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Probabilities

BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS 18/2/2021Last week in the market, we were looking a possible breakout or breakdown situation on both Nifty and Bank Nifty. It turns out, it was a breakout towards 15,400 and 37,700. Now it looks there is a possibility of a false breakout as well. If the market fails at one at one end of the range, it generally tests the other extreme side. Here, we also have a head and shoulders pattern. The call writing in today's expiry for BNF 37,000CE was 106K. DIIs have also been net sellers for a while now. For the coming week, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts at this level. If the breakdown occurs below 36,400, there could be some selling pressure to re-test 36,000. If the market does move higher again, there is strong resistance at 37,000. I do not have a bias on the possibilities, because the market is too overstretched with heavy liquidity.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by ArcherDAVIS
ADANIPORTS ANALYSIS200 DMA is a great simple strategy which provides good RR trades such as this one. The idea here is simple. Markets tend to be range bound 80% of the time, which is called the contraction phase. The other 20% of the time the market is breaking out, called the expansion phase. To win the game, it is important to understand the probabilities and play the probabilities. For the price to breakout above key resistance levels and breakdown below key support levels, there has to be a catalyst that enables this to happen. The catalyst can be macro-economic news, good/poor earning reports, breakout of war, elections etc. Such news comes about often but is still rather rare. Range bound trades enable a higher probability of success and lower risk as the stop loss that one can place is closer to the price. A breakout trade on the other hand will have a stop loss on the other extreme of the range, increasing the risk significantly. Hammer pattern which has been formed on this chart is a good indication of a a fresh bearish move starting. It shows that the higher prices have been rejected yet again. DM me if you have any questions and LIKE if you found this helpful! :)
NSE:ADANIPORTSEducation
by ArcherDAVIS
BSV finally moved. New bottom, New Future.I'd like to ask about the probability of this happening. 0-100% rating system. 1. What is the probability that BSV will shoot lower, move sideways and then shoot up? 2. What is the probability BSV move sideways and then shoots up? 3. What is the probability of this being a fake out, and tomorrow will shoot up? Looking at the history of BSV and how it moves gives us a chance to see BSV personality. 1. What is the probability that history patterns repeat in similar ways? Once we can think of this, I think that the price will hold here a little while or drop more, I'll give it a week to see what it does. Looking at the weekly chart, its a candle without a High wick, this is powerful considering crypto doesnt rest on weekends. The weekly looks strong, so there is a possibility of buyers keeping the price where it is, or there is a possibility buyers want a lower price to get in. Unless major news or utility kicks in I don't ssee the price skyrocketing this week. As I always say, I already have positions in, I've managed my account where I'm a certain percent in with a comfortable unrealized loss %, at the same time I have some ammunition(money) waiting to be placed in at lower prices or current prices, depending on what happens this week. Either way I'm set in any direction it moves. Cheers, Happy trading.
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by JacobTrader100