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Retracements

MCX GOLD - Profit Booking on Cards?MCX Gold has rallied one way from 62000 to 66000 in last 8 days without any major retracements. This sharp up move can not sustain without a good retracement. Dollar Index is also trading at a major support zone of 102.500 so there's very high chance that we might see a correction very soon. Here's a trading opportunity. GOLD CMP - 65950 I'm taking short position in Gold April Future at CMP 65935. Will add more position if 66100 comes. Holding with Stoploss 66300. I'm expecting minimum 1000 point correction in Gold very soon. Gold 65000 PE is currently trading at 345. I'm taking some position in it too. I'm expecting it to get double by next week. Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!
MCX:GOLD1!Short
by akshit_official
10
UPL analysis - Probability & PossibilitiesLets have a look at the analysis --> 1. EW analysis --> Considering the top at 695.75 as end of wave 3 and now we might be in 4th corrective wave. Currently, we might be in z of wxyxz of 4 as c might have been completed today. 2. Classical TA --> a. major resistance at 663 levels b. 78.6% fib retracement at same levels. c. kumo cloud support at the same levels. d. wave c 61.8% fib extention at same levels. e. support at 642 levels 3.Putting it all together --> The current structure looks it might give breakdown to the channel, but it hasn't made a good reversal confirmation for downside. The resistance at 663 levels is the only support to backup the bearish point of view along w/ the EW. Candlestick ain't supporting bearish side for now. If holds below 663 we might see 642/25/18 levels. Lets see where it may go wrong, suppose if wave c of x have not yet completed then it might make another high at 665/667 levels and again fall towards 642/25/18. Any what if the 4th wave has ended at 555.35 that is y of wxy? Well, then say good buy to reversal, it might break the major resistance and go beyond. And from bearish point of view, you would not like to deal that. Regards, Sharma Yogesh
NSE:UPL
by yogi_sharma_elliottician
GANN, ELLIOT and THE TOPPING PATTERNSI always love to trade such a chart but on 5 min. time frame :) Not possible ?? Yes, its possible.. but we will discuss on this topic later in some other post. CORRECTIONS and the ELLIOT COUNT: In this chart I can see three major correction. Each one having a different topping pattern. The first correction has a Rising Wedge; the second has Triple Top and the third one has Gramophone pattern at the top. The first correction eroded more than 61.8% of the last bull market. I consider this as the major correction. There was a nice base building near 2253 level, I call this as Base 1 or the end of Major corrective Wave 2. So Base 1 is now the Zero point of the Major Wave 3 strating @ 2253. The Second and third corrections (I-II and III-IV) were nearly 38.2% and 50% resp. of their last bull moves. I call these as intermediate corrections inside the Major Wave 3. I call end of Wave II as Base 2 @ 4531 and end of Wave IV as Base III at 6826 According to this count we are currently in Wave V of Major Wave 3. GANN: the Projection Factory Gann saw the price moves in 1/8's. According to him these areas can act as important S/R levels. I am using this hypothesis but in opposite direction, that is to project the price from the base. For convenience and on the basis of the Nifty harmonics I am marking only two of these levels -- the Quad and the Octave. The Quad level projection from Base 1 comes at 6204. Market made a Triple Top Pattern near 6338 and entered in to an intermediate bear phase which corrected more than 38.2% of the move from Base 1. Notice that this Quad also coincided with the top of last bull market. The Quad projection from Base 2 comes at 8926. The Gramophone pattern shown in the chart ended at 9119 followed by an intermediate bear phase which corrected 50% of the move from Base 2. Currently we are near the Octave end of the Base 1 at 10155. Which theoretically suggests that because a full Octave completes near this level, it should be followed by a "major" correction. I would like to assert here that so far there are two beautiful evidence of strong market vibrations near Quads, I don't have any evidence of market vibrations at the octaves on this daily chart. So the market reaction near current Base 1 Octave will only add to my experience. Due to aforementioned reason, I am left to rely upon the Elliot market structure and the price action. Both of them suggest that the next intermediate correction, set aside the major correction, on this chart may not be a possibility in the near term. However a short term correction may follow up to 9000 to 9100. Future Projections Gann projections from 6826 (Base 3) should give target for Elliot Wave V. Now you must be curious about the level..aren't you? Ok, the Level is 16000..Surprised? me too. But this level may take some years to get achieved. In between we may have corrections, which will look like minor/short term corrections on this chart but may erode 50% of their respective last short term up moves. Personal Views: On a personal note, I am not happy with Base 3. In Base 1 and 2 we had more than 61.8% correction from the top of automatic rallies from the Base points, which I may easily label as retest attempts. In Base 3, it corrected only 50% and base formation was very quick. These factors project the Gann target too high for Wave V. > I think a short term top is in the making > Short term correction may take the index to 9100 to 9000 > I would still stick to my July 18 post NIFTY ANALYSIS for Wave V projections. > Readers can have their own differing opinions, which I always respect. Hit Like/ Comment if you find this post useful. Trade safe, be healthy. Regards Bravetotrade
NSE:NIFTY
by Bravetotrade
31