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Rising Wedge

Real Success Rates of the "Rising Wedge" in TradingReal Success Rates of the Rising Wedge in Trading Introduction The rising wedge, also known as the "rising wedge" in English, is a chart pattern that has a remarkable success rate in trading. This analysis details its performance, reliability and complementary indicators to optimize its use. Success Rate and Performance -Key Statistics Overall success rate: 81% in bull markets Average potential profit: 38% in an existing uptrend -Breakout Direction Bearish: 60% of cases Bullish: 40% of cases Contextual Reliability Bull market: 81% success, average gain of 38% After a downtrend: 51% success, average decline of 9% Important Considerations The rising wedge is generally a bearish pattern, indicating a potential reversal. Reliability increases with the duration of the pattern formation. Confirmation of the breakout by other indicators, especially volume, is crucial. Complementary Indicators -Volume Gradual decrease during formation Significant increase during breakout -Oscillators RSI (Relative Strength Index): Identifies overbought/oversold conditions Stochastics: Detects price/indicator divergences -Moving Averages Crossovers: Signal trend changes -Dynamic Support/Resistance: Confirm the validity of the wedge -Momentum Indicators MACD: Identifies price/indicator divergences Momentum: Assesses the exhaustion of the trend -Other Elements Fibonacci Levels: Identify potential support/resistance Japanese Candlestick Analysis: Provides indications of reversals Conclusion The rising wedge is a powerful tool for traders, offering a high success rate and significant profit potential. The combined use of complementary indicators increases the reliability of the signal and improves the accuracy of trading decisions. It is essential to look for a convergence of signals from multiple sources to minimize false signals and optimize trading performance. _______________________________________________ Here are the best times to enter a trade after a rising wedge, in a professional manner: -The confirmed breakout Wait for the candle to close below the support line of the wedge. Look for a significant increase in volume during the breakout to confirm its validity. -The retest Look for a pullback on the broken support line, which has become resistance. Enter when the price rebounds downward on this new resistance, confirming the downtrend. -The post-breakout consolidation Identify the formation of a flag or pennant after the initial breakout. Enter when this mini-formation breaks in the direction of the main downtrend. -The confirmed divergences Spot bearish divergences on oscillators such as the RSI or the MACD. Enter when price confirms divergence by breaking a nearby support. -Timing with Japanese Candlesticks Identify bearish formations such as the Evening Star, Bearish Harami, or Dark Cloud. Enter as soon as the next candle confirms the bearish pattern. -Important Considerations Always place a stop-loss to manage risk effectively. Be patient and wait for the setup to be confirmed before entering the trade Check the trend on higher timeframes to ensure the consistency of the trade. Integrate the analysis of the rising wedge with other technical indicators to improve the quality of decisions. By following these recommendations, traders can optimize their entries on rising wedges while minimizing the risk of false signals.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
AsianPaints | Wyckoff Events & Phases Explained !!Wyckoff developed a price action market theory which is still a leading principle in today's trading practice. The Wyckoff method states that the price cycle of a traded instrument consists of 4 stages – Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and MarkDown. 👉TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE Accumulation Schematic: Wyckoff Events and Phases Price Action Analysis And this is the accumulation stage - 1) PS— Preliminary Support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a continued down-move. - Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end. 2) SC—Selling Climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually in high point and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. - Often price will close well off the low in an SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests. 3) AR—Automatic Rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly decline. - A wave of buying easily pushes prices up. - The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation. 4) ST—Secondary Test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand. - If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be decline as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. - It is common to have multiple STs after an SC. 5) SOS—Sign Of Strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. 6) LPS—Last Point Of Support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after an SOS. 7) BU/LPS- Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistant, on diminished spread and volume. All the phases of accumulation stage- Phase A: Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. -- Up to this point, supply has been dominant. -- The approaching cutback of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC). -- A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC. -- If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation. -- Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above. Phase B: -- Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend -- In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. --There are usually multiple STs during Phase B' -- Institutional buying and selling impart the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range. --Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume. Phase C: -- It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a final test of the remaining supply. -- this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears). -- It indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position. -- The appearance of an SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis. Phase D: --During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top --LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions. Phase E: --large operators can occur at any point in Phase E. --These are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets. -------------------------------------------------- Regards, Revive Traders ------------------------------------------------ Guys check out the related POST as well, it went FANTASTIC ! 🙏FOLLOW for more ! 👍LIKE if U find it useful ! ✍COMMENT your views & feedback !
NSE:ASIANPAINTLong
by ReviveTraders
1
BankNifty ( Elliott Wave) - Will 51700+ Be The Short Term TopDisclaimer: This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Please consult your financial advisor. Explore the latest Bank Nifty analysis with WaveTalks. Will 51700+ be the short-term top? Discover insights and potential market moves as we decode the whispers of the market. Stay informed with WaveTalks - Market Whispers! Let's Jump In ... As discussed in the last idea published on 29th August, it was suggested that holding the 50938 / 50939 critical level, Index can make new highs beyond 51404 which is very much possible. The market tested traders' patience on Friday, 30th August, and continued to do so on Monday, 2nd September, and even on 3rd September, with many feeling the urge to give up. However, bulls were fortunate as a last-minute explosive move took BankNifty from 51400 to 51750—a 350-point jump towards the end of the session. Now, with U.S. markets trading in deep red, with major indices like S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all down more than 1%, the big question arises: Has the BankNifty pattern we’ve been discussing since last week finally completed? Are we about to fall below 50939, potentially slipping down to the 50300 support level? Only time will reveal the answers to these questions.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by WaveTalks
3
BankNifty - Is this An Ending Diagonal at Tops 51404WaveTalks ...Market Whispers! ...Can You Hear Them? Disclaimer: This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell. Please consult your financial advisor As discussed this morning......catching the wave 4 bottoms & watching 5 unfolding in back to back ups & downs with a minor halt at 51251 have we unfolded an ending diagonal at the tops of 51404 Wave 4 Bottoms this morning close to 51000 as discussed Wave 5 - Is this an ending diagonal unfolded at the current high of 51404 Last Idea Published - Tower Bottom Unveiled We started this wave sequence close to 49651 discussed in the last idea - Tower Bottom Pattern Regards, WaveTalks
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by WaveTalks
11
Nifty at a Glance: This Week's Market MomentumNifty Outlook: A Pivotal Week Ahead Nifty remains weak as we enter a crucial week. The index faces stiff resistance at 24,450. A close above this level could open the door to 24,725, but failure to hold it may trigger a drop. Key support lies at 24,150; breaching this could lead to a decline towards 23,850. Adding to the bearish tone, Nifty has broken down from a Rising Wedge pattern, with a potential target around 21,300. This week is critical—watch these levels closely as the market navigates this pivotal phase.
NSE:NIFTY
by Nimble_Pesos
SENCO - POST 20% CORRECTION, PA MIGHT REVERSE FRM BOTTOM CHANNELHi All, This idea is about Senco Gold Ltd The stock has corrected over 20% in this month alone & now have reached the lower channel of rising wedge formation. Volumes have dried up indicating the supply may have exhausted & Price action might soon reverse from this point Stock can be bought if it gives a closing above 980 for further targets of T1 1010, T2 1070, T3 1150. If the stock shows further downside then the support levels are S1 916, S2 864 The correction is due to poor quaterly results owing to heat wave, elections, and fewer wedding days although the sales was up 9% YoY Fundamentals Market Cap ₹ 7,398 Cr. Current Price ₹ 952 High / Low ₹ 1,177 / 365 Stock P/E 39.2 Book Value ₹ 177 Dividend Yield 0.11 % ROCE 13.4 % ROE 16.2 % Face Value ₹ 10.0 Equity capital ₹ 77.7 Cr. No. Eq. Shares 7.77 EPS ₹ 24.3 Promoter holding 68.4 % Change in Prom Hold -0.01 % Chg in Prom Hold 3Yr % Pledged percentage 0.00 % Market Cap to Sales 1.41 Sales growth 28.3 % PEG Ratio 1.92 EVEBITDA 20.3 Quick ratio 0.40 Trade receivables ₹ 64.4 Cr. Sales ₹ 5,230 Cr. Debt to equity 1.28 Price to book value 5.37 Free Cash Flow ₹ -324 Cr. CMP / FCF -42.4 Happy Trading, Thanks, Stock-n-Shine
NSE:SENCO
by Stock-n-Shine
Nifty Reaches 24,500 Target: Elliott Wave Analysis Disclaimer: ------------------------ Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell. WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them? ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- General Election 2024: Impact on Nifty The 2024 General Election resulted in a clear victory for the existing NDA government, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi securing a third term. This political stability had a positive impact on the Indian market index, Nifty. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pre-Exit Poll Movement Before the election results were declared, we proposed an outlook for Nifty to reach 24,500 as a pre-exit poll objective. This prediction was published on TradingView as "Pre-Exit Poll Outlook - Bulls above 22,400 " on 31st May 2024. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Achievement of Target Following the election results, Nifty saw a significant rise from the lows of 21,281 on June 4, 2024, and successfully reached our proposed target of 24,500 on July 12, 2024. However, there was a knee-jerk reaction as the index failed to surpass the 400-seat mark announced during the election campaigns, leading to some volatility when the actual results were declared on June 4, 2024. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unfolding Structure: The Leading Diagonal Since early March 2024, we have been discussing the potential for an explosive upside based on a leading diagonal pattern, also known as a Rising Wedge in traditional analysis. This Elliott wave pattern typically indicates a bullish trend, especially in the context of the 2024 General Election. We believed in the bullish scenario and termed it the "Leading Diagonal," expecting significant market movement. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Why I Believe in Wave Analysis As a Wave Analyst, my journey began with a curiosity about the market's patterns and behaviors. Eight years ago, in 2016, I started writing for TradingView and was given an opportunity to look into India Business for the brand during its early expansion years in India. On a personal front, I progressed to learn the nuances of wave analysis and started applying them to publicly traded liquid financial instruments. The results were astounding, providing 90-100% accuracy in the analysis. The science behind wave analysis is robust, but it does come with the limitation of alternate views if the price breaches the cardinal rules. More details on this will be discussed in my upcoming book on wave analysis (no ETA available at the moment). ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Pattern Analysis Rising Wedge: Often seen as bearish or bullish from a traditional technical analysis point of view, Elliott Wave analysis goes one step further by identifying the pattern's nature as bullish or bearish and can complement the unfolding events. General Election 2024: The election acted as a catalyst for the bullish trend. Patience Rewarded: Participants who held their positions since October 2023 are now reaping the benefits. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Future Outlook Key Psychological Level: 24,500 Nifty holding above the 24,500 level is crucial. If the index continues to bounce above this level, we anticipate the bull run to persist. Target: 27,620 Our next target is 27,620, where the current rising wedge in Wave-1 should travel 162% of the minimum distance if this is to be Wave-3. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Additional Insights Reliance Long Term: Nifty Explosive Series Episodes Starting Comex Copper: These episodes as published on TradingView earlier, hinted at an explosive Nifty to unfold and how Dr. Copper’s move supported the outlook. This should be discussed as a different branch of technical analysis called Intermarket relations in my book, suggesting a strong bullish sentiment. In conclusion, the political stability from the 2024 General Election has propelled Nifty into a strong bullish trend, with a key psychological level at 24,500 and a future target of 27,620. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Regards From WaveTalks Abhishek
NSE:NIFTYLong
by WaveTalks
3
SUNDARAM FINANCE - RISING WEDGE SINCE AN YR Hi All, This idea is about Sundaram Finance Holding Fundamentals Market Cap - 6k Cr Mkt Cap/Sales - 20.9 ROE - 12% P/BV - 1.27 Div Yield - 2.81% Technicals Price action has been in a rising wedge pattern since Jul 23 & currently consolidating at the bottom of channel for past few days. It can give a upmove of nearly 25% in very short term. Traders can take positional trades to capture the move. There is a small resistance for which traders need to be careful. Price reverted twice from that level SL will be lower channel breach Hope for a successful trade, Thanks, Stock-n-Shine
NSE:SUNDARMHLDLong
by Stock-n-Shine
Great Shorting opportunity in ABBABB is around the Long Term Resistance ABB is up almost 1200% in last 4 years ! Which is very extraordinary. If we analyse Monthly timeframe analysis then we can clearly see Stock is around the long term channel Resistance. Resistance is coming around 9200-9300 Also to confirm the same resistance, on a Daily timeframe we can see Rising channel which is seems working and stock is around the resistance. Right now stock is around 9200-9100 and if stock falls from the highs then we can expect stock to come around 7200-7300 Thank you !! Disclaimer : We are not SEBI registered analyst. Do your own research before taking any investment decision.
NSE:ABBShort
by FiveCircles
Nifty - Pre Exit Poll Outlook: Bulls Above 22,400 Disclaimer: Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell. WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key Levels to Watch: - Immediate Resistance: 23,000 What Unfolded Last Week: The index retraced 600 points, making a low of 22,417 as expected pause below 23000 in the last idea. Last Idea - Nifty Explosive (Part 3): From 22,000 to 23,000 in Record Time! Future Expectations: If Nifty surpasses the 23,000 mark, it will confirm that the bulls are in charge, reflecting the market optimism seen since early 2014. Nifty has strong support in the 22,400-22,500 zone. Holding above this zone, we expect an upward move towards the 22,775-22,825 target zone. If it holds above 22,825, it can target 23,000. Beyond 23,000, bulls will take charge, potentially driving the index to 23,500 and later 24,500. Note: Strictly no trades below 22,400. From WaveTalks Abhishek
NSE:NIFTY
by WaveTalks
17
Nifty Explosive (Part 3): From 22,000 to 23,000 in Record Time! Disclaimer: Trading in financial markets involves substantial risks. Consult your financial advisor before making decisions. This commentary is not a solicitation to buy or sell. WaveTalks - Market Whispers: Can you hear them? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nifty Index Outlook - May 24, 2024 Overview In our last analysis, we emphasized the importance of having both a primary plan (Plan A) and an alternative plan (Plan B). This approach prepares us for achieving similar outcomes through different routes. If Plan A fails, we quickly switch to Plan B. A strong alignment between both plans often predicts significant market movements. Recent Market Movements In our last discussion on the Nifty Index in the "Nifty: Explosive Part 2 - Towards 23,000+" series, we predicted a rally if the Nifty crossed the 22,000 mark. Indeed, Nifty surged nearly 1,000 points in just 10 days, closely aligning with our predictions and nearly touching the 23,000 mark. Last Idea - Nifty : Explosive Part 2 - Towards 23000+ Current Market Outlook Key Levels to Watch: - Immediate Resistance: 23,000 If Nifty surpasses the 23,000 mark, it will confirm that the bulls are in charge, echoing the market optimism that began in early 2014, a period that marked a significant turning point after years of struggle. Future Expectations Looking ahead, the next crucial juncture is whether Nifty can sustain its momentum above the 23,000 level or if it will face resistance. Surpassing 23,000 would be an extremely powerful signal, indicating readiness for a significant breakthrough before the 2024 General Election results are announced. Facing resistance below 23000 mark, a pause & bulls come back before election results are out on 4th June 2024. Conclusion The Nifty Index's performance has closely aligned with our previous analyses, demonstrating strong potential to surpass the 23,000 level. As the market approaches this critical threshold, our dual-plan strategy continues to guide our expectations and strategic decisions, ensuring we're well-prepared for various market scenarios. From WaveTalks Abhishek
NSE:NIFTY
by WaveTalks
4