Get started

Sp500index

06 Sep 2024 - Nifty loses 380 pts, will Bear attack start now ?Nifty Stance Neutral ➡️ Nifty has only fallen 379.95pts ~ 1.5% this week and it is pretty early to go bearish, but the structure gives a lot of hope for a bear attack. You all might agree that we are in an overvalued territory, even if we fall 20%, we might still be overvalued. If you look at the daily candle, a strong double top is forming. For conclusive evidence, the markets have to trade below 24086, which is 3.2% lower than the current levels.  US markets fell last week and have a better-looking double top than ours. Again for conclusive evidence, we may need SPX to trade below 5137 which is like 5% below current levels. I am maintaining a neutral stance and would like to go short if 24537 is getting taken out next week. Personally, I do not see us dropping below 24200 this week (I have short positions @ 24200 PE and may have to run for cover if we test those levels by Tuesday).
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
Q&A_ Why is Nifty50 still strong whereas SPX is in a bear grip?Namaste! Currently, Nifty is trading near very important levels. This was the important resistance (because of lot of consolidation happening between Jun-July 2021), which became a support after the breakout. It has been tested twice since the July breakout. S&P 500 fell into bear market yesterday as far as daily close is considered. But, I am not convinced 100% of this happening, because Dow Jones is still hasn't got into bear market yet. I will be convinced >90% if SPX closes below 3854.90 in weekly chart . Q: Why is Nifty still strong as compared to US markets. A: 1st reason is that, the fund houses, hedge funds, investors and FIIs may be moving money from weak US markets to comparably strong Indian markets. 2nd reason is that since it is a very strong support, market have to consolidate a little before moving below (15600 Nifty level). Q: Will we see bear market in Nifty soon? A: Well, if DJI slips into bear market too, then there is a very high probability that we will. Q: Should we wait for a bear market to start investing? A: NO. There are many stocks in Sensex and Nifty which became undervalued due to this bearish plunge. You should to find such stocks and get into it without waiting for more downfall. Disclaimer: I am not an expert or professional degree holder into the field of investing. The views and analysis I have shared is of my own, based on my understanding. Please do your own due diligence before any activity.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
3rd Nov ’23 - The gap-up gave the trend change indication NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The levels have not changed from yesterday, the first resistance is at 19226 and the 2nd one is at 19310. I am staying neutral till 19226 is not taken out, seems like it could be even done in the forenoon session.” The gap-up took out my resistance of 19226 and was forced to go long. I was eagerly waiting for the 19310 to get broken so that the bullish momentum was done and cemented. This did not happen as Nifty was out of steam by 11.00. The 14.30 to 14.50 price action looked scary though, assuming the FIIs would have offloaded their selling positions in this window. On the 1hr TF, Nifty has made an odd-looking W pattern, technically its a bullish sign but we need confirmation of the same by taking out the 19310 resistance soon. These bullish price moves could be highly shortlived as well because its just a reaction of market participants to the FED’s announcement yesterday. Just for reference, I have pasted the SPX chart herewith. Could this relief rally be just another lower high in the making? When the global macros are that bad and the earnings are weak, there is every possibility for the bear run to continue. So if you are a bull, enjoy till it lasts.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
23rd Oct ’23 - The perfect day to break 2 supports - NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.” If you watched the opening minutes, you would not have guessed the 283+ intraday fall possibilities. We had a flat open instead of a gap-down even after a weak handout from US markets last Friday. The options data did not indicate any directional bias. Even India VIX fell to 9.68 by 10.00 indicating a collapse of The best evidence was India VIX which fell to a session low of 9.68 by 10.00, unbelievably down by 9.5%. I had 2 short positions on Nifty, long puts and short calls. I planned to unwind the short calls and get into the FinNifty options to take advantage of the expiry today. This plan was spoiled by the 10.00 AM red candle that prevented me from switching. What happened from there was simply magical. By 11.40 we tested the first support of 19446 and by 13.30 we broke that. Honestly, I thought that's how the day ends. The real party was just starting. Between 14.05 to close we fell a massive 180pts ~ 0.93% and took out the 19310 crucial support pretty easily. On the 1hr chart, its more clear and loud. The 14.15 candle shaved off 165pts ~ 0.85% and the length of that candle does tell a story. Since that support is broken, it may pave the way for further downfall. To prove this point, had to bring up the daily chart. See the encircled region, Nifty sent 3 white soldiers on 28th June to break out from the 18880 level. That helped it conquer 2 new ATHs on 20th July and 15th Sep. Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is - the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969). Since we have a holiday tomorrow (Dussehra) we may have to watch how SPX reacts for 2 days. If the Global macros improve, a brief relief rally above 19310 may be visible, but seeing the strength of the RED daily candle, I wish to continue my bearish stance.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
20th Oct ’23 - Contrasting Trade Signals by N50 and BN todayNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.” Nifty had a gap-down opening with the long wick on the 1st candle retesting the 19520 swing-low we hit yesterday. Right after that the momentum just died out. There were no wild swings or flash moves - we just traded flat. A consolidation at these levels was not something I had in mind. It is too early for that as worsening global macros should have pushed Nifty below 19310 by now. As I write this newsletter, India VIX ended the trade at 10.81 and US VIX is at 21.6. Can you imagine we have a 100% gap between the India and US volatility index? I am 100% sure that one of these markets is pricing in the information wrongly. No way both of them can be right. On the 1hr chart - today’s 0.42% drop has not moved the needle or bias. The first support of 19446 is still untested, which means higher weightage will go for range-based trade instead of outright bearish. Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
Stock HeatmapHave you ever heard of a stock heatmap? 📈 It's an innovative and visually appealing tool used in the world of finance to analyze and interpret market data. Let's explore what it is and how it can be useful in your trading journey. 🌡️ What is a Stock Heatmap? A stock heatmap is a graphical representation of a large set of stocks or securities, where each individual stock is color-coded based on its performance or specific metrics. It provides a visual snapshot of the entire market or a specific sector, helping traders quickly identify trends, strengths, and weaknesses. 🔍 Utilizing Heatmaps 1️⃣ Market Analysis: Heatmaps allow you to assess the overall market sentiment and identify which stocks are performing well and which ones are underperforming. 2️⃣ Sector Analysis: By using sector-specific heatmaps, you can easily spot strong sectors and weak sectors, helping you make informed decisions about sector rotation strategies. 3️⃣ Stock Selection: Heatmaps can assist in narrowing down potential trading opportunities by highlighting stocks with significant price movements, volume surges, or specific technical indicators. 4️⃣ Risk Management: Heatmaps help you assess the risk-reward profile of different stocks, enabling you to prioritize stocks that align with your risk tolerance and investment goals. Remember, a stock heatmap should be used as a complementary tool alongside other fundamental and technical analysis techniques. It provides a dynamic and intuitive way to visualize market data, aiding in decision-making and identifying potential trading opportunities.
SP:SPXEducation
by JRiquelmeTrading
VIX vs S&P500The VIX index (officially known as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index), developed by CBOE in 1993, is calculated based on the implied volatility of call and put options on the S&P500; index (SPX) over a 30-day period. The theory behind the volatility index is that if investors believe the market is going to decline, they will hedge their portfolios by buying puts (the right to sell an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date). Conversely, if traders are bullish, they may not want to hedge against potential downturns. This index shows a negative correlation with the S&P500.; When there is high volatility, the VIX reaches high values and is often accompanied by declines in the S&P500;, indicating fear and pessimism in the market. These events often lead to significant movements in the stock markets. Conversely, when the VIX is at lows, there is confidence in the market and movements are smoother. Relevant VIX levels: VIX<20: Investor confidence. Often coincides with bullish periods for the S&P500.; 2030: Increased investor pessimism or fear. High volatility and the potential for significant downward corrections in the prices of the S&P500; and major stock indices.
TVC:VIXEducation
by JRiquelmeTrading
S&P 500 in D Impulsive WaveOn Weekly Basis: S&P 500 currently at 4072 facing a resistance from downtrend line at 4080 as well as 200 DMA at 4055 (though breached upward briefly). It completed the final E of bear market wave at 3675. It again breached the low of 3675 and made a new low of 3583. It was about to qualify for new bear phase cycle of capitulation but could not sustain and moved up again. S&P 500 may at its best go to 4280. 4080 to 4280 is the level to resume short sell. RSI on weekly basis also no more oversold and in fact at neutral zone. The bear market if it resumes would be the worst phase with target below 3000 level. Warning and Disclaimer: Above prediction should not be taken as financial advice, it is a personal opinion. Consult your financial advisor. Investment is subject to market risks. Past performance is not the guarantee for future performance. It is for educational purpose only.
TVC:SPXShort
by AnkurSharda3