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NZDUSD reverses from 200-SMA hurdle on RBNZ’s surprise rate cutNZDUSD dropped over 1.0% today, making the biggest move among major currencies. This happened because the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its main interest rate by 0.25%, surprising markets which expected no change. As a result, the NZDUSD pair fell from a one-month high and struggled to break through a key resistance level, namely the 200-day SMA. Despite this, positive MACD and RSI indicators suggest that buyers may stay optimistic, as long as the price remains above a support line from late October 2023, currently around 0.5885. For the short-term, the quote could drop to the 0.6000 mark and potentially test a 23.6% Fibonacci support level around 0.5920. A drop below 0.5885 could push the pair towards its late 2023 low of around 0.5770. For a new buying opportunity, buyers should wait for the price to break above the 200-SMA resistance at about 0.6085. If successful, the next targets could be the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a significant resistance zone near 0.6170 and 0.6220. If the price stays above 0.6220, the 78.6% Fibonacci level around 0.6275 and a long-term resistance line near 0.6320 could be the next barriers for the bulls. In summary, while NZDUSD might see a short-term drop due to negative factors, the overall bullish trend is expected to continue.
by MTradingGlobal
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RBNZ’s dovish halt, downbeat China CPI weigh on NZDUSD Early Wednesday, NZDUSD prints the biggest daily fall in a fortnight on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) dovish halt, as well as a softer print of China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. That said, the RBNZ matched market expectations for holding the benchmark rate unchanged but showed readiness to welcome easy monetary policy if inflation slows further. On the other hand, China's CPI dropped to -0.2% MoM and 0.2% YoY in June versus -0.1% and 0.4% market expectations, from -0.1% and 0.3% in that order. With this, NZDUSD drops more than 0.50% on a day as sellers attack the 200-SMA support of 0.6076. Adjacent to that is strong technical support comprising the 100-SMA and an 11-week-old rising support line, close to 0.6065 by the press time. In a case where the Kiwi pair prints a daily closing beneath 0.6065, a slew of peaks and troughs surrounding 0.6040-35 will test the sellers before directing them to the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, an impending bull cross on the MACD and downbeat RSI joins the key supports to signal the NZDUSD pair’s corrective bounce, which in turn highlights a three-week-long horizontal resistance area near 0.6150-55. Should the Kiwi pair manage to cross the immediate upside hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of the quote’s fall from December 2023 to April 2024, near 0.6175, will precede a six-month-old horizontal resistance zone around 0.6215-22 to act as the final defenses of the bears. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to witness a corrective bounce but the recovery remains doubtful below 0.6222.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD jumps on RBNZ’s hawkish halt, 0.6140-45 hurdle tests bullNZDUSD prints the biggest daily jump in more than a week, as well as snaps a two-day losing streak, on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hawkish halt. That said, the RBNZ held the benchmark rates unchanged, as expected, but upwardly revised the forward rate guidance. The same pushed back the rate cut and signaled expectations of a rate hike during the year. As a result, the Kiwi pair rallied to the 2.5-month high after the RBNZ announcements before retreating from 0.6152, up more than half a percent intraday by the press time. In addition to the hawkish RBNZ concerns, the NZDUSD pair’s successful trading beyond the previous resistance line stretched from late December 2023, bullish MACD signals and the upbeat RSI (14) line also keeps the buyers hopeful. However, a daily closing beyond a downward-sloping resistance line from January, near 0.6140 by the press time, becomes necessary for trading conviction. Adjacent to the 0.6140 hurdle is the previous weekly high and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s late 2023 upside, near 0.6145. Hence, the bulls need validation from 0.6140-45 to keep the reins. Following that, the double tops marked in February and March around 0.6220 and 23.6% Fibonacci ratio near 0.6230, followed by the 0.6280-85 resistance region, will become the upside targets. On the contrary, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a three-week-old rising trend line, around 0.6075-70 at the latest, restricts the NZDUSD pair’s short-term downside ahead of the previously stated resistance-turned-support line near 0.6060. In a case where the Kiwi pair remains bearish past 0.6060, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near the 0.6000 threshold, will act as the final defense of the bears before directing the prices toward the yearly low of near 0.5850. Overall, the Kiwi pair is likely to remain firmer unless declining back beneath the 0.6060 level. However, fresh buying should wait for a clear upside break of 0.6145.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD grinds higher past 0.6000 ahead of RBNZ, US InflationNZDUSD remains positive around 0.6035-40 early Tuesday, despite lacking upside momentum of late. In doing so, the Kiwi pair defends the previous week’s rebound from the lowest level since November 2023 while portraying the trader’s anxiety ahead of Wednesday’s monetary policy announcements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It should be noted that the recovery in price takes the support of the upbeat RSI (14) conditions and the bullish MACD signals, which in turn suggests brighter chances of the quote’s further advances. However, the 200-SMA and a five-month-old previous support line, respectively near 0.6070 and 0.6115, appear tough nuts to crack for the bulls. In a case where the buyers manage to keep the reins past 0.6115, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward a four-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6220 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s October-November upside, close to the 0.6000 psychological magnet, restricts the immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair. Following that, the aforementioned horizontal area comprising lows marked since mid-November 2023, near 0.5940, will be the key challenge for the Kiwi pair sellers to pass before retaking control. Should the pair remain bearish past 0.5940, the November 14 low of around 0.5860 will act as the final defense of the buyers before driving prices down to the previous yearly bottom of 0.5773. Overall, the NZDUSD pair is likely to extend the latest rebound ahead of the RBNZ and the US CPI, unless the output of the data/events suggests otherwise.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD drops 1.0% on RBNZ’s dovish halt, focus on 0.6080-70NZDUSD marks the biggest daily loss in two weeks as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces monetary policy decision. That said, the RBNZ not only pushed back the concerns about rate hikes while keeping the practices unchanged but Governor Adrian Orr signaled the end of the rate hike trajectory in his press conference and drowned the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). With this, the quote extends the previous day’s U-turn from the 50-SMA hurdle while justifying a looming bear cross on the MACD. However, a convergence of the 200-SMA, an upward-sloping trend line from mid-November 2023 and a 50% Fibonacci ratio of the Kiwi pair’s October-December 2023 upside, near 0.6080-70, appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Should the quote manage to remain bearish past 0.6070, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the 0.6000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-SMA will restrict the NZDUSD pair’s corrective bounce respectively near 0.6150 and 0.6180. Following that, the 0.6200 round figure and the monthly high of around 0.6220 will lure the Kiwi pair buyers. It should be noted that the quote’s sustained run-up beyond 0.6220 will need validation from the 0.6280 and the 0.6300 upside hurdles before targeting the late 2023 peak of around 0.6370. Overall, the RBNZ disappoints the Kiwi bulls and lures the pair bears but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD bulls can ignore recent pullbackNZDUSD drops the most among the G10 currency pairs while reversing the previous weekly gains, the first in four, as market players show a lack of conviction in the hawkish speech from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr. It’s worth noting that a long holiday season in China also allowed the Kiwi pair traders to consolidate the previous week’s upside ahead of the US inflation data, scheduled for release on Tuesday. However, Friday’s falling wedge confirmation and bullish MACD signals, as well as the upbeat RSI (14) line, favor the quote’s gradual rise unless it slips back beneath the 0.6100 resistance-turned-support. Even so, the 100-SMA and the stated bullish chart pattern’s lower line, respectively near 0.6075 and 0.6030, quickly followed by the 0.6000 psychological magnet, will challenge the pair sellers before giving them control. Meanwhile, fresh buying in the NZDUSD pair can wait for a clear upside break of a five-week-old horizontal resistance surrounding 0.6175-80. Following that, the mid-January swing high of around 0.6280 and the late 2023 peak of near 0.6370 will lure the Kiwi pair buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6370, the theoretical target of the falling wedge breakout, namely around 0.6450, will be in the spotlight. Overall, the NZDUSD pair’s latest retreat becomes less attractive unless backed by the downbeat US inflation data, as well as a sustained trading beneath 0.6100.
by MTradingGlobal
Falling wedge, oversold RSI tease NZDUSD buyers on RBNZ dayNZDUSD bears appear running out of steam after a four-week downtrend as the Kiwi pair portrays a one-month-old falling wedge bullish chart formation at the yearly low amid the oversold RSI (14) line. That said, the 10-DMA surrounding 0.6045 guards immediate recovery of the quote ahead of the key 0.6060 resistance comprising the top line of the stated wedge. In a case where the bulls manage to keep control after crossing the 0.6060 hurdle, June’s high of around 0.6250 and a six-month-long horizontal area near 0.6380-90 can test the upside momentum before the falling wedge’s theoretical target of 0.6535. It’s worth noting that the said 0.6535 level coincides with the yearly peak marked in February and hence becomes the key hurdle for the buyers to watch afterward. On the contrary, the aforementioned wedge’s lower line restricts the immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair around 0.5920, a break of which will defy the bullish chart pattern. However, the 0.5900 round figure and a downward-sloping support line from early March, close to 0.5880, could challenge the bears afterward. In a case where the Kiwi sellers refrain from stepping back past 0.5880, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, around 0.5730, will act as the last defense of the buyers before directing the quote to the previous yearly low of near 0.5515. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to witness recovery as the RBNZ managed to lure Kiwi buyers without doing much. However, Fed Minutes will be crucial to watch for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD crosses 200-EMA within bearish channel despite RBNZ inactNZDUSD jumps to a three-week high while piercing the 200-EMA even as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) refrains from lifting interest rates for the first time since October 2021. It’s worth noting, however, that the Kiwi pair remains within a five-month-old bearish channel while approaching the immediate hurdle, namely the previous monthly high of around 0.6250. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past 0.6250, the stated channel’s top line, close to 0.6290, quickly followed by the 0.6300 round figure, will be crucial to watch as a clear break of the same won’t hesitate to challenge the yearly peak marked in February around 0.6540. On the flip side, a daily closing beneath the 200-EMA, around 0.6220 at the latest, can trigger NZDUSD pullback toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 run-up, near 0.6150. Following that, a six-week-old rising support line surrounding 0.6085 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of near 0.6030 can test the Kiwi pair sellers. In a case where the quote remains weak past 0.6030, the 0.6000 psychological magnet precedes the stated channel’s bottom line, near 0.5930, to act as the last defense of the buyers. Overall, NZDUSD shrugs off RBNZ’s status quo and is on the way to challenging the bearish chart pattern.
by MTradingGlobal
Technical Analysis: NZDUSD slumps on RBNZ, 200-DMA and 0.6130 reNZDUSD fails to justify the RBNZ’s 0.25% rate hike as it drops the most in a week after the Interest Rate Decision. The reason could be linked to the New Zealand central bank’s keeping of top rate level and the Governor’s inability to defend the hawkish move. With this, the Kiwi pair drops towards the 200-DMA support of around 0.6150. However, an upward-sloping support line from early March, close to 0.6130 by the press time, may challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the NZDUSD remains bearish past 0.6130,s the yearly low marked in March around 0.6105 and the 0.6100 may act as the last force to stop the sellers. On the contrary, a two-week-old descending resistance line near 0.6305 restricts the immediate upside of the NZDUSD pair during any recovery. Following that, the monthly high of around 0.6385 and the 0.6400 round figure may prod the Kiwi pair buyers before directing them to the yearly high of around 0.6540, printed in February. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to decline further but the room towards the south appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD bulls struggle to retake control as RBNZ week beginsNZDUSD managed to ignore the US Dollar strength in the last week amid hawkish expectations from the RBNZ. The kiwi pair also bounced off a one-month-old ascending support line, as well as stayed beyond the 200-SMA, to keep the buyers hopeful. However, an expected last rate hike from the New Zealand central bank might pour cold water on the face of the Kiwi pair bulls. Even so, the stated key SMA and immediate support line, respectively near 0.6240 and 0.6210, can challenge the bears before giving them control. Following that, multiple lows marked around 0.6170-60 may rest the downside momentum ahead of highlighting a challenge for the April and May month bottoms, close to 0.6110 and 0.6085 in that order. Alternatively, a surprise hawkish move and the RBNZ’s restrain from pausing the rate hikes may fuel the NZDUSD price. In that case, a five-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6315 may prod the Kiwi pair buyers. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 0.6315, the monthly high of around 0.6385 may prod the bulls ahead of highlighting the rush towards the yearly high marked in February around 0.6540. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain firmer unless any dovish surprise from RBNZ erupts.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD bulls eyes 0.6400 as RBNZ surprises marketsNZDUSD extends the early March’s bearish consolidation inside a three-week-old ascending trend channel as RBNZ announces the 11th consecutive rate increase. More importantly, the New Zealand central bank pleases the Kiwi bulls to renew the 7-week top by a surprise 0.50% rate hike versus the 0.25% expected. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI conditions approach overbought territory and hence a horizontal area comprising tops marked during early February, surrounding 0.6390, appears a tough nut to crack for the NZDUSD buyers. Also acting as an upside filter is the late January swing low near 0.6415, a break of which can propel prices towards the YTD high marked in February around 0.6540. Meanwhile, sellers need validation from the previous resistance line stretched from early March, around 0.6305, as well as the 0.6300 round figure, to retake control. Even so, a convergence of the stated channel’s bottom line and the 200-SMA, close to 0.6210, restricts the short-term NZDUSD downside. Also acting as immediate downside support is the 0.6200 round figure. In a case where the Kiwi pair remains bearish past 0.6200, the 0.6150 and 0.6130 levels mark probe the sellers before directing them to the yearly low of around 0.6085. Overall, NZDUSD suggests the continuation of a three-week-old zig-zag run-up unless the US data surprises traders.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD bears struggle with 200-DMA on RBNZ dayNZDUSD dribbles around a seven-week low as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 0.50% rate hike on Wednesday. In doing so, the Kiwi pair fades the previous week’s bounce off 200-DMA amid a nearly oversold RSI (14). That said, bearish MACD signals and an early February reversal from a six-month-old ascending resistance line keep the sellers hopeful of breaking the 0.6185 DMA support. Following that, the September 2022 high of near 0.6160 acts as an extra filter towards the south, a break of which could quickly drag the quote to the last July’s bottom of 0.6060. It’s worth observing that the pair’s weakness past 0.6060 won’t hesitate to break the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, recovery moves need a daily closing beyond the three-week-old resistance line, close to 0.6275 by the press time, to convince NZDUSD bulls. In a case where the Kiwi pair manages to cross the 0.6275 hurdle, the previous weekly top surrounding 0.6390 and the 0.6400 round figure could challenge the upside momentum. During the quote’s sustained run-up beyond 0.6400, the previously mentioned ascending resistance line near 0.6545 precedes the double tops marked during late 2022, around 0.6570-75, which will be a tough nut to crack for the bulls before retaking control. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain on the bear’s radar and hints at more downside on the RBNZ day.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD stays on the buyer’s radar on RBNZ dayDespite the RBNZ-led volatility, NZDUSD defends the early month breakout of the 100-DMA and a downward-sloping trend line from April 05. That said, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s April-October downturn, near 0.6090, restricts the Kiwi pair’s immediate declines ahead of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support line, close to 0.6040 at the latest. Following that, the 100-DMA and a six-week-old ascending trend line, respectively near 0.6015 and the 0.6000 round figure, could act as the last defenses of the pair buyers before welcoming the bears. Meanwhile, the pair’s upside momentum needs a daily closing beyond the monthly high surrounding 0.6205 to convince NZDUSD buyers. In that case, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 200-DMA, close to 0.6270 and 0.6305 in that order, will be in the spotlight. Should the New Zealand dollar remains firmer beyond the 200-DMA, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, also known as the golden ratio, might probe the north-run near 0.6455, a break of which won’t hesitate to challenge the tops marked in May-June around 0.6570-75. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to remain the bull’s favorite unless breaks the 0.6000 threshold.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD struggles to justify RBNZ’s eighth rate hikeAlthough the RBNZ didn’t disappoint, like the RBA, and announced a widely expected 0.50% rate hike, the NZDUSD pair remains mildly bid after refreshing the weekly top. In doing so, the Kiwi pair stays below a one-week-old horizontal hurdle surrounding 0.5750. With this, the odds of the quote’s pullback towards the latest swing low near 0.5680 can’t be ruled out. However, the 0.5620 and the yearly low around 0.5565 will challenge the bears afterward. Meanwhile, a successful break of the 0.5750 resistance will aim for the 100-SMA hurdle near 0.5830. Following that, a downward sloping trend line from August 12, close to 0.5925 by the press time, will challenge the NZDUSD pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that the 200-SMA resistance near 0.5980 appears the last defense of the bears, a break of which won’t hesitate to probe the previous monthly top near 0.6160. Overall, NZDUSD remains in a bear trap despite the latest rebound. The downside, however, appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD hovers above 0.5890 key support as the Fed week beginsNZDUSD dropped to the lowest level since May 2020 before bouncing off 0.5940 on Friday. The recovery, however, remains unattractive as the Kiwi pair stays inside a six-week-old bearish channel. Even so, the oversold RSI conditions may allow short-term buyers to aim for 0.6100-10 resistance confluence, including the 21-DMA and the stated channel’s upper line. It’s worth noting that multiple lows marked during late July and early August could act as extra upside filters around 0.6220, a break of which could quickly propel the prices towards the previous monthly top near 0.6470. Alternatively, a convergence of the aforementioned channel’s bottom and a downward sloping support line from May 12 constitute the 0.5890 level as a crucial downside support for the NZDUSD bears to watch during the pair’s further declines. Also acting as an extra check for sellers is the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s April-August moves, near 0.5870. If at all the Kiwi pair breaks the 0.5870 support, the odds of its south-run towards the 78.6% FE level surrounding the 0.5700 threshold can’t be ruled out. Overall, NZDUSD remains in a bearish trend ahead of the key FOMC meeting, as well as today’s speech from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD stays on the way to refreshing yearly lowNZDUSD picks up bids inside a weekly trading range that restricts the pair’s move after it dropped below a five-week-old ascending trend line and the 200-SMA. Given the quote’s sustained trading below the previous key supports, as well as the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), the pair is likely to witness further downside. That said, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of July-August upside, near 0.6150, appears immediate rest of the sellers ahead of the yearly bottom marked in July around 0.6060. If the bears dominate past 0.6060, which is most likely, the south-run could well approach the 0.6000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, the NZDUSD rebound remains tepid until the quote stays below the convergence of the 200-SMA and the support-turned-resistance line, close to 0.6250. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 0.6315 and the August 01 peak surrounding 0.6355 will be on the bull’s radar. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s run-up beyond 0.6355 won’t hesitate to challenge the monthly top close to 0.6470, with the 0.6400 round figure likely acting as an intermediate halt during the rise. Overall, NZDUSD is on the bear’s radar as RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr is bracing for a speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD rebound appears unconvincing below 0.6250NZDUSD bounces off a five-week low as it extends the corrective pullback from a weekly falling channel’s support line. In doing so, the Kiwi pair also traces the oversold RSI while approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of July-August moves, around 0.6215. The quote’s further upside, however, remains doubtful as the 200-SMA and upper line of the stated channel, close to 0.6250, will challenge the bulls afterward. Should the pair rise past 0.6250, the 0.6300 round figure may act as an intermediate halt during the run-up towards the early August swing high, near 0.6350-55. Alternatively, pullback moves may revisit the support line of the aforementioned channel and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, around 0.6150, will be a crucial support. In a case where the NZDUSD bears conquer 0.6150 support, the southward trajectory towards the yearly low marked in July, near 0.6060, followed by the 0.6000 psychological magnet, can’t be ruled out. Overall, NZDUSD is likely to witness further recovery but the upside momentum has limited room to the north.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD braces for fresh 2022 low with eyes on 0.6195 breakAlthough 20-DMA triggered the NZDUSD pair’s latest rebound, the first weekly loss in three joined RSI retreat to keep bears hopeful. The downside momentum, however, needs validation from the three-month-old horizontal support area around 0. 6210-0.6195, other than the 20-DMA level of 0.6225, to push back the buyers. Following that, the previous monthly low, also the yearly bottom surrounding 0.6060, will be in focus. Should the quote remains bearish past 0.6060, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late April to early August moves, close to 0.5990, may lure the sellers. Meanwhile, recovery moves remain unimpressive below a downward sloping resistance line from early June, around 0.6335 by the press time. Even so, the monthly peak surrounding 0.6355 and the mid-June swing high of 0.6395 could challenge the NZDUSD buyers. It’s worth noting, however, that the Kiwi pair’s run-up beyond 0.6395 may wait for a successful run-up above the 0.6400 round figure before giving the control to bulls targeting June’s high near 0.6575. Overall, NZDUSD is on the bear’s radar as traders await key inflation data from New Zealand and the US.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
200-SMA tests NZDUSD bears after New Zealand employment dataNZDUSD justifies downbeat Q2 New Zealand job numbers while refreshing weekly low, following downside break of a three-week-old bullish channel. However, the 200-SMA restricts further declines of the Kiwi pair, which in turn joins firmer China PMI to trigger the latest rebound. However, support line of the aforementioned channel, near 0.6255, guards immediate recovery moves ahead of directing buyers towards weekly peak of 0.6352. Following that, the Kiwi pair can aim for the mid-June high around 0.6395. However, the 0.6400 threshold and upper line of the stated channel, around 0.6410 by the press time, could challenge the pair’s further advances. Meanwhile, a downside move needs validation from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June 16 to July 14 fall, around 0.6190. Following that, the NZDUSD bears can aim for the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 0.6140. In a case where the pair remains weak past 0.6140, it won’t hesitate to drag the quote towards the yearly low marked in July around 0.6060. Additionally, the south-run towards the 0.6000 psychological magnet becomes imminent in a case if the pair renews yearly low.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD recovery hinges on 0.6200 breakoutNZDUSD ended the third loss-making week on a positive side, by marking the biggest daily gains in three weeks. The Kiwi pair, however, couldn’t cross a one-month-old resistance line, which in turn joins steady RSI to keep sellers hopeful. Even if the quote rises past 0.6170 hurdle, a horizontal area from mid-June around 0.6200, comprising the 100-SMA, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. Though, a successful break of 0.6200 could quickly propel the quote towards 0.6250 before teasing the bulls to aim for the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July downside, near 0.6325. On the other hand, pullback moves may initially rest around the 0.6100 support before challenging the recently flashed two-year low around 0.6060. In a case where NZDUSD remains bearish past 0.6060, the 0.6000 psychological magnet will be important to watch as a clear break of the same could direct sellers toward May 2020 low near 0.5920. Fundamentally, the recent New Zealand inflation data came in firmer than expected and raised possibilities of aggressive rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), keeping NZDUSD bulls hopeful.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD bears keep reins ahead of RBNZ again lift ratesHaving reversed from a two-month-old support-turned-resistance, NZDUSD stays inside a monthly falling wedge bullish chart pattern ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) third consecutive rate hike. RSI conditions and a falling wedge at multi-month low tease sellers ahead of the key event for the Kiwi pair. However, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April-June moves, near 0.6060, can test the sellers before directing them to the 0.6000 psychological magnet. That said, the support line of the stated wedge, close to 0.6100, could serve as immediate support to watch during the quote’s further weakness. On the contrary, the NZDUSD rebound needs to cross the wedge’s upper line, around 0.6170 by the press time, to confirm the bullish chart pattern. Even so, horizontal support from early May, close to 0.6210, may challenge the buyers. Also acting as a short-term upside hurdle is the 20-DMA level surrounding 0.6250. In a case where NZDUSD rises past 0.6250, the odds of its run-up to mid-June swing high near 0.6400 can’t be ruled out. NZDUSD is likely to rebound from the 26-month low but the recovery moves have multiple barriers to the north.
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD bulls eye four-month-long hurdle past 0.6500 on RBNZNZDUSD renews a three-week high around 0.6500 after the RBNZ confirmed the widely anticipated 0.50% rate hike. The upside momentum takes clues from the early-week break out of a downward sloping trend line from the April peak and the 20-DMA, around 0.6385-80. Also keeping the bulls hopeful is the RSI (14) conditions, firmer but not overbought. That said, a horizontal area comprising levels marked since late January, around 0.6540, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. In a case where the quote rises past 0.6540, the upward trajectory towards the 50-DMA level surrounding 0.6660 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a downside break of 0.6380 could direct NZDUSD sellers towards 0.6290-85 intermediate support ahead of highlighting the monthly low of 0.6210 on the bear’s radar. Overall, NZDUSD buyers are ready for further upside but multiple levels stand tall to test the north-run.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD braces for a bull-run ahead of next week’s RBNZFirmer RBNZ Inflation Expectations for Q4 propels NZDUSD towards confirming falling wedge bullish formation, extending run-up towards the 200-SMA level of 0.7070 by the press time of early Thursday. It should be noted, though, that the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September-October upside, near 0.7085, adds to the upside filter and may probe the bulls before directing them to the monthly peak surrounding 0.7200. In doing so, the RBNZ’s rate hike will be crucial to watch. Meanwhile, failures to keep the wedge breakout could drag the quote back to 61.8% Fibo. level near the 0.7000 threshold. Following that, a six-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6980 and the wedge’s support line close to 0.6970 will test the NZDUSD bears before directing them to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and September’s bottom, respectively near 0.6930 and 0.6860. To sum up, NZDUSD flag bullish bias before the key RBNZ interest rate decision.
Long
by MTradingGlobal