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Swing Trading Opportunities for the week beginning 6-12-21SWING TRADING WATCHLIST FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 6-12-21 INTENT I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan. Some readers feel that I am simply listing down several scrips so that if they go up I can claim so. This is not the case - I am not here to score any points. I am sharing my weekly analysis and if you like it, read it and if you do not agree, I am fine with that. ON MY WATCHLIST FOR THE COMING WEEK This week, I have changed the format to some extent and I request you to let me know if you like this approach to finding Swing Trading Opportunities or the one that I was following till last weekend. CAUTION - On account of the Omnicron scare, the markets would remain volatile so please be very careful while finding and initiating the trades. Risk management is the key to survive in such markets. This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. And from this week, I have also filtered the sectors based on Monthly candles. Here are the likely candidates for the week - SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG / SHORT POSITIONS- In case the sectors break the current RSI and Support levels, these could become good candidates for taking short positions. Please keep your mind open accordingly. If you are not using the Futures & Options instruments, please focus only on the Long or Buy trades only. We should only focus on what works for us and not follow anyone blindly. Considering the Monthly Charts, the following sectors look good: Auto Bank Nifty CPSE Financial Services FMCG Media PSE Considering the Weekly Charts, the following sectors look good: Auto CPSE Infra IT Media PSU Banks Realty Services If you look at the sectoral indices on the daily charts, all of them look beaten down and you would not like to trade them. This is precisely the message for a short term trader - these could be good short sell candidates, but not for Swing or Positional candidates. WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS - Nifty Spot at 17006 Adani Ports BPCL Coal India Infosys Nestle TCS UPL Bosch HPL Alembic Pharma Bayer Crop Idea Nazara Sun TV The market is at an indecisive phase and the FIIs keep selling despite good global cues as well. Keeping this in mind, I have reduced my coverage of Swing Trading Opportunities to mainly Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty stocks and have included some of my holdings that are available at a good risk reward ratio. During the week, I already have many scrips in small quantities as these have been beaten down from their ATHs or Swing High. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded. I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so. In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn. Here is the Video Link: Thank you for your time and Happy Learning, 4-12--21 Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Indices press Control Z, reverse gains made yesterday,NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 03-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17424.90 H 17489.80 L 17180.80 C 17196.70 EOD -204.95 points / +1.37% India VIX 18.45/+2.05% SGX Nifty 03-12-21 @ 1820h = +19 points FII DII = Not yet available CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a minor gap up and exactly hit one of the earlier intraday resistance levels and then never looked back. It tried to consolidate between 17350-400 but failed and soon after noon, the steady sell-off started which never ended until the markets closed. FTSE opened with a good gap up but later that also caved in so Nifty did not have to do any brain work as it was already drifting. Despite the apparent bearishness, Nifty has made a higher high and a higher low. However, Bank Nifty could not hold on to the low of yesterday and almost came close to 36000. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 9 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 103 Net = -94 BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 3 Lifters contributed = 8 Top 3 Draggers contributed = 262 Net = -254 POSITIVES It is very hard to find any positive today especially after an impressive performance given yesterday. The consoling aspects were – Bank Nifty did not breach 36000. Nifty managed to hold on to the levels above the close of 1 Dec - 17166. NEGATIVES From an impressive start by Bank Nifty in particular to a miserable showdown by almost 800 points, the Indices have undone all the efforts of the bulls that would have been done yesterday. Reliance, HDFC twins, ICICI Bank, and Kotak Bank were hammered and used as the tools to drag the indices from a situation of hitting 17500 on Nifty and 37000 in the case of Bank Nifty. TRADING RANGE FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 06 Dec 21 Nifty Support = 17000-17200 Nifty Resistance = 17250-300-350-400 Bank Nifty Support = 35800-36000 Bank Nifty Resistance = 36400-600-800-37000 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS In my view, the market moves for the day were such that it completely ignored the fact that 2 Dec was a trading day. Here is my tweet on the same: Today I traded 36500 PE + CE and yesterday I also traded these two. What I observed was that overnight there was a decay of 40 points when these were ATM CE / PE today. In fact today, in the opening few minutes Bank Nifty shot up and yet there was the decay once it retraced to 36500. This is the reason why Option Writers may be making money as the India Vix was also down in the morning. Yesterday’s Top 5 Lifters & Draggers contributed +95 points. Today, they contributed -95! This is quite an interesting situation and confirms that in the end, Nifty did not go anywhere over the last 2 sessions. Bank Nifty was down 311 points and 262 of these were contributed by Kotak Bank, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank. This is the power of the three big heads of Bank Nifty. What do you feel about this? Here is the video link -- Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 3-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Indices end in good green despite ups and downsNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 01-12-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17104.40 H 17213.05 L 17064.25 C 17166.90 EOD +183.70 points / +1.08% India VIX 19.45/-8.12% SGX Nifty 01-12-21 @ 17455h = +9 points FII DII = Not yet available CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a 100+ points gap-up and it was able to sustain the momentum for the first few minutes and then the usual sell-off kicked-in. However, this time the downfall halted just around the open price and then Nifty managed to cross 17200 in a sustained manner. However, as witnessed yesterday, the 17200+ levels offered a solid resistance and the Nifty yet again fell 100+ points and made a new low at 17064. This was immediately bought in to and then Nifty made a choppy recovery but failed to end above 17200. On the daily charts, Nifty has left behind a gap as it was able to sustain the levels above 17050. Both the indices have made a higher low, but lower highs. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 95 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 18 Net = +77 POSITIVES OHLC of Nifty is above 17050. Nifty ended above 17150. Bank Nifty made a strong recovery today and appeared stronger than Nifty and managed to close above 36300. All Bank Nifty family members except Kotak Bank ended the day in the green. India Vix has fallen 8%+. Reliance, ICICI Bank, and HDFC have recovered from the selling spree and if HDFC Bank also recovers and steadies above 1530, it would add to the positivity. NEGATIVES Infosys, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Bank have not been able to end with strong positivity. As long as these scrips do not end in a good amount of green, the Indices may keep facing resistances and selling pressure. 17200 on Nifty and 36450 on Bank Nifty are hard to cross - this is despite the overall sentiment being positive. TRADING RANGE FOR 02 Dec 21 Nifty Support = 16700-800 Nifty Resistance = 17200 and above until 17500 is taken out on a closing basis. Bank Nifty Support = 35500-700 Bank Nifty Resistance = 36400-600-800-37000 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS The indices have left behind a gap that has not yet been filled between the close of 30-11 and today. Considering that the market is still weak, this may well get filled soon and it is better if it does so as then only the remainder of the weakness would go away. The global markets and therefore India seems to have discounted the impacts of Omicron and that is why Divis Labs and Cipla feature as the draggers of Nifty. FIIs may have bought today but the ferocity in the moves and the wide range was missing and most of the gains have been recorded on account of the gap up in the Indices. The range of the indices was not that wide as India Vix has fallen significantly. The 1330h candle in Bank Nifty on 5 minutes chart was unnerving - I was holding 35900 CE and it shook me out while exiting the long and as it abruptly recovered, my reentry in the same CE was out by 30 points - such fast were the moves. This despite India Vix being down. This was possibly the algo at play to wipe out basket orders or to execute and settle the basket orders. We may never know until we become witness to such large moves. EVen though India Vix has fallen significantly, the market was quite choppy especially Nifty as it kept going up and down. I do not understand how this could happen but not everything should be reasoned out. Let it do what it is supposed to do. What do you feel about this? Here is the video link -- Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 1-12-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
It seems Bulls & Bears are confused - seeking mentoring help!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 30-11-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17051.15 H 17324.65 L 16931.40 C 16983.20 EOD +27.60 points / +0.16% India VIX 21.17 SGX Nifty 29-11-21 @ 1905h = +23 points FII DII = -95 Crores CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened almost with O=L and then rallied 250+ points as if it was a real bull market beating all the expectations. And then came the unexpected fall of 300+ points. It took support from just below 17000 and then made an attempt to test 17200 and that failed miserably as it fell again 250+ points taking FTSE as the cue. With this, it erased all the gains made during the day and many scrips have been hammered - the candles of all leading scrips also confirm the same if one looks at the daily chart. On the daily charts, today’s candle appears almost the reverse of 29-11, yesterday. Even though Nifty ended below 17000, it has made a higher high and a higher low. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 67 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 99 Net = -32 POSITIVES Infosys and TCS have helped Nifty stay in some sort of balance. They have been ably helped by the Bajaj twins who have now formed the habit of being the lifters or the draggers. The opening hour play indicates that there is strong buying support available around the 17000-17050 area. This could prove to be crucial. NEGATIVES Reliance and HDFC were manly responsible for the negativity and that then spread on to the other leaders. Kotak Bank a lifter yesterday and made a U-turn today and is a dragger today. This is indeed confusing. Bank Nifty failed to close above 36000 and Nifty failed to close above 17000. TRADING RANGE FOR 01 Dec 21 Nifty Support = 16500-16700 Nifty Resistance = 17100 and above until 17500 is taken out on a closing basis. Bank Nifty Support = 35000-35200 Bank Nifty Resistance = 36000-36200-500-800 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS A strong up move in the first hour until a few minutes thereafter took Nifty past 17320 and just as it appeared that we may belatedly follow the global cues, a relentless fall of 325+ points would have trapped many traders on the wrong side. This abrupt fall could be attributable to the opportunistic statement made by the CEO Moderna stating that vaccines may not work on the new variant. Should CEOs make such untested conclusive remarks? Exactly after a quarter, Nifty ended the day below 17000. The last such close was on 30-8-21. Looks like Maths wizards are at it again! Even though the Nifty spot was going down in the last half an hour and it made a low at 16931, the Nifty Future was managed in such a way that it held the low of 17000. The more I observe, the more I find good management skills being applied here. Today FIIs have sold for more than 5000 Crores and DIIs have given a befitting response by buying in excess of 5000 Crores. Based on my tracking, such massive buying by DIIs has happened after quite a few weeks - 2 months plus. Could this be the game changer act? What do you feel about this? Here is the video link -- Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 30-11--21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Indices ignore global cues, end on a bearish noteNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 29-11-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17055.80 H 17160.70 L 16782.40 C 17053.95 EOD +27.60 points / +0.16% India VIX 20.83 SGX Nifty 29-11-21 @ 1900h = -46 points FII DII = Not yet available CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Taking strong global cues in to account, Nifty opened with a mild gap up and as usual immediately sold off as FIIs were net sellers on 26 Nov. It evinced buying interest around 16780 and made a smart recovery and hit the first resistance at 17100 and then retraced a bit and then again at 17160 and then fell yet again after being sideways for a long time. It barely managed to end above 26 Nov close by a few points as a token of respect to the global cues. Nifty has thus made a lower high and a lower low. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 65 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 30 Net = +35 POSITIVES Nifty managed to close in green is the first positive. Some of the leading scrips - Reliance, HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, TCS, and Bajaj Finance were the leaders today. This is a good mix of Reliance, Banking & Finance, and IT. Bank Nifty bounced back up from its 200 DMA which is a good sign even though it ended in the red. In the process, it also held above its 50 Weekly MA. NEGATIVES Bank Nifty underperformed Nifty on account selling pressure in ICICI Bank and Axis Bank. HDFC remained under selling pressure today as well. The global cues are positive and yet the indices ended this way is not a good sign. TRADING RANGE FOR 30 NOV 21 Nifty Support = 16500-16700 Nifty Resistance = 17100 and above until 17500 is taken out on closing basis. Bank Nifty Support = 35000-35200 Bank Nifty Resistance = 36000-36200-500-800 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS I find it a bit strange that a one liner from a South African medical agency stating the variant is just a sound alert and anot an alarm has made the global markets so much positive. I am neither a market maker nor a medical pro so I am confused with this one liner exactly like how the Bulls of the Indian stock markets are. Despite the global markets being positive, somehow our market participants could see what is not visible to the world as re Covid variant is concerned. A dismal EOD performance is indicative of the underlying bearish tone of the markets. Nifty could end in the green only because of Reliance as its contribution is 21 points. This also explains what may happen tomorrow if our Indices choose to ignore the global cues tomorrow as well. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-11--21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
There goes the Bull Market - Bye for now!NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 26-11-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17338.75 H 17355.40 L 16985.70 C 17026.45 EOD -509.80 points /-2.91% Today, I must include India VIX which was up by a whopping 24.85% and ended at 20.80 SGX Nifty 26-11-21 @ 1900h = -24 points FII DII = Not yet available CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened with a strong gap down and made an opening high and then never made any attempt to retest it as it kept falling relentlessly. Nifty tried to clear 17210-215 levels between 1100-1330h but failed to do so and then simply fell like a pack of cards. Nifty briefly breached 17000 levels and Bank Nifty also briefly breached 36000 levels. Both the indices have for now changed the trend completely as they have fallen significantly from their respective ATHs and we will have to see how the next few days play out. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 20 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 201 Net = -181 POSITIVES Nifty ended above 17000 and Bank Nifty ended above 36000 and these were the only consolidations for the day. Pharma shot up, possibly sensing emerging opportunities as the world renewed its focus on the virus variant. NEGATIVES In the last 2 months , Nifty has not fallen so much like what it did today. However, Bank Nifty made such moves earlier in this 2 month period. The sentiment was negative all over and there was no respite from it. The Advances were only 1/4th than that of the declines which indicates the severity of the sentiment. TRADING RANGE FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 29 NOV 21 Today’s price action was such that I will respect the same and not venture into stating the Supports and Resistances for the 2 major indices. We will have to wait for the India VIX to cool down significantly before the levels could be stated with conviction. Let us see how the price action is for the next 2-3 days and then maybe we will get some idea to draw these lines. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS I thought looking at today’s price action, the heading is apt. I am not sure how long the Covid related fear would be around. Even though India is better placed than Europe for now, our markets are still not strong enough to move the world on its own and hence, depend on the global cues. I started tracking EOD Analysis for the last 3 months and I am unable to find levels below 17000 for Nifty and below 36000 for Bank Nifty in this period. So much was the strength and it has almost been extinguished for now. The downfall was severe in scrips that were hammered during the lockdown and Covid era, This was possibly more on account of fear than reality as the Indian Govt is yet to announce any caution in this regard. It is a strange coincidence that today the Govt has decided to recommence scheduled international air travel from 14 Dec 21 - a day when the market feared the most taking cues from the global counterparts. When FIIs sell, DIIs usually start buying in the post lunch session. Today, there was no such evidence indicating that even the DIIs are also unsure about what could be the extent of the fall. So the buying may have come from the retail to a large extent. Social media is abuzz about the Black Friday sale on the stock market. They are simply using the term. The fact is that it is a Red Friday as the indices have fallen sharply and there was a bloodbath in the real sense of the word. Will 26 Nov 21 be the game changer day for the Indian markets? What do you feel about this? Here is the video link -- Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 26-11--21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Reliance helps Nifty end Nov series above 17500NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 25-11-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17417.30 H 17564.35 L 17351.70 C 17536.25 EOD 121.20 points /+0.70% SGX Nifty 25-11-21 @ 1840h = +40 points FII DII = Not yet available CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart Nifty opened flat and then sold off to retest the lows of 24 Nov around 17350. Like yesterday, it was able to generate a good amount of buying interest and then fueled by Reliance, it was able to sustain higher levels with greater ease. Clearly, Bank Nifty underperformed. However, Nifty has made a lower low and a lower high and yet managed to close in the green. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 154 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 36 Net = +118 POSITIVES Nifty ended the Nov series above 17500. Reliance single handedly changed the game for Nifty. It would be improper to give credit to any other scrip today. Infosys managed to close well above 1700. NEGATIVES Nifty retested the low of 24 Nov around 17350. Bank Nifty is struggling and is unable to generate sustained buying interest. All other leading scrips of both the indices lack momentum. HDFC ended yet again below 2900. HUL has been consistently having issues in getting investors attracted as it keeps drifting on the way down. TRADING RANGE FOR 26 November 2021 Nifty Support 17300-350. Nifty Resistance 17600 and above. Bank Nifty support = 36800-37000. Bank Nifty resistance = 37500-700-38000 INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS Here are the links to 2 of my tweets related to how markets were today: Nifty was up by 121 points and the net contribution by the Top 5 Lifters & Draggers is 118. Data is becoming very crucial in managing the indices. Have a look at the close of 24 Nov and today’s open - barely 2 points difference. All eyes are now on the Reliance counterpart in the Bank Nifty family - HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. The day these two wake up, is the day when Bank Nifty is likely to outperform. The big question is when? What do you feel about this? Here is the video link -- Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 25-11--21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Reliance: Chart set up & medium term viewReliance The stock is currently near Support zone On the upside in the short term it may find resistance around 2512 odd levels Till the time the 2nd line of Support is held on to the overall set up for medium term looks good Target for medium term 2720 / 3200 Take care & safe trading... Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:RELIANCE
by indiamarketoutlook
5