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Will there be an Upmove in Nifty on Monday? Hi there, I trying to understand and predict the market movement based on crowd mentality. First I will try to explain my theory on what might have happened (It may not be the case). GREEN ECLLIPSE @ 16800 LEVEL --> Price was at the demand zone ,started moving up and at the EOD Nifty was at 17100 OBSERVATION: -->Most people must have carried longs for the next day. Next day Nifty opened flat and started going down in the first hour. OBSERVATION: People who were long the previous day will be in confusion now might have started exiting their positions (they will be booking losses also if needed) So by the EOD on 03/10/2022 there are -->People who shorted the markets freshly will be carrying their trades. -->Do you think retailers will be carrying longs this day ? (My opinion is very little) Date:04/10/2022 -->BOOM !! whoever shorted are now trapped, aren't they ? -->As usual short covering happened and all the bulls started taking positions this day only.(Fresh positions) Date:06/10/2022 (Expiry day) Price is at supply zone and in the second half price gave confirmation and came down. So here again every one will be carrying shorts overnight. --> Next day If we observe price made a V pettern and it went up. Mostly every bear booked their positions and bulls took charge. -->By EOD everything has changed and suddenly people started carrying longs for the weekend thinking that bulls are strong (Nothing wrong). HOLA ...SGX at 17070 all of a sudden. All my analysis from now will be if market opens at these levels. --> Who are more for monday morning ? a) Those who carried longs booking their losses and exiting their positions or b)Those who carried shorts and exiting their positions with profits? I think (a)>>>(b). And most importantly market will be at its demand zone (opening price is in the FIB extension area of the recent trend) So any of the above options (a)/(b) happens there will be a retracement wave causing the market to move upside. I'm expecting retracement wave till 17170 to 17200 levels. After that there may be fresh shorting of market because actually most of us not benefited from this gap down or bulls might take charge again . For any of this to happen we will need more confirmations and we will see them in future. --> I have drawn all the levels here based on Elliott waves & by using Fib tools In short on Monday first look for any strong bullish candles or confirmation. Take long positions Try to avoid shorting unless if there is a retracement. Mostly I will post analysis in 15m time frame for intraday buy/sell Ideas. Follow me If you don't want to miss any updates. Please let me know if you have liked my analysis with a boost or a comment. *SECURING THE TRADE AND PROTECTING THE CAPITAL SHOULD BE YOUR FIRST PRIORITY. *NOT A SUGGESTION VIEWS ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Mo-Kri
4
Ease My Trip : Symmetrical TriangleThe symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend (at least a few months old) should exist. The symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout. Four (4) Points: We know that we need at least 2 points to form a trend line and to form a symmetrical triangle we need 2 trend lines. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high should be lower than the first and the upper line should slope down. The second low should be higher than the first and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, 5 points are enough to form a symmetrical triangle (2 on the upside trendline and 3 on the downside trendline) Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout. Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant . Typically, the time duration is about 3 months. Breakout Timeframe: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime. Breakout Confirmation: A break should be on a closing basis for it to be considered valid. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume , especially on upside breakouts. Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout. Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
NSE:EASEMYTRIPLong
by TradingSutra
2