Hi there,
I trying to understand and predict the market movement based on crowd mentality.
First I will try to explain my theory on what might have happened (It may not be the case).
GREEN ECLLIPSE @ 16800 LEVEL
--> Price was at the demand zone ,started moving up and at the EOD Nifty was at 17100
OBSERVATION:
-->Most people must have carried longs for the next day.
Next day Nifty opened flat and started going down in the first hour.
OBSERVATION:
People who were long the previous day will be in confusion now might have started exiting their positions (they will be booking losses also if needed)
So by the EOD on 03/10/2022 there are
-->People who shorted the markets freshly will be carrying their trades.
-->Do you think retailers will be carrying longs this day ? (My opinion is very little)
Date:04/10/2022
-->BOOM !! whoever shorted are now trapped, aren't they ?
-->As usual short covering happened and all the bulls started taking positions this day only.(Fresh positions)
Date:06/10/2022 (Expiry day)
Price is at supply zone and in the second half price gave confirmation and came down. So here again every one will be carrying shorts overnight.
--> Next day If we observe price made a V pettern and it went up. Mostly every bear booked their positions and bulls took charge.
-->By EOD everything has changed and suddenly people started carrying longs for the weekend thinking that bulls are strong (Nothing wrong).
HOLA ...SGX at 17070 all of a sudden. All my analysis from now will be if market opens at these levels.
--> Who are more for monday morning ?
a) Those who carried longs booking their losses and exiting their positions or
b)Those who carried shorts and exiting their positions with profits?
I think (a)>>>(b).
And most importantly market will be at its demand zone (opening price is in the FIB extension area of the recent trend)
So any of the above options (a)/(b) happens there will be a retracement wave causing the market to move upside.
I'm expecting retracement wave till 17170 to 17200 levels.
After that there may be fresh shorting of market because actually most of us not benefited from this gap down or bulls might take charge again .
For any of this to happen we will need more confirmations and we will see them in future.
--> I have drawn all the levels here based on Elliott waves & by using Fib tools
In short on Monday first look for any strong bullish candles or confirmation. Take long positions
Try to avoid shorting unless if there is a retracement.
Mostly I will post analysis in 15m time frame for intraday buy/sell Ideas. Follow me If you don't want to miss any updates.
Please let me know if you have liked my analysis with a boost or a comment.
*SECURING THE TRADE AND PROTECTING THE CAPITAL SHOULD BE YOUR FIRST PRIORITY.
*NOT A SUGGESTION VIEWS ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
I trying to understand and predict the market movement based on crowd mentality.
First I will try to explain my theory on what might have happened (It may not be the case).
GREEN ECLLIPSE @ 16800 LEVEL
--> Price was at the demand zone ,started moving up and at the EOD Nifty was at 17100
OBSERVATION:
-->Most people must have carried longs for the next day.
Next day Nifty opened flat and started going down in the first hour.
OBSERVATION:
People who were long the previous day will be in confusion now might have started exiting their positions (they will be booking losses also if needed)
So by the EOD on 03/10/2022 there are
-->People who shorted the markets freshly will be carrying their trades.
-->Do you think retailers will be carrying longs this day ? (My opinion is very little)
Date:04/10/2022
-->BOOM !! whoever shorted are now trapped, aren't they ?
-->As usual short covering happened and all the bulls started taking positions this day only.(Fresh positions)
Date:06/10/2022 (Expiry day)
Price is at supply zone and in the second half price gave confirmation and came down. So here again every one will be carrying shorts overnight.
--> Next day If we observe price made a V pettern and it went up. Mostly every bear booked their positions and bulls took charge.
-->By EOD everything has changed and suddenly people started carrying longs for the weekend thinking that bulls are strong (Nothing wrong).
HOLA ...SGX at 17070 all of a sudden. All my analysis from now will be if market opens at these levels.
--> Who are more for monday morning ?
a) Those who carried longs booking their losses and exiting their positions or
b)Those who carried shorts and exiting their positions with profits?
I think (a)>>>(b).
And most importantly market will be at its demand zone (opening price is in the FIB extension area of the recent trend)
So any of the above options (a)/(b) happens there will be a retracement wave causing the market to move upside.
I'm expecting retracement wave till 17170 to 17200 levels.
After that there may be fresh shorting of market because actually most of us not benefited from this gap down or bulls might take charge again .
For any of this to happen we will need more confirmations and we will see them in future.
--> I have drawn all the levels here based on Elliott waves & by using Fib tools
In short on Monday first look for any strong bullish candles or confirmation. Take long positions
Try to avoid shorting unless if there is a retracement.
Mostly I will post analysis in 15m time frame for intraday buy/sell Ideas. Follow me If you don't want to miss any updates.
Please let me know if you have liked my analysis with a boost or a comment.
*SECURING THE TRADE AND PROTECTING THE CAPITAL SHOULD BE YOUR FIRST PRIORITY.
*NOT A SUGGESTION VIEWS ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES
Comment:
Market is opening in expected range
Comment:
Long @ 17090
SL :17050
SL :17050
Comment:
Exit half positions and Stops to be at COST now
Comment:
Nifty at 17210
Probable intraday resistance @17210-17220
Probable intraday resistance @17210-17220
