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PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 16 NOV 2022A very good trading day today, bank nifty opened in line at 42371 made a long legged doji in the 1st candle and then made 7 consecutive candles with 100pts swings in each before deciding on the direction. We had a up day today with a decent run from 09.50 to 11.30 and then a small pull back till 12.05 and then resuming the trend till 13.45. The price action from 13.50 to 14.40 looked mostly expiry related. Majority of the previous expiries were island days - the positional selling between 13.50 to 14.40 may hint that we could even have a negative day on 17th. However i am not certain as the underlying buying interest for bank nifty is pretty euphoric. There is no amount of negative data that can pull down our indices and most of the traders would be gung-ho. --- Of the major bank nifty components HDFC Bank was contributing to the index pretty strongly today, but gave up most of the gains after 13.55 Kotak bank out performed and closed the day with 2.8% gains (pretty unusual unless there is a news event which i am unaware of) ICICI even though started the day positively, fell below the yellow line by 11.35 and traded with negative bias SBIN started low, then shot up and then made a strong negative price action by 12.55 AXIS and IndusInd had negative bias today the chart pattern slope nearly matching. --- 2 Major option strategy would have worked out very well today.  Any call debit spread taken after 09.55 A far OTM call ratio spread purely for intraday ie. Buy near ATM and sell multiple lots of far OTM CE options. This would have worked mostly because of the time decay as its 1 DTE today. There was an anomaly in the way far OTM PE options reacted in the last 30mts - check the graphs for 40000, 39000, 38000 PE - the premiums were surging - i would like to see this as intense put writing as part of expiry tomorrow. This can be considered as a bullish sign and may even contradict my view of bearishness tomorrow. --- SPX is rising vs Bank nifty which is rising much more. The indices might be seen as converging but the speed at which bank nifty rising is actually creating a wider spread. SPX closed right at the resistance line of 3991 yesterday - so today's move will be interesting as it may have to pick up a direction soon. --- 15mts vs 1hr - both charts are in agreement and showing a bullish bias. Again as all the market participants are long - we cannot even rule out a quick dip anytime. --- Bank nifty support and resistance has been updated S1: 41929, S2: 41618 resistance: no resistance as at ATH --- PS: Read the standard disclaimer at: bit. ly/3Nm3RER
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
Nifty Expiry week chart set upToday we are seeing people exiting from Call options and entering Put options. In my morning post, we had mentioned Nifty PCR at 0.72 signifying oversold conditions and that Short trade should be carefully taken. We had mentioned the level to short and accordingly given exits also. We had highlighted the level of 17096 in morning to short and at lower levels when Nifty was 17020 we suggested to book profits. Trust the analysis helped. We observe Nifty trading in a downtrend channel since 6 Oct 2022. For tomorrow's expiry we would be watching and following the channel. Important levels on the upside 17160 / If we see a breakout of channel on the upside then further targets 17220 / 17260/ 17278 Important levels on the lower side 17080 / 17037 / 17006 / 16980 Trade accordingly and have realistic expectations. Take care & safe trading....!!! Like and Follow Disclaimer -The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - I have been wrong in the past and can be wrong again in future too - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTY1!
by indiamarketoutlook
Bank Nifty 33,000 Is the next spot of rest after that 30 K In our bank nifty analysis shared on 07 June we had predicted at 35,500 levels that bank nifty will hit 33,000 and if 33,000 breaks then next is 30,000. This is bank nifty chart on the daily time frame. Now, if you see on the daily time frame the price candle has broken below the Kijun and closed at 34,550 levels. Also, the chikou span or the lagging span has given the closing below the price candle. All these factors contribute towards the bearish concept of the market trend. Our all analysis is based purely on Ichimoku Trading strategy. Friends, tomorrow that is 13 June we will open Gap down at 34,000 levels. Now, 34,000 level is also a psychological support level in bank nifty. So my trade plan will be to close my short trades at 34,000 and wait for the market to retrace towards 34,300 levels where I will again add short trades. In this market scenario I will write OTM call Options or BUY In the Money Put Options.
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!Short
by KINGSFALCONTRADERS
Nifty respects Technical Analysis to perfectionOn May 13, we highlighted chart set up which indicated Nifty near possible support zone. On May 17 morning, we highlighted F&O trade data analysis which increased our confidence to stay Long.... Now results of doing our homework is in front of you... - Charts helped us identify important levels where trading decisions can be taken beforehand and - F&O data analysis gave us the confidence while in the trade... Do not ignore the importance of studies. View Going forward... Nifty rallied 417 points, however Open Interest has gone down. Let us breakdown the data and dig deeper for better understanding. F&O trade data analysis Futures - Retail traders squared off 13.16K Long position and squared off 5.59K Short position - FIIs squared off 1.29K Long contracts and squared off 13.91K Short contracts - Proprietary traders added 4.47K Long contracts and added 7.21K Short contracts Call Option - Retail traders squared off 3.53 Lakh Call Long contracts and squared off 1.68 Lakh Call Short contracts - FIIs added 35.82K Call Long contracts and squared off 16.40K Call Short position - Proprietary traders squared off 6.54K Call Long contracts and squared off 1.39 Lakh Call Short contracts Put Option - Retail traders added 9.13 Lakh Put Long contracts and added 7.06 Lakh Put Short contracts - FIIs added 48 K Put Long contracts and added 80.46K Call Short position - Proprietary traders added 1.56 K Put Long contracts and added 3.32 Lakh Put Short contracts Retail participants have bought Puts aggressively for protection. FIIs have been covering their Short positions for the last 3 days. Pro traders have been Net Short sellers in Index Futures however in Options they look likely to have hedged their overall positions through Options. View: We might see a consolidation phase now... Going forward important levels for Nifty on the lower side 16168 / 16030 / 15960 / 15860 / 15680 On the upper side 16320 / 16422 / 16505 / 16800 / 17218 are important resistance levels to watch out for Take care & safe trading...!!! Like & Follow! Disclaimer - The view expressed here is my personal view - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTY
by indiamarketoutlook
1
Weekly Market Report 03.04.22 Nifty and bank nifty had a stupendous one way run which managed to push both indices firmly in green. But is it going to be all green? Let’s analyse The global scenario has been in a cool off phase till market close on Friday but few hours after that Ukraine was kind enough to bomb a Russian Oil Facility. This was right around the time that our Hobble Finance Minister had confirmed that we had started buying some crude oil from Russia at discounted price and the fact that we would continue to do so was the icing on the cake. US had previously warned about the sanctions that might be imposed on India if we were to do. But we gave a damn and went on to do it. Even though the situation looks a bit grim, most of the effect of war has been factored in to the market already; as believed to be the case by many analysts. I don’t beg to differ from that. Take note that peace talks between two nations are in progress as per news reports and the final talk between the two supremes will take place in Turkey. US crude has dropped below 100 dollars (UK Side < 106) and this indirectly has a positive effect on Banknifty. It is negative for only one big player (Reliance) which might have a dragging effect on Nifty to some extent. Taking the data into consideration, it would be tough for Nifty and Banknifty to push beyond 18000 and 38000 this week. If you ask why, the reason would be the conviction of the call writers sitting at 17600 and 37000 who have not yet unwinded their positions. If you ask me why? I don’t know the answer. At the start of the day there were basically not much of positions made in the options except by the option sellers who play in long term options. So the market just took off into one direction and never looked back. None of the day’s high were broken. This one directional movement mainly led option sellers to write the calls at higher prices. Nevertheless, these are dynamic data and if the market shoots up too fast, these positions have to be adjusted which will add more rocket fuel to the indices. FIIs have become net buyers and have bought almost 5590 cr. This is what everyone has been waiting to see for a long time now. Why is it important? FIIs put in concentrated money in index heavy weights like Reliance and HDFC twins. This pushes the market tin such a way that the whole stock market feels a sense of bullishness driving the other stocks higher as well. 
 So what’s the problem? Problem is that we are not sure if this momentum is going to sustain or not. Classifying it as a dead cat bounce or a true one I beyond the capabilities of any analyst. How to trade? Nifty Long: Above 17783 Nifty Short: Below 17490 Banknifty Long: Above 37200/37300 Banknifty Short: Above 36800 WEEKLY OUTLOOK > In between these ranges.. maintain delta neutral strategies like short strangle. >Bias and Conviction is BULLISH > Banknifty is likely to expire below 38000 and 37581 might be a stiff resistance > Nifty is likely to expire below 18000. 17802 might be a stiff resistance > Strong Sectors are PSE, BANKING, ENERGY > Weak Sector: AUTO
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by daerontrading
'Himalayan Yogi' still active ?? Beware guys!!Folks @nse may call it a glitch. But let's all acknowledge the possibility that the 'Himalayan Yogi' may be still active. Let me remind you, this is not the first instance this year we're seeing these so called 'glitches' NSE used to switch off updating option chain on it's website or give wrong Open interest values..that too particularly on days with pretty high volatility..If you want I can give you the dates this happened. Why is this important is explained in second bullet below. These actions essentially blind a normal retail investor, while the 'big bad wolves' get time to position themselves perfectly for the kill. I know this post will get views (bcoz of the title), so let me mention 2 important things here Did anyone notice the similarity in index movements this year with 2020 ?? Just plot 2 time series together, the index for the following time lines 01/01/2020 - 31/03/2020 03/01/2022 - 7/03/2022 Let me know if you still think Markets are random and not 'managed' :) If you haven't already realized yet, let me tell you the real action is the F&O space (a zero sum game). This is a killing field for the institutions. They've the capital to write options, and they've the capital to move markets and create volatility to safeguard their positions. And hence the 'volatility' you see every week. I can go on on this, but I'm hoping you're smart to understand what this all means. Coming back to Nifty Target 1 is achieved. Day started below this target of 15900, and it acted as a resistance for now. Although there is a possibility of a pull back, I think Nifty may fall further towards Target 2 (15250-15300) 15900 should be Stop Loss when you short the index There will be pull backs now and then, so you can go long but you've to be really careful with a strict SL. If LTCG is not a concern for you, just exit. There is a very high high 'chance' you can buy them cheaper later on. For now, it's a sell on rise market. While you're here, feel free to check the idea I posted yesterday :D Frankly, I expected it'll take time to reach the first Target. Good Luck and STay safe. Disclaimer - The view expressed here are my personal views. We're not SEBI registered Analysts. - Always have a STOP LOSS, particularly when you trade options. - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTY
by nifty_futures_options
Few Pointers..on the Black LineBefore we start, do you notice any news outlet talking about COVID recently ?? :) Back to the idea now. Tomorrow's expiry, so expect some volatility. Lots of options will go worthless as usual.. The chart set up is exactly same as my previous post. The Black Line - Why it's interesting ? Support line for 2022 - This trading year, Nifty closed above this line everyday, except for last Thursday. Resistance line for 2021 - The line acted as a resistance in 2021 (last quarter) 4 trading days ago(last Thursday), the index ended below the black line. Last 3 trading days, Nifty opened below this line, but smartly ended above this line, all 3 times. So, it does make some sense to track Nifty's movement around this line, and use the line as a SL. My suggestion: Go long above this line, but keep the line as SL Short below this line, but keep the line as SL The trading range is 16400 - 16985. Now Thursday's closing below the line, I don't want to see it as an anomaly yet, I see it more of a hint of what's going to come in future, that the support will be tested again and eventually broken. Not sure when.. Good Luck and STay safe. Disclaimer - The view expressed here are my personal views. We're not SEBI registered Analysts. - Always have a STOP LOSS, particularly when you trade options. - Past performance is not a guarantee for future predictions - Use this for educational purpose - Any decision you take, you need to take responsibility for the same - It's your hard earned money. Treat it wisely - Trade / Invest keeping in mind your trading style, goals and objectives, time horizon & risk tolerance - if trading in F&O, understand that F&O trading involves risk - Do take proper risk management measures - Do your own analysis and consult your financial adviser if need be
NSE:NIFTY
by nifty_futures_options