CORRECTIONS and the COUNT:
In this chart I can see three major correction. Each one having a different topping pattern. The first correction has a ; the second has Triple Top and the third one has Gramophone pattern at the top.
The first correction eroded more than 61.8% of the last bull market. I consider this as the major correction. There was a nice base building near 2253 level, I call this as Base 1 or the end of Major corrective Wave 2.
So Base 1 is now the Zero point of the Major Wave 3 strating @ 2253.
The Second and third corrections (I-II and III-IV) were nearly 38.2% and 50% resp. of their last bull moves. I call these as intermediate corrections inside the Major Wave 3.
I call end of Wave II as Base 2 @ 4531 and end of Wave IV as Base III at 6826
According to this count we are currently in Wave V of Major Wave 3.
GANN: the Projection Factory
saw the price moves in 1/8's. According to him these areas can act as important S/R levels.
I am using this hypothesis but in opposite direction, that is to project the price from the base.
For convenience and on the basis of the Nifty harmonics I am marking only two of these levels -- the Quad and the Octave.
The Quad level projection from Base 1 comes at 6204. Market made a Triple Top Pattern near 6338 and entered in to an intermediate bear phase which corrected more than 38.2% of the move from Base 1. Notice that this Quad also coincided with the top of last bull market.
The Quad projection from Base 2 comes at 8926. The Gramophone pattern shown in the chart ended at 9119 followed by an intermediate bear phase which corrected 50% of the move from Base 2.
Currently we are near the Octave end of the Base 1 at 10155. Which theoretically suggests that because a full Octave completes near this level, it should be followed by a "major" correction.
I would like to assert here that so far there are two beautiful evidence of strong market vibrations near Quads, I don't have any evidence of market vibrations at the octaves on this . So the market reaction near current Base 1 Octave will only add to my experience.
Due to aforementioned reason, I am left to rely upon the market structure and the price action. Both of them suggest that the next intermediate correction, set aside the major correction, on this chart may not be a possibility in the near term. However a short term correction may follow up to 9000 to 9100.
projections from 6826 (Base 3) should give target for V. Now you must be curious about the level..aren't you? Ok, the Level is 16000..Surprised? me too.
But this level may take some years to get achieved. In between we may have corrections, which will look like minor/short term corrections on this chart but may erode 50% of their respective last short term up moves.
On a personal note, I am not happy with Base 3. In Base 1 and 2 we had more than 61.8% correction from the top of automatic rallies from the Base points, which I may easily label as retest attempts. In Base 3, it corrected only 50% and base formation was very quick. These factors project the target too high for Wave V.
> I think a short term top is in the making
> Short term correction may take the index to 9100 to 9000
> I would still stick to my July 18 post NIFTY ANALYSIS for Wave V projections.
> Readers can have their own differing opinions, which I always respect.
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Trade safe, be healthy.