Agarwal Ind - Detailed Analysis - Multibagger IDEAFACT FILE
Company is primarily engaged in the business activities of manufacturing and trading of Petrochemicals (Bitumen and Bituminous Products), logistics of bitumen and liquefied Petroleum Gas and energy generation through Wind Mills
In Budget 2023 Road ministry got a 36% hike in allocation at Rs 2.7 lakh cr for 2023-24,to help the ministry meet the 25,000-km road development target announced in the 2022-23 Budget. This development pace is creating a huge demand for road materials, thereby our responsibilities of catering Bitumen has further increased. The market opportunity is tremendous and we have captured almost 20%-30% of the bulk market share in Bitumen in the private sector. Expecting strong growth in infrastructure activity and based on the current market trend and order pipeline, we have a strong guidance of sustainable long-term growth
The company undertakes transportation activities for itself and for reputed corporates like BPCL, HPCL & IOCL
The company started its shipping activities business in FY20 from its wholly owned subsidiary based @UAE
It acquired its first vessel - "BITUMEN PRINCESS" which commenced operations in May 2019. The ship is primarily used to import bitumen from UAE back to India.
Presently, the company has 4 different business segments :-
1. Manufacturing and trading of Bitumen & value added Bituminous Products
2. Co. has large fleet of specialized Bulk Bitumen & LPG Tankers (Logistics)
3. Generates power through wind mills situated in Jaisalmer and Dhulia.
4. Undertaking of various ship/ vessel/ ocean related activities through its wholly owned subsidiary
GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES - FACT FILE
• Rising consumption with increasing Y-o-Y demand creating opportunities for Constant production.
• Bitumen consumption in India is one of the lowest among top 10 countries by road network, creating future growth opportunities.
• India has the second-largest road network in the world at about ~64 lakh kms providing large maintenance opportunities Y-o-Y.
• Large road network compared to vis a vis peers with low bitumen consumption providing opportunities.
• Making India’s growth a reality –
Infra spend on roads and large quantum of repair and maintenance causing demand and recession free growth momentum.
Huge opportunities across business segments
Bitumen will continue to outperform Cement roads.
Safety concerns in concrete roads higher as vehicles likely to slip or slide owning to rain and snow.
Cement roads have high initial cost of construction
Greater maintenance issue as whole slab has to be replaced when roads rupture.
Paving cost for cement roads are higher compared to bitumen roads.
Company has plans to enter into the Bitumen market in North region of India, to increase its customer base and revenue
CONTINUING MARKET LEADERSHIP IN BITUMEN IN INDIA
INDIA’S LARGEST BITUMEN COMPANY IN PRIVATE SECTOR
Eight large bitumen logistic vessels having total capacity of 48550 MT, through our Wholly Owned Subsidiary, AICL Overseas – FZ LLC, which are used in importing raw bitumen from Oil Producing Countries.
Continuous addition of vessels to support Core business FY 2020 1 Vessel with capacity 4750 tons FY 2021 2 Vessels with total Capacity 7400 tons FY 2022 addition of 2 Vessels with total Capacity to 16500 tons FY 2023 addition of 3 Vessels with total Capacity 19900 tons.
Integrated infra-ancillary company focused on bitumen. Market-leading position in bitumen built on presence throughout the supply chain with 8 Bitumen logistcs vessel of 48550 MT. ton of Capacity 650+ Fleet Size Consisting of 350+ Bitumen Tankers & 300+ LPG Tankers
Long Term Target Minimum 3x - Had recommended earlier when it was 640 odd
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Regards,
Naresh G
SEBI Reg. RA
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Likhitha Infrastructure Ltd for Long.*What the company does ?
Likhitha Infrastructure Ltd is a company that specializes in tasks like laying pipelines for supplying gas, constructing canals for irrigation, building bridges over those canals, and carrying out maintenance work related to these projects since 1988.
Company's clients- GAIL, IHB, HPCL, IOCL, ONGC, IGL, IOAGPL, TGPL, IGGL, BPCL, etc.
*Future Outlook:
The company plans to expand into new areas by taking on Tankage Projects and is anticipating an order from IOCL (Indian Oil Corporation Limited).
It is exploring opportunities in regions like the Middle East, Africa, and other countries with high demand for Pipeline Infrastructure companies.
The company is in discussions with multiple Offshore T&I (Transportation and Installation) companies to enter the Offshore business.
Fundamentals
>>Company is debt-free.
>>Expected to have a strong quarter.
>>Impressive profit growth of 52.6% CAGR over the past 5 years.
>>Consistent track record of good return on equity (ROE), with a 26.6% ROE over the past 3 years.
Technical
>>The stock is consistently moving upwards in an uptrend.
>>The price of the stock is consistently reaching higher highs and higher lows.
>>This trend is supported by a strong level of support Formed by the stock.
>>The price has experienced some pullbacks recently and is now trading close to a support level.
>>We have an opportunity to potentially make a 10% gain from the current price level by placing a stop-loss order below the trend line.
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#trading #Ideas #Breakout #Analysis.
HINDPETRO (HPCL) - Inverted Head and Shoulders (Bullish)Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern (Bullish) - Pullback Complete (Daily Chart)
Inverted Hammer Candlestick Formation @ 200 MA Support
Long Trendline Break and taken support
Possiblility of Golden Crossover
CMP: 245
Target: 300-310
Stop Loss: 225
Risk to Reward: 1:2
Trade according to your risk appetite
Hindustan petroleum Hindustan petroleum ( hindpetro) consolidating around strong support level. Good risk to reward trade. CMP:229 sl: 200(wcb) Target: 255/275/295/330. Hpcl payes 6-7% dividend yield, good time to accumulate as a portfolio stocks for dividend too.. if 200 level sustain in future then on chart rounding bottom formation is in progress which might take stock to 475 to 500 level also
NIFTY ANALYSIS AND WEEKLY PICKSNIFTY ON 06-01-2023
Opened flat, NIFTY failed to sustain the immediate resistance of 18040 and selling pressure was observed in all indices.
BANK and IT remained the biggest losers with losses of 0.99% and 2.0%.
The weak global cues, fear of recession and selling from FIIs were the prime reasons behind the unidirectional fall.
Index fell to retest 17800 during Intraday which is strong support level of NIFTY for short as well as medium term.
Index finally closed above 17850 with a loss of 0.74% making a long bearish candle on daily chart.
Technical View: Daily Chart
NIFTY has made a Bearish candle with Lower Highs Lower Lows candle formation which may be taken as an indication of further downside.
NIFTY is moving below EMA 13, 21, 34 and EMA 13< EMA21<EMA34 which confirms the down trend of Index.
RSI below 40 level confirms that Index has come out of consolidation zone and a break down has occurred.
Support and Resistance : Daily Chart
17840-775 will work as the first support level for NIFTY and below this 17729 will hold strong support.
On the upper side NIFTY will face resistance in the range of 17915-986. Above this 18040 will hold strong resistance.
Sectoral View: Weekly Charts
BANK and OIL&GAS look strong on chart and investors should look for opportunities to buy on Dips.
AUTO, FMCG and PHARMA are signaling of positive reversal from current reversal while METAL and PSU BANK are signaling negative reversal from current levels.
IT looks weak and the traders should adopt the strategy of Sell on Rise in this sector.
View for Traders:
Index is weak as all the technical indicators are signaling in this direction as discussed above.
An analysis of Options Chain also gives us the clear view that traders are bearish on Index as the highest OI of 11960850 is on Call side is at 18000 against which OI of 5485950 lies at 18000 on Put Side. Hence, 18000 will be the crucial level to watch.
However, there are two factors which may give some relief to the bulls:
I. Dow Jones jumped 2,13% during the Trading session in USA on Friday
II. Index has given a rally from 17800 level during the recent fall
So, the cues are mixed and it indicates that Monday i.e., 09.01.2023 is going to be a volatile session with trades taking place at both ends.
As it seems that trades will take place at both the ends the traders must be ready for the volatility.
Buy NIFTY in the range of 17900-925 for target of 18000-18025. SL may be kept below 17800 on closing basis.
Sell NIFTY in the range of 18000-18040 for target of 17925-900. SL may be kept above 18100 on closing basis.
WEEKLY PICKS
1. HPCL
Buy in the range of 240-245
Target 263
SL 230.
Potential Upside 9.58%
2. IOC
Buy in the range of 80-81
Target 86
SL : 78
Potential Upside: 7.5%
3. SONACOMS
Buy in the range of 411-415
Target 455
SL 400
Potential Upside 10.70%
4. ASTRAL LTD
Buy in the range of 2030-2050
Target 2160
SL 1995
Potential Upside 6.40%
5. CUMMINS INDIA
Buy in the range of 1415-1420
Target 1502
SL 1390
Potential upside 6.14%
Nifty Energy DTF Price Chart - Still Weak - Short Candidate#CNXENERGY still a weak sector on DTF basis price action. It seems like a possible H&S Pattern in the making with neckline as the middle of parallel channel. Also since the price is below the MA's and in a down channel my overall view remainsBearish for this sector. Shorts recommended
Energy, Oil & Gas, Power Stocks clearly Avoid Long
Some stocks for the sector are - Reliance, NTPC, GAIL, Powergrid, Tata Power, BPCL, HPCL, ONGC. Find your best stock to short basis OI data and future buildup
Disclaimer -
- The view expressed here are my personal views. I am publishing this for my own records and what I see on charts.
- If you're referring to this, please consider this ONLY FOR educational & research purposes.
- Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions
- Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same. DO NOT consider this as an investment suggestion.
- It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely
- Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance
- Do your own analysis and consult your financial advisor before investing.
TIA!
MRPL ON HIGH WITH VOLUMEMangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) was set up as a joint venture (JV) between the AV Birla Group and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL). It is now a subsidiary of the Oil & Natural Gas Corporation(ONGC). The company is mainly engaged in the business of refining crude oil, petrochemical business, trading of aviation fuels, and distribution of petroleum products through retail outlets and transport terminals
The company is expected to give a good quarter
Stock is trading at 3.39 times its book value
The company has a low-interest coverage ratio.
The company has delivered a poor sales growth of -4.20% over the past five years.
The company has had a low return on equity of -15.09% for the last 3 years.
The company might be capitalizing on the interest cost
TRADE ONLY ON YOUR DUE DILIGENCE
Simple Trade Setup | HINDPETRO |04-10-2021 [INTRADAY]NSE:HINDPETRO
Observations:
1) On 15min time frame, we can see there is hidden bullish divergence is formed. As price is making higher lows and RSI is making lower lows.
If tomorrow it sustain above 300 level then we can see upmove.
Please refer below chart : 15 Time Frame.
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Trade Setup for Date 04-10-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respsective level considering how price action works near that level.
[Positional] HPCL Short IdeaIt is gap.
Gap is filled.
It is huge wick telling resistance
Huge OI at 300 Calls
So, short below today's low.
Note -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
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I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
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I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
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Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives.
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BUT HPCL- AMAZING RALLY PENDINGDISCLAIMER: All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. Kindly consult your licensed financial advisor before making any and all investment decisions. I am not a SEBI registered financial advisor. By Viewing any material or using the information provided by me, you agree that this is general education material and you will not hold any person or entity responsible for loss or damages resulting from the content or general advice provided here.