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NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL UPDATE
-any selling pressure in us market is absorbed and short covering takes place
-s&p 500 and nasdaq catching up to dow jones
-weekly chart of us market is indicating bullish momenutm
-double bottom on nasdaq breakout on the card on weekly chart
-opening up another 1500-2000 point move on index
-s&p 500 weekly bearish trendline break plus ascending triangle breakout on the cards
-asian markets apart from india is looking good
-adani stocks battered due to report on the stock
-dampaning sentitment in markets
major thing to watch
-fii long exposure down to 25:75(short)
-dollar index below 102 levels
-US-10Y below 3.5
-fed policy on 1st feb
*market has factored a hike of only 25 bps
*hike of 50 bps will lead to selling pressure for short-term
*a hike of only 25 bps will lead to major short-covering and bigger move in the market
indian market update
*finally budget week is hear
*it is simple on raise in ltcg and in stt will lead to rally
*pre-election budget govt will focus on relieve for the common man
*an reduction in tax slab for both individual and corporate will lead to massive rally
*market fall in jan was for purely budget reasons and adani operators
*again expectation of 200-dma retest was fullfilled
*today both nifty and banknifty retested its 200-ema
NIFTY TECHNICAL UPATE
-breakdown of 17800 was seen
-as we expected a sharp sell off after breakdown
-17400 tested today and that is 80% of the range breakdown
-now the question rises will be re-enter the range and break on the high side
-probability is getting higher and higher day by day
-we are going into the event with negative sentiment and over pessimism
-fii long exposure is only 25%
-market is extremely oversold
-valuation are back at attractive level
*17500-to-17300 levels is buy zone
*risk reward ratio here is good
*stocks on radar
-Reliance
-Hdfc twins
-bajaj twins (bajfin/finsv)
-icici bank
-sbin
-tcs
-infy
all looking bullish for budget week
NIFTY MAJOR SUPPORT
17300-17400-17500
NIFTY MAJOR RESISTANCE
17830-17975-18120
BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-as expected after a gap down below 41500
-we expected a move towards 40000-39750
-but not so quick
-banknifty has fallen from
-43000 to 39500 in 4 trading sessions
-over reaction due to the exposure to adani group stocks
-technical speaking banknifty has tested its 200-ema
-today was a big volatile day as banknifty
-banknifty we went long near 40050 in the morning
-trade update in channel
-check the link belwo
-banknifty has given the range target
-reversing for the lows,banknifty pcr@0.54
BNF MAJOR SUPPORT
39250-39750-40000
BNF MAJOR RESISTANCE
40800-41500-41800
INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL MARKET UPDATE
-us mkt rallied big time due to noise of 25 bps rate hike only from feb
-fed voting members chance in tone
-us bond yield and dollar index indicating the pivot is near
-nasdaq outperformed rest of the indicies
-china open play still active
-its clear fpi investment in chineese stocks have increased
-7 day holiday in china due to festive season
INDIAN MARKET UPATE
-dollar/inr below 81
-dollar index below 102
-weekly chart of the both signaling bearish view for dollar
-weak dollar positive for financials and metals
-double top or "M" in dollar/inr weekly chart
-top numbers by icici bank and kotak bank
HAD PROMISED TO PICK SECTOR OF THE MONTH
-we had picked metal index for jan
-we will continue to stay long on metal stocks for china play
-the index which is added on relative strenth basis is "IT SECTOR"
-LONGS IN METAL AND IT SECTOR
-EXPECT IT SECTOR TO START OUTPERFORMING
TECHNICALS NIFTY INDEX
-nifty index is still within the trading zone of 18250-18300 to 17830-17770
-had discussed in the group about actual bear trap on friday
-were markekt closed below 18100 and now 18100 ce having max oi
-if market opens above 18150 according sgx will force 18100 ce writers to cover the position
-18100 can be the base for nifty this week
-nifty index on weekly chart has inside bar pattern for past 4 weeks
-sooner or later the range will break
-probability is on a upside break
-positive divergence in nifty
-price above bearish trendline and sustaining
MAJOR RESISTANCE
18250-18300
MAJOR SUPPORT
17830-17770
TECHNICAL BANKNIFTY INDEX
-friday technically banknifty breakout of a small trading range
-price trying to cross above major moving averages
-banknifty has created higher low formation from past 4 days
-major range from 42750 to 41800 is above to break on the upside
-icici bank and kotak bank great numbers
-rbl bank and idfc bank also great numbers
-had mention icici bank and kotak bank are going negative into event
-short-covering is possible
-hdfc bank has started its bull run
-we have started to see a symmetrical triangle pattern on daily chart in banknifty
MAJOR RESISTANCE
42750-42850
MAJOR SUPPORT
41850-41750
INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL UPDATE
-dollar index has fallen sharply below 103 level on the verge of testing 100
-s&p 500 breaking major bearish trendline in daily chart
-ready to break above its 200-dma
-nasdaq already rallied 1000 points from bottom
-dow jone tested 200-dma and now moving forward on the verge of breaking swing high
-china reopening play putting pressure on curde oil but positives for metals
-gold and silver commodity play is the key
INDIAN MARKET UPDATE
-major result week coming up
-cpi cooled down to 5.7%
-usd/inr down to 81.2 from 83 few days ago
-ruppee expected to gain strenth again this week
-better than expected results by major IT STOCKS
-stellar numbers by hdfcbank
-expecting banknifty to also perform this week
NIFTY TECHNICAL UDPATE
-index on intraday basis broke 17770 last week
-and rebounded from there
-metal and IT stocks outperformaned
-metals to outperform this week also
-nifty again a close below 17770 will open up 500 point fall on downside
-index on the upside a close above 18130 will open up 18300-18500-18800 (initially)
-major moving average congestion is seen on the charts
-is it a desending triangle pattern or a wide double bottom pattern
-it remains to be seen
-fresh longs only if index closes above 18130
-on weekly chart we have 3 inside bars now
-this range shall break and we should have a trending market
-for index to trend on the higher side we need a weekly close above 18300
-for index to trend on the downside we need a weekly close below 17770
NIFTY MAJOR LEVELS (CLOSING BASIS)/(SPOT LEVELS)
RESISTANCE
18130-18260-18420
SUPPORT
17770-17830
BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL LEVELS
-again banknifty index is in a crucial position
-index for now seems to be able to defend 41600-41500 zone
-according to technical pattern we can see a wide double bottom or a symmetrical pattern
-major breakout in index above 43500 levels
-remember nifty correction was sharper and was underperforming the banknifty index
-banknifty index has many things going for it today
*hdfc bank stellar results
*icici bank bottoming out (will take action based on hdfc bank results also)
*dollar index corrected to 101 levels
*dollar/inr pair corrected from 83 to 81 levels
*trendline break in small timeframe
-only major levels to watch
BANKNIFTY MAJOR LEVELS (CLOSING BASIS)/(SPOT LEVELS)
RESISTANCE
42800-43200-43550
SUPPORT
41900-41750-41550
DISCLAIMER:-
these are my personal views
trade with strict stoploss
take risk according to risk appetite
INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL UPDATE:-
-all major market on friday rallied after us jobs data
-remember jobs data was bad
-but the important part was jobs created on lower wages
-wages and average earnings have fallen down
-plus the pmi data came negative
-rising jobs+falling wages was cheered by the market
-it indicates soft landing
-so now looking the charts on friday of us mkt clearly we see symmetrical pattern on index
-dxy+usd/inr+US-10y all fell majorly
-positives for banks today
-soft crude shall also help the market
INDIAN MARKETS
-we bearly were able to hold supports
-remember we are falling despecite of global markets rallying
-we have started seeing lower high formation on nifty index and banknifty index
-until this pattern of lower high formation is taken out we will fall and eventually break the low
-today we need to see follow through in buying
-a close above 18030-18120 will go a long way in helping
-note like i said in previous conversation other asian markets are now undervalued
-so fpi money moving out of india is inevitable
-fii sell figures are back
-its good they are selling and bring long/short exposure down
-only thing we have to do is defend the low
-today result season kicks off
NIFTY INDEX
-we had a crucial stop at 17770 as we were holding positional longs
-according to the data today rally can see selling pressure at higher levels
-but a clear trend will emerge sooner
-previous bottom:17770 current bottom:17795
-it seems like a double bottom pattern
-a break close above 18300 will ensure double bottom
-a break below 17770 will lead to break swing lower high and lower low formation
-i am still bullish until our final support breaks
-but will do positional sizing when market closes below 18300
-weekly chart we have inside bar pattern in nifty
-its important to watch closing data
BANKNIFTY INDEX
-banknifty index looking at daily chart defending the rising trendline
-pattern emerging is of a climax wedge top on daily chart
-a close below 41600 is a end game for longs in banknifty
-today banknifty will have support and will rally due to short-covering
-it remains to be seen if the rally sustains
-banknifty on downside if 41600 breaks exit longs for good
-on the upside a close above 42800-43000 is needed to reach a climax top
-again like nifty inside bar in weekly chart
BANKNIFTY INVERTED PATTERN VISIBLE -index has seen inverted head and shoulder pattern in lower time frame
-banknifty as discussed in index weekly update had made it clear
-a move above 43550 will lead to major short covering and retest of previous all time high
-trailing my buy with yesterday low as stop
DISCLAIMER:-
-please consult your financial advisor
-this is not a recommendation
-please make your risk
-do not overtrade
BANKNFITY TECHNICAL WEEKLY UPDATE TECHNICAL VIEW
-banknifty has relative strength as compared to nifty
-index outperformed with 21% return in 2022 and is expected to continue
-psu bank will be the value play
-still have to catch with private banks
-outperformance of small private banks (RBL,FEDERAL BK etc) will continue with psu banks
-lending banks will continue to perform in rising interest rate cycle
MAJOR LEVELS TO WATCH
RESISTANCE
43550 (a close above 43550 will lead to retest of recent new all time high)
SUPPORT
42900 (a close below 42900 will lead to break down of 20-ema and will lead to consolidation
DISCLAIMER:-
-please consult your financial advisor
-this is not a recommendation
-please make your risk
-do not overtrade
NIFTY FIRST WEEKLY UPDATE OF THE YEAR Dear members sorry for not posting analysis on regular basis in the second half of the year
this new year i will try to change the habit and be regular in posting
-will post in new format from here on
-will have regular weekly update
-will try to give out more positional and better risk-reward trades
-global update on weekly basis
LETS BEGIN THE YEAR
GLOBAL UPDATE:-
-USA markets suffered the most in 2022
-wall street now well prepared for recession
-never before this has happened that markets are waiting for a recession
-another 50 basis rate hike from here is expected from the fed lets see action on that front
-again this year cpi data will create volatility in market
-expectation of second half rally in wall street is seen
-dollar index which created havoc last year seems to cool down
-geopolitical war continue one of the worrying factor for the market
-covid related issues will not have major impact on markets
-unknown or markets have not absorbed is the China-Taiwan issue
-any action on that front market is not ready
NIFTY TECHNICAL VIEW
-index has created new high and corrected from top
-market will break the swing pattern above 18500
-but if markets breaks above its 20-dma/ema and closes on daily chart
-markets will gain momentum
-on the downside swing low of 17780 is of major significance
-if market breaks the swing low of 17780 we will test 17630-17300 (200-dma)
-fall will intensify after that
MAJOR TECH LEVELS FOR NIFTY
RESISTANCE
18350-18500 (need a close above 18500)
SUPPORT
17970-17780 (swing low breakdown below 17780)
DISCLAIMER:-
-please consult your financial advisor
-this is not a recommendation
-please make your risk
-do not overtrade
INDEX WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL UPDATE
-go read the previous week analysis
-you will get an idea we got 80% of the forecast right
-we knew 75 bps were factored
-what we did not know is that powell will destoy the slogan of fed pivot
-we knew after the event was over market will resume the rally in indian market
-wall street also made a smart recovery
-european markets are not worth discussing now there is pain left there
-fed fund rate suggesting a 50 bps rate hike in dec followed by a pivot in feb
-i have explained this part multiple times about the market bottoming out
-six months before the fed pivot
-jobs data is still strong but you can see a change is coming
-mass layoff in major banks and IT sector
-unenployement rate has increased
-in usa a change economic data is inevitable
-next imporant data again is the cpi number
-fed is watching data carefully
INDIAN MARKET UPDATE
-like said before index until defending 18000
-and banknifty index consoildating after a huge up move
-is indicating we are moving towards a new all-time high
-we expected a new all-time high by diwali in nifty index
-but its okay we missed the mark
-we did hit our first target of 41500 in banknifty (forecast made in jul)
KEEPING THINGS SIMPLE
NIFTY INDEX
-nifty a must trailed stoploss of 17970(clossing basis since trade is positional)
-we went long earilier so we have trailed the stop from 17830 to 17940(following the telegram link in singature box below)
-our target on nifty index remains the same initially looking for 18430-18550
-a close above 18600 will open up target towards 19225-19430 (more on monthly)
-we have a monthly chart bullish flag pattern breakout
-we have rising inverted head and shoulder complex pattern break on lower time frame
-keep it simple
-17970 below closing is our stop
-target will be revised higher
BANKNIFTY INDEX
-solid consolidation after a huge rally
-taking a breather
-sbin the catalyst for the breakout
-watchout a move towards 43000 is opening up
-we are in the mark up phase of the rally now
-tomorrow we can gap-up and move extremely higher
-consolidation after a rally marks the continuation pattern
-move is coming need to be ready
NIFTY LEVELS TO WATCH NOW
18345-18480-18550
BANKNIFTY
41650-41850-42000
INDEX WEEKLY UPDATEGLOBAL UPDATE
-DXY again back@113
-DOLLAR/INR is above 82.8 might open above 83
-watchout out for european bond market
-geopolitical situation is worsening
-crude oil price rising again after opec meet
-wall street trading near 52k-week low
THINGS TO WATCH THIS WEEK
-the week again we have "cpi" on thursday
-we have fed minutes on wednesday but will have less impact as we have cpi on thursday
-usa earning session is also here
-we have our earning session also kickstarting
-watchout for vix in usa market
-it has been seen in the past fed does not pivot until vix test 40
-we will have volatility globally
INDIAN MARKET UPDATE
-domestic ques remain strong
-but finally we are about to given in to the global market
-rising crude oil>rising dollar index>rising bond yields all this is major negative for financial stocks
-geopolitical situation is also not helping the markets
-good credit growth from indian banks@16.4% only positive for banking stock
NIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-watch closely at 16800 levels now
-we might re-enter the trading zone of 17180-16830 again
-if we consolidate in this zone than its a confirmation market is factoring the worst
-it will be a good thing
-thursday cpi numbers will lead to a reaction on indian markets
-we have relative strength as of now
-we have seen nifty now form again lower high and lower low formation
-it has not formed completely it has yet to form its right shoulder
-pattern is more visible in banknifty
-wait and watch approach
-first let us see if market defends 16800
CRUCIAL LEVEL TO WATCH
SUPPORT
17050-16940-1680
RESISTANCE
17240-17350-17430
BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-word of caution here
-in the channel i had informed i have some important update in banknifty
-in banknifty we are seeing a clear classical head and and shoulder pattern being formed
-the left shoulder and head is complete
-the right shoulder is on the verge of completion
-there are clear signs of pattern developing
-global situation can have adverse effect on the financial markets
-i expect pressure in banking stocks more than in any other sector till thursday
-if my analysis is right and we do break the neckline of 37700 and close there
-i am expecting retest of 32000-33000
-if the pattern breaks
-plus major banking stocks are giving confirmation of the pattern as well
-wait and watch approach pattern has yet to give a breakdown below neckline
CRUCIAL SUPPORT
38500-38200-37700
RESISTANCE
39000-39400-39750
"NEW SEGMENT OPTION DATA"
-banknifty pcr@0.88
-nifty pcr@0.97
banknifty oi scan (13th oct)
39000 PUT MAX OI+ MAX ADDITION
40000 CALL OPTION MAX OI
39000 CALL OPTION MAX ADDITION
based on data put writers will be in trouble
since it is monday
volume will kick in will need to see is there fresh oi addition in 38500 pe
if the max oi is added in 38500 pe then we might see some support near there(just a forecast)
nifty oi scan (13th oct)
17000 PE MAX OI+MAX ADDITION
17500 CE MAX OI+MAX ADDITION
based on data it remains to be seen if we defend 17000
followed by 17000 pe writers more strong writers are sitting@16800 pe
i firmly below 17300 ce will see addition writing as will act as a resistance for the day
LIVE UPDATES
-index tracking and global market on through channel
-link below in signature box
DISCLAIMER
-I SHARE MY PERSONAL VIEW ON TRADINGVIEW
-PLEASE CONSULT OUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR
-TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK AND THE RISK THAT YOU CAN AFFORD
NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE GLOBAL UDPATE
-s&p 500 near a crucial junction now
-near its 200-wma
-lehmann brother like collapse in credit suisse and deustche bank doing the rounds
-market hitting peak pessimism
-record shorts in american markets
-usaully in s&p 500 a dip below 200-wma is bought heavily
-emergency fed meet(rumors doing the round) and lot of fed speakers lined up
-in european front uk cpi was a shocker
-global markets are in a serious bear grip
INDIAN MARKET UPDATE
-we are placed far better than the global markets
-last time s&p 500 tested 3600 we were near 15200
-this time we are near 17000 and s&p has broken 3600
-great auto sale numbers overall
-it indicates good health of the economy
-rbi policy statements were positive
-rbi will not like to hinder the credit growth
-we are well placed to fight the inflation front
-were the developed markets are struggling
-oil prices have come down significantly and raw material prices are down globally
-lack of demand and rising interest rate have brought the necessary changes
-if the global market seeing rebound we will be seeing outperformance on relative stregth basis
-right now the scenario is bad globally but at the same time the pessimism is reaching its peak
DXY UPDATE
-dxy major divergence on verge of climax
-weekly chart a clear shooting star pattern
-rejection from the top end of the channel
-dollar index cooling for 115-112 is a good sign for india
-rbi is ready to use the reserves
-but at the same time dollar if falls against major currencies we will not require the reserves
-i have a bear view now from here on
-i had predicted levels of 120 in dxy
-but here when all are bullish you get the picture
NIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-friday rally is short-covering rally or a dead-cat bounce
-it remains to be seen
-but its clear from the current position
-16780 remain the crucial level to watch-out for
-if a close below that is achieved 16480-16420 next level of support for the market
-looking at the current scenarion we have another trading range from 16780-16180
-on save side if market consolidates in this zone and absorbs bad news
-we will see a major upmove towards 17860-17950
-we have absorbed the majority of the bad news but little global improvement will lead to developement
CRUCIAL LEVELS TO WATCH
support
16780-16850-16970
resistance
17180-17240-17430
BANKNIFTY TECHNICAL UPDATE
-it remains to be seen what negative impact the global banking rumors will have on the indian financial stocks
-i believe that our banking stocks are placed well and better than the other developed banks globally
-with a credit growth of 16%-good auto sales numbers-record collection in gst numbers things are looking positive
-still i would like to see the initial impact on markets
-dxy climax divergence in place
-strong credit growth
-rbi support to provide strength to banks
-strong bullish candle in banknifty
-reversal candle on weekly chart but lets wat and watch
-still for me banknifty needs to trade above 39750
-if does then our fist target of 41500 is already reached we may move towards the second target
-strange trade is placed in banknifty monthly options
-some one is writing deep itm put of 43000
-same on the downside@37000
-eating premium might be the goal
-although banknifty is looking good i will wait and watch in banknifty
CRUCIAL LEVELS
support
38200-37850-37600
resistance
39000-39400-39775
LIVE UPDATES
-index tracking and global market on through channel
-link below in signature box
DISCLAIMER
-I SHARE MY PERSONAL VIEW ON TRADINGVIEW
-PLEASE CONSULT OUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR
-TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK AND THE RISK THAT YOU CAN AFFORD
NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE!!good morning members!!
-back with a weekly update
global observation
-dollar index above 110 which is bad
-we have discussed this higher the dollar index fii will pull money
-but the daily chart in dollar index is showing negative divergence
-which indicates a top in dollar index is near
USA MARKET UPDATE
-index closed negative of friday too
-record level of shorts in us markets
-a short squeeze is on the cards
-historic data us market remains negative in sept
EUROPEAN MARKETS
-euro markets are going to suffer the most
-the term "winter is coming actual suits them"
-gas prices are going to go higher
-our natural gas play is going good
-european market inflation is going higher and higher
INDIAN MARKETS
-what we need to see how much of the negative news is priced in
-we have no doubt outperformed global markets
-view is still bearish but we are absorbing the news
-if dollar index tops out we will see major boost in second half of the month
-if market consolidates will be great
-we are in a better position
-remember our market will outperform if there is a global market
-we have seen dollar/inr find resistance at 80.2/80.3
-rbi is capable of monetary intervention
NIFTY INDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
-in simple words nifty index is consolidating
-rejecting the trendline on the upside
-the best and ideal position to buy nifty index is at 17030-17050 or above 17830
-remember if we absorb the global pressure we will fire on the upside sooner of later
-our view of new all time high till diwali is intact
-today we have a holiday in usa market due to labor day
-remember crucial for nifty to defend 17500
-if breaks below i will look for levels of 17050-16950 zones to accumulate nifty
SUPPORT
17430-17225-17150
RESISTANCE
17630-17740-17830
(levels based on closing basis only)
BANKNIFTY INDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
-banknifty index is more strong compared to nifty
-index is trading in a range of 37800-39800
-note here the index is making higher low each time
-levels to watch in banknifty index is 38850
-a move below this level will open up a move towards 37800-38200
-a move above 39800 (sustains for 15-30 mins) will open up a trending move in banknifty index
SUPPORT
37800-38200-38800
RESISTANCE
39750-39800
NOTE FOR BOTH THE INDEX
-past three days we have inside bar pattern on daily chart
-a range break on either side will lead to a good move
DATA
-fii long exposure down to 19%
-all are worrying
-its a good thing their exposure is less in the market
-banknifty and nifty pcr @0.95/1
-only worry is naked put exposure of retail
-they can be taken to cleaners if market reverses
FOR FURTHER TRADE ACTION
-Check the link in the signature box
-further updates only in the channel
BANKNIFTY POSSIBLE FLAG PATTERN BREAKOUT ON THE CARDSSUMMARY
-the index is giving a very bullish signal on daily chart
-a possible bullish flag breakout
-after the bloodbath on wall street indian markets have recovered nicely
-if pattern breaks one can initiate a positional trade on banknifty index
-the view is till diwali so planning is important
-ideal scenario is to go long in banknifty above 39500
some of the banking stocks forming the pattern
SBIN WEEKLY CHART
ICICI BANK DAILY CHART
PVT BANK INDEX
we also have a double bottom pattern in 2-hr chart
breakout above 39500
FEW THINGS TO NOTE
*target and stop will be adjusted after the swing breakout
*for more updates check the link in the signature box below
*find regular updates for market in the channel