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Postmortem

1st Dec ’23 - BankNifty's next move will help Nifty to breakoutBankNifty Analysis Nifty had the gap-up today, whereas BankNifty opened inline but just above the resistance level. 44542 quickly became support and was bid goodbye with the consecutive green candles till 09.50. After that the momentum on BankNifty stalled and we had a flat trade for the remainder of the day. 5mts chart link - click here BankNifty gained points during trading hours i.e. active trading vs Nifty’s Gap-up. This shows real courage among the BN bulls. 1D chart link - click here BankNifty has another 1555pts ~ 3.4% to reach the ATH. From the chart above - you can see we dropped 9% after hitting the double top (M pattern). Nifty’s next action is hugely dependent on BankNifty’s attempt to regain the ATH. I would still like to continue with my bullish stance until proven wrong by taking out the supports. Will trade the morning hours of Monday with a bit of caution as the election results may play spoilsport.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
1st Dec ’23 - Nifty on the cusp of Breakout? PostMortem AnalysisNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, 20015 was today’s stop and reversal level. The hourly candle seemed pretty strong, but some credibility has to be given to this new support level. I wish to continue with my bullish stance, the upper target will be the ATH and the lower target will be the new support of 20015.” 5mts chart link - click here It is official guys, we have a new all-time high - 20291.55. Things were looking long right from the gap up. The first 5mts candle continued gaining momentum despite the gap-up, usually we see some profit bookings - but today was different. Overnight exit-polls results may have enticed the markets and the gap-ups are the secret weapon Nifty uses to overpower the bears. 1hr chart link - click here. Once Nifty broke out from the 19875 levels, the long-only stance has given multifold returns. With all eyes on the Dec 03 election results, a stable political environment is the best case for the markets. A coalition or an upset is not usually good for the markets in the short-run. And I would not prefer to apply technical analysis for Monday as it will be overpowered by News flow. But I still prefer to go long. 1D chart link - click here On the daily time frame, Nifty has broken out from a previous ATH that was hit on 15th Sep. We almost went down 6.6% before reclaiming the top. I would like to see this as a breakout with a new higher high in the cards. For this to happen, BankNifty has to reclaim its ATH (will discuss shortly).
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
30th Nov ’23 - BankNifty stalled today, not sure of the reasonBankNifty Today Analysis From yesterday’s analysis, I was long into BankNifty and was quite surprised to see the breach of support level 44542 by 09.45. The candle that crossed this SR line took out 154pts, luckily no damage was done and we found a safety net at 44280 levels. 5mts chart link - click here I have not fully subscribed to the idea that the opening fall was due to the over-buying yesterday. Anyway, the bears were not able to overpower the bulls today, if so then we should have retested the 44063 levels. I do not plan to change my stance to neutral until that happens. 1hr chart link - click here The exit polls declared after hours today might show its impact in the forenoon session. I did not carry forward any position for tomorrow and decided to play as it is after the opening. If Banknifty is not able to accelerate to the next resistance of 45399, it could pose some trouble to the current trend. We all know how important the banks are for Nifty’s ATH recoup. -- BankNifty Monthly and Weekly Analysis BankNifty gained an impressive 1023pts ~ 2.36% over the last week, whereas the monthly gains of 1446pts ~ 3.36% were sub-par compared with Nifty. One of the reasons could be attributed to the news event on 17th Nov that took out some bullish momentum on banks.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
30th Nov ’23 - Good and Volatile Monthly Expiry Nifty PostMortemNifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I still continue to hold on to my long position just that I added some protection with 20000 PE buy in the last minutes of trade today. Not because I wish to change the status to neutral, but to offset the OTM PEs shorted today. Most of them were full of air today as the movement would have spiked up its implied volatility. ATH is 20222 and we are just 126 points away, there are no support/resistance zones in between too.” 5mts chart link - click here The 20000 PE which was bought as a hedge for the OTM short positions was in action today. Even though I exited it prematurely, It went from Rs11 to Rs39 today. See the encircled region in the chart - 09.40 to 10.05. The steam was let off by then and we quickly gained back ground. Nifty50 was trading below water, mainly due to the pressure from BankNifty. But by 13.40 - Nifty made its intentions clear to go green. The real push came between 14.15 and close wherein Nifty gained 101pts ~ 0.5% to end the day with credible gains of 36pts. Meanwhile do not get swayed away by the FIIs buy number today - as it may be due to the MSCI inflows on the top largecaps. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, 20015 was today’s stop and reversal level. The hourly candle seemed pretty strong, but some credibility has to be given to this new support level. I wish to continue with my bullish stance, the upper target will be the ATH and the lower target will be the new support of 20015.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
29th Nov ’23 - BankNifty Outperforms & is now bullish 🐂🐂🐂BankNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “BankNifty has picked up decent momentum from 22nd Nov when it bounced from the 43253 support level. The next level to watch is 44063 and till that is not taken out, I wish to maintain my neutral stance. Once BankNifty also goes bullish, it will be a treat to watch as Nifty is already long.” 5mts chart link - click here The gap-up was right at the SR zone of 44063 and it helped BankNifty change its sentiment. For the initial 30mts, BN was a little hesitant to make its move but as it held out the support level - it may have gained the confidence of the bulls. Hope you got my tradingview minds update as I went long today. And yes, it was definitely a treat to watch as both BankNifty and Nifty were on the long side today. Even the NiftyIT also supported today which meant there was no stopping. BankNifty went on to gain another 569pts ~ 1.29% once it defended its support. The total gains today were 685pts ~ 1.56%. Between 14.45 to 15.10, it took out another resistance level at 44542, this came as a surprise to me as I thought the resistance may hold. Since tomorrow is the expiry day for both Nifty and BankNifty we may some action in 2nd half. 1hr chart link - click here See the encircled region on the 1hr TF, 15th & 16th November when we were still in that ascending channel. The news that broke ensured BankNifty fell, but see what happened - the rebound was much more powerful. Today’s 14.15 candle alone grabbed 268pts ~ 0.61% and most importantly helped BN close above this encircled region. My stance is bullish on BN with 44763 as the first target. Keep in mind, a strong resistance is coming up at 45399.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
29th Nov ’23 - The rocket just took off - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday:”On the daily time frame you can notice how the recent run-up from 19310 has played out. The next targets on the upside are quite tricky as Nifty has not spent a decent time above these levels, 20010 and 20107 are some faint resistances” 5mts chart link - click here Nifty got the right support from BankNifty today and see how it turned out today. A breakout from 19875 yesterday, propelled Nifty to 20104 today - can you imagine the firepower bulls got today? It started with a short covering in the morning but by evening it was all PUT side short build-up - indicating further surge ahead. 206.9pts gain today, the pain the bears endured today is just unquantifiable. Luckily I was on the bullish side from yesterday. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, we made an island day today courtesy of BankNifty (which we will discuss soon). I still continue to hold on to my long position just that I added some protection with 20000 PE buy in the last minutes of trade today. Not because I wish to change the status to neutral, but to offset the OTM PEs shorted today. Most of them were full of air today as the movement would have spiked up its implied volatility. ATH is 20222 and we are just 126 points away, there are no support/resistance zones in between too.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
28th Nov ’23 - BankNifty is neutral till 44063 is taken out BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was following the last day’s price momentum, but it did not have an acceleration similar to Nifty today. Well the main reason why Nifty got that push was due to the 10% upper circuit hit on ADANIENT. Even ADANIPORTS also closed quite well today. Both of them combined added 39+ pts to Nifty’s gains today ~ 0.19%. You deduct that, you almost get the 0.26% net gains same as BankNifty today. 5mts chart link - click here That does not mean BankNifty did poorly today. We almost had a W like pattern between 13.00 and close. The next resistance of 44063 is still not taken out, which means we need to watch how it will react to the opening hours tomorrow. Also tomorrow we have no expiries as BankNifty will expire the same as Nifty & Sensex this Thursday. 1hr chart link - click here BankNifty has picked up decent momentum from 22nd Nov when it bounced from the 43253 support level. The next level to watch is 44063 and till that is not taken out, I wish to maintain my neutral stance. Once BankNifty also goes bullish, it will be a treat to watch as Nifty is already long.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
28th Nov ’23 - Finally a breakout from 19875 Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, I would still like to continue with my neutral stance. Only if 19875 gets taken out, we can hope for some followthrough on the upside.” 5mts chart link - click here So finally we had a breakthrough of the 19875 levels. Notice my stance for the last 6 sessions was neutral and I had to change to bullish today. Hope you got my tradingview minds update once I went bullish @ 15.06. Just look at the 100pts ~ 0.51% stride Nifty50 took from 14.00 to the close. That was some serious buildup to momentum. The only negative point to this story was the lack of punch from BankNifty and FinNifty today. I hope they catch up tomorrow. 1 day chart link - click here On the daily time frame you can notice how the recent run-up from 19310 has played out. The next targets on the upside are quite tricky as Nifty has not spent a decent time above these levels, 20010 and 20107 are some faint resistances I could mark for the sake of it.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
24th Nov ’23 - BankNifty has to take out a crucial resistance.BankNifty Analysis BankNifty had a positive-looking chart today, it was kind of obvious from the optimism it showed in the last 2 days. The first thing it did today morning was to take support from the 43566 area i.e. between 09.45 to 10.05 5mts chart link - click here At 10.40 it had a strong green candle and it looked like it was going for the next resistance area, but that momentum was cut short. Between 13.00 and 13.15 we started falling again and luckily we did not reach the SR area of 43566 to reverse. The recovery from 13.15 to close was decent enough and we gained 216pts ~ 0.5%. The main factor that kept Nifty neutral today was the outperformance by banks today, most of them would not have realized that NiftyIT lost almost a percent today. 1hr chart link - click here Looking at the 1hr TF, I am still inclined to go neutral unless we take out the 44063 resistance. To go bearish, 43253 has to be broken - in between we have 2 more support levels.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
24th Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem Another Flat Day!Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “If you have read my previous post-mortem reports, I have been staying neutral since the 17th and it looks like that is going to change tomorrow. As soon as 19875 is broken on the 1hr TF, I would prefer to go bullish. I will update you guys via the tradingview minds section if that happens tomorrow.” 5mts chart link - click here The much-awaited 19875 breakout did not come today, looks like we need to wait till Tuesday to find out as Monday is a holiday. Due to the additional holiday in between combined with the lack of directional intent today, the options premiums were already dead. BSE:BANK and MidCPSelect also had expiry today along with BSE:SENSEX - this again would have diverted the focus & volume from mainline Nifty and BankNifty. The only good thing that happened today was Nifty’s show of strength at the 19776 support level. Between 13.05 to 13.40 Nifty spent its time around this SR area but thankfully did not break down. 5mts chart link - click here The main reason for this was NiftyIT, it gave up 678pts ~ 2.08% in the last 2 days. But it does not really mean bad news for Nifty50, as long as BankNifty can cover up for the lost ground - the hope can still be kept alive. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, I would still like to continue with my neutral stance. Only if 19875 gets taken out, we can hope for some followthrough on the upside.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
23rd Nov ’23 - BankNifty takes out a resistance today 🐂 soonBankNifty Analysis BankNifty made some interesting strides today. After opening inline, it went to the resistance level of 43566 really quickly. By 10.00 we had a close above this level on the 5mts TF. I did update on the trading view minds that, I changed my stance from bearish to neutral because of this. 5mts chart link - click here Even though we did not go much higher, BankNifty was able to retain the lead and hold the ground. The Final close was also above this level opening up opportunities for further up moves. Fundamentally I still don't know if the banks have priced in the CAR and risk weight increment news perfectly, but from a technical chart perspective - it seems like the bearishness is almost over. 1hr chart link - click here BankNifty has a lot of ground to cover to get back at the bullish trend line. The first target would be to take out the 44063 resistance level and give some food for the bulls to charge. Over the last few sessions, I had a bearish view on the 17th & 20th, a neutral view on the 21st, and then a bearish view on the 22nd. Today I have changed the stance to neutral again. At present Nifty and BankNifty are in a neutral stance. Logically the directional bias has to be in sync for both Nifty and BankNifty, that's when the real magic happens. I am quite sure if BankNifty goes bullish tomorrow, Nifty will also get its stance changed.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
23rd Nov ’23 Nifty Postmortem - On the Cusp of breakout 🐂🐂🐂Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I wish to continue my neutral stance till 19875 is not broken out above which I would go bullish. For a bearish stance, Nifty will have to take out the 19562 support.” 5mts chart link - click here The opening minutes gave the impression that 19875 would be broken for good, but that firepower did not last. By 10.00 Nifty made up its mind and started trading sideways. After that initial acceleration, we had a boring price action for the rest of the day. One good thing is that we did not retest the 19776 support level - which shows some indication that we are gearing up for an up-move. 1hr chart link - click here On 16th Nov we hit the 19875 levels and broke down, today we broke through that same SR level of 19776 before retesting the 19875. Yesterday’s 14.15 strong green candle read along with the opening price action of Today shows some signs that the bulls are trying to get their mojo back. If you have read my previous post-mortem reports, I have been staying neutral since the 17th and it looks like that is going to change tomorrow. As soon as 19875 is broken on the 1hr TF, I would prefer to go bullish. I will update you guys via the tradingview minds section if that happens tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
22nd Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - stance changed to bearish 🐻BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was a total support and resistance play today. Unline Nifty, BankNifty did not retest yesterday’s swing high instead it started falling right from the open. We were at the 43566 support level till 10.20 after which it got broken. By 11.45 we broke the next support level at 43404 & that is when I changed my stance from neutral to bearish. I did update via the TradingView Minds on my stance change. TradingView minds is an excellent tool to inform everyone, if you are following me - you get an email instantly. 5mts chart link - click here The best way to go short today was to sell the calls as it was expiry day. The only way your calls retain value is if BankNifty moved up. After BankNifty broke the 43404 support it went to the next support of 43253 and was rejected. The rejection took BN back above the 43404 level. Reiterating that there is no way Nifty can go up with BankNifty looking bearish. 1hr chart link - click here BN is right at the 50% retracement from the recent run-up from 42105 to 44400. The 38.2% retracement level is at 43566 🙂, 61.8% retracement is at 43012. It is not quite usual that I get my support and resistance levels exactly in line with the Fibonacci retracement lines. My stance is currently bearish with the first target of 43012 and then 42576. In case we reverse course and go up, it has to take out 44063 before any bullish activity has to resume.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
22nd Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem - An Intraday W Pattern 📈Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “One thing is for sure, we would need BankNifty to fire up and reverse course for any further bullish stunts by Nifty. There is no way Nifty can do it without the support from the Banks. I would prefer to maintain my neutral strategy till we take out the 19875 levels. On the downside, I would prefer to go short if 19562 is taken out.” 5mts chart link - click here My concept of having a neutral stance meant a day without volatility, not like a day today wherein we had sharp price movements with a flat closing. Nifty opened inline today, retested yesterday’s high, and then started falling. We fell approx 121pts ~ 0.61%. Once it broke the 19776 support line, the length of the red candles kept on increasing showing visible evidence of breakdown. At 12.25 we hit the low for the day and then started reversing. Quite surprisingly the stop & reverse formed a W (double bottom-like pattern) on the 5mts TF and we took out the 19776 resistance with good-length green candles. Nifty retraced the entire fall and ended the day with a gain of 0.14% despite BankNifty staying down. 1hr chart link - click here The 14.15 green candle is standing out today showing some evidence that Nifty has respected the 19776 support. No matter how hard Nifty50 tries, it cannot go up beyond a limit till BankNifty joins the rally. I wish to continue my neutral stance till 19875 is not broken out above which I would go bullish. For a bearish stance, Nifty will have to take out the 19562 support.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
21st Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - Stance changed to Neutral !BankNifty Analysis BankNifty was perfectly neutral in trade today. I had a bearish call from yesterday but seeing the moves today it makes sense to switch back to the neutral mode. One reason why its not picking up direction would be attributed to the unavailability of information on the recent announcement by RBI. When the risk weights of consumer loans and credit cards were increased by 25% - maybe the market is still gauging the impact of this news. 5mts chart link - click here Few major banks had reported the decision would be similar to a 55bps to 60bps rate in interest. Note, the interest rates are not getting raised, the sucking of liquidity will give such a perception. According to me, a 55bps rate hike kind of feeling is not something that should be taken lightly. Meanwhile as a trader, I would prefer to wait for the markets to decide on where it goes next. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, BankNifty has fallen from the recent swing high of 44420, it had amassed gains of 2321pts ~ 5.51% between 26th Oct to 16th Nov (A short span), so it looks like the bulls have not given up yet, and the bears are still not able to make inroads. The support of 43566 has proven quite strong in the last 3 sessions and the next resistance of 44063 is quite far away. Since we are in an indecision zone, I would like to revise my stance from bearish to neutral and go short only if the 43404 support is also getting knocked out.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
21st Nov ’23 - Nifty PostMortem 19776 is a strong SR zone 👈Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “So I would like to continue with my neutral stance till then. For bullish momentum to resume, Nifty will have to take out 19776 and 19875 in one go, but for a bearish signal a single support break would suffice.” 5mts chart link - click here The open was right at the resistance level of 19776 and interestingly the day’s low was set in the opening 5mts itself. We kind of broke out from this support/resistance zone by 12.10 and hit an intraday day of 19829 by 12.25. Unfortunately, these extra gains did not get defended because Nifty50 closed right back at the SR level @ 19780. One thing is sure, Nifty was not at all looking weak today - it defended its ground pretty well. As we discussed yesterday, we cannot go bullish until 19875 is taken out in a single attempt, today that did not happen hence it is better to look for non-directional theta decay strategies till we get a strong clue. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, we made an island formation today, the gap-up created that illusion. The orange support/resistance line is proving so vital now. One thing is for sure, we would need BankNifty to fire up and reverse course for any further bullish stunts by Nifty. There is no way Nifty can do it without the support from the Banks. I would prefer to maintain my neutral strategy till we take out the 19875 levels. On the downside, I would prefer to go short if 19562 is taken out.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
20th Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - Selling hasnt started yet 🐻BankNifty Analysis BankNifty started the day on a flat note and was not falling, which came as a surprise because towards the end of Friday’s session the short build-up was pretty intense. The low of the day was hit in the opening 5mts only and did not even go to the support level of 43404. We even had a recovery of 278pts ~ 0.64% by 10.30. 5mts chart link - click here During this recovery, the options premium on the CE side fell which gave a clue that we may not be having further strong selling today. However, towards the end of the day, we had a similar build-up of short positions as of Friday. This option flow is still suggesting me to go bearish on BankNifty. 1hr chart link - click here On the 1hr TF, BankNifty showed no interest in getting back into the ascending channel. I suppose that channel can be removed as it will not make any sense going forward. Seems like its just a support and resistance game for some time now. My first support comes at 43566 and 2nd one at 43404 (unchanged as we did not break any SR today). The main resistance is still at 44063 which looks quite far away. I wish to maintain my bearish stance till 44063 resistance is not taken out.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
20th Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem - A gradual slipping marketNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”At present, I wish to change my stance to neutral and wait for further clues. If we start dropping on Monday, I would prefer to go bearish with the first target of 19562 and then 19446.” 5mts chart link - click here Nifty did not have that much of a flavor today. We opened inline and then started drifting downwards. Although we had one attempt to go up i.e. between 10.05 to 10.30 - it was not sufficient to retest the 19776 resistance level. Notice the descending channel drawn, the slope is not high either, but if we connect the dots - it seems like we were following the previous day’s price action. 1hr chart link - click here Even though we fell 37pts today, the chart is not bearish yet. Not until the support of 19562 breaks. So I would like to continue with my neutral stance till then. For bullish momentum to resume, Nifty will have to take out 19776 and 19875 in one go, but for a bearish signal a single support break would suffice.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
17th Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem - Buying groceries on CC EMI🚩BankNifty Analysis We will discuss the Capital Adequacy Ratio news in detail today as I was unable to find time yesterday due to an unscheduled hospital emergency. In yesterday’s postmortem, I mentioned that I would be changing the stance to bearish if the support of 44063 does not hold. Hope you would have got my tradingview minds update. 5mts TF chart link - click here We opened gap down at 43694 well below the support level of 44063. In the opening candle itself, we tested the next support level of 43566. Unlike Nifty, there was no recovery in sight for BankNifty. By 10.15 we retested the 43566 support again. The price action was not at all aggressive, we were only falling gradually. Its just that the opening candle had a swing of 565pts and I guess that was the maximum target the big-boys had in mind today. Towards close we broke the 43566 support and closed lower, which means we knocked out 2 support levels today. What is the news from RBI that has spooked the financial sector? RBI's tighter regulatory risk weight to hit banks' capital adequacy by 60 bps: S&P Axis Bank shares fall 2% after RBI raises risk-weight on consumer loans, imposes penalty Bajaj Finance, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank stocks tank as RBI's risk-weight move hits tier-1 capital RBI's New Guidelines To Have Capital Impact Of 55 Basis Points, Says SBI Chairperson SBI Card's Capital Adequacy To Fall 400 Basis Points After RBI Raises Credit Risk Weights If time permits, request you to go through these news snippets to get a fair idea of what transpired. When RBI decided to up the risk weight for personal loans and credit-card loans by 25%, it means the lender has to maintain adequate capital to cover those risks. CAR is basically for the health of the lender. From a macro perspective when Inflation goes up uncontrolled, people resort to personal loans and credit card EMIs to fund consumption. This is especially true for those segments of the population that did not have a proportionate rise in income. Think like this, if people start buying groceries using a credit card loan - it shows their inability to afford. It definitely is a red flag as the interest on these loans will catch up soon and the end-user could default if his income is staying as it is. 1hr TF chart link: click here Most importantly we broke out from the ascending channel pattern and created an island day today. If you read that price action along with 2 supports getting clean-bowled, it may be true that the bears are making a comeback. For Monday, I wish to maintain my bearish stance, the next targets would be 43404, 43253 and 43012. If we reverse and go up, the first major resistance will be 44063 and if we are unable to get into the ascending channel by Monday, I will be happy to remove that.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
17tht Nov ’23 Nifty PostMortem - An interim top formation?Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, we closed slightly below 19776, the 14.15 hourly candle is well-lit like a beacon. I am still continuing my bullish stance in the hopes that 19776 will get taken out during the forenoon session tomorrow. If not, I will be changing my stance to neutral” chart link: click here Nifty opened gap down and then closed that gap in the first candle itself. It continued to go up till 10.00 wherein the resistance of 19776 was briefly crossed on the 5mts TF. Unfortunately, these gains did not last that long and we started falling in a narrow range for the rest of the day. Nifty has to be given some credit today, BankNifty was falling like a house of cards but Nifty held its ground quite well. As we discussed yesterday, I had to change my stance from bullish to neutral since the resistance of 19776 was not taken out. Chart link: click here On the 1hr TF, it kind of looks like Nifty has made an interim top at these levels. Primarily because this leg of the run was due to NiftyIT and not BankNifty. And now BankNifty is battling the news about Capital Adequacy Ratio and there could be some more selling due to that. At present, I wish to change my stance to neutral and wait for further clues. If we start dropping on Monday, I would prefer to go bearish with the first target of 19562 and then 19446.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
16th Nov ’23 BankNifty Postmortem RBI's news about CAR triggersBankNifty Analysis Banknifty did not have the fuel to rally today, unlike Nifty50. The major reason was because NiftyIT was doing all the powerlifting today (closed 2.69% higher). Between 11.00 to 11.15, I almost thought BankNifty may participate in the rally and take out the swing high of yesterday. We had the first cooling off between 11.15 to 12.30 - something that said BN is not interested in going up. Then there was a broader rally between 13.50 to 14.45 where BN also participated and this time we took out the swing high. 99% of traders would not have predicted what would happen next. We fell 358pts ~ 0.81% between 14.45 to 15.10, at that moment I had no idea what could be the related news that triggered it. Later found out about the RBI’s risk flag regarding new loans especially unsecured, credit-cards & loans from banks to NBFC - source. What we understand is that RBI has hiked the Capital Adequacy Ratio by 25% for a few types of loans. CAR is a measure of the strength of the bank if a majority of its loans default. This could just be a warning shot & I would like to dig into this information as time permits. A few starting points would be the bank’s recent loan growth, the percentage of unsecured loans, and the real impact of the recent rate hike that got progressed to the end user. On the 1hr TF, BankNifty retests the 44063 support today but its well within the ascending channel envelope. I wish to change my stance from bullish to neutral and would like to go bearish if 44063 gives away in the forenoon session. To go bullish, I would wait till 44542 is broken on the hourly candle.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
16th Nov ’23 Nifty Postmortem - Almost breaks 19776 resistanceNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty50 has gained 359pts ~ 1.85% and broken 2 important resistance levels. We almost took out the 19776 resistance today but for a strong red candle @ 14.15. Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, the next target to break will be 19776 which is just 100pts away. Something that is easily possible if SPX holds its ground today. Since most of the market participants are long-only, any upsurge will sweep in more market participants.” Nifty opened inline and then was steaming ahead, As we discussed yesterday it took out the 19776 with so much ease. The 3 5mts candles between 11.00 to 11.10 showed how the momentum picked up right before the resistance zone which kind of indicated that the rally was not going to slow down. By 13.55 we picked up more pace, quite visible by the FII participation on the BUY side. We hit an intraday high of 19875 by 14.45 and then something unplanned happened. We dropped 153pts in the 25 minutes, we will explain that in detail during the BankNifty Analysis below. On the 1hr chart, we closed slightly below 19776, the 14.15 hourly candle is well-lit like a beacon. I am still continuing my bullish stance in the hopes that 19776 will get taken out during the forenoon session tomorrow. If not, I will be changing my stance to neutral and will update it via tradingview minds.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
11th Nov ’23 BankNifty PostMortem, bit of catching up is pendingBankNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, BankNifty has gone up by 421pts ~ 0.96%. Bulk of those gains came in from the gap-up today. The real good outcome in this week was to break out from the 44063 resistance level which was proving to be quite a nuisance for BN. BankNifty Today Analysis Dont get confused with the chart below, I will explain the sloping lines shortly. Notice the gap up of 519pts ~ 1.18% today took out the crucial resistance of 44063. A walk down the history will teach you how crucial was that. 44068 was the most important level in recent times and a breach means there is only 1 way to go - UP. BankNifty after opening strongly started falling and it started to slow down only at 44200 levels. Of all the major sectors, BN proved to be the laggard in supporting Nifty50 today. NiftyIT on the other hand ended up with a whopping gain of 2.59%. All that is due to the SPX and Nasdaq closing yesterday. And its time to explain the ascending channel that we started drawing from the last post-mortem. BankNifty has respected the channel - more proof visible after the 1st hourly candle today. If we consider the break out from the resistance level of 44063 along with the ascending channel - its a strong bullish signal for BankNifty. Today’s underperformance will get covered up soon as BN usually goes ahead of Nifty during strong trends. My next level comes up at 44542, support is at 44063.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram