28th Dec ’23 - 94% of Q3 gains came in DEC - BankNifty AmazingBankNifty Quarterly Analysis
Surprisingly BankNifty rose only 9.56% ~ 4232pts compared to 11.6% by Nifty. There are 2 reasons for this.
RBI’s I-CRR and CAR weight adjustments decisions rocked the boat and BN fell much more than N50
NiftyIT rose to the occasion and supported N50, in the same period NiftyIT gained almost 12%
1D chart link - click here
BankNifty Monthly Analysis
94% of the Quarterly gains came in the December series alone. It was like a relay race and during the last lap, BN ran so fast that it made up for the losses in the earlier 2 months.
1D chart link - click here
BankNifty Analysis
The gap up really helped BankNifty to cross the top boundary of the ascending channel. After that happened, all BN had to do today was to resist falling below that inclined support level. In fact BN did that beautifully today and in the process hit a new ATH of 48636.
4mts chart link - click here
The monthly options expiry is much better than the weekly ones. Primarily because the premiums are pretty high when Nifty and BankNifty have expiry on the same day. From a trader’s perspective, the earnings are directly proportional to the premiums the strike carries. During volatile expiries like today, the premium is too sugary to resist.
63mts chart link - click here
BN trade above the ascending channel top line is not that clear from the chart as the line is seen as cutting it through. On a lower TF, you can clearly see the difference. For tomorrow also, we are going with the bullish stance.
Quarterly
28th Dec ’23 - New ATH on the last day of the Quarter & MonthNifty Quarterly Analysis
Nifty has gained 2263pts ~ 11.6% in the 3rd Quarter of FY2023-24. Almost on 9 particular days, we hit new all-time highs.
1D chart link - click here
Nifty Monthly Analysis
Surprisingly 70% of the gains for the Q3 came in the December series. We rose 8.21% ~ 1653pts. 8 out of the 9 ATH breaks also came in the Dec series. It really was a December to remember for the bulls.
1D chart link - click here
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “Nifty has created another bullish trend line above the ascending channel. The level of euphoria is beyond compare & N50 has managed to give stellar returns this calendar year. Anyway — I will be hoping for a bullish continuation and a new top for tomorrow.”
4mts chart link - click here
On the last day of the month and Q3, Nifty makes a new all-time high of 21801. So the magic level of 21800 is conquered. Guessing most of the buying would have been propelled by the FIIs and that too after 14.59. India VIX went over 16% but ended the day at 15.14. I feel like the Bears have lost control of the situation here, not just that they can check the bull runs but are ceding territory far too easily.
Investors really love bull markets, their portfolio grows greener day by day. But from a trading perspective, a high level of euphoria is dangerous. The CALL options of the 04 Jan series were trading 25 to 40% higher than usual rates. The collapse of this excess in the last 15mts would have taken many traders by surprise. When we place market orders - we seldom realize the “fair value” of strikes.
63mts chart link- click here
Nifty is definitely on cloud 9, the newfound momentum is intact and almost all the sectorial indices are strong. What next? Is a big question. Just like a goods train, it is difficult to stop the bull run that fast. Global markets are also at all-time-high levels and the macros are improving. For tomorrow, I wish to continue my bullish stance with the first support level at 21652.
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 28 JUN 2023Quarterly Analysis of BankNifty — 31 Mar 2023 to 28 Jun 2023
Banknify gained an impressive 4412pts ~ 11.05% in Q1 FY2023–24. During this process it took out 11 crucial resistance points to finish at the ATH. The upmove was quite strong till 15th May after which BN started trading sideways. Status quo changed on 27th when it broke through the final resistance point of 44068 paving way for an ATH record break today.
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Monthly Expiry Analysis Banknifty — 26 May 2023 to 28 Jun 2023
BN gained 1.64% ~ 716pts in the current month. Basically on 29th May it hit the ATH level and from there we had 2 resistance rejections & 2 support rejections.
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Weekly Expiry Analysis Banknifty — 23 Jun 2023 to 28 Jun 2023
BN rallied 1.54% ~ 671pts in the current expiry week. Of this 100% of the gains came between yesterday and today. Prior to that BN was looking weak and was heading to the support area. The sentiment change lifted BN to break through.
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Daily Analysis BankNifty
Most of the hard-work was done by the Gap-up opening. Out of the total 0.47% gains, 0.4% gain came via the gapup. BN was just maintaining its cool today and did not try to do anything foolish. N50 was rallying very strongly, BN just utilized that momentum to finish with a new ATH.
The chart indicates a steady rising pattern, unlike the usual BN where we have lots of wild swings. Notice the 3 green candles between 14.15 to 14.25 — thats when the ATH was taken out. After that we did see some profit booking plus monthly rebalancing outflow/inflow adjustments by Mutual Fund houses.
Orient Bell Positive Result ReactionWith quarterly sales increasing by 24% and quarter profit increasing by 64%, NSE:ORIENTBELL posted good set of numbers and the share broke out of a 6 month old trading zone. It came down to its support at Rs. 421 and now bouncing back. It's a good buy at this level with a stop loss around Rs. 420. Either sell below the stop loss or when the share closes below daily supertrend.
ICICIBANK Intraday support and resistances 24/01/2022 after Q3ICICIBANK has posted exceptional Q3 results and is expected to open gap up on Monday, we can expect to see levels of 820-840 on Gap up, if this gap up sustains we can also see levels of 850/860 Intraday itself,
If there is no gap up, these levels can also act as Intraday Resistances
ALLCARGO Logistics (Positional Study)Let us study ALLCARGO Logistics for Positional Investment prospects.
Chart Structure:
- Price has broken out All-Time-High of 2018.
- Price has crossed the previous swing high above ATH.
- Stock is in an uptrend since May.
Volume & Deliveries:
- Huge deliveries had happened in July & August near ATH Range.
- From 19th July to 4th Aug. 2.04 cr. shares were delivered with an Average of 17.01 lac shares per day. The previous average was 2.63 lac shares /day. (Average price = 186.54/- per share)
- From 10th to 17th August, again 60 lac shares were delivered with an Average of 15.06 lac shares per day. (Average price 207.86/- per share)
- Huge accumulation has been witnessed near the All-Time-High Price Range.
Relative Strength:
- Stock became RS positive on 25th June.
- Since becoming RS+ stock has not Flipped-Flopped and was only increasing.
- Stock is outperforming Nifty50 as well as Midcap100 index.
- Stock is outperforming its sector & benchmark in all 1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y, 2Y & 5Y timeframe.
Financial Performance:
- ALLCARGO's Q1 Sales growth was 3% QoQ & 66% YoY
- Q1 PBT growth stood at 1019% QoQ & 442% YoY
- Q1 PAT growth stood at 117% QoQ & 144% YoY
Sectoral Performance:
- Logistics sector has broken out of its previous high on 2nd September.
- The sector is outperforming the Nifty & Midcap index.
- Outperformance in the sectoral index has again started after 2nd September when the Spread chart value has crossed over its 50MA.
Good stock for positional study.
FORTIS looks lood positionallyChart Structure:
- Price came out of Darvas Box consolidation on 17th August.
- Consolidation was happening from May to August.
- After the Range breakout, the price took a little pullback.
Volume & Deliveries:
- During the consolidation phase, many days with positive volume activities were witnessed.
- Average Deliveries were 10.79 lac shares per day before Darvas Breakout.
- During breakout the average deliveries per day were 38.60 lac shares.
- In total, 7 sessions during the breakout, a total of 2.70 crore shares were delivered.
- Out of 2.70 crores, 41.86 lac shares were purchased by The Big Bull (Rakesh Jhunjhnwala)
- During the month of July, 19 Mutual Funds have increased their Holdings in Fortis whereas 8 Mutual Funds has decreased their holdings.
Relative Strength:
- From 8th March, the stock started outperforming Nifty in absolute terms in 6 months TF & from Adaptive RS date 16-Feb 2021
- Since then, the stock is outperforming Nifty as well as the Midcap index.
- Stock is outperforming the benchmark index and its sectoral index in 1W, 1M, 3M, 6M, 1Y & 2Y Timeframes.
- First Spread chart breakout happened on 18th August & the Second Spread breakout happened today on 27th August.
- With its performance in all timeframes and spread breakouts, it is established that the stock is an absolute outperformed, a Tendulkar indeed.
Company's Financial Performance:
- Fortis's Sales growth QoQ is 13% & 133% YoY
- PBT Growth stood at 342% QoQ & 1179% YoY
- PAT growth stood at 514% QoQ & 6700% YoY
- Overall company has posted super Quarterly numbers.
Sectoral Performance:
- A breakout happened after a consolidation of 2 months in the Healthcare Index (custom) and the index rose by 19.50% from that point. Another breakout happened recently on 16th August.
- Healthcare index is outperforming Nifty & the Midcap index in both short term (55) & long term (123)
Other Note-worthy points:
- Due to the geopolitical tensions happening due to the Afghanistan situation and due to the fear of the third wave of Covid, the institutional money has been shifting towards defensive sectors, like FMGC, Pharma etc.
- In this point, Big Bull has also increased his positions in Fortis, now owning more than 5% of the company.
- Due to these sectoral tailwinds and other factors, the stock is expected to perform well.
Most of the above-discussed factors look positive in favor of Fortis. The stock giving favorable returns positionally is probable.
JUBILANT INGREVIA - Positional StudyAbout:
Jubilant Ingrevia was Demerged from Jubilant Lifesciences in February 2021. It is in the business of Speciality chemicals, Animal & human nutrition, life science chemicals, ethanol etc.
- Stock is in a continuous uptrend.
- Price today crossed the previous swing high after forming a base at Support Level (which was earlier a resistance)
- Price broke out with good volumes with good accumulation activity at the end of July.
- Spread chart also gave a breakout of the previous swing high.
Financial Results:
- Jubilant's QoQ Sales growth is 67%
- QoQ Profit growth is 211%
Jubilant Ingrevia is looking financially & technically sound. It looks good for positional investment.
Indusind Bank Trade Setup For Monday (3rd May)950 is a strong resistance level.
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On Friday, IndusInd Bank share tried two three to break this level but failed.
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So maybe on Monday, it can break the levels 979 is our first Target.
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On Friday company announced a very good Quarter Results.
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So maybe there is 1% chances that you can see the profit booking .
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But trust me if it's goes down you can accumulate this share for positional purpose.
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You can give your suggestions in comment box.
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