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NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL UPDATE -any selling pressure in us market is absorbed and short covering takes place -s&p 500 and nasdaq catching up to dow jones -weekly chart of us market is indicating bullish momenutm -double bottom on nasdaq breakout on the card on weekly chart -opening up another 1500-2000 point move on index -s&p 500 weekly bearish trendline break plus ascending triangle breakout on the cards -asian markets apart from india is looking good -adani stocks battered due to report on the stock -dampaning sentitment in markets major thing to watch -fii long exposure down to 25:75(short) -dollar index below 102 levels -US-10Y below 3.5 -fed policy on 1st feb *market has factored a hike of only 25 bps *hike of 50 bps will lead to selling pressure for short-term *a hike of only 25 bps will lead to major short-covering and bigger move in the market indian market update *finally budget week is hear *it is simple on raise in ltcg and in stt will lead to rally *pre-election budget govt will focus on relieve for the common man *an reduction in tax slab for both individual and corporate will lead to massive rally *market fall in jan was for purely budget reasons and adani operators *again expectation of 200-dma retest was fullfilled *today both nifty and banknifty retested its 200-ema NIFTY TECHNICAL UPATE -breakdown of 17800 was seen -as we expected a sharp sell off after breakdown -17400 tested today and that is 80% of the range breakdown -now the question rises will be re-enter the range and break on the high side -probability is getting higher and higher day by day -we are going into the event with negative sentiment and over pessimism -fii long exposure is only 25% -market is extremely oversold -valuation are back at attractive level *17500-to-17300 levels is buy zone *risk reward ratio here is good *stocks on radar -Reliance -Hdfc twins -bajaj twins (bajfin/finsv) -icici bank -sbin -tcs -infy all looking bullish for budget week NIFTY MAJOR SUPPORT 17300-17400-17500 NIFTY MAJOR RESISTANCE 17830-17975-18120 BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE -as expected after a gap down below 41500 -we expected a move towards 40000-39750 -but not so quick -banknifty has fallen from -43000 to 39500 in 4 trading sessions -over reaction due to the exposure to adani group stocks -technical speaking banknifty has tested its 200-ema -today was a big volatile day as banknifty -banknifty we went long near 40050 in the morning -trade update in channel -check the link belwo -banknifty has given the range target -reversing for the lows,banknifty pcr@0.54 BNF MAJOR SUPPORT 39250-39750-40000 BNF MAJOR RESISTANCE 40800-41500-41800
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by manavtechresearch
INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL MARKET UPDATE -us mkt rallied big time due to noise of 25 bps rate hike only from feb -fed voting members chance in tone -us bond yield and dollar index indicating the pivot is near -nasdaq outperformed rest of the indicies -china open play still active -its clear fpi investment in chineese stocks have increased -7 day holiday in china due to festive season INDIAN MARKET UPATE -dollar/inr below 81 -dollar index below 102 -weekly chart of the both signaling bearish view for dollar -weak dollar positive for financials and metals -double top or "M" in dollar/inr weekly chart -top numbers by icici bank and kotak bank HAD PROMISED TO PICK SECTOR OF THE MONTH -we had picked metal index for jan -we will continue to stay long on metal stocks for china play -the index which is added on relative strenth basis is "IT SECTOR" -LONGS IN METAL AND IT SECTOR -EXPECT IT SECTOR TO START OUTPERFORMING TECHNICALS NIFTY INDEX -nifty index is still within the trading zone of 18250-18300 to 17830-17770 -had discussed in the group about actual bear trap on friday -were markekt closed below 18100 and now 18100 ce having max oi -if market opens above 18150 according sgx will force 18100 ce writers to cover the position -18100 can be the base for nifty this week -nifty index on weekly chart has inside bar pattern for past 4 weeks -sooner or later the range will break -probability is on a upside break -positive divergence in nifty -price above bearish trendline and sustaining MAJOR RESISTANCE 18250-18300 MAJOR SUPPORT 17830-17770 TECHNICAL BANKNIFTY INDEX -friday technically banknifty breakout of a small trading range -price trying to cross above major moving averages -banknifty has created higher low formation from past 4 days -major range from 42750 to 41800 is above to break on the upside -icici bank and kotak bank great numbers -rbl bank and idfc bank also great numbers -had mention icici bank and kotak bank are going negative into event -short-covering is possible -hdfc bank has started its bull run -we have started to see a symmetrical triangle pattern on daily chart in banknifty MAJOR RESISTANCE 42750-42850 MAJOR SUPPORT 41850-41750
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by manavtechresearch
INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL UPDATE -dollar index has fallen sharply below 103 level on the verge of testing 100 -s&p 500 breaking major bearish trendline in daily chart -ready to break above its 200-dma -nasdaq already rallied 1000 points from bottom -dow jone tested 200-dma and now moving forward on the verge of breaking swing high -china reopening play putting pressure on curde oil but positives for metals -gold and silver commodity play is the key INDIAN MARKET UPDATE -major result week coming up -cpi cooled down to 5.7% -usd/inr down to 81.2 from 83 few days ago -ruppee expected to gain strenth again this week -better than expected results by major IT STOCKS -stellar numbers by hdfcbank -expecting banknifty to also perform this week NIFTY TECHNICAL UDPATE -index on intraday basis broke 17770 last week -and rebounded from there -metal and IT stocks outperformaned -metals to outperform this week also -nifty again a close below 17770 will open up 500 point fall on downside -index on the upside a close above 18130 will open up 18300-18500-18800 (initially) -major moving average congestion is seen on the charts -is it a desending triangle pattern or a wide double bottom pattern -it remains to be seen -fresh longs only if index closes above 18130 -on weekly chart we have 3 inside bars now -this range shall break and we should have a trending market -for index to trend on the higher side we need a weekly close above 18300 -for index to trend on the downside we need a weekly close below 17770 NIFTY MAJOR LEVELS (CLOSING BASIS)/(SPOT LEVELS) RESISTANCE 18130-18260-18420 SUPPORT 17770-17830 BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL LEVELS -again banknifty index is in a crucial position -index for now seems to be able to defend 41600-41500 zone -according to technical pattern we can see a wide double bottom or a symmetrical pattern -major breakout in index above 43500 levels -remember nifty correction was sharper and was underperforming the banknifty index -banknifty index has many things going for it today *hdfc bank stellar results *icici bank bottoming out (will take action based on hdfc bank results also) *dollar index corrected to 101 levels *dollar/inr pair corrected from 83 to 81 levels *trendline break in small timeframe -only major levels to watch BANKNIFTY MAJOR LEVELS (CLOSING BASIS)/(SPOT LEVELS) RESISTANCE 42800-43200-43550 SUPPORT 41900-41750-41550 DISCLAIMER:- these are my personal views trade with strict stoploss take risk according to risk appetite
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL UPDATE:- -all major market on friday rallied after us jobs data -remember jobs data was bad -but the important part was jobs created on lower wages -wages and average earnings have fallen down -plus the pmi data came negative -rising jobs+falling wages was cheered by the market -it indicates soft landing -so now looking the charts on friday of us mkt clearly we see symmetrical pattern on index -dxy+usd/inr+US-10y all fell majorly -positives for banks today -soft crude shall also help the market INDIAN MARKETS -we bearly were able to hold supports -remember we are falling despecite of global markets rallying -we have started seeing lower high formation on nifty index and banknifty index -until this pattern of lower high formation is taken out we will fall and eventually break the low -today we need to see follow through in buying -a close above 18030-18120 will go a long way in helping -note like i said in previous conversation other asian markets are now undervalued -so fpi money moving out of india is inevitable -fii sell figures are back -its good they are selling and bring long/short exposure down -only thing we have to do is defend the low -today result season kicks off NIFTY INDEX -we had a crucial stop at 17770 as we were holding positional longs -according to the data today rally can see selling pressure at higher levels -but a clear trend will emerge sooner -previous bottom:17770 current bottom:17795 -it seems like a double bottom pattern -a break close above 18300 will ensure double bottom -a break below 17770 will lead to break swing lower high and lower low formation -i am still bullish until our final support breaks -but will do positional sizing when market closes below 18300 -weekly chart we have inside bar pattern in nifty -its important to watch closing data BANKNIFTY INDEX -banknifty index looking at daily chart defending the rising trendline -pattern emerging is of a climax wedge top on daily chart -a close below 41600 is a end game for longs in banknifty -today banknifty will have support and will rally due to short-covering -it remains to be seen if the rally sustains -banknifty on downside if 41600 breaks exit longs for good -on the upside a close above 42800-43000 is needed to reach a climax top -again like nifty inside bar in weekly chart
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
BANKNFITY TECHNICAL WEEKLY UPDATE TECHNICAL VIEW -banknifty has relative strength as compared to nifty -index outperformed with 21% return in 2022 and is expected to continue -psu bank will be the value play -still have to catch with private banks -outperformance of small private banks (RBL,FEDERAL BK etc) will continue with psu banks -lending banks will continue to perform in rising interest rate cycle MAJOR LEVELS TO WATCH RESISTANCE 43550 (a close above 43550 will lead to retest of recent new all time high) SUPPORT 42900 (a close below 42900 will lead to break down of 20-ema and will lead to consolidation DISCLAIMER:- -please consult your financial advisor -this is not a recommendation -please make your risk -do not overtrade
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!
by manavtechresearch