just too tired to even try. We got the inflation data today, India’s Retail Inflation 5.55 per cent in November 2023. source PIB. Vegetables 17.7% inflation, fruits - 10.95%, cereals - 10.27%, pulses - 20.23%. Quite surprised to see fuel and light deflated to -0.77% even without a fuel price drop. Crude oil has fallen 40% and yet we do not have a cut in petrol or diesel prices. Inflation hits the most for the poorest segment of the population where the marginal propensity to consume is higher. 63mts chart link - click here BankNifty is also above the ascending channel, only if it drops below the lower limit we can really get into a bearish zone. But looking at the price action today, I would like to play tomorrow’s expiry on a neutral tone.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
12th Dec ’23 We have a change in stance today! Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow also I prefer to maintain the bullish stance. If we are unable to build momentum and Nifty is falling to the 20900 levels then I may have to change the stance to neutral by the end of the day.” 4mts chart link - click here Even though we had a gap up opening, the same did not sustain and the round of selling started by 10.07. The selling momentum did not pick up until 12.19 post which we fell almost 150pts. Although the final closing was at 20906, it ticked my checklist for the stance change. My view for tomorrow is neutral. Even BankNifty has a stance change today (will discuss that shortly). A wolf dressed as sheep today was NiftyIT. INFY had a negative start as its ADR was down 3% after the news of CFO leaving. To compensate for that TCS was trading with super gains. This kept the NiftyIT index above water till 14.31. Nifty IT 4mts chart link - click here Then at 14.35 we had a good red candle that tipped the scale and guided Nifty50 to accelerate the fall. Why I said the wolf among the sheep is because NiftyIT retraced those points and ended the day flat. There was a 167pts ~ 0.5% recovery between 14.51 to 15.07. All eyes are on tomorrow if NiftyIT will go green or not. NiftyIT has played a good role in the recent rally of Nifty50. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty can fall a lot more and still be in the uptrend. That is because we are well above the ascending channel. But from a real price action perspective, I have changed my ultra short-term stance to neutral now. To gain back the bullish momentum, Nifty has to close above 21037. To go bearish, Nifty has to fall below 20691.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
11th Dec ’23 - BankNifty stalled today after hitting new ATHBankNifty Analysis Banknifty disappointed a bit today. After a shaky start just like Nifty, we hit a new ATH by 10.23 - 47588. From there we cooled off a little bit and then closed flat. From the last post-mortem we hoped that it would be a day of out performance today and sadly the price action today did not live up to that expectation. 4mts chart link - click here BankNifty was staying positive most of the day, but FinNifty was dipping below water intermittently. Was it because the banks wanted some rest today after the chilling performance on Friday? I thought they got the weekend for ample rest. 63mts chart link - click here Conditions are still looking favorable for BankNifty’s breakout-dance. Maybe it could take a day or two to get some breath. Since we have FinNifty expiry tomorrow, the price action may not be purely natural. FinNifty option sellers would prefer to keep it range-bound. I wish to maintain the bullish stance on BankNifty tomorrow also and if we fall or close below 47000 level, I may have to take a pause and change stance to neutral.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
8th Dec ’23 - RBI’s meet clears the air for banknifty & finniftyBankNifty Analysis Banks had a totally different chart pattern than Nifty50 today. I would say the pattern by BankNifty was more mature and stable compared with Nifty. At no point in time, a breakdown was visible in BN today - yes, we dropped 0.67% ~ 316pts in between, but it was not as scary as N50. 4mts chart link - click here RBI Governor maintained status-quo today, A few of the important points from his meeting today - Repo rate at 6.5% - unchanged Withdrawal of accommodation stance - unchanged CPI inflation fell by 2% after the last MPC meet Real GDP for 2023-24 projected at 7% Connected lending framework - work in progress UPI limit enhanced Set up a Fintech Repository Remember how the banks were shy on 6th and 7th of December? The air is now clear for them - there are no hidden surprises from RBI this time. This could be one of the reasons we had an intraday bounce of 449pts ~ 0.96% after 1pm today. 63mts chart link - click here For the last 2 days, I was neutral on Banknifty - after the clarity shown today, I wish to change my stance back to bullish. The new ATH is now 47303.65. Would like to see some action by banks in the next week.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
8th Dec ’23 - Nifty is still long, Banks will lend momentum tooNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Tomorrow’s RBI’s meeting @ 10.00 AM is going to be a decider — no level of technical analysis can predict when there is a news flow expected. I wish to maintain my long stance as of now although it’s itching to go neutral.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty had a gap-up opening and because of that, it defended the ground. There were 2 instances of a possible breakdown appearing. See the chart, almost a M-like pattern and we hit the intraday low by 13.47. From there we reversed pretty quickly to end the day with net gains of 0.33%. Firstly, we hit the 21000 milestone, the new ATH being 21006. We hit it twice at 09.59 and 10.31 - what a week it has been. RBI’s meeting today turned out to be business as expected (we will discuss this in detail in BankNifty’s postmortem). But the 142pts ~ 0.68% intraday fall was not attributed to the RBI’s decision or comments. But one thing is sure, the recovery from 13.51 was mainly by the Financial services & bank index. 63mts chart link - click here On the 63mts TF, The uptrend stays intact. BankNifty has resolved the directional doubt on the upside which may impart more strength to Nifty next week. How high can we go - I am not sure. I wish to continue with my bullish stance till proven wrong.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
7th Dec ’23 - tomorrow's RBI meet- more liquidity drain ???BankNifty Analysis The opening candle was very similar to the Nifty’s. The low set in the opening minutes ended up as the low of the day. In a way, it shows the bulls are still in control. The pattern was quite similar to yesterday. Weak open and then range-bound trade. 4mts chart link - click here Banks will be on their toes tomorrow huffing and puffing to the RBI Governor’s announcement. I feel he will bring in some measures to cut down the liquidity. The 2 last attempts by varying the iCRR and CAR did not go that well. Bank stocks reacted pretty badly but recovered and hit new highs. Paytm fell 20% today when it said it might cut back on small value loans ~ Rs50000. I guess this impact came from the hike in CAR weightage from the last meeting. 63mts chart link - click here I guess there is no clue from the chart here, will have to spend the time in front of the TV tomorrow to hear from the RBI governor directly. Since I am already neutral on BankNifty, my level to go short for tomorrow will be 46341.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
7th Dec ’23 - Should I change my Nifty stance to neutral?Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “As an analyst, it is very difficult to predict when the trend will end, but we need to keep looking. For tomorrow, I prefer to continue with the long bias unless we give up the 20853 in the morning session.” 4mts chart link - click here The opening candle was explosive, in line opening with a strong fall. See the depth in RED - you will understand from the chart. I was eagerly waiting for it to cross that 20850 level today but that did not happen. Let us try to analyze why we had such a bold opening candle move. Both BankNifty and NiftyIT had a similar opening, so it was not an isolated issue. Some players might have sold off their winners to go light into tomorrow’s RBI meet or it could be a long unwinding out of fear that the markets will fall today due to the US market handout. From there Nifty climbed back to the 20920 level by 11.03 and then the trade was in a small range till the close. From 14.31 to 14.59. At 13.19, 20850 PE was trading at Rs1.95 when the spot was at 20911 - for me, it appeared damn cheap. Nifty made one more attempt - but it went nowhere. 63mts chart link - click here The last 4 candles of today had perfect “open = close” values. 3 of them were perfect Dojis - look up the textbook for Doji candles, maybe the example quoted there won't match with the real ones of today. Tomorrow’s RBI’s meet @ 10.00 AM is going to be a decider - no level of technical analysis can predict when there is a news flow expected. I wish to maintain my long stance as of now although it's itching to go neutral.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
6th Dec ’23 - stance changed to neutral, RBI policy on Friday ?BankNifty Today Analysis BankNifty also had a gap up open, but the first-hour price action did not seem normal. Not just because we went underwater and traded negative for the rest of the day, but the lack of will by the banks to move up. We all know the RBI MPC started the meeting today and we will have the summary on Friday @ 10.00 AM. 5mts chart link - click here Seems like the market is expecting something from the RBI Governor this time. The last time he came up with a CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) weight increment - the markets fell. Prior to that, we had the I-CRR incremental cash reserve ratio of 10%. I guess he is doing everything to control the liquidity without raising the repo rates. What will he do this time - increase the weight on SLR (statutory liquidity ratio), ask banks to keep more collateral with RBI ? The next move by Banks will make or break Nifty, that is because to continue the breakout strategy we need strong momentum. We cannot have a situation where Nifty rockets with the BankNifty stalling. 63mts chart link - click here The first 63mts candle of today is encircled, see the weight its body carries. There was a drop of 482pts ~ 1.02%. So even though we hit a new ATH today, this candle looks worrisome. I wish to change my stance to neutral from bullish for tomorrow. We will get 100% clarity only by Friday on what RBI Governor has in mind, till then it is better to take only high-conviction trades.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
6th Dec ’23 - Another Gap-up Opening - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I prefer to hold on to my long stance with 20690 as a reversal level. If the uptrend is intact — we hope to see the laggards also catch up with the winners shortly.” 5mts chart link - click here. It might look like we had a lot of action today seeing the final gains at 82pts ~ 0.4%. The truth is - these gains came in the gap-up open itself. And from there, we haven't moved an inch. The reason I drew a rectangle is to show you how range-bound today’s trade was, something that we usually see in choppy markets and not in trending markets. There is nothing extraordinary to discuss on Nifty today, but we might have something to talk about on BankNifty and how it could influence the trend. Keep reading. 63mts chart link - click here Notice how we went from sideways to vertical real quick? The surge of 1185pts came in just 6 to 7 days showing how relevant break-out trading is. As an analyst, it is very difficult to predict when the trend will end, but we need to keep looking. For tomorrow, I prefer to continue with the long bias unless we give up the 20853 in the morning session.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
5th Dec ’23 - New all time high for BankNifty - 47230.55BankNifty Analysis Just like we discussed yesterday, BankNifty outshined Nifty today. But surprisingly FinNifty did not correlate with Banknifty. That is unusual as the major components are the same. A detailed look into these stocks BAJFINANCE, BAJAJFINSV will give you the reason. 5mts chart link - click here HDFCBANK had a higher pre-open indicative price, the initial gap-up followed by cooling off was attributed to this. ICICIBANK hit a new ATH today. Most of the other bank stocks are hovering around those levels except HDFCBK and KOTAKBK. Even after a minor cool-off between 11.00 to 11.40 - we managed to close today with impressive gains of 580pts ~ 1.25%. The new ATH is 47230.55 63 mts chart link - click here On the 63mts TF, the island formation is clearly visible today. Yesterday’s strong green candles definitely give BN a psychological advantage to go long. I prefer to stay long with the first level to fall back at 46189.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
5th Dec ’23 - Switching to 63mts time frame Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Nifty has made an island today and is in uncharted territory. If the momentum persists, we can see unusual outperformances. If there is negative news or weakening global macros — we can see a fall too. Since we have broken out from an ATH, the chances of momentum continuation are higher. I would continue to hold on to my long stance. “ 5mts chart link - click here The momentum was pretty strong today also, expectedly - BankNifty had more firepower than Nifty today even though spirited performances by ADANIENT +16.91% ADANIPORTS +15.3% contributed only 0.81% gains for Nifty. NifyIT ended up on the losing side along with the FMCG index. The Adani shareholders would be rejoicing, their patience and commitment have been rewarded with lofty gains. 63mts chart link - click here From today, I decided to replace the 60mts (1hr) chart with 63mts chart. That is because the 60mts chart gives 6 candles of 1hr and 1 candle of 15mts - so the 7th candle is of one-fourth size. Since the size is ¼ the weightage also has to be 0.25 - but from a visual perspective, we are unable to make out the real impact. The 63mts chart on the other hand gives 6 candles per day with the 6th candle having 60mts instead of 63. 375 hours of trading means. 6*60 + 1*15 for the hourly timeframe and 5*63 + 1*60 on the 63mts TF. For tomorrow, I prefer to hold on to my long stance with 20690 as a reversal level. If the uptrend is intact - hoping to see the laggards to also catch up with the winners shortly.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
4th Dec ’23 - BankNifty has more firepower than Nifty for upmoveBankNifty Analysis The real reason for the outperformance on Nifty50 = BankNifty today. In the last newsletter, we discussed how relevant BankNifty’s next move would turn out to be. Would you believe we took out the ATH today and the new value is 46484.45? 5mts chart link - click here BankNifty went on to take out the 45399 resistance in the gap-up open itself. The momentum was so strong that it was not retested at all. We went flat for a bit but started trending after 12.10. The total gains today was an astonishing 1617pts ~ 3.61%. The options premiums were going crazy today - even the OTM put options. Such was the euphoria today. NiftyIT was not participating at all in the rally today, but I am sure no one would have noticed that as it was overshadowed by BankNifty’s outperformance. 1D chart link - click here BankNifty has just managed to climb back up to the double top pattern set on 21st July & 15th Sep. Since today’s green marubozu looks pretty strong, we can safely assume we are past that threat. Momentum-wise, BN has more firepower than Nifty for the immediate short term. I prefer to stick with my long stance until 45399 support level is taken out.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram