Gold prints bearish triangle as the dull week approaches its endDespite bracing for the second consecutive weekly gain, the Gold buyers appear running out of steam as the metal stays within a three-week-old bearish triangle, recently bouncing off the chart pattern’s bottom line. The latest recovery may initially gain momentum on breaking the weekly resistance line, around $1,965 by the press time, which in turn can challenge the 200-EMA surrounding $1,973. However, the XAUUSD buyers remain off the table unless witnessing a clear upside break of the stated triangle’s top line, close to $1,982 by the press time.
Meanwhile, Gold sellers can retake control on witnessing a clear downside break of the stated triangle’s bottom line, around $1,942 at the latest. Following that, the yearly low of near $1,932 may act as an extra check towards the south before dragging the quote towards the theoretical target of the triangle break, which is $1,888. However, multiple supports near $1,910 and the $1,900 threshold could challenge the bullion bears on their ruling.
Overall, Gold portrays bearish consolidation by the end of the unimpressive week. Though the next one is all-important as it comprises monetary policy meetings of the Fed and ECB.
Riskreward
USDJPY retreat appears doubtful beyond 137.30USDJPY remains on the way to posting the second consecutive weekly loss after reversing from the yearly top in the last week. In doing so, the Yen pair justifies the overbought RSI (14) line. However, a six-month-old horizontal support zone near 137.90-85 and the 200-DMA level surrounding 137.30 appear tough nuts to crack for the sellers to retake control. Following that, a gradual south-run toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its May-October 2022 upside, near 136.10 and then to the previous monthly low of around 133.50 can’t be ruled out.
On the contrary, USDJPY recovery needs validation from the yearly latest peak of 140.95, as well as the 141.00 round figure, to convince buyers. It’s worth noting that the 140.00 psychological magnet caps the immediate upside of the Yen pair whereas a convergence of the one-month-old upward-sloping resistance line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, near 142.15-20, can challenge the quote’s run-up beyond 141.00. In a case where the risk-barometer pair rises past 142.20, the late October 2022 low close to 145.10 will be in the spotlight.
Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness short-term selling pressure but the trend remains bullish until the quote stays beyond 137.30.
AUDUSD bulls can keep control beyond 0.6560 on RBA DayAUDUSD struggles to defend the previous weekly rebound from the yearly low as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision. Although the Aussie central bank is likely to keep the benchmark rates unchanged after a surprise 0.25% rate hike in the last, it can follow the RBNZ’s hawkish action amid recently firmer Australian data and keep the pair buyers happy. Alternatively, an unimpressive RBA verdict needs validation from 0.6565-60 support confluence comprising a three-month-old horizontal support zone and a previous resistance line from mid-May. Following that, a quick fall toward the 0.6500 round figure can’t be ruled out. However, the yearly bottom marked the last week, around 0.6455, might challenge the pair sellers afterward.
Meanwhile, the 200-EMA hurdle of around 0.6650 restricts the short-term upside of the RBA even if the Australian central bank offers a positive surprise. Following that, the mid-May peak of around 0.6710 can lure the AUDUSD bulls. It’s worth noting, however, that the Aussie pair’s upside past 0.6710 will witness multiple hurdles around 0.6750, 0.6800 and 0.6820. In a case where the AUDUSD manages to remain firmer past 0.6820, the odds of witnessing a run-up toward the 0.7000 threshold and then to the yearly high of around 0.7160 are high.
Overall, AUDUSD is likely to remain on the front foot despite the RBA’s status quo unless it breaks the 0.6560 key support.
Mastering Risk-to-Reward Ratio: A Crucial Element in TradingTrading in financial markets involves risks, and managing them effectively is essential for success. One crucial aspect of trading is mastering the risk-to-reward ratio. By understanding this concept, traders can enhance their profitability, minimize losses, and achieve consistency in their trading results. In this article, we will explore the significance of the risk-to-reward ratio, strategies to achieve it, factors to consider, case studies, common mistakes to avoid, and tips for developing a risk management plan.
📊 Understanding Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
Definition and Calculation:
The risk-to-reward ratio is the ratio of the potential loss to the potential profit in a trade. It is calculated by dividing the distance between the entry price and stop-loss level by the distance between the entry price and take-profit level. For example, a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3 means risking $100 to potentially make $300.
📊 Importance of Risk Management 📊
Risk management is crucial in trading, and the risk-to-reward ratio is a vital component of a trader's risk management strategy. By defining this ratio before entering a trade, traders can evaluate the viability of the trade and align it with their overall trading strategy.
📊 Benefits of Mastering Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
1. Maximizing Profit Potential
By selecting trades with higher potential rewards relative to the risk taken, traders can maximize their profit potential. This approach allows for consistent profitability even if some trades result in losses.
2. Minimizing Losses
A favourable risk-to-reward ratio helps traders limit potential losses by setting appropriate stop-loss levels and adhering to them. This disciplined approach protects trading capital and enables traders to withstand market volatility.
3. Enhancing Consistency
Mastering the risk-to-reward ratio plays a vital role in achieving consistent trading results. By sticking to trades with a favourable ratio, traders can reduce the impact of emotional decision-making and foster consistency.
📊 Strategies for Achieving a Favourable Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
1. Setting Realistic Targets
Identify potential price levels where the risk-to-reward ratio is favourable and focus on trades with higher probability of success. Ensure that the potential reward justifies the risk taken.
2. Proper Position Sizing
Determine the appropriate position size based on risk tolerance and the risk-to-reward ratio of the trade. Allocating a reasonable portion of trading capital to each trade helps manage risk exposure.
3. Implementing Stop-Loss Orders
Place stop-loss orders at predetermined levels to limit potential losses if the trade moves against expectations. Adhering to the predetermined stop-loss level minimizes emotional decision-making.
4. Utilizing Trailing Stops
Trailing stops allow traders to protect profits while still allowing for potential upside. Adjust the stop-loss level as the trade moves in your favour to capture larger gains while protecting against reversals.
📊 Factors to Consider in Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
1. Market Volatility
Consider current market volatility levels and adjust risk-to-reward expectations accordingly. Higher volatility may require wider profit targets and adjusted stop-loss levels.
2. Timeframes and Trading Styles
Different timeframes and trading styles impact the risk-to-reward ratio. Day traders may target smaller profit targets relative to their stop-loss levels, while swing traders may have larger profit targets and wider stop-loss levels.
📊 Case Studies on Risk-to-Reward Ratio 📊
Example 1: Swing Trading
Consider a swing trading example where a trader identifies a stock with a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3. The trade has a stop-loss level set at 5% below the entry price and a profit target set at 15% above the entry price.
Example 2: Day Trading
In day trading, where trades are held for a short duration, a trader may aim for a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:1 or higher. By targeting favourable ratios, day traders can achieve profitability even if a significant number of trades result in losses.
📊 Common Mistakes to Avoid 📊
1. Ignoring Risk Management
Proper risk management is crucial for long-term success. Always consider the risk-to-reward ratio before entering a trade and prioritize risk management techniques.
2. Chasing High Rewards
Avoid chasing trades with unrealistic risk-to-reward ratios. Focus on identifying trades with a balanced risk-to-reward profile rather than solely pursuing high rewards.
3. Failing to Adapt
Adapt risk parameters based on changing market conditions. Regularly evaluate the risk-to-reward ratio and make necessary adjustments to align with the prevailing market environment.
📊 Developing a Risk Management Plan 📊
1. Assessing Risk Tolerance
Understand personal risk tolerance and align it with the risk-to-reward ratio of potential trades. Avoid taking excessive risks that make you uncomfortable and may lead to emotional decision-making.
2. Setting Risk Limits
Establish predefined limits for the maximum amount you are willing to risk per trade or per day. Setting risk limits protects your capital and maintains control over your trading activities.
📈 Conclusion 📈
Mastering the risk-to-reward ratio is crucial for successful trading. By understanding the concept, implementing effective risk management strategies, and consistently evaluating trades based on their risk-to-reward profiles, traders can improve their profitability and achieve consistent trading results. Remember to prioritize risk management, set realistic targets, and adapt to changing market conditions.
Your love and support keep me motivated to write consistently. Please like this Article if you find it helpful and leave your comments with any observations. Thank you for your support, likes, follows, and comments – they keep me motivated to write consistently.
Follow me on TradingView for more articles and trade setups: in.tradingview.com
Gold buyers look set to recapture $2,000 on US NFP dayGold price extends rebound from an 11-week-old horizontal support zone, as well as the 100-DMA, as it approaches the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding $1,992. Adding strength to the bullish bias is the metal’s upside break of a one-month-old descending resistance line, now support staying within the aforementioned horizontal region surrounding $1,932-40. Furthermore, the looming bull cross on the MACD and gradually rising RSI (14) line also keep the XAUUSD buyers hopeful to extend the run-up towards the immediate DMA hurdle. It’s worth observing that the $2,000 round figure acts as an extra filter towards the north. However, a clear upside break of the same could quickly propel the metal toward the $2,050 resistance area before challenging the all-time high of nearly $2,080.
On the contrary, the Gold price downside needs validation from the previously stated support zone near $1,940-32, including the 100-DMA, the previous resistance line stretched from early May and multiple levels marked since mid-March. Following that, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2022 to May 2023 upside, near $1,896, could be the next stop for the metal sellers. In a case where the XAUUSD remains bearish past $1,896, the 5% Fibonacci retracement and the yearly low marked in February, respectively near $1,845 and $1,804, quickly followed by the $1,800 round figure, will be in the spotlight.
Overall, Gold price is likely to recover but the road towards the north isn’t smooth and hinges on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.
AUDUSD remains vulnerable to testing sub-0.6400 zoneAUDUSD remains on the bear’s side after breaking the key support line in the last week. The nearly oversold RSI, however, allowed the quote to consolidate in the last few days while the bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful. Hence, the Aussie pair remains vulnerable to testing an eight-month-old horizontal support zone surrounding 0.6380 while any further downside may witness a pause before challenging the previous yearly low of around 0.6170.
Meanwhile, any corrective bounce needs validation from the previous support line of around 0.6610. Following that, AUDUSD recovery towards the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6765 can’t be ruled out. It should be noted that the monthly high of near 0.6820 and the December 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure, will act as extra filters toward the north. In a case where the AUDUSD pair remains firmer past 0.6900, a run-up towards the current yearly top of near 0.7160 can’t be ruled out.
Overall, AUDUSD remains on the way to refreshing the yearly low unless crossing the 0.6900 mark.
USDCHF teases bears on Swiss GDP day, rising wedge in focusUSDCHF fades upside momentum, after witnessing a three-week uptrend. With this, the Swiss currency pair portrays a rising wedge bearish chart formation on the four-hour chart. That said, RSI (14) line appears steady near the 50.0 level, suggesting no harm to the latest consolidation in prices. However, the bearish MACD signals suggest that the bears are gradually sneaking in. As a result, the pair bears may seek entry on breaking the stated rising wedge’s bottom line, close to the 0.9000 round figure. Following that, the 200-SMA of around 0.8950 and the yearly bottom of 0.8820 may act as extra filters towards the south before directing the pair to the theoretical target of the rising wedge around 0.8750.
On the flip side, USDCHF recovery needs validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its late March to early May downturn, close to 0.9070. However, the April 10 peak of 0.9120 may limit the short-term upside of the quote afterward. Should the bulls cross the 0.9120 hurdle, the bearish chart formation gets off the table and can allow the buyers to challenge March’s high of near 0.9440, which is also the yearly high.
Overall, USDCHF is likely to witness further downside but the bears need to conquer the 0.9000 mark to tighten the grips.
Gold sellers need acceptance below $1,928 to dominate furtherGold braces for the third consecutive weekly loss as it challenges a six-month-old bullish trend channel formation. That said, bearish MACD signals join a three-week-old descending resistance line to keep XAUUSD sellers hopeful, the nearly oversold RSI conditions and the key support near $1,928 stop bears from taking control. As a result, the metal’s further downside appears elusive unless witnessing a daily close below $1,928. Following that, a quick fall to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to May 2023 upside, near the $1,900 round figure, can’t be ruled out. However, the early March swing high of near $1,860 and March’s monthly low of $1,804, quickly followed by the $1,800 threshold, might allow bears to take a breather afterward.
Meanwhile, the Gold price recovery hinges on a clear upside break of the three-week-old bearish trend line, close to $1,962 at the latest. Should the quote manage to remain firmer past $1,962, the $2,000 psychological magnet could gain the bullion buyer’s attention. It’s worth noting that the Gold price upside past $2,000 needs validation from $2,050 and the latest all-time high surrounding $2,080 to aim for the fresh record high, which in turn highlights the previously mentioned rising channel’s top line near $2,120.
Overall, Gold is likely to decline further but needs to sustain below $1,928 to convince bears.
EURUSD portrays rising wedge bearish chart formationA gradual shrinking of EURUSD upside moves prints a six-month-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern, currently between 1.1120 and 1.0690. Recently luring the Euro bears is the downside break of the 100-DMA, around 1.0810 by the press time. With this, the pair is likely to challenge the stated wedge’s bottom line, around 1.0690, a break of which will confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical target of 0.9840. That said, the 200-SMA level of around 1.0465 can act as an intermediate halt during the likely fall.
Alternatively, a daily close beyond the 100-DMA level of around 1.0810 becomes necessary for the EURUSD buyers to return to the table. Even so, the 1.0000 psychological magnet and February’s high of around 1.1035 could prod the Euro bulls. It’s worth noting that the stated wedge’s top line, currently near 1.1120, acts as the last defense of the EURUSD bears.
Overall, EURUSD is likely to witness further downside wherein 1.0690 is the key support.
Technical Analysis: NZDUSD slumps on RBNZ, 200-DMA and 0.6130 reNZDUSD fails to justify the RBNZ’s 0.25% rate hike as it drops the most in a week after the Interest Rate Decision. The reason could be linked to the New Zealand central bank’s keeping of top rate level and the Governor’s inability to defend the hawkish move. With this, the Kiwi pair drops towards the 200-DMA support of around 0.6150. However, an upward-sloping support line from early March, close to 0.6130 by the press time, may challenge the pair sellers afterward. In a case where the NZDUSD remains bearish past 0.6130,s the yearly low marked in March around 0.6105 and the 0.6100 may act as the last force to stop the sellers.
On the contrary, a two-week-old descending resistance line near 0.6305 restricts the immediate upside of the NZDUSD pair during any recovery. Following that, the monthly high of around 0.6385 and the 0.6400 round figure may prod the Kiwi pair buyers before directing them to the yearly high of around 0.6540, printed in February.
Overall, NZDUSD is likely to decline further but the room towards the south appears limited.
AUDUSD sellers need to break 0.6600 support to retake controlAfter repeated failures to cross the 100-DMA, the AUDUSD pair again attacks an 11-week-long ascending support line, around 0.6610 at the latest. That said, bearish MACD signals and a mostly steady RSI (14) line keep the Aussie pair sellers hopeful of breaking the stated key support. Even so, a confirmation from the 0.6600 round figure, becomes necessary for the bears to battle with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of October 2022 to February 2023 upside, close to 0.6545. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 0.6545, the odds of witnessing a gradual fall towards 0.6380 and then to the yearly low of around 0.6170 can’t be ignored.
On the contrary, AUDUSD recovery remains unimpressive below the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6785. Adding strength to the stated resistance is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. That said, the 0.6710 can guard the immediate recovery of the Aussie pair. It should be noted, however, that the quote’s successful break of 0.6785 resistance confluence can propel the pair towards 0.6850 and a late 2022 peak of near 0.6895, quickly followed by the 0.6900 round figure.
Overall, AUDUSD is likely to turn bearish after closely missing the negative weekly mark in the last.
AUDUSD lures bears by poking 0.6635 supportAUDUSD remains pressured inside a two-week-old descending triangle after posting heavy losses in the last week. Also favoring the downside bias is the Aussie pair’s sustained trading below the 200-EMA, as well as bearish MACD signals. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI (14) appears mostly oversold and hence the pair’s bottom-picking around the stated triangle’s support line, close to 0.6635 at the latest, can’t be ruled out. Should the pair sellers remain in the driver’s seat past 0.6635, a fall to the monthly low of 0.6605 becomes imminent. Following that, the previous monthly bottom and the yearly trough, respectively around 0.6572 and 0.6563, may challenge the pair’s further downside before giving control to the bears.
Alternatively, AUDUSD recovery needs to defy the triangle formation by staying successfully beyond the resistance line, around 0.6650 at the latest. In that case, the 200-EMA hurdle of near 0.6700 may question the buyers before directing them to the monthly peak of near 0.6820. It should be observed that the Aussie pair’s sustained run-up beyond 0.6820 enables the bulls to aim for the 0.7000 psychological magnet, a break of which could allow buyers to target February’s highs surrounding 0.7030 and 0.7160.
Overall, AUDUSD bears are holding the reins but need validation to dominate further.
EURUSD bears need to break 1.0730 to regain commandA clear downside break of 200-SMA and a six-week-old ascending trend line allowed EURUSD bears to cheer the biggest weekly loss since September 2022, not to forget the snapping of the two-week uptrend. Although the Euro bears are well-set to revisit the previous monthly low of around 1.0790, an oversold RSI may help the sellers to take a breather. As a result, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since mid-March around 1.0740-30, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s March-April upside, becomes crucial support to watch. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0730, the odds of witnessing a fresh Year-To-Date (YTD) low, currently around 1.0480, can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, EURUSD recovery remains elusive unless the quote remains below a convergence of the 200-SMA and a one-week-long descending resistance line, close to 1.0960. Even so, the previous support line stretched from early April, near 1.1010 at the latest, may test the buyers before giving them control. Following that, the current yearly high marked in the last month around 1.1095 and the 1.1100 round figure will be in focus as a break of which could challenge the April 2022 peak of around 1.1185.
Overall, EURUSD is likely to witness further downside but the bears have multiple challenges and need back-up from the key EU data/events to retake control.
BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIESBALKRISHNA INDUSTRIES is looking good for a swing trade above levels of 2230(weekly candle breakout and retest) for targets of 2400/2600/2700 and sky is open above all time highs for bigger targets , a series of higher lows showing buyers coming and need a breakout above 2230 for a possible trend change towards upside , RR looks favourable
Gold sellers eye consecutive third weekly loss, $1,935 in focusRepeated attempts to mark a downside break of the HKEX:1 ,980-79 support confluence comprising a fortnight-old symmetrical triangle, as well as the 200-SMA, keep Gold bears hopeful of posting a third weekly loss in a row. However, a six-week-long horizontal support zone around HKEX:1 ,935 appears a tough nut to crack for the XAUUSD sellers, especially amid the downbeat RSI (14) line. Should the metal prices remain weak past HKEX:1 ,935, the HKEX:1 ,900 round figure and the mid-March swing low of around HKEX:1 ,885 will be in the spotlight.
Meanwhile, a corrective bounce in the bullion price needs to stay beyond the 100-SMA and top line of the stated triangle, respectively near HKEX:2 ,003 and HKEX:2 ,010, may gold the Gold buyers. It’s worth noting that the quote’s successful trading past HKEX:2 ,010 enables it to challenge the YTD peak of near HKEX:2 ,050 whereas any further advances could aim for the HKEX:2 ,070 key hurdle comprising the previous yearly top and the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the metal’s March 15 to April 19 moves.
Overall, Gold stays on the bear’s table after an initial attempt to lure the bulls. However, the next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting outcome will be crucial to watch for clear directions.
DIVILAB : A MUCH AWAITED REVERSAL RISK REWARD UPTO 1:13.75Divi's Laboratories Limited is an India-based company, which is engaged in manufacturing and sale of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), intermediates and nutraceutical ingredients with predominance in exports. The stock is in downtrend since Oct 2021 and was moving in a channel. However , we saw channel break out on 13 April 2023 and we see that the level @ 3188.55 has supported the price thereafter and may proved to be next swing to the reversal trend. An opportunity to enter the trade as the risk reward ratio is high due to relatively small Stop Loss .
ENTRY @ CMP i.e. 3207 ,
STOP LOSS @ 3046.20
TARGETS : 3911.80 , 4410.20 , 5420
RISK REWARD RATIO : 1:4.3 TO 1:13.75
We rarely get such opportunity with such a great Risk Reward Ratio. Worth taking this risk and certainly a trade opportunity not to be missed .
Please remember that this study is only for education purpose , do your own analysis before trading. Good Luck !!!
Borosil renewable is an example of a textbook patternWeekly analysis of Bororenew stock can be analyzed as a beautiful representation of flag and pole pattern.
The flag is a falling wedge pattern and currently is nearing the breakout zone which is also its 50% fib retracement level.
The daily time frame chart of the stock is signaling a bullish breakout and the risk to reward is very attractive.
Fundamentally, this stock is one of the best picks for renewable sector. You can study the chart and invest as per your own analysis.
Emotions should not affect our trade management systemTrader should identify emotions that are affecting our trading management decisions, and find genuine solution to over come from the same to become a better trader.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Gold inks bullish consolidation inside key rising trend channelGold price seesaws around the top line of a five-month-old bullish channel, recently supported by the 10-day EMA. It’s worth noting, however, that the smaller gap towards the north joins descending RSI (14) line and easing bullish bias of the MACD signals to keep XAUUSD sellers hopeful. However, a clear downside break of the 10-day EMA, around $1,955 by the press time, becomes necessary to convince intraday sellers. Even so, the $1,900 round figure and a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since early February, near $1,860, could restrict the metal’s further downside. In a case where the commodity remains bearish past $1,860, the stated channel’s lower line and the 200-day EMA, respectively near $1,841 and $1,825, act as the last defense of the buyers.
On the contrary, the $2,000 psychological magnet keeps restricting the short-term upside of the Gold price, a break of which could push XAUUSD bulls towards the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension of the metal’s moves between November 2022 and late February 2023, close to $2,017. Should the precious metal remains firmer past $2,017, the aforementioned channel’s resistance line, close to $2,021, may become the only hurdle between the bulls and the previous yearly top surrounding $2,070.
Overall, the Gold price stays inside a bullish chart formation despite having limited room towards the north.
AUDUSD bulls slowly tighten grips on Australia inflation dayFollowing its bounce off YTD low, the AUDUSD pair crossed an important resistance line from early February, now support. The Aussie pair’s further advances, however, remained gradual and portray a 13-day-old bullish channel. That said, the quote picks up bids inside the aforementioned bullish chart formation ahead of Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February. Given the likely easing inflation pressure in the Pacific major’s economy, the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hurdle of around 0.6740 gains attention ahead of the stated channel’s top line, close to 0.6760. It’s worth noting that the mid-February swing high surrounding 0.6785 acts as the last check for the Aussie pair buyers.
Alternatively, a downside break of the 0.6640 support, comprising the lower line of the bullish channel, could quickly drag the AUDUSD price towards the resistance-turned-resistance line from early February, close to 0.6575. It’s worth noting that the Aussie pair’s weakness past 0.6575 can witness a bumpy road as the yearly bottom of 0.6562 and the last October’s peak near 0.6545 may challenge the bears afterward.
To sum up, AUDUSD forms a bullish chart pattern and a bumpy road toward the south as traders analyze Australian inflation data.
USDJPY drops within falling wedgeUSDJPY struggles to defend the first positive week in five, grinding lower inside a falling wedge bullish chart formation. It should be noted that the bullish MACD signals and upward-sloping RSI (14) line, not overbought, keep buyers hopeful despite the latest weakness of the Yen pair. However, a sustained break of the 50-SMA hurdle surrounding 131.85 becomes necessary for the Yen pair buyers to retake control. Following that, the 200-SMA and the monthly high, respectively near 134.00 and 137.95, could probe the quote’s advances during the run-up to achieve the theoretical target of around 139.85.
On the flip side, an ascending support line from mid-January, near 130.60 at the latest, restricts the short-term USDJPY downside, if the Yen pair defies the latest bullish breakout by dropping back below the 131.40 resistance-turned-support. In a case where the pair remains weak past 130.60, the 130.00 round figure and the latest swing low around 129.70 may entertain sellers before challenging them by the stated wedge’s lower line, close to 129.20. It should be noted that the quote’s weakness past 129.20 makes it vulnerable to declining toward the yearly low of 127.21, marked in January.
Overall, USDJPY consolidates the monthly losses and is likely to regain the buyer’s confidence in the next month.
Gold has smoother road towards the northGold teased bears earlier in the week by defying the bullish channel but the follow-on bounce off the $1,934-36 zone renewed buying interest in the yellow metal. However, a clear upside break of $2,000 becomes necessary for the XAUUSD buyers for conviction. Also acting as an upside filter is the aforementioned channel’s lower line, close to $2,011 at the latest. Following that, a run-up toward the previous yearly high of around $2,070 can’t be ruled out.
Meanwhile, a one-week-old horizontal support zone near $1,934-36 puts a floor under the Gold price, a break of which could quickly recall the $1,900 threshold on the chart. However, a convergence of the 200-EMA and six-week-old horizontal region surrounding $1,890-85 appears a tough nut to crack for the bears. Should the bears keep the reins past $1,895, the early-month swing high of near $1,854 can flash on their radars.
Overall, the Gold price may keep grinding higher as promising oscillators join the metal’s hesitance in declining.