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BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE OBSERVATION *pcr is down to 0.7 *we had expected a knee-jerk reaction in the market *vix index has come out of the bottom *now more than nifty banknifty has given a healthy correction *crude is hubbling around 95-97 *dollar index has risen above 108 *US-10Y above 3% *all not good signs for banknifty index *but we have seen them come down from this levels *kotak bank was not included in ftse rebalancing basket *so kotak can be underpressure BANKNIFTY TECHNICA VIEW -index can retrace more towards 38000-38300 zone -we can see further downside in the index but it will be good buy zone -we need to buy the first healthy correction -first re-test of 20-dma moving average and 23.6% retracement is near the zone of 38000-38300 -pcr is placed @0.7 BANKNIFTY LEVELS TO WATCH *i find it hard that below 38720 banknifty will sustain on downside *if banknifty sustains below 38750 it will open for 38500-38250 *levels for banknifty have increased (spread) due to rise in vix banknifty crucial support 38720-38500-38250 banknifty resistance level 39225-39450-39700 NOTE: *for more updates check the link in the signature box below *find regular updates for market in the channel
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by manavtechresearch
NIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE OBSERVATION *i had in advance told you there will be one knee-jerk reaction in markets *we expect a move on friday on the down side *we are prepared for that action *on friday we expect us market will fall *reason there was huge expiry in s&p 500 expiry *dollar index again above 108 and sustaining *US-10Y again above 3% *s&p 500 rejected 200-dma *fii have sold heavily on friday in f&o *cash buying is still strong *pcr has come down NIFTY TECHINCAL VIEW -weekly chart candle on nifty is not giving good signs for nifty -on weekly chart we can see a gravestone doji on weekly chart -we can see a price wise conrrection or timewise correction -but still the market is a bull run -consolidation is good for the markets -nifty on daily chart made a bearish candle -we tested the major trendline breakout -any close below 17550 will cause us to exit from short-term longs -friday panic sell was led by dii selling -pcr is down to 0.8 from 1.37 -unitl we are above the trendline in daily chart i am holding longs -my view is strong for positional view -only issue is global hinderance -plus retal have 2.8 lac contracts in put writting -they will be taken to cleaners -i am expecting a move towards 17550-17580 in intraday techinical levels support crucial supports for the market here market should not break and close below this levels 17630-17580-17500 resistance level 17800-17860-17970 FOR POSITIONAL AND FIBONACCI TRADERS FIBO LEVEL OF 23.6% NEAR 17330 20-DMA LEVELO@17300 IDEAL PLACE TO ADD POSIITONAL LONGS NOTE: *for more updates check the link in the signature box below *find regular updates for market in the channel
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE SUMMARY -there was a major complication in banknifty index at lower levels -one time in june based on data we were looking for a breach of 32200-31800 -that time crude hit 130 dollar major rate hikes were in place -dollar/inr pair starting crossing 77.5 and hit a high of 80.2 -but somehow the banknifty index started absorbing the bad news and started looking forwards -above 34000 weekly close we turned bullish in banknifty LOOKING FORWARDS -usd/inr pair has stablized -rbi intervention less needed but there for the support of inr -cpi numbers have come down -crude price on monday saw a steep fall -all this provides incentive for the bulls -max oi pain@39000 -minor hurdle of 39500 -i had shared a target of 39700 in telegram channel 3 weeks ago -raised it to 41500 -finally icici bank my target of 900 is now active TECHNICAL LEVELS TO WATCH FOR RESISTANCE MINOR 39470-39700-39950 SUPPORT 39000-38750-38650 NOTE: *there can be a knee-jerk reaction to throw weak hands out *banknifty pcr has place to run higher *for more updates check the link in the signature box below
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by manavtechresearch
1
NIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE -first of all sorry members for not posting the update last week SUMMARY IMPORTANT OBSERVATION -coming to data over the weekend let me share you something important -whenever in the past usa market has given a bear rally retracement of 50% from bottom -market have ended up creating the bottom -that figure ended was crossed near 4230 -only hurdle will be on friday where 30% of s&p options will expire -recently that action has created tops so will watch out for them -again us mkt participants are all expecting markets to go down -so i am more bullish that smart money will make the move -i had told everyone from past few weeks this rally will be a disbelief -fii turned net buyers -we called that play with the indication that ruppee has topped off -we called the play where indian market will decouple from the rest of the world LOOKING FORWARD -i am seen twitter timeline calling the bear market rally -if true it would have ended near 16400 -16400 was the swing high and trendline break from there we are sitting long in the position -in the channel i had discussed last week one minor hurdle remains which is the only thing stopping us from "all-time high" -we need a close above 17800-17820 on daily basis and a weekly close above it will end all matters -if a close above 17800 is achieved *we will close above major bearish trendline in nifty *a elliot wave 3 will see extension on weekly chart *we will start to extend higher *then all time high is probability increases *bold prediction will be to safe we might hit 19500-20000 by diwali FII ACTION PROVIDES MORE INCENTIVE IN HOLDING LONGS *there might be some day a knee jerk sell-off to through weak hands of the market *but observe that fii have just started buying *the amount the fii sold in 2022 if they buy back just 30% of that positions *20000 will be here in no time *crude price falling is added incentive note *the above observation are based on pure market sentiment and data driven *many traders are still in disbelief and waiting for that fall *as i have advised in my telegram channel you have missed the majority *but wait for the market to close above 17800-17820 we can start creating positional longs for diwali *special thanks to to major twitter hands and novice twitter hands for keeping them out of this rally *then advising them they are bullish now and are expecting new all-time high TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR NIFTY "need a close above 17820" RESISTANCE 17820-17955-18040 SUPPORT 17730-17600-17540 THOSE INTERESTED FOR MORE MARKET UPDATES PLESE CHECK THE LINK IN THE SIGNATURE BOX BE A PART OF THE COMMUNITY
NSE:NIFTYLong
by manavtechresearch
NIFTY/BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE LAST WEEK UPDATE -back with an weekly update again -last week market tested our expected levels of 17200 -we did not predict the clear upmove -but we were ready to pounce on the market after swing high and hidden trendline level breach of 16050 and 16420 GLOBAL UPDATE:- -last week was heavy news driven -us mkt after the double bottom breakout on major indicies saw consolidation and then big move -market wait for the fed action and after market accepted miled recession figures in the us mkt -we had discussed the dollar index topping out and dollar/inr pair -fii turning positive in july for the first time in july was an indication of ruppee bottoming out USA CHART WEEKLY NEWS UPDATES -China/taiwan tension in back in the market -according to the weekly chart in usa market could hit a pause -we will develop further action based on global sceario -still belief indian markets will outperfrom -we had discussed indian markets will decouple NIFTY INDEX TECHINICAL -i explained early that how banknifty trading above 200-dma will take nifty also above 200-dma -now we can clearly see that we have a breakaway gap in both nifty and banknifty -any sizeable correction is a just a way to enter into the markets -ideal zone for bulls will be to defend 200-dma -any move towards 17050-17080 should be a buying opporunity -watchout for levels of 17430-17550-17630 -market will require fresh triggers NIFTY SUPPORT 16970-17030-17080 NIFTY RESISTANCE 17360-17430-17550 BANKNIFTY INDEX TECHNICAL VIEW -like i had posted during the week -we did see 37500-37800 -we were able to capture atleast 2000 points in the melt-up in banknifty -on weekly chart we have a clear major trendline break -we had a target of 37800 which is done -we will wait for a move above 38200 if market sustains above it -if does then we will open up a move towards 39000-39200-39470 BNF RESISTANCE 37970-38115-38415 BNF SUPPORT 37250-36750-36300 (SUPPORT IS DEEPER)
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by manavtechresearch
2
NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATESUMMARY:- *last week we had a strong marabuzo candle on both banknifty and nifty *markets has seen tremendous short-covering rally *like we dicussed a move above 16420 will lead to 16670-16780 *we discussed major hurdles in the market as well at 16850 *we know that we will break a swing low pattern above 16850 *if a close above that is achieved we can see a smart rally towards 17225-17430 *icici bank/reliance/kotak bank all have posted results on friday *in simple words results were good but not just beat estimates in case of icici bank *note here i will explain something that sentiment traders understand -fii felt the power of "fomo"? -smart money buys when market is pessimistic -from 1.5 lac fut contracts short to 12k shorts left -ask yourself were you able to capture the rally from 16000-16750 -today retail will look to short banknifty index and kotak and icici bank -i will remain bullish i am banking on a trap -why fii now interested in buying indian market -it is smart play not "fomo" -usd/inr might see a top near 80-81 -remember rise in inr=value for fii -so when dollar falls fii turn net buyers and dii start selling the supply -this is the nature of institutional investors -icici bank has constantly beating hdfc bank in last 5 to 6 qtrs -last 3 times when icici bank result came market was in deep red and icici bank did not perfrom as per expectation -this time icici bank has makret support banknifty is rallying heavily plus a strong weekly candle -today there will short attempts in the market but if market makes the break then we are looking for a big rally MORE THINGS TO LOOK AT *we have discussed the dollar index move with the double bottom view on monthly chart *we see dollar index slowly move towards 120 *but there will be a halt in the move as price of commodities have come down sharply *if brent crude comes below 100 dollar and breaks support of 90 we will see nifty above 17000 *banknifty and nifty both now trading above 200-ema which will now turn as support also for the market *we have started decoupling from global markets CHART VIEW (NIFTY) -after hidden trendline break -i had given indication to go long -crucial resistance @16850 need a close above that -200 sma testing at 17050 will be possible -if banknifty has broken above 200 sma then so will nifty its just a matter of time -so supply zone can be considered from 16850 RESISTANCE LEVEL(ABOVE 16850) 16970-17050-17225 SUPPORT 16660-16550-16480 (BANKNIFTY) -big marabuzo candle on weekly chart -major weekly trendline breached -double bottom formation on weekly chart -short trap possible today -major supply zone from 37200-37400 RESISTANCE LEVELS 37050-37230-37420 SUPPORT LEVELS 36500-36350-36200
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
3
BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATESUMMARY: -monthly chart on banknifty is not giving good signal -global market scenario is not good for markets -upside on banknifty is capped -dollar index has made a double bottom breakout on monthly chart -index broke above 104 and giving targets of 118-120 which is showing dot.com crash levels -if dollar index and usd/inr is rising along with oil and yield prices -i am holding my view from last month we are expecting levels of 31000-30500 BULLISH VIEW -good quaterly update are coming in banking stocks -so we can expect one bounce again in banknifty -if today it fails to provide any relief then we are going down sooner or later -if banknifty sustains above 34200 i will keep a stop below 33800 -i will sit for a target of 700-1000 points -for bulls it is a good thing to wait and watch there will be clear trade above 34200 -oi data also suggesting the same
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by manavtechresearch
NIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE SUMMARY:- *us market covered and rose up on friday *today expecting some short-covering rally in nifty index *but overall the view is still bearish *remember market trend remains bearish until 16480 is taken out *we have falling trendline from the top if that breaks then we will start an uptrend *global data is not good *last week i had explained that i am expecting nifty to test 15200 *us market recession data is already accepted question is whether it soft lands or hard lands(big rate hike) *market is spooked in us mkt due to coming expectations *we are expecting a bottom in coming weeks or month *market will factor in all bad news and absorb it *i had explained this point few weeks before that Indian market will decouple from global market *it will happen sooner or later nifty technical view -crucial support has shifted from 15670-to-15550 -but demand zone remains between from 15670-15700 -nifty puts and nifty fut short made us money on friday -resistance on upside is the same 15900-15940 -safe traders wait for market to cross above 20-dma and sustain for upside move
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
NIFTY WEEKLY UPDATESUMMARY:- *index has bounced back from 15380 twice now *index today will gap-up above 15750 *index has a crucial support @15700-15670 zone *we are in a bear market rally so it can be called correction *according to swing pattern analysis this correction ends above 16800 *is nifty coming to fill up the gap and trap new longs *like we discussed pcr was oversold now if gap closes then pcr will start to enter overbrought *wall street rallied due to recession coming sooner *their markets are observing the pension funds and rebalancing *they were execpting 200 billion dollars worth of rebalancing funds *a bear market pullback rally it is clear and simple WHAT TO WATCH FROM TODAY *dont give into the rally *we will gap up alot *lots of resistance level on the upside *will market move above 20-dma *will market retest the 50-dma *if its a bear market rally index should reject those levels and move down back *watchout for auto sector shares they are in a bull zone of their own NIFTY RESISTANCE LEVELS TO WATCH 15944-16050-16160 NIFTY SUPPORT LEVELS TO WATCH 15740-15670-15550
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY WEEKLY UPDATESUMMARY DXY@104.6 USD/INR@ATH US-10Y@3.2% US MKT HAS STARTED FACTORING A RECESSION ON FRIDAY I HAD TOLD EVERYONE THAT WATCHOUT FOR ECO DATA INFLATION CAME HIGHER SO FED WILL HAVE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN AN SCEANARIO WERE JOB DATA WAS BAD AND UNEMPLOYEMENT CLAIMS ROSE WHAT DOES IT MEAN -it is an indicating of stagflation -were fed is in raising interest rate mode -and were instead of strong economic data -economic indicators are showing reversal -so in short rising rate +fall in employment +fall in growth- stagflation what about the technical -we had discussed this in prior -if we close below 16380 we will see retest or most likely a breakdown of 15750-15800 zone -if that happens then 15000 is a matter of time PLEASE READ PREVIOUS POST AND CHANNEL UPDATES ON DAILY BASIS LINK IN THE SIGNATURE BOX BELOW DXY CHART:- BANKNIFTY waiting for a test or breakout big trades will be lined up
NSE:NIFTYShort
by manavtechresearch
NIFTY WEEKLY UPDATENIFTY WEEKLY UPDATE -index has closed below crucial support of 16000 on weekly basis -last time when we close below 16000 was in aug 2021 -dollar index rising and now stable above 103 -above 105 we will see panic in usr/inr -ruppee will see further weakening -79/80 usd/inr level is expected -i had explained in earlier post the importance of rising dollar -now rising dollar is accomodated with rising crude oil price -lets measure the last swing move in nifty from 15670-18120 -index if breaks and closes below 15670 it will break the swing pattern -a crucial support arises in the zone of 15500-15600 -all are banking that market will take support at theses level -opening interest data suggesting a move towards 15000 will be opened if levels violated BANKNIFTY -finally banknifty gave up on friday and broke below support levels -banknifty again can retest very important levels of 32200-32000 -it the level from were we had major events -on the downside 31800-32000 if breaks market can test 30400-30500
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
NIFYT WEEKLY UPDATEINDEX UPDATE NIFTY -like last weekly update had explained a break below 16820 will lead to 16400-16200 -today we are opening at the lower end of the range target we had from 17430-16820 -but most traders have not been able to capture the down move in market -last weekly candle on nifty is brutal -nifty will open in strong support zone of 16200-16150 -banknifty will open near crucial support of @34200-34300 -nifty pcr is oversold -intraday bounce is expected -weekly chart indicating nifty may move towards 15500 level if it closes below 16000 -FRESH SHORTS BELOW 15950 global and currency update *dxy index like discussed above 104 is alarming *usd/inr breaking above all time high *expect financials and nbfc to be under pressure *wti curde back above 110 *US-10Y SETTLED ABOVE 3% *US MARKET ALL MAJOR INDEX HAVE BROKEN HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN NECKLINE "NOT GOOD SIGNS FOR MARKET" "STAY LIGHT IN OVERNIGHT POSITIONS NIFTY HOURLY CHART BANKNIFTY WEEKLY CHART DXY MONTHLY CHART US MKT PATTERN UPDATE
NSE:NIFTY
by manavtechresearch
NIFTY INDEX WEEKLY UPDATEINDEX UPDATE NIFTY -like explained last week 17430 and 16820 is our trading range -we may open at the lower end or even lower -dow/s&p/nasdaq all our are showing head and shoulders pattern on weekly chart -i had shared a monthly chart of dxy (dollar index) which is on the verge of giving double bottom break -us/10y are trading near 3% must not cross above that but if dxy is rising then it will also -major red signal if "S-10Y BREAKS ABOVE US-30Y" -risk of stagflation in US markets are running high now -heading towards dot.com crash levels which were seen in early 2000 -will we decouple from global shock or usa markets are factoring 4th may fomc meet -no one knows -but eventually indian market will decouple i strongly believe but first need to whether the storm -coming back to levels we must not close below 16820 on closing basis if we do we are heading lower -monthly and weekly chart are not giving a good picture -previous top was 18100 from there we came to 16825 -we started a fresh move which ended@17400 and we are expected to open below 16820 -we will start the may contract below the april month low which is indicating downside pain -so taking the previous swing from 16820-17400 as target -target below 16820 should be atleast 16400-16300 on downside -dxy above 104 will raise alarms so watch out for dollar index -on the upside in nifty unless 17430 is taken out -i do not see further upside -it would be good for markets to trade in the range of 16820-17430 -if it does trade in the range then market would have absorbed all global shocks and start its own fresh rally DXY MONTHLY CHART -its important to break above 104 for double bottom break -dow/s&p/nasdaq all our are showing head and shoulders pattern on weekly chart
NSE:NIFTY1!
by manavtechresearch