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Will there be an Upmove in Nifty on Monday? Hi there, I trying to understand and predict the market movement based on crowd mentality. First I will try to explain my theory on what might have happened (It may not be the case). GREEN ECLLIPSE @ 16800 LEVEL --> Price was at the demand zone ,started moving up and at the EOD Nifty was at 17100 OBSERVATION: -->Most people must have carried longs for the next day. Next day Nifty opened flat and started going down in the first hour. OBSERVATION: People who were long the previous day will be in confusion now might have started exiting their positions (they will be booking losses also if needed) So by the EOD on 03/10/2022 there are -->People who shorted the markets freshly will be carrying their trades. -->Do you think retailers will be carrying longs this day ? (My opinion is very little) Date:04/10/2022 -->BOOM !! whoever shorted are now trapped, aren't they ? -->As usual short covering happened and all the bulls started taking positions this day only.(Fresh positions) Date:06/10/2022 (Expiry day) Price is at supply zone and in the second half price gave confirmation and came down. So here again every one will be carrying shorts overnight. --> Next day If we observe price made a V pettern and it went up. Mostly every bear booked their positions and bulls took charge. -->By EOD everything has changed and suddenly people started carrying longs for the weekend thinking that bulls are strong (Nothing wrong). HOLA ...SGX at 17070 all of a sudden. All my analysis from now will be if market opens at these levels. --> Who are more for monday morning ? a) Those who carried longs booking their losses and exiting their positions or b)Those who carried shorts and exiting their positions with profits? I think (a)>>>(b). And most importantly market will be at its demand zone (opening price is in the FIB extension area of the recent trend) So any of the above options (a)/(b) happens there will be a retracement wave causing the market to move upside. I'm expecting retracement wave till 17170 to 17200 levels. After that there may be fresh shorting of market because actually most of us not benefited from this gap down or bulls might take charge again . For any of this to happen we will need more confirmations and we will see them in future. --> I have drawn all the levels here based on Elliott waves & by using Fib tools In short on Monday first look for any strong bullish candles or confirmation. Take long positions Try to avoid shorting unless if there is a retracement. Mostly I will post analysis in 15m time frame for intraday buy/sell Ideas. Follow me If you don't want to miss any updates. Please let me know if you have liked my analysis with a boost or a comment. *SECURING THE TRADE AND PROTECTING THE CAPITAL SHOULD BE YOUR FIRST PRIORITY. *NOT A SUGGESTION VIEWS ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Mo-Kri
4
Ease My Trip : Symmetrical TriangleThe symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend (at least a few months old) should exist. The symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout. Four (4) Points: We know that we need at least 2 points to form a trend line and to form a symmetrical triangle we need 2 trend lines. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high should be lower than the first and the upper line should slope down. The second low should be higher than the first and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, 5 points are enough to form a symmetrical triangle (2 on the upside trendline and 3 on the downside trendline) Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout. Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant . Typically, the time duration is about 3 months. Breakout Timeframe: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime. Breakout Confirmation: A break should be on a closing basis for it to be considered valid. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume , especially on upside breakouts. Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout. Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
NSE:EASEMYTRIPLong
by TradingSutra
2
ICICI BANK: Correction Ahead Indicator Analysis: Prices were trading in an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows posting a high of INR 936.65 on 15'Sep'22 and subsequently retreated back on the same day forming a Hammer Candlestick pattern. Post that prices witnessed a selling pressure and broken the rising trend line established from Jun'22 low of INR 699.95 and currently trading below its 13-Day and 40-Day exponential moving average. The momentum oscillator Stochastic (13,8,5) has given an negative crossover and turned bearish while RSI (14) hovering around its 40-region. Based on these observations prices are likely to hold below 900 region and continue the correction towards INR 800 and INR 775 (where 200-Day exp-moving average is also placed) in the coming 2-3 weeks. Elliott Wave Scenario : Prices have concluded a five wave impulsive structure at INR 936.65 from Jun'22 low of INR 699.95 and subsequently undergone into a corrective structure trading below Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level. As per the current structure prices are likely to fall in a three wave corrective structure towards INR 800/770 which is also a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of the prior rally. Hence, any recovery from the current level is likely to hold below INR 900 and lead the prices for downside correction towards INR 800 and INR 775 in the coming 2 to 3 weeks.
NSE:ICICIBANKShort
by TradingSutra
8
AXIS BANK: Three Black CrowsStock has witnessed selling pressure from the previous swing resistance on the daily chart and formed a Bearish reversal candlestick pattern which is know as Three Black Crows. Prices have also broken the rising trend line established from Jun'22 low of INR 618.25 which suggest that prices may face more weakness in the coming days.Hence any retracement from the current level should be taken as selling opportunity for the downside objective of 700 zone which is fibonacci 61.8% retracement level of the previous rally. In the Three Black Crows Candlestick Pattern, all the three candles have bearish close consecutively. Each candle opens and closes progressively lower than the first. Each candlestick should have big real bodies and very small or no shadow. Trading strategy: Sell on rise near 760-770 keeping SL of 794 and look for the target of 720/694
NSE:AXISBANKShort
by TradingSutra
MARUTI: Ascending TriangleThis is also a converging triangle formed with one flat horizontal line on the top & an inclined line meeting at a common point as illustrated in the chart. The flat horizontal line act as a resistance for the prices & the on the inclined line the prices take support. It’s not necessary that the ascending triangle formation takes place only in the bull market, they can be formed in a bearish trend also. Here also you should concern with the key point “The Third Touch”. The five significant points help us to make our decision in a better way. Here, each points suggesting a reversal point & as soon as price got it’s third touch on the inclined supporting line the price shoot up & a breakout happened. The target for this pattern is the maximum vertical range of the triangle. Trading strategy:MARUTI: BUY 9285-75 SL: 9050 TGT: 9545/9850
NSE:MARUTILong
by TradingSutra
17
SUNPHARMA: Cup and Handle BreakoutTrading Strategy : Stock has given a breakout of the formation of cup and handle . One should buy the stock near the current level i.e. 912 and keeping a stop loss of 856 , look for the target of 1050-1115 which is the measured target zone.. Buy: 912 Stop loss : 856 Targets: Tgt 1: 1050 Tgt 2: 1115 Theory: The Cup with Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that marks a consolidation period followed by a breakout. It was developed by William O'Neil and introduced in his 1988 book, How to Make Money in Stocks. As its name implies, there are two parts to the pattern: the cup and the handle. The cup forms after an advance and looks like a bowl or rounding bottom. As the cup is completed, a trading range develops on the right-hand side and the handle is formed. A subsequent breakout from the handle's trading range signals a continuation of the prior advance. Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential. Cup: The cup should be “U” shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A “V” shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer “U” shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the “U”. The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case. Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which conforms with Dow Theory. Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times it is just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup. Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance. Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.
NSE:SUNPHARMALong
by TradingSutra
20
NSE:Wonderla - I am wondering....where is stock going 🎡 Wonderla Holidays is engaged in the business of Amusement Parks and Resort. KEY POINTS IPO and promoter group Wonderla came up with their IPO in April 2014 to raise 181 cr. which went into funding their upcoming amusement park in Hyderabad, that was operationalized in 2016 . The company was setup by Kochouseph Chittilappilly in 2000, the same promoter group also founded V-guard brand of stabilisers and runs V-Guard Industries/ Amusement Parks Wonderla currently has three operational parks, one each in Kochi, Bengaluru and Hyderabad established in 2000, 2005 and 2016 respectively. The Bengaluru park also has a resort with 4 banquet halls and 84 rooms Average revenues over the last 5 years (FY15 to FY20) have been ~79 cr. in the Kochi park and ~116 cr. in the Bangalore park. As Hyderabad park was operationalized only in FY17, revenues have grown from ~57 cr. in FY17 to ~74 cr. in FY20. Upcoming Parks and expansions A fourth park is being setup in Chennai at a cost of over 300 cr. The company is currently under discussion with the Chennai state government to resolve certain tax issues, after which construction activities will resume. The park has received exemption on entertainment tax for 5 years from the date of commencement of commercial operations or 01-10-2021 (whichever is earlier). Wonderla is also in discussion with the Odisha state government to setup a park in Bhubaneswar on an asset-light model, where land will be taken on lease and the total cost for setting up the park will be ~100 cr. Wonderla also plans to build a resort in Hyderabad similar to the one in Bangalore Revaluation of reserves Land was revalued in FY17 which caused equity reserves to go up from ~346 cr. in FY16 to ~684 cr. in FY17. Miscellaneous - Wonderla manufactures and maintains their rides in-house lowering cost of construction compared to if they were imported - Wonderla spends 8-10% of their revenues in advertisement and sales promotions - Wonderla's business is seasonal in nature with higher footfalls in June and December quarters corresponding to summer break and festive season respectively.
NSE:WONDERLALong
by Peaceful-Weekend-Investing
BankNifty-Twist & Turn-Will it die on Euphoria? Island ReversalDisclaimer: This is not an Investment Advice. Trading leveraged products carries a high degree of risk and you could lose more than your initial deposit. "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell." -John Templeton What Is an Island Reversal? An island reversal is a price pattern indicating grouping of days on either side by gaps in the price action. This price pattern occurs when two different gaps isolate a cluster of trading days. Pattern usually indicates reversal in trend - which can be short term or long term. Check the charts 7th Sep 2022 Gap down opening as shown in circle shape & 8th Sep 2022 - Possible Gap up opening in next trading session Check the Snapshot / Image - Island Reversal Pattern Try to relate with the current chart of BankNifty. Check yourself where are you in the chart & what could you expect if something similar has to repeat. Thanks for reading
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by WaveTalks
9