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EURUSD has bumpy road to north even as bulls keep the reinsA two-month-old ascending trend channel backs the EURUSD pair’s upside bias, despite multiple failures to cross the 1.0880 horizontal hurdle in the last week. That said, the 50-SMA and the 100-SMA restrict immediate downside around 1.0790 and 1.0700 respectively. Following that, the stated bullish channel could be at the test and hence the 1.0575 support will gain major attention. Should the quote drops below 1.0575, a slump toward the monthly low near 1.0480 appear imminent while any further downside won’t hesitate to challenge the lows marked during November. Meanwhile, a successful break of the one-week-old horizontal resistance near 1.0880 isn’t an invitation for the bulls as the top line of the aforementioned channel, close to 1.0910, will act as the last defense of the EURUSD bears. In a case where the pair rises past 1.0910, it could quickly rise to the 1.1000 round figure. It’s worth noting that January 2022 low and the late March 2022 high, respectively around 1.1125 and 1.1185, might probe the pair buyers before giving them full control. Overall, EURUSD stays inside a bullish chart formation and the oscillators are positive too. However, the upside momentum lacks acceptance and hence buyers should remain cautious.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD holds onto bullish bias targeting 1.2450GBPUSD retreats from a one-month-old broad resistance area surrounding 1.2210-40 as the Cable traders brace for the UK data dump on Friday. The quote’s sustained trading beyond the convergence of the 50-SMA and 100-SMA, around 1.2070-65 at the latest, joins upbeat oscillators to keep the pair buyers hopeful of overcoming the key horizontal resistance zone. Following that, the previous monthly high surrounding 1.2450 could lure the bulls. It should be noted, however, that the pair’s successful trading above 1.2450 enables the bulls to aim for the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) level of the pair’s moves between November 2022 and early January 2023, close to 1.2645. Meanwhile, GBPUSD sellers will need a clear downside break of the aforementioned SMA confluence, near 1.2070-65, for conviction. In that case, the 1.2000 psychological magnet and the monthly low of 1.1841 should lure the bears. If at all the Cable pair remains bearish past 1.1841, a downward trajectory towards the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the quote’s November-December 2022 moves, near 1.1800 and 1.1645 respectively, can be expected. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to remain on the front foot unless the price stays beyond 1.2065 levels.
by MTradingGlobal
NIFTY-Weekly Views- Bears back with black beltNifty saw a steep fall thereby making the decline for the third consecutive week. The weekly candle formation is a strongly bearish one. Being a Technical sell-off the momentum was higher and the reversal if it happens also could be sharper if short covering happens. Nifty is still showing signs of weakness ahead of the year end. A few observations from the weekly charts are: Weekly charts suggest that The index moved around 462 points viz. between 17779 and 18473 the oscillators are showing negative bias Option OI is expected to drive the market direction The Index made lower highs and lower lows and it ended up with a bearish candle Expected scenarios for the ensuing week Though closed at 17806, the Index is expected to open higher As expected the Index moved lower towards the major support at 17860 and with the momentum it breached this support extended the loss to 17779 The final hope lies at 177770 and further breach could lead to weakness towards 17400 Further the weekly closing is near the lows which is supportive of the negative bias. Going forward the 18250-18420 zone, though far-off for now, is likely to be a major barrier For the ensuing week, the index may find supports at 17770, 17660, 17540 and the index could face resistances at 17960, 18080, 18180 and 18270 Additional interesting observations In spite of the sharp fall the FIIs and DIIs seem to be net positive (possibly fresh position Building) Two possible scenarios Expected range of 17560-18150 or 17770-18360 Any close outside the range of 17560-18360 requires re-assessment of risk Final Note A new Gap has been created viz. 18127-17977. There may be an attempt to fill this gap at a time when reversal happens. In this down move we have seen a Gaps (18272-18088 & 18909-17786) which were created during the up move got filled It so happens that when a long term trend line is breached and the prices reach a new peak, there would be profit booking which brings down the price as close to the break-out levels. We are currently in this scenario and we as expected the move dragged the NIFTY well past expected 17960 The lows of 17779 match with the Fib projection of third wave of the down move starting from 18887 to 18415 and then up move to 18700 If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1108 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035 Index at 18800, the markets were looking for 19500 and at 17800 markets may talk about 16500 We are in to a tuff situation and the sentiments are negative. Till we see a daily close above 18170 there would be selling pressure on every spike and there exists a risk of deeper correction towards 16500 if weekly close is below 17500 This week will be crucial to see whether we finally end up in a bear cycle towards 16500 There are higher possibilities of churning of portfolio Seasons Greetings and Best wishes for a Happy New Year 2023 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
NSE:NIFTY
by SYFXTF
Bank Nifty-- Weekly ViewsThe sell-off in Bank Nifty continued for the second week with a stronger momentum resulting in the Index testing a low of 41600. Technically the break below 43100 triggered the down move. Break below 42200 is still a sign of bearishness. We see the Index continuing to move in a channel with top at 44600 and lower end at 41800 with a pivot at 43100. The weekly candle coupled with the Oscillators paint a negative picture. There may be hurdles at 42900-43100 range. This week is crucial to see whether the Bank Nifty breaks the crucial channel support at 41700-41800 zone or holds. The scenario for now is negative till we see a close able 43K. It appears that the Bank Nifty is likely to continue in a wider range of 41700-44200 with 43100 as pivot and a breach and close above or below could see the next range of 900 points. For now, 41700 is the crucial level to be watched. And break on a closing basis would mean there is deeper correction ahead towards 40685 and then to 39800. A daily close outside the broader range indicated above would require re-evaluation. Note: Tough times ahead as we see a bit of slow-down in the pace of advancement and a tuff barrier seen around 42900-43100 range. Need to exercise caution. PSU banks may provide opportunities for Fresh entry levels on a deeper correction. Seasons Greetings and Best wishes for a Happy New Year 2023 Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by SYFXTF
USDJPY prints bear flag as Bank of Japan gains attentionUSDJPY is likely to end 2022 on a negative note, despite bracing for the biggest yearly run-up since 2013. However, the Yen pair portrays a bearish chart pattern, a bear flag on the four-hour play as traders keep their eyes on the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Given the downbeat oscillators and hawkish expectations from the BOJ, the bearish chart formation amplifies the downside expectations. As a result, bears could wait for a clear downside break of 134.90, to refresh the monthly low of 133.60. In that case, the August 2020 low near 130.40 and the 130.00 psychological magnet will gain major attention during the south run aiming for the theoretical target surrounding 120.00. Meanwhile, the top line of the stated bear channel, close to 138.50, restricts short-term USDJPY recovery moves. A clear upside break of the same will defy the bearish chart pattern and could poke the 200-SMA surrounding 140.80. In a case where the Yen pair buyers manage to cross the last hurdle, namely the 200-SMA, late November swing high near 142.25 and the 145.20 resistance could flash on their radars. Overall, USDJPY is on the bear’s radar after two years of a bullish move.
by MTradingGlobal
#Markets a head! #Nifty 50 #Bearish mat hold patternMounting recession worries amid aggressive policy tightening by major central banks lead to a global recession risk next year. Market discounting the risk and have fallen over 3% from its 52% high. Week ahead It will be a busy week in the US with the most important releases including the PCE price index, personal income and spending, CB, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment and durable goods orders. Elsewhere, Japan and Canada will release inflation data and the Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting. Also, investors will follow German’s Ifo Business Climate, and consumer confidence readings from Euro Area and UK, and Germany. Technically Support levels will be 18220/18043/17860, worse case will be 17680 Resistance levels will be 18516/18800/19042 Option chain Put OI: 18000 have maximum Put OI of 5.4Mn which is likely to give additional support to nifty Call OI: While, 8.7Mn Call OI at 18600 will resist the market. Oscillators RSI: 26.384 (Suggest bearishness) MACD(12,26) : -70 (Suggest sell) ADX(14): 65.780 (Suggest sell) ATR(14): 60.9967 (Highly volatile)
NSE:NIFTYShort
by CA_Chetanbhasin
#Markets a head!US Markets The Dow Jones closed 150 points on Friday as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy. US 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to a 7-week low of 3.6595%, after meeting minutes released the Federal Reserve's meeting showed a potential slowdown in interest rate hikes Week Ahead In the US, the labor report will take the central stage followed by speeches by several Fed officials, 2nd estimate of GDP growth, ISM manufacturing PMI, CB consumer confidence, and personal income and spending. European Markets The accounts of the central bank's October policy meeting showed, European Central Bank policymakers agreed that the central bank should continue normalizing and tightening monetary policy to combat high inflation. The Euro jumped to $1.04 after FOMC minutes suggested the Fed will soon start slowing the pace of rate increases. Week Ahead Investor to brace the Inflation numbers for Euro Area, Germany, France, Italy, Spain. Indian Markets After a consolidation in the previous week, the Indian market followed its global counterparts and resumed its uptrend and ended 1 percent higher in the previous week. Week ahead The focus will shift to domestic cues as monthly auto sales numbers and second quarter GDP data will likely to keep the Investor busy. Technically Nifty to face the resistance at the all-time high levels 18664 sustaining above can take the markets to 18880 while 18080 to act as a strong support. On the oscillators the data is positive with RSI at 71.6, MACD at 51.6. Derivative data suggest 18500 with 32Mn call OI and 27Mn Put OI to act as a critical zone to break followed by 18300 to act as a critical support zone with 144K Put OI added on Friday session.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by CA_Chetanbhasin
#Nifty Market outlook Market outlook (7th Nov to 11th Nov) US market closed the 1% up following a volatile session on Friday after mixed jobs report. Fed Collins hinted that the pace of future increases could be smaller but did not rule out another 75 bps hike in December. US Market Ahead: Inflation data will be closely watched by the investors followed by several speeches by the Fed officials and midterm elections European Markets: The euro edged up toward $0.99, as investors expects pivot despite Powell’s hawkish tone. Elsewhere, the ECB is set to tighten monetary policy further as inflation persists at higher level than expected. European markets ahead: Investors will brace the UK Q3 GDP growth rate, Eurogroup meeting, retail sales & S&P global construction PMI for the Area Indian markets edged higher despite Fed's guidance on future rate hikes supported by metals after China’s statement of planning its transition away from its zero-Covid policy. In addition, India’s Manufacturing PMI edged above expectation to 55.3 in October 2022. Indian markets ahead: Markets likely to open on positive sentiment amid better-than-expected results of India’s largest bank- SBI that reported 74% increase in Net profit on YoY basis. In absence of Domestic cues, market to act on Global Indicators and Q2 earnings Technically Nifty showing positive momentum on oscillators with closing above at breakout of cup & holder formation 18390/ 18592 to act as a resistance zone while resistance will remain 18080 followed by the derivate support level of 18000 where 8.6Mn put writers will be supporting the Index.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by CA_Chetanbhasin
Ultratech CementThe Infra sector has been in the limelight and is seen outperforming broader markets. Nifty Infra index is at the cusp of breaking above last one year range. Within the Infra space we expect the cement stocks to witness catch up activity, among the large cap cement stocks our preferred pick is Ultratech cement which we expect to outperform The stock has generated a breakout above the falling supply line joining highs signalling resumption of the up move and offers fresh entry opportunity The base of the recent consolidation is placed at the 50 days EMA currently placed at | 6385 highlighting positive price structure We expect the stock to head towards | 7290 levels in the coming weeks being the 123.6% external retracement of the September 2022 decline (7029- 6005) Among oscillators daily MACD has generated a buy signal and is moving above zero line thus validates positive bias CMP 6728.25 BuyRange 6722-6730Target 6782/6844 Stop Loss 6664.00
NSE:ULTRACEMCOLong
by tusharvispute1
DXY next move (waiting for the outcome to FOMC meeting)Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly, TECHNICAL- 👍-The Price has broken the bullish structure. waiting for the outcome of FOMC meeting scheduled on 02.11.2022 before entering in to Sell or Buy. 👍-there are little Buying opportunities as the Major Oscillators indicators are in oversold zone. -------Remember------ 1. We are not going to take any position in DXY pair until the prices reach to support zone or Major trendline displayed in the chart. 2. if FED, on 02.11.2022, during FOMC Meeting, hikes the interest rate at least by 50BPS, then we will play Buy in this pair with TP 114.000 & 115.000 3.If FED does during FOMC does not raise the interest rate, then we will wait for the price to be consolidated on the area mentioned in chart. If price consolidated above major trendline we will place buy and if the price break major trendline we will place sell with target of 108 & 107. Best of luck👍👍👍👍 Never risk 2% of principal to follow any position. Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly Support us by liking and sharing the post 💗💗💗
TVC:DXY
by AnupZiddi
EURUSD signals further downside, 0.9670 in focusAfter staying off the bear’s radar during the first two days of the week, EURUSD returned to the red zone as it broke the weekly support line. The trend line breakdown joins downbeat oscillators to keep sellers hopeful of meeting an upward-sloping trend line support from September 28, around 0.9670. The quote’s further downside, however, will be challenged by the monthly low of 0.9631, a break of which could quickly drag prices towards the multi-year low marked in the last month around 0.9535. Alternatively, the support-turned-resistance around 0.9840 guards the immediate recovery moves. However, a convergence of 200-SMA and a five-week-old descending resistance line, close to 0.9855, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bulls. It should be noted, though, that the pair’s successful break of 0.9855 will open the doors for the run-up toward challenging the monthly peak surrounding the parity mark that seems the last defense of the bears. Overall, EURUSD has already welcomed the bears but the party appears a small one unless breaking 0.9670.
by MTradingGlobal
Rising wedge challenges USDCAD bulls below 1.4000USDCAD retreats from the highest level in 29 months as bulls appear to run out of steam. That being said, the recent moves of oscillators and the rising wedge bearish formation on the top teases sellers at the multi-month top. However, a clear downside break of the stated pattern’s support line, around 1.3930 by the press time, as well as the smashing of the 100-SMA level of 1.3695, becomes necessary for the bears. Following that, a south-run towards the monthly low near 1.3500 seems quick on the way to the theoretical target of 1.3400. Alternatively, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the USDCAD pair’s moves between September 14 and October 05, around 1.3935, could lure the intraday buyers ahead of the aforementioned wedge’s top, close to the 1.4000 psychological magnet. In a case where the quote stays firmer past 1.4000, the 78.6% FE level near 1.4050 could challenge the upside momentum before directing the bulls towards the May 2020 peak surrounding 1.4175. Overall, USDCAD grinds higher inside a bearish chart formation to appear risky for the fresh long positions.
by MTradingGlobal
Is it time for South to "Swing" North?Thesis: Long term-Elliot Wave Analysis of South India bank reveals a possible long term ABC correction to Fib 50-61% levels with positive divergences developing on the long term momentum indicators and oscillators like RSI showing strength coupled with volume on key break-out levels. The breakout might be the start of new up-trend with a new cycle of impulse up-waves. Possible Strategy: Go "Long" at current levels (8-8.2) for a possible swing trade target to 9 levels (Fib. 23.6% retracement level) with stop loss below 7.7 levels (below the Daily Bollinger Band/ swing low). The levels offer a 2:1 Reward:Risk ratio. Holding period could be a few days. Manage Risk. Trade Well. Cheers N$
NSE:SOUTHBANKLong
by CANick
USDJPY rebound has limited upside roomUSDJPY bounced off 131.25-50 horizontal support area despite multiple failures to cross the 50-DMA, not to forget the monthly resistance line. The recovery moves, however, appear to lack support from the oscillators, which in turn suggests another play of inability to cross the aforementioned key hurdles. Even if the quote manages to cross the one-month-old resistance line and the 50-DMA, respectively near 134.60 and 135.30, the monthly high around 135.60 and June’s peak of 137.00 will be tough challenges for the pair buyers to keep the reins. Meanwhile, a four-month-old horizontal support area close to 131.25-50, comprising the 100-DMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of May-July upside, becomes a tough nut to crack for the USDJPY bears. In a case where the pair drop below 131.25, the monthly bottom of 130.40 and the 130.00 psychological magnet will be important supports for the sellers to watch. Overall, USDJPY consolidates the previous monthly fall but the road to the total recovery is a bumpy one.
by MTradingGlobal
IRCTC - Bullish view (Inverted H&S,BB, Trend reversal) Breakout Candle with below features :- Key factor :- Dow theory reversal with HH & HL on hourly chart, Bullish divergence on oscillators (RSI,MACD, Stochastic) 1) Breaking out Angular trend line 2) Breaking out Head and shoulder Neckline 3) Challenging Upper Bollinger band 4) DI+ crossing DI- with ADX above 20 5) High Volume 6) RSI - 66.02 7) ema crossover 5>13>26 and candle crossing up 50 ema 8) Eaten up 3 bearish candles with major resistance B1,B2,B3 Entry :- Around Rs. 625-630 in Bullish candle after retesting Target 1 :- Rs. 692 -712 Target 2 :- Rs. 766 (May be another trade on another resistance around Rs.700) If we exclude 3 outlier- data points on top of the chart it has retraced 61% and we can expect it to rise up to 38% of top in single run which is around Rs. 712 Disclaimer: This is for information and educational purposes only, not any recommendations to buy or sell. I am not SEBI registered, please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
NSE:IRCTCLong
by Vaibhav_Gujar
2
Perfect Price Action: GravitaNSE:GRAVITA Gravita is looking perfect on charts. With strong bullish probability one can go long with this stock. Stock is at the Support zone. Support Supports this Stock: Price is bouncing from this price zone for the past three times. This acts as a perfect Support zone for the Stock. Mentioned in green arrows. With a green rectangle. Stock is Trending: Oscillators show the bullish sentiment by raising from the Oversold region. Can refer to the bottom strip on the chart where you can see a line raising from levels of 20. Anything below 20 is called an oversold zone and above 80 is called an overbought zone. Price Action and Candle Stick Pattern: Previous day candle has formed Hammer Pattern and the next candle has engulfed it with a strong green candle. This is a bullish sign for the stock.
NSE:GRAVITALong
by Mr_Financial_Literate
2
Gold fades bearish channel breakout above $1,700Gold fails to extend the post-ECB rebound from yearly low, not to mention unable to extend the bearish channel breakout. Given the metal’s sustained trading below the key SMA and the recently downbeat oscillators, the bullion is likely to remain pressured. Hence, sellers can see the latest bounce as an opportunity until the quote stays below the 100-SMA level surrounding $1,745. Following that, a downward sloping resistance line from June 13 and a horizontal area from mid-May, respectively around $1,768 and $1,785-87, will be the final defenses for bears. On the contrary, pullback moves could aim for the two-week-old descending trend channel’s upper line, previous resistance around $1,708 before the $1,700 threshold and the latest lows lows surrounding $1,680 can entertain gold bears. It’s worth noting, however, that the aforementioned channel’s support line, at $1,668 by the press time, will precede the mid-April 2020 low near $1,660 to challenge the metal’s further downside. Overall, gold bears remain in the driver’s seat despite the corrective pullback as traders brace for July’s PMIs and July 26-27 Fed meeting.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MTradingGlobal
NIFTY ANALYSIS AND INTRADAY PICKSNIFTY ON 17-07-2022 As expected NIFTY began the session on a positive note and continued northward journey toward the crucial level of 16300. IT, METAL and BANK emerged to be the highest gainers with 3.19%, 2.49% and 1.95% while after a long rally FMCG and PHARMA closed with marginal losses of -0.09% and -0.15%. NIFTY closed near day high at 16278.50 with a gain of 1.43% on daily chart. Technical View : (Daily Chart) NIFTY has made a strong Bullish candle which indicates that there are high chances of follow up buying during tomorrow’s trading session. NIFTY is moving above EMA 13, 21, 34. However, EMA 21<EMA 13<EMA100 which can be interpreted as the short term trend is still not in the positive territory. RSI is near 60 level (59.20) which indicates that a positive momentum is built up in NIFTY. Support and Resistance : Daily Chart NIFTY has strong support near in the range of 16200-16145. On the upper side NIFTY will face resistance in the range of 16408-16495 . View for Traders: Technically the chart structure, oscillators and indicators all are pointing in one direction and that is north. However, the derivatives data tells a different story. As per the derivatives data the maximum open interest is at 16300 which will prove to be a great hurdle to cross under present circumstances.* *Source: www.moneycontrol.com Hence, for tomorrow’s session the make-or-break level is 16300. As, if NIFTY succeeds to sustain this level, there are high chances that NIFTY will move towards 16400-16500. However, any violation of this will drag back the Index towards 16200-16150. Hence, traders may buy NIFTY via two different approaches which are as follow: 1. Either the buyer should look for buying opportunity in the range of 16200-16150. The probable targets are 16250 and 16300. SL should be placed below 16000 on closing basis. 2. Or the buyer should buy if NIFTY crosses 16300 and sustains decisively. In this case the target will be 16400 and 16500. SL may be placed below 16200 on closing basis. The sellers must take a chance near 16300 if NIFTY fails to sustain 16300. In this case the target will be 16200-16150. The SL will be near 16400. Or, the sellers must take a chance near 16408 with SL of 16500 on closing basis. In this case the target will be 16300-16250. TOMORROW’S INTRADAY PICKS 1. AXIS BANK Buy in the range of 685-689 Target 1 :697 and Target 2: 704 SL 680. 2. ROUTE MOBILE Buy in the range of 1329-1336. Target 1: 1353 and Target 2: 1360 SL : 1320
NSE:NIFTY
by VipulCIL
1
ITC breakout with volume and Elliot wave countsThis stock has been under performer most of times, but now the way chart is formed is a good sign for bulls, now it may do out perform against market also. On daily time frame it has given good breakout along with good intensity of volumes, also trend indicators and oscillators are in favor to go long, Overall wave structure is also suggesting same bias as a bullish views. Some highlights are shared below as a snapshots. Breakout with good intensity of volume on daily chart Wave counts and all the key levels are mentioned on chart, along with stoploss and targets. MACD in weekly positive above zero line MACD in daily positive, uptick and above zero line RSI breakout on daily along with uptick above 60 & 70 levels RK's mass psychological cloud and RK's stop line both are suggesting to go long Price is above upper Bollinger band in daily chart, good momentum can be seen ahead DMI and ADX in daily chart both are in favor to go long, both are positive Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Disclaimer. I am not sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
NSE:ITCLong
by RK_Chaarts
2
GBPUSD braces for fresh 2022 low with eyes on Fed, BOEA clear downside break of the six-week-old horizontal support keeps GBPUSD bears hopeful of further south-run ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meetings. That said, 1.2255-50 appears immediate support for the cable ahead of the yearly low surrounding 1.2150. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s sustained downturn past 1.2160 could make it vulnerable to further declines toward the 1.2000 psychological magnet. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March to May moves, near 1.1950, might lure the bears. Alternatively, recovery remains elusive until the quote remains below the recently broke support-turned-resistance, around 1.2400-2410. Even if the GBPUSD prices rise beyond 1.2410, a downward sloping trend line from February and the 50-DMA, respectively near 1.2570 and 1.2640, will be in focus. It’s worth mentioning that the pair’s successful run-up beyond the 50-DMA needs validation from May’s high near 1.2665 to convince the buyers. Overall, GBPUSD is ready to extend the latest downward trajectory but the oscillators may test the bears and so do the central bankers. Hence, traders’ discretion appears more required.
by MTradingGlobal