Nifty Today: “Winds of Change” - 24 Feb’22
Nifty View: A very big breakdown for the Nifty index in today's trading session as it lost over 800 points to post a close at 16,247. It was a big gap down, and throughout the day's trade, the index did not offer any significant signs of recovery. Needless to say, a majority of the stocks and sectors closed deep in the red territory losing anything between 5-10%. The immediate and intermediate trends were anyways down for quite some time, and with today's fall, it is the long-term trend that is under threat for a reversal. Strategically, these are not the best of times for a short-term trader; keeping in mind the recent spike in volatility and from now on also, a higher degree of volatility is likely to persist. Focus more on capital protection rather than chasing stocks and returns, and it is a prudent idea to wait for the dust to settle before you start trading aggressively again, especially on the long side.
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Nifty Today: “No Nifty, No Cry” - 23 Feb’22 Nifty View: Disappointing close from the Nifty index in today's trade as it slipped over 150 points from its intraday high of 17,218 to manage to close marginally above the psychological 17K mark. The index failed to hold on to its early gains and continues to stay in a downtrend across the short-term and intermediate timeframe. Sectoral indices were nicely divided among gainers and losers, and we finally saw some bounce back from the broader markets like the small and midcap indices. But in terms of the underlying trend, momentum and the overall sentiment, equity as an asset class continues to stay under pressure. If you are predominantly a long-only trader, then it is advisable to stay in the sidelines and wait for the trend to reverse.
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Nifty Today: “Banks Underperformed ” - 17 Feb’22 Nifty View: In today's trading session, banking stocks were the culprit as the Nifty index lost close to 50 points to post a close at 17,266. The underlying trend of the Nifty is still very much down, and after today's negative close, it has confirmed a lower high and lower low on the daily timeframe - this means that the probability of the downside is marginally higher than a bounce back. Any bounce back from the current levels needs to be meaningful enough and has to take out the immediate resistance of 17,500 for any possibility of serious upsides. Unless that happens, the selling pressure will likely persist.
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Nifty Today: “Lunatic” - 15 Feb’22 Nifty View: In today's trading session, it was a big 500+ points recovery from the Nifty benchmark index. This brings in a lot of volatility to the overall market conditions considering that the index had lost over 500 points in yesterday's trade. Nevertheless, even after today's bounce back, the underlying short-term and intermediate trend of the index is still down. And so, as we advance, the benchmark Nifty will have to deal with immediate resistances before it confirms a short-term trend reversal. Strategically these are challenging times to time the market, especially for short-term traders. And so I suggest that keeping a low profile and trading less with lesser quantity is a better proposition rather than going aggressive.
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Nifty Today: “Todun Taak” - 14 Feb’22
Nifty View: Significant fall for the Indian equity markets in today's session, the benchmark Nifty index loses more than 500 points to post a close at 16,809. The short-term trend of the index is now down again, and considering the momentum with which the index corrected today, it is very likely that the selling will extend further this week. Today's close across most of the sectoral indices and most of the large-cap stocks were pretty weak, near the lowest point of the day, and so it will be prudent to wait out a few days for the selling to slow down and then try to attempt any long trades, if at all.
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Nifty Today: “A Confident Close” - 09 Feb’22
Nifty View: The recent bounce back extends further, with the benchmark Nifty index gaining more than 200 points in today's trading session. The intraday charts are improving as the index now deals with the immediate resistance zone of 17,450-17,550. Support from the Banking and Auto sector continues. From now on, the most critical aspect for the rest of this week will be whether it will be able to break out above 17,550 and move back into a short-term uptrend or not. A failure to do so, will bring back selling pressure in the overall market next week. We should not forget that based on the daily timeframe, the underlying trend is still weak, and many sectoral indices are also in a downtrend. So one should not be aggressively bullish in this market condition.
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Nifty Today: “Bounce Back Indeed, But too early to call a BottomNifty View: Benchmark Nifty index managed a healthy bounce back in today's trading session. At a close of 17,273 the index managed a marginal positive gain of just 54 points but what was more encouraging was a healthy bounce back from the intraday low of 17,048. At this low, the index is teasing the psychological level of 17,000, a break below which can bring in new weakness. On the upside, the confluence of residences now stands close to the 17,450 mark. It will be important to observe in the next few trading sessions whether the index shows the strength to carry itself further and break above the immediate resistance zone.
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Nifty Today: “Fresh Weakness” - 07 Feb’22
Nifty View: The benchmark Nifty index loses more than 300 points in today's trade. With this fall, the index goes back to an underlying downtrend which increases the probability of further downsides. But considering the fact that the intraday charts are stretched on the downside, we should not discount a short-term bounce back before any kind of further weakness. In case we notice any such short term bounce back, it will be essential for the nifty to break above the immediate resistance zone of 17,450–70,550. Unless this hundred point range is taken out by the index, one should continue to stay bearish in the market and expect further selling. Strategically this is not the best time to go aggressively bullish, and so it will be prudent enough to stay on the sidelines or create bearish opportunities.
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Nifty 27Jan'22: Possible Double Bottom on the intraday charts Another negative close from the Nifty benchmark index today – losing 173 points to post a close at 17,110. The day's loss could have been worse, but thanks to the banking and financial stocks, especially the public sector ones, which led to a phenomenal upward momentum leading to a decent bounce back for the Nifty index from its intraday low of 16,862. The underlying short-term trend of the index is down, and its the intermediate trend which is now vulnerable for a reversal. Many sectors like IT, Pharma and Media have already turned down on its intermediate timeframe and can be looked at as shorting opportunities. We have an early sign of a double bottom reversal pattern on the intraday charts of benchmark Nifty, and so this can lead to some bounce back, if at all, in the following few training sessions. However, that does not mean that strategically one should go aggressively bullish; on the other hand, one should be extra careful as the degree of underlying volatility is still exceptionally high.
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Nifty 25Jan'22: Deal with the roller coaster ride Strong selloff for the Nifty benchmark index over the last five trading sessions, during which the index on a high to low basis has lost close to 9%. The short-term trend, thanks to this selloff, has gone down but the intermediate and long-term charts are still holding on to its uptrend. We did manage to observe some bounce back from its intraday lows, and so the vital question from now on is whether we see any further bounce back or not. The best-case scenario from the current price is another 150–250 points rally, and as long as the level of 17,600 is not taken out, the selling pressure will persist. Sectoral indices like Pharmaceuticals, IT and FMCG have broken below their recent November–December lows. And on the other side, sectors like Auto and Energy are showing good relative strength. So strategically, one should continue to look for trades in either direction and for longs, preferably from those sectors which are relatively stronger.
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Nifty Today: “Runaway or Exhaustion?” - 12 Jan’22 The rally continues for the benchmark Nifty index as it gains another 157 points in today's trade to post a close at 18,241. A look at the last ten trading sessions, and we notice that eight of these have been positive closes - such has been the strength and resilience of this recent uptrend. Most sectors and heavyweight stocks have also participated in this rally, but we start to notice very early signs of momentum slowdown in the Nifty and the BankNifty. Strategically one should stay on the bullish side but should not add long positions aggressively for the rest of this week. Amongst the large-cap banking stocks, it is HDFCBank which has created a bearish pattern on the daily charts alongside price momentum divergence. And so, going forward, this banking heavyweight can slow down the gains from bank nifty and probably the overall pack.
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Don't Diddle in the Middle Market Analysis for 10.11.21 (Tuesday )
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* Nifty 50 *
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Support Area Resistance Area
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1st Support Area : 16229.35-16241.70 | 1st Resistance Area : 16267.35-16287.10
2nd Support Area : 16176.10-16195.95 | 2nd Resistance Area : 16321.25-16338.35
* Nifty Bank *
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Support Area Resistance Area
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1st Support Area : 39187.30-39224.90 | 1st Resistance Area : 39503.40-39559.95
2nd Support Area : 38936.15-38982.85 | 2nd Resistance Area : 39717.05-39773.50
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Expectation : As for tomorrow we are expecting a Positive Nifty & BankNifty.
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Jai Hind.
Disclaimer:
This video is only for educational purposes. Please consult your financial advisor before you take any trades. I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst.
Mentorship InstaView 02 Nov’21: A Day to Consolidate Nifty View: Today's 85 points negative close from the Nifty benchmark index is more of a consolidation post the big +293 points gain we experienced yesterday. The short term trend is still DOWN with immediate resistance at the psychological 18K mark, which has held the index down pretty well. One should continue with a conservative bias and wait for the index to show some more strength, and the first sign of that will be a retest of 18K. If we fail to see this anytime soon, then the chances of an extension on the downside increase. So trade light & with caution.
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Mentorship InstaView 01 Nov’21: Impressive
Nifty View: Benchmark Nifty index impresses with a near 300 points gain in today's trading session. It was a move that was supported well by most of the sectors and heavyweight stocks. In terms of levels, the index at a close of 18,008 will now deal with the immediate short term resistance at the psychological 18K mark. In fact, a closer look at the volume profile and vwap reflects that it is (18,100-18,150) which can act as a stronger resistance for the index. Let us stay cautiously bullish and observe whether the index manages to sustain above 18,000.
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Mentorship InstaView 27 Oct’21: Disappointing yet Hopeful
Nifty View: The Nifty benchmark index disappointed in the final hours of today’s session as it slipped below the 18,200 mark to bounce back marginally at the end. Because we had a solid close yesterday, the index showed no follow-through buying today as it could not make a higher high today. On the contrary, it slips to test the immediate short term support range of (18,200-18,250). We are now at an exciting juncture, and the price action in the subsequent two sessions will add a lot of clarity to the next directional movement.
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Mentorship InstaView 25 Oct’21: Volatility makes a Comeback
Nifty View: Volatility kicks in as the benchmark Nifty index oscillates sharp in today’s trade. At an intraday low of 17,986, the index momentarily broke below the psychological 18K mark, but closed fairly well at 18,145. The underlying short term trend of the index has now turned non-directional but definitely volatile. BankNifty continues to outperform by a significant margin thanks for ICICIBANK which was up over 12% in today’s trade. Considering the spike up in intraday volatility, it’ll be sensible to slow down and trade less or trade with relatively lesser risk.
Please watch the video for a detailed analysis of the index and stocks.
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Mentorship InstaView 21 Oct’21: Banks Save the Day
Nifty View: A decently volatile day for the benchmark Nifty50 index as it closed down a little over 60 points in today's session. So far, we have three consecutive negative days from the index, losing almost 3% on a high to low basis. The short-term trend is still up, but vulnerable as the index nears the psychological level of 18,000. However it was clearly the banking stocks which saved the day today. Banknifty index was up over 1% led by strong performance from stocks like Kotak Bank and ICICI Bank. Strategically, let's continue with the bullish bias and be careful especially if we are trying to trade mid and small cap stocks. It will be prudent if we focus more on the large gaps at this juncture in the market. Please watch the video for a detailed analysis of the index and stocks.
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