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How to Journal as a Trader or Investor on Trading View ? Summary of this video There could be Two types of people Journaling, one who is daily journaling and one who is weekly journaling; both will do the job. You can make two notebooks for the same: Feelings-based Journal and Stats-based Journaling. Both serve different purposes. A feeling-based journal helps you to create a daily habit of writing some compulsory things like pre-market, vix, post-market, and setups, and ask why in terms of positions - if taken and if not taken, whereas to get into the habit of writing a feelings based journal also dig deep into some really important terms like cpi inflation, ppi of some significant economies which effects your markets. These things won't affect your trading, but such add-ons help you give a direction to your journaling power. A Stats-based journal contains different columns, as told in the video; feel free to add more of your favorite ones and change them as you wish, but every single trade should be respected in such a manner. Journal every single trade like this in terms of numbers. Remars is very important in this journal as it will guide your Fear and Greed. In conclusion, Finally, if you can do this for at least one month, you will see good results, but what exactly do you have to see? After one month, read your first-day feeling journal and the first two or three trade remarks. You will be amazed to see how silly mistakes you made in the past or how efficient you were back then and now you are making those mistakes; either will help you grow in mindset and profitability. It enables you to become a better trader by 1% daily. Feel free to put more ideas and thoughts below in the comment section. Good luck journaling
NSE:SBINEducation
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis
2
Price Action vs Indicators : A Fresh PerspectivePrice Action vs Indicators: A Fresh Perspective The comparison between price action and indicator trading has been a topic of debate for a long time. In this article, I aim to debunk some popular beliefs and provide traders with a new outlook on this ongoing argument. 1. Price Action is Better Than Indicators Price action traders often claim that their method is superior. However, both price action and indicators rely on the same historical price data. The only difference lies in how this information is processed. Indicators apply a specific formula to the price data, but they do not alter what is seen on the charts. When interpreting price action, traders are essentially doing the same mental processing. 2. Indicators are Lagging – Price Action is Leading Critics argue that indicators lag behind price action, but this misconception stems from a lack of understanding. Indicators utilize past price action based on their settings and display the results after applying a formula. Similarly, traders who analyze pure price patterns also examine past price action that has already moved away from potential entry points. Both methods rely on historical data and can be considered "lagging." To minimize lag, traders can adjust the indicator's time settings or analyze fewer past candlesticks. However, it's important to note that reducing data may result in less meaningful analysis. 3. Price Action is Simple and Better for Beginners It is often believed that price action is simpler and more suitable for beginners. However, in trading, simplicity does not always equate to effectiveness. Both price action and indicator trading require a solid understanding and correct usage of the chosen tools. Personal preferences and how traders utilize their tools play a more significant role than the debate between price action and indicator trading. In conclusion, the comparison between price action and indicators should not be seen as a competition between superiority and inferiority. Both methods have their merits and can be valuable tools for traders. It is crucial to grasp the underlying principles and use them appropriately to achieve success in the dynamic world of trading. So, choose wisely. Thanks Simranjit Singh Virdi
NSE:NIFTY1!Education
by ssvirdi
HOW-TO use the Fundamental Strength Indicator? (full guide)Below is the complete instruction on how to use the Fundamental Strength Indicator . Part 1: The Fundamental Strength of the Company To understand what it is for, let's imagine that you manage a long-distance running team, and you need to recruit a team of excellent athletes. However, you don’t even know the names of these athletes or their contract amounts. You only have information about their health and athletic performance: hemoglobin and iron content in the blood, maximal oxygen consumption, steps-per-minute rate, speed, age, etc. Each player has their own large table with different parameters. And you have, let’s say, a thousand tables like that. If you spend 3 minutes studying one table, it will take you 50 hours to analyze all the tables, which is just over 2 days of continuous work. And how long would it take to compare each athlete with the rest? Approximately 2 years of continuous work. This is obviously no good, that is why you take a computer, enter all the data from the tables and start thinking about how you can reduce the time to compare one athlete with another. As a result of your brainstorming, you come to the following conclusions: — Each parameter has its range of values, which can give you an idea of whether an athlete is suitable or not suitable for a marathon. — The parameter may have its dynamics: it may increase from month to month, stay the same, or decrease. — Each parameter can be assigned a score. For example, the step-per-minute rate can be: — 175 and above (+1 point) — 165–174 (0 points) — 164 and below (-1 point) And you do that with each parameter. What are these points for? To convert indicators that use different units into one measurement system. Thanks to this method, you can now compare apples to oranges. Then, you sum up all the points per month and get one single number — let's call it athletic strength. You like your thought process, and you apply this algorithm to every athlete’s table. Now, instead of dozens of parameters per month, you have one number (athletic strength) for each athlete. It looks like your task has been dramatically simplified. Next, to study the dynamics of athletic strength from month to month, you “ask” your computer to create a plot for each of the athletes. This chart shows that Athlete #1's athletic strength has fluctuated chaotically in the first three quarters of 2022, possibly due to the lack of regular training. But then you observe a positive trend, where athletic strength has grown from month to month. It seems like the athlete has taken up training. Then, to compare one athlete with another, you “ask” your computer to add the average value of athletic strength over the past six months (average pre-competition training period) to the existing plot. Now, you can use the most average recent value as a weighted score of athletic strength and compare athletes with each other based on this value. Thanks to this solution, you accelerate the analysis process by a magnitude: one athlete – one number. It appears that you can then simply sort the table by the highest athletic strength weighted score and consider the best athletes. However, not wanting to sort the table every time the data is updated or when you get new athletes, you make a better decision. The logic behind the points system implies that there is a maximum and a minimum possible number of points that one athlete can get. This allows you to create ranges of scores for athletes with excellent, mediocre, and poor training. For example, let’s say the maximum is 15 and the minimum is -15. Athletes with a score of 8 to 15 will be considered as strong, 1 to 7 – mediocre, and 0 to -15 – weak. That’s it! Now, thanks to this gradation, you can simply check which range the weighted athletic strength falls within, and decide whether each athlete will be admitted to the team. I believe that now your primary selection will take no more than one working day (including a lunch break). Now let's mentally replace athletes with public companies. Instead of data on health and athletic performance, we will have data from the companies’ financial statements and financial ratios. Applying a similar algorithm, we will get the fundamental strength of the company instead of athletic strength. I think it's time to show the Fundamental Strength Indicator . Let's launch! What do we see? — First, it is a Histogram with bars of three colors: green, orange, and red. The width of the histogram depends on the depth of data from the company statements. The more historical data, the wider the histogram over time. The green color of the bars means that the company has been showing excellent financial results by the sum of the factors in that period. According to my terminology, the company has a “strong foundation” during this period. Green corresponds to values between 8 and 15 (where 15 is the maximum possible positive value on the sum of the factors). The orange color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors during this period the company demonstrated mediocre financial results, i.e., it has a “mediocre foundation” . Orange color corresponds to values from 1 to 7. The red color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors in this period of time, the company demonstrated weak financial results, i.e., it has a “weak foundation” . The red color corresponds to values from -15 to 0 (where -15 is the maximum possible negative value on the sum of factors). — Second, this is the Blue Line , which is the moving average of the Histogram bars over the last year (*). Averaging over the year is necessary to obtain a weighted estimate that is not subject to medium-term fluctuations. It is by the last value of the blue line that the actual Fundamental Strength of the company is determined. (*) The last year means the last 252 trading days, including the current trading day. — Third, these are operating, investing, and financing Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income. These flows look like thick green, orange, and red lines, respectively. — Fourth, this is the Table on the left, which shows the latest actual value of the Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows. Indicator settings: In the indicator settings, I can disable the visibility of the Histogram, Blue Line, Cash Flows (each separately), and Table. It helps to study each of the parameters separately. It is also possible to change the color, transparency, and thickness of lines. The movie Moneyball was released in 2011, where Brad Pitt plays the role of Billy Bean, the sports manager of the Oakland Athletics baseball team. With a small budget, he managed to assemble a high-scoring team based on the analysis of player performance. As a result, this approach was applied by other teams in the league, and Billy Bean received massive recognition from the professional community. Part 2: Benchmark Business Model One day, when I had already grasped the concept of the Fundamental Strength of a company, I was returning home from vacation. I was in a taxi and the driver was listening to an audiobook. As the drive took longer than an hour, I had nothing to do but listen to the story. I liked the content. It was a fictional novel with a plot centered around the main character named Alex Rogo. He is a manager of one of the three enterprises of the UniCo corporation. Even though Alex spends all his time and energy on work, things are not going very well for the company: over the past six months, the company has only had losses. This leaves Alex's executives no choice but to give him an ultimatum: if he can’t radically improve the situation in three months, the enterprise will be shut down, and he will be left without a job. At the same time, Alex's wife is tired of her husband’s absence in her personal life, so she decides to leave him. Anyway, the story's beginning turned out to be very dramatic, and I wondered how Alex would cope with all this. Luckily, in this stressful time, he meets his former physics teacher Jonah, who now consults companies regarding efficient production. Alex tells his old acquaintance about what’s going on and how he managed to increase labor productivity at the enterprise after purchasing new robots. However, the losses continue to hang over his head like the sword of Damocles. After listening to Alex's story, Jonah wisely suggests that the problem with his enterprise lies in the management is concerned about anything but the main goal of their business, which is creating money or profit. Jonah explains to Alex that all management ideas related to expanding the sales market, using new technologies, or improving product quality can lead the company to a disaster if fundamental things are not considered. In his opinion, management should only focus on three indicators: — Throughput , which is the rate at which a company makes money through sales. — Inventory , which is all the money invested by the company in assets: premises, equipment, patents, raw materials, etc.: that is, in something that can then be sold. — Operational expenses , which are all the money a company spends turning investments into cash, or something that can’t be sold, such as the salary of employees, the cost of rent, payment for delivery services, etc. Thus, the management’s job is to make improvements that will ultimately lead to an increase in Throughput and a decrease in Inventory and Operational expenses. For example, Alex’s purchase of robots to increase the number of products produced has led to an increase in production. However, suppose you look at it through the prism proposed by Jonah. In that case, we actually have the following picture: Inventory has increased, Operational expenses have not decreased (no one has been fired), and the robots can’t contribute to sales growth in any way (the Throughput is not increasing). As a result, this was not an improvement, but a deterioration. The accumulation of such bad decisions eventually leads to the unprofitability of the company. Conversely, continuous improvements that will increase the Throughput and reduce Inventory and Operational expenses will inevitably lead to achieving the main goal – making money. After I got home, I tried to find this book on the Internet. It turned out that it was written by physicist and philosopher Eliyahu M. Goldratt back in 1984. The novel is called The Goal . That’s when I realized that if the company's management adheres to the approach described by Goldratt, then after a while, we will most likely see a fundamentally strong company. And the Fundamental Strength Indicator clearly shows how much the management has succeeded along this path. For example, according to Goldratt, an increase in Throughput should lead to an increase in Earnings per share (EPS) and Total revenue . The reduction in Inventory may be linked with a decrease in Inventory to revenue ratio . Optimization of Operational expenses will definitely reduce the Operating expense ratio . All these parameters are considered when calculating the Fundamental Strength of the company. So, let's move on to the methodology for calculating the Fundamental Strength Indicator. The main idea that inspired me to create this indicator is: "Even if you buy just 1 share of a company, treat it like buying the whole business" . Guided by this approach, you can imagine what kind of business an investor is interested in owning and simultaneously determine the input parameters for calculating the indicator. For me, a benchmark business is: — A business that operates efficiently without diminishing the return on shareholders' investment. To assess the efficiency and profitability of a business, I use the following financial ratios(*): Diluted EPS and Return on Equity (ROE). The first two parameters for calculating the indicator are there. — A business that scales sales and optimizes its costs. From this perspective, the following financial ratios are suitable: Gross margin, Operating expense ratio, and Total revenue. Plus three other metrics. — A business that turns goods/services into cash quickly and does not fall behind on payments to suppliers. The following financial ratios will fit here: Days payable, Days sales outstanding, and Inventory to revenue ratio. These are three more metrics. — A business that does not resort to significant accounts payable and shows financial strength. Here I use the following financial ratios: Current ratio, Interest coverage, and Debt to revenue ratio. These are the last three parameters. (*) If you are keen to learn more about these financial ratios, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView: Financial ratios: digesting them together What can financial ratios tell us? Next, each of the parameters is assigned a certain number of points based on its last value or the position of that value relative to the annual maximum and minimum. For example, if the Current ratio: — greater than or equal to 2 (+1 point); — less than or equal to 1 (-1 point); — more than 1 but less than 2 (0 points). Or for example, if Diluted EPS: — near or above the annual high (+2 points); — near the annual minimum and below (-2 points); — between the annual maximum and minimum (0 points). And so on with each of the parameters. As a result, the maximum number of points a company can score is 15 points. The minimum number of points a company can score is -15 points. These levels are marked with horizontal dotted lines: the green line is for the maximum value, and the red line is for the minimum. I track the number of points for each day of a company's life on a three-color Histogram. The resulting average value for the last year is on the Blue Line. For me, it is the last value of the Blue Line that determines: this is the actual Fundamental Strength of the company. As an additional filter, for example, when comparing two companies where all other conditions are equal: I use the dynamics of Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income. These are the thick green, orange, and red lines over the Histogram. Examples: Below, I will evaluate various companies using the Fundamental Strength Indicator. Tesla, Inc. The indicator shows that since 2020, Tesla Inc. has been steadily increasing its Fundamental Strength (from 3.27 in Q1 2020 to 12.79 in Q1 2023). This is noticeable both by the color change of the Histogram from orange to green and by the rising Blue Line. If you look in detail at what has been happening with the financials during this time, it's clear what meaningful work the company has done. Revenues have almost quadrupled. Earnings per share have increased 134 times. At the same time, Total debt to revenue fell almost 10 times. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. The company, formed in 2018 by the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group, has failed to deliver outstanding financial results, causing its Fundamental Strength to fall from 4.63 in Q1 2018 to -0.53 in Q1 2023. During this period, the decline in diluted earnings per share was accompanied by higher debt and deteriorating liquidity. Costco Wholesale Corporation Wholesaler Costco has been surprisingly stable in its financial performance and with steady growth in both earnings and revenue. This is the reason the Histogram bars are exceptionally green throughout the calculation of the indicator. The Fundamental Strength has not changed in three years and is high at 11 points. Part 3: Company Cash Flow Dynamics The other day I came across an interesting article about the work of the Swiss company Glencore International AG in the 1990s. This company specializes in trading raw materials, and at that time it was actively trading with the countries that had left the USSR. None of those countries had foreign currency, and trust in local currencies had not yet appeared, so it was necessary to exchange commodities for commodities like in the Middle Ages. For example, to sell copper in Kazakhstan, a Swiss company bought raw sugar in Brazil, then took it to Ukraine for refining, then the refined sugar was exchanged for Siberian oil in Russia, then the oil was exchanged for copper ore in Mongolia, which was then sent to a plant in Kazakhstan to create copper suitable for sale on the world market. As we can see, money was used here only at the moment of purchase of raw sugar and sale of copper, the rest of the chain of transactions was an exchange of goods for goods. It turns out the following scheme: Money - Raw sugar - Refined sugar - Oil - Copper ore - Copper - Money' Of course, all of this made sense when Money' (with a stroke) equaled big money. Otherwise, the cost of preparing and executing such a complex transaction simply wouldn't have paid off. This example once again convinced me how significant a role money plays in any company's operations. Can you imagine the chaos that a business can become without money and having to make up similar supply chains? Money simplifies and accelerates all processes in a company, so competent management of these flows is the basis of an effective business. If you compare a company to a living organism, Cash Flow(*) is its circulatory system. It is thanks to this system that the company is supplied with everything it needs to produce goods or services. (*) If you are keen to learn more about Cash Flows, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView: Cash flow statement or Three great rivers Cash flow vibrations Considering that cash flows play a fundamental role in the activity of any company, it is reasonable to assume that their analysis will give us the necessary information to decide. For this reason, an additional parameter was added to the Fundamental Strength Indicator : the dynamics of Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income(*). (*) Since the value of income can be negative, the Diluted net income module is taken, that is, without the "minus" sign. Why do I use income as a unit of measure of Cash Flows? Because it is a good way to make the scale of indicator values the same for companies from different countries, with different currencies. It also allows you to use a single value scale for both Cash Flows and Fundamental Strength. So, let's take a look at how the dynamics of Cash Flows look like in the Fundamental Strength Indicator. These are three lines of different colors, which are located over the Histogram. Each of the flows corresponds to a specific color: — Operating cash flow: green line; — Investing cash flow: orange line; — Financing cash flow: red line. In this way, I can track the dynamics of the company's Cash Flow over time. To interpret the dynamics of Cash Flows, I pay attention to the following patterns: — How the cash flows are positioned in relation to each other; — In which zone each of the cash flows is located: in the positive or negative; — What is the trend of each of the cash flows; — How volatile each of the cash flows is. As an example, let's look at several companies to interpret the dynamics of their Cash Flows. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. This is the most ideal situation for me: operating cash flow (green line) is above the other cash flows, investment cash flow (orange line) is near zero and practically unchanged, and financial cash flow (red line) is consistently below zero. This picture shows that the company lives off its operating cash flow, does not increase its debt, does not spend a substantial amount of money on expensive purchases, and retains (does not sell off) assets. Parker Hannifin Corporation With stable operating cash flow (green line), the company implements investment programs by raising additional funding. This is noticeable due to an increase in financial cash flow (red line) and a simultaneous decrease in investment cash flow (orange line) with a significant deepening into negative areas. Apparently, there is not enough operating cash flow to realize the planned investments. One has to wonder how sustainable a company can be if it invests in its development using borrowed funds. Schlumberger N. V. The chaotic intertwining of cash flows outside the Fundamental Strength range (-15 to 15) is indicative of the company's rich life, but to me, it is an indicator of high riskiness of its actions. And as we can see, Fundamental Strength has only begun to strengthen in the last year, when the external appearance of cash flow has normalized. Thus, when the Fundamental Strength of two companies is equally good, I use an additional filter in the form of Cash Flow dynamics. This helps me to clarify my interest in this or that company. What is the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator: — allows for a quantitative assessment of a company's financial performance in points (from -15 to 15 points); — allows you to visually track how the company's financial performance has changed (positively/negatively) over time; — allows to visually trace the movement of main cash flows over time; — accelerates the process of selecting companies for your shortlist (if you are focused on financial results when selecting companies); — allows you to protect yourself from investing in companies with weak and mediocre fundamentals. Mandatory requirements for using the indicator: — works only on a daily timeframe; — only applies to shares of public companies; — company financial statements for the last 4 quarters and more are required; — it is necessary to have the data from the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement, required for the calculation. If at least one component required for calculating the Fundamental Strength is missing, the message "no data to calculate the Fundamental Strength correctly" is displayed. In the same case, but for the operating cash flow, the message "no data to calculate the Operating Cash Flow correctly" is shown, and similarly for other flows. Risk disclaimer: When working with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the additional filter in the form of Cash Flows, you should understand that the publication of the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement takes place sometime after the end of the financial quarter. This means that new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statements. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the values of the Indicator after the publication of new statements. The magnitude of this change will depend both on the content of the new statements and on the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statements. Until the date of publication of the new statements, the latest relevant data will be used for calculations. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the calculation of Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows requires the availability of data for all parameters of the valuation model . It uses data that is exclusively available on TradingView (there is no reconciliation with other sources). If at least one parameter is missing, I switch to another company's analysis to continue using the indicator. Thus, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and an additional filter in the form of Cash Flows make it possible to evaluate the financial results of the company based on the available data and the methodology I created. A simple visualization in the form of a three-color Histogram, a Blue line, and three thick Cash Flow lines significantly reduces the time for selecting fundamentally strong companies that fit the criteria of the selected model. However, this Indicator and/or its description and/or examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
Editors' picks
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Be_Capy
4
The most subjective facet of my decision-making systemIn the previous publication I started talking about my decision-making system. I use it when investing in stocks. This system allows me to answer three questions: - which stocks to choose? - at what price to make a trade? - and in what quantity? In this post, I will continue to answer the question Which stocks to pick? and tell you about another facet of my crystal. As you can see, my decision-making system is quite formalized. What do I mean? It has clear criteria for which a company must be checked before investing in its stocks. If we go deeper into this idea, we can say that the state of affairs in any public company can be assessed using numbers from its statements and stock exchange prices for its stocks. All this can be visualized, put into a form that is readable for the investor, and accelerate the decision-making process many times over. However, there is an area with information that hovers around the companies, directly or indirectly influences it, but is poorly formalized: this is News . News can be called a message related to a company and distributed through its website, media, and social networks. This message triggers an almost knee-jerk reaction among stock investors (and traders). They will try to interpret the information received, make a forecast, and in some cases even make a trade. It is for this reason that the moment the news is published is often accompanied by a sharp movement in the stock price and an increase in trading volume. The order book now has a lot more players than before. These are traders excited by the news, confident of what will happen next. Here I can’t help but recall the allegory about Crazy Mister Market from Benjamin Graham. It presents the market as a partner who is constantly knocking on your door and offering you crazy ideas (stock prices). Where does this mister get his madness from? My answer is simple — from the news. Despite this, I cannot help but pay attention to the news, I cannot help but interpret it, to build predictions in my head. This happens reflexively, as a reaction to boiling water hitting my skin. However, will I make a trade under the influence of this information? We'll talk about this at the end of the post. Let's find out what news is available and where to find it. In this publication, I will only consider matters relevant to the stock market. That is information that can directly or indirectly affect the state of affairs in the companies. As I work, I divide the news flow into two categories: macro-event and corp-event . A macro-event is something that can indirectly impact the state of affairs in a company since it impacts the external environment in which it lives. For example: 1. In the third quarter, US GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year, which was better than expected (*). GDP Dynamics are a general economic indicator of economic growth in a particular country. This event only indirectly affects the business of the US companies. In other words, a company can be unprofitable even if the GDP in the country of its business is growing. (*) In the news, you will often see the following wording: - better than expected - worse than expected - as expected These are significant clarifications since it is believed that the exchange price already considers expectations for future events. Therefore, the coincidence with expectations will most likely be perceived calmly by market participants. Conversely, price fluctuations can be significant if the news can be qualified as a “surprise”. 2. The EPA is setting rules for a proposed “methane fee” on waste generated by oil and gas companies. This news also refers to macro events, as it impacts an entire industry: the oil and gas business. Moreover, please note that methane fee is only suggested. That is, it is not at all a fact that it will ultimately be implemented. Unlike macro events, a corp-event directly affects the state of affairs in the companies. Let's look at some of them. For example: 3. Hilton's (HLT) 3rd quarter Profit was in line with revenue forecasts. The news contains information about Hilton's financial results for the 3rd quarter. Of course, this directly impacts investors’ assessment of the company's prospects, and therefore the volume of investment in it. 4. Devastating wildfires have forced California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, to plan the sale of gas assets. Based on the news headline, we can conclude that the company is considering selling a significant part of its business (since the word “gas” even appears in the company name) to compensate for the damage from the devastating fires. Of course, this directly points to the difficult situation in the companies. Well, we figured out which news is considered a macro-event and which is a corporate event. Now let's find them where we need to. First, let's look at the event calendars that are available on TradingView. They are convenient because they inform us in advance what event to expect on the date in question. Let's start with the ⁣Economic calendar . You can find it in the main TradingView Products menu (Products -> Economic calendar ). This calendar shows upcoming publications of key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, ⁣ interest rate, unemployment, and inflation. It will also reflect national events — for example, presidential elections. Thus, you will only see macro events in it. Click on globe and select the country you are interested in, a group of countries, or the whole world: this way you will filter events by geography. If you are interested in tracking only important events, there is a special button for this High importance . There is also a three-column importance indicator next to each event. If all are shaded, the event is of maximum importance. You can expand any event, read information about it, view statistics, and even add it to your personal calendar. In terms of importance, the higher the importance of the event, the stronger the market reaction may be after the information is released. Furthermore, the strength of the reaction will depend on how much reality diverges from expectations for this event (with the forecast). Please note that the current value published is published to the left of the forecast, and the value for the previous period is published to the right. This allows you to evaluate the released metric over time. So, my standard set of filters for the economic calendar is: - Geography: all over the world; - High importance; - This week; - All categories. The economic calendar has been set up. There is another calendar on TradingView: this is Earnings calendar . It is located in the interface for working with Supercharts and, of course, is intended for analyzing corporate events. Once you go to the chart, click on the calendar icon in the menu on the right, and the events panel will open in front of you. The Earnings calendar will contain the names of the companies, their next reporting date, and analysts' estimates of earnings per share: EPS. In its meaning, this estimate is an average expectation or forecast. Therefore, any strong discrepancy between current data and the forecast value can greatly change the value of the company's stocks. By the way, you can check this simply by clicking on the company's name in the calendar: the window with the stock price chart will update instantly. The released earnings per share value can be viewed both on the chart itself and in the company's information (the top menu button on the right). The current value will be marked with either a red circle (below the forecast) or a green circle (above the forecast). The gray circle indicates the forecast itself. Calendars are convenient because they present us with the main essence of the news in a compressed, digitized form. The description of such news is not as important as the value of the key indicator. However, if you want to read classic text news about a related company, simply click on the lightning bolt icon on your chart. You can also find news grouped by asset class, region, news agency, etc. in the main menu of the TradingView site's root page. Of the groups presented, I most often use News Flow to get a general context of what is happening. Returning to my decision-making system, there is news (let's call it critical ) that can trigger the closure of a position or non-opening of a position in the shares of a particular company, even though the main indicators do not suggest this. To determine such news, I ask myself three questions: 1. Do I trust this news source? We are surrounded by many sources of news: social networks, news sites, television, etc. It’s easy to check everyone’s reputation on the Internet. Therefore, to take the news into account, you must trust its source. If you see significant news about a company, but it is not in reputable media resources and/or on the company's website, this is a reason to think whether the source is trying to increase its popularity through a loud headline and unverified content. 2. Does this news describe an accomplished fact? Even in reputable publications, you can find publications with versions of events, forecasts, and opinions. This is good food for thought. However, when deciding, I constantly try to separate the standpoint from the fact confirmed by a reliable source. Only facts can be considered when deciding. 3. Is an accomplished fact capable of leading the company to bankruptcy? This is a difficult question that requires an assessment of the company's economic damage, and its comparison with the level of total debt to creditors and current assets. Even if a company is facing bankruptcy, it can be saved by providing assistance from the government or other businesses. Answering this question, I can listen to the opinions of analysts and my intuition. Therefore, this is the most subjective facet of my decision-making system. I just have to tell myself: “Yes, this fact can lead the company to bankruptcy” or vice versa: “No, this news is bad, but it does not pose a critical threat to the business.” So, if I answer “yes” to all three questions, then I can close a position in the shares of a particular company or not open it, guided simply by my “yes, this should be done.” The fact is that critical news comes out now, and reporting on a specific date in the future: there is a time gap between these events. Therefore, I find myself in a situation where I just need to decide and evaluate it later, in the future, based on published reports. It is similar to flying an airplane that fails during transit. The pilot may not fully understand what happened, but the choice must be made right now. If I answer “no” to any of the three questions, then I continue to use other facets of my “crystal” in standard mode, and leave the news “just for my information.” In future publications, I will continue to elaborate on my decision-making system and share my approach to choosing the price and quantity of a stock trade.
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by Be_Capy
Mastering the Art of Diamond Pattern Trading in Crypto and StockWhat is a Diamond Pattern? The diamond pattern is a unique formation characterized by two converging trend lines, creating a pattern that resembles a diamond or kite. Within this pattern, price movements oscillate, presenting traders with an opportunity to make informed decisions. However, to successfully navigate the diamond pattern, you need to understand its nuances and follow a disciplined trading strategy. Trading the Diamond Pattern: A Step-by-Step Approach 1. Identifying the Pattern The first step in diamond pattern trading is identifying the pattern on the price chart. Pay close attention to two converging trend lines between which prices fluctuate. This visual cue is crucial for decision-making. 2. Determining the Trend Direction Once you've identified the diamond pattern, the next step is to determine the direction of the trend. The diamond pattern's context within the existing trend is essential: If the diamond pattern forms during an uptrend, it is considered a bearish pattern. This suggests a potential reversal. If it forms during a downtrend, it indicates a bullish reversal pattern. 3. Opening the Trade After determining the trend direction, wait for a breakout from the diamond pattern to confirm your trade's direction. Your actions will differ depending on the type of pattern: For a bearish reversal pattern, open a short trade as soon as the price breaks below the lower trend line. For a bullish reversal pattern, open a long trade when the price breaks above the upper trend line. 4. Setting a Stop Loss To limit potential losses, it's essential to set a stop loss order. For a long trade, place your stop loss just below the low of the breakout candle. For a short trade, position your stop loss just above the high of the breakout candle. This ensures that you are protected if the trade goes against your expectations. 5. Setting the Target Determining the target for a diamond pattern trade is critical for managing your risk-reward ratio. The target can be calculated by measuring the height of the diamond pattern, from the highest to the lowest point, and adding this distance to the breakout point. Remember, the target can be adjusted to align with your risk tolerance and trading style. 6. Managing the Trade As the trade unfolds, closely monitor price action and adjust your stop loss and take profit orders accordingly. If the trade is moving in your favor, consider taking partial profits or tightening your stop loss to lock in gains. 7. Avoiding False Breakouts Diamond patterns are susceptible to false breakouts, where the price briefly exits the pattern but then quickly retraces. To minimize this risk, wait for the price to close outside the pattern before entering the trade. This extra confirmation can significantly improve your success rate. 8. Trading with Proper Risk Management Just like any trading strategy, risk management is paramount. Only risk a small percentage of your trading account on each trade, and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Always use stop loss orders to protect your capital. Additional Tips for Trading the Diamond Pattern - Confirm with Other Indicators While the diamond pattern can be a reliable signal, it's wise to confirm it with other technical indicators, such as moving averages, momentum indicators, or volume indicators. Seek additional signals that support the breakout direction. - Pay Attention to Multiple Time Frames To enhance your trade's probability of success, look for the diamond pattern on various time frames, including daily, weekly, and monthly charts. Trade only when it aligns with the larger trend, increasing your chances of a winning trade. - Be Patient Diamond patterns take time to develop fully. Rushing into a trade before the pattern matures can lead to false breakouts and unnecessary losses. Exercise patience and wait for the pattern to confirm before making your move. - Practice with a Demo Account Before risking real capital, practice trading the diamond pattern on a demo account. This allows you to refine your strategy, identify optimal entry and exit points, and gain confidence in your trading plan. In conclusion, mastering the diamond pattern in your trading strategy requires a combination of technical analysis skills, a disciplined approach, and a commitment to risk management. The diamond pattern can offer valuable insights into potential trend reversals or continuations, but successful trading relies on careful observation and strategic execution. Follow us for More Quality Analysis. Must Like and Share if it is really helpful. Thank you
Editors' picks
Education
by CryptoPatel
2
Two side income from stock marketWe all are here in Stock market to earn. And many of us think that there is a limit to earn. It is true but. We required to think about new ideas and new strategies . We should be calculative while we investing in stock market. Why I am telling this? New idea means!! Many peoples investing in stock market only on tips or on advise of there peoples. these people can be their colleagues / friends / relatives / influencer. Whenever you are going to invest your money in any stock, think about how to earn maximum profit with your capital. Get new idea to increase your returns. (I'm advising a new idea later in this post) Calculative What is calculative term? I mean to say. You should have levels of the stock. ie. Before enter in stock you should have your Targets in Stop-Loss in mind. And you should also stick on that levels. Topic Two side income from stock market Two side income means. Invest in stocks which have high dividend yield. Reason - When there is volatility in the market, high dividend stocks can protect your portfolio. Due to high dividend yield, they can balance the risk if fall in stock. Divided stocks have potential for value appreciation. in this way you can bring double benefits in the long run. Now you can understand it with this example. You buy 1,000 Qty and Invest Rs.2,50,000/- (250/- per share) If you get 20% return in one year. Return on Investment : Rs.50,000/- Additionally: Dividend Rs.9/- per share (Dividend Return: Rs.2,250/-) Your Total Profit in one year 50,000/- + 2,250/- = 52,250/- Here I'm mentioning some high dividend yield stocks (majorly PSU, I'm referring) :- Coal India 10.5% SAIL 9.6% ONGC 6.5% NMDC 5.4% PFC 5.1%
NSE:RTNPOWEREducation
by rohitnama3
2
Price/Earnings: amazing interpretation #2In my previous post , we started to analyze the most popular financial ratio in the world – Price / Earnings or P/E (particularly one of the options for interpreting it). I said that P/E can be defined as the amount of money that must be paid once in order to receive 1 monetary unit of diluted net income per year. For American companies, it will be in US dollars, for Indian companies it will be in rupees, etc. In this post, I would like to analyze another interpretation of this financial ratio, which will allow you to look at P/E differently. To do this, let's look at the formula for calculating P/E again: P/E = Capitalization / Diluted earnings Now let's add some refinements to the formula: P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year (*) (*) In my case, by year I mean the last 12 months. Next, let's see what the Current capitalization and Diluted earnings for the last year are expressed in, for example, in an American company: - Current capitalization is in $; - Diluted earnings for the last year are in $/year. As a result, we can write the following formula: P/E = Current capitalization / Diluted earnings for the last year = $ / $ / year = N years (*) (*) According to the basic rules of math, $ will be reduced by $, and we will be left with only the number of years. It's very unusual, isn't it? It turns out that P/E can also be the number of years! Yes, indeed, we can say that P/E is the number of years that a shareholder (investor) will need to wait in order to recoup their investments at the current price from the earnings flow, provided that the level of profit does not change . Of course, the condition of an unchangeable level of profit is very unrealistic. It is rare to find a company that shows the same profit from year to year. Nevertheless, we have nothing more real than the current capitalization of the company and its latest profit. Everything else is just predictions and probable estimates. It is also important to understand that during the purchase of shares, the investor fixates one of the P/E components - the price (P). Therefore, they only need to keep an eye on the earnings (E) and calculate their own P/E without paying attention to the current capitalization. If the level of earnings increases since the purchase of shares, the investor's personal P/E will decrease, and, consequently, the number of years to wait for recoupment. Another thing is when the earnings level, on the contrary, decreases – then an investor will face an increase in their P/E level and, consequently, an increase in the payback period of their own investments. In this case, of course, you have to think about the prospects of such an investment. You can also argue that not all 100% of earnings are spent paying dividends, and therefore you can’t use the level of earnings to calculate the payback period of an investment. Yes, indeed: it is rare for a company to give all of its earnings to dividends. However, the lack of a proper dividend level is not a reason to change anything in the formula or this interpretation at all, because retained earnings are the main fundamental driver of a company's capitalization growth. And whatever the investor misses out on in terms of dividends, they can get it in the form of an increase in the value of the shares they bought. Now, let's discuss how to interpret the obtained P/E value. Intuitively, the lower it is, the better. For example, if an investor bought shares at P/E = 100, it means that they will have to wait 100 years for their investment to pay off. That seems like a risky investment, doesn't it? Of course, one can hope for future earnings growth and, consequently, for a decrease in their personal P/E value. But what if it doesn’t happen? Let me give you an example. For instance, you have bought a country house, and so now you have to get to work via country roads. You have an inexpensive off-road vehicle to do this task. It does its job well and takes you to work via a road that has nothing but potholes. Thus, you get the necessary positive effect this inexpensive thing provides. However, later you learn that they will build a high-speed highway in place of the rural road. And that is exactly what you have dreamed of! After hearing the news, you buy a Ferrari. Now, you will be able to get to work in 5 minutes instead of 30 minutes (and in such a nice car!) However, you have to leave your new sports car in the yard to wait until the road is built. A month later, the news came out that, due to the structure of the road, the highway would be built in a completely different location. A year later your off-road vehicle breaks down. Oh well, now you have to get into your Ferrari and swerve around the potholes. It is not hard to guess what is going to happen to your expensive car after a while. This way, your high expectations for the future road project turned out to be a disaster for your investment in the expensive car. It works the same way with stock investments. If you only consider the company's future earnings forecast, you run the risk of being left alone with just the forecast instead of the earnings. Thus, P/E can serve as a measure of your risk. The higher the P/E value at the time you buy a stock, the more risk you take. But what is the acceptable level of P/E ? Oddly enough, I think the answer to this question depends on your age. When you are just beginning your journey, life gives you an absolutely priceless resource, known as time. You can try, take risks, make mistakes, and then try again. That's what children do as they explore the world around them. Or when young people try out different jobs to find exactly what they like. You can use your time in the stock market in the same manner - by looking at companies with a P/E that suits your age. The younger you are, the higher P/E level you can afford when selecting companies. Conversely, in my opinion, the older you are, the lower P/E level you can afford. To put it simply, you just don’t have as much time to wait for a return on your investment. So, my point is, the stock market perception of a 20-year-old investor should differ from the perception of a 50-year-old investor. If the former can afford to invest with a high payback period, it may be too risky for the latter. Now let's try to translate this reasoning into a specific algorithm. First, let's see how many companies we are able to find in different P/E ranges. As an example, let's take the companies that are traded on the NYSE (April 2023). As you can see from the table, the larger the P/E range, the more companies we can consider. The investor's task comes down to figuring out what P/E range is relevant to them in their current age. To do this, we need data on life expectancy in different countries. As an example, let's take the World Bank Group's 2020 data for several countries: Japan, India, China, Russia, Germany, Spain, the United States, and Brazil. To understand which range of P/E values to choose, you need to subtract your current age from your life expectancy: Life Expectancy - Your Current Age I recommend focusing on the country where you expect to live most of your life. Thus, for a 25-year-old male from the United States, the difference would be: 74,50 - 25 = 49,50 Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 50. For a 60-year-old woman from Japan, the difference would be: 87,74 - 60 = 27,74 Which corresponds with a P/E range of 0 to 30. For a 70-year-old man from Russia, the difference would be: 66,49 - 70 = -3,51 In the case of a negative difference, the P/E range of 0 to 10 should be used. It doesn’t matter which country's stocks you invest in if you expect to live most of your life in Japan, Russia, or the United States. P/E indicates time, and time flows the same for any company and for you. So, this algorithm will allow you to easily calculate your acceptable range of P/E values. However, I want to caution you against making investment decisions based on this ratio alone. A low P/E value does not guarantee that you are free of risks . For example, sometimes the P/E level can drop significantly due to a decline in P (capitalization) because of extraordinary events, whose impact can only be seen in a future income statement (where we would learn the actual value of E - earnings). Nevertheless, the P/E value is a good indicator of the payback period of your investment, which answers the question: when should you consider buying a company's stock ? When the P/E value is in an acceptable range of values for you. But the P/E level doesn’t tell you what company to consider and what price to take. I will tell you about this in the next posts. See you soon!
Editors' picks
NSE:HDFCBANKEducation
by Be_Capy
8
dual top pattern explained in simple form The dual top pattern is a popular technical analysis pattern that can signal a potential trend reversal. This pattern is formed when the price of an asset reaches a resistance level twice and fails to break above it. The two peaks of the pattern look like two mountain tops that are approximately equal in height, with a dip or valley in between them. The neckline of the pattern is drawn by connecting the lows between the two peaks. A breakdown below the neckline is considered a sell signal, as it suggests that the price is likely to continue to decline. The dual top pattern is an important tool for traders because it can help to identify potential trend reversals. However, it's important to confirm the pattern with other indicators and analysis before making trading decisions. For example, traders might look for other technical signals such as a bearish divergence or a break below a key support level to confirm the dual top pattern. Additionally, traders may use fundamental analysis to gain insight into the underlying factors that are driving the price movement of the asset. Overall, the dual top pattern is a powerful tool for traders to identify potential trend reversals, but it's important to approach it with caution and to use other analysis techniques to confirm the signal before making trading decisions. In the below example, a newbie too would be able to learn and practice trend reversal using double top pattern Dual top pattern = potential trend reversal. Look for two mountain tops with a valley in between. The resistance level was reached twice but was not broken Draw the neckline by connecting lows between the peaks. A breakdown below the neckline = sell signal. Remember, the dual top pattern can be a powerful tool for traders to identify potential trend reversals, but it's important to confirm with other indicators and analysis before making trading decisions.
NSE:HDFCLIFEEducation
by pratik2358
1
Some tips for beginners to get started in stock marketHere are some tips for beginners to get started in the stock market and for those looking to become pro traders--------- Start with the basics: Before diving into the stock market, make sure you have a solid understanding of the fundamentals of investing, such as how the stock market works, how to read financial statements, and the different types of investment vehicles available. Set realistic goals: Determine your investment goals and risk tolerance to create a portfolio that suits your needs. Keep in mind that investing is a long-term strategy, and it's essential to have patience and discipline. Do your research: Conduct thorough research on the companies or sectors you plan to invest in. Look for companies with strong financials, a competitive advantage, and a clear growth strategy. Diversify your portfolio: Diversification is key to managing risk in the stock market. Invest in a mix of stocks, bonds, and other assets to spread your risk across different sectors and industries. Keep an eye on the market: Stay up-to-date with the latest news and trends in the stock market. Monitor your investments regularly and be prepared to make adjustments if necessary. Learn from your mistakes: Investing involves risk, and it's normal to make mistakes. Use your losses as an opportunity to learn and refine your strategy. Consider professional help: If you're new to investing or don't have the time or expertise to manage your portfolio, consider working with a financial advisor or a robo-advisor to help you make informed investment decisions. Keep emotions in check: It's easy to get caught up in the emotions of the market, but it's essential to maintain a level head and stick to your investment strategy. Have patience: Successful investing takes time and patience. Avoid chasing quick gains and focus on long-term growth. By following these tips, beginners can start building a solid foundation for investing in the stock market, while more experienced traders can refine their strategies and continue to grow their portfolios.
NSE:TCSEducation
by zeeshankra
1
Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1In one of my first posts , I talked about the main idea of ​​my investment strategy: buy great “things” during the sales season . This rule can be applied to any object of the material world: real estate, cars, clothes, food and, of course, shares of public companies. However, a seemingly simple idea requires the ability to understand both the quality of “things” and their value. Suppose we have solved the issue with quality (*). (*) A very bold assumption, I realize that. However, the following posts will cover this topic in more detail. Be a little patient. So, we know the signs of a high-quality thing and are able to define it skilfully enough. But what about its cost? "Easy-peasy!" you will say, "For example, I know that the Mercedes-Benz plant produces high-quality cars, so I should just find out the prices for a certain model in different car dealerships and choose the cheapest one." "Great plan!" I will say. But what about shares of public companies? Even if you find a fundamentally strong company, how do you know if it is expensive or cheap? Let's imagine that the company is also a machine. A machine that makes profit. It needs to be fed with resources, things are happening in there, some cogs are turning, and as a result we get earnings. This is its main goal and purpose. Each machine has its own name, such as Apple or McDonald's. It has its own resources and mechanisms, but it produces one product – earnings. Now let’s suppose that the capitalization of the company is the value of such a machine. Let's see how much Apple and McDonald's cost today: Apple - $2.538 trillion McDonald's - $202.552 billion We see that Apple is more than 10 times more expensive than McDonald's. But is it really so from an investor's point of view? The paradox is that we can't say for sure that Apple is 10 times more expensive than McDonald's until we divide each company's value by its earnings. Why exactly? Let's count and it will become clear: Apple's diluted net income - $99.803 a year McDonald's diluted net income - $6.177 billion a year Now read this phrase slowly, and if necessary, several times: “The value is what we pay now. Earnings are what we get all the time” . To understand how many dollars we need to pay now for the production of 1 dollar of profit a year, we need to divide the value of the company (its capitalization) by its annual profit. We get: Apple - $25.43 McDonald’s - $32.79 It turns out that in order to get $1 profit a year, for Apple we need to pay $25.43, and for McDonald's - $32.79. Wow! Currently, I believe that Apple appears cheaper than McDonald's. To remember this information better, imagine two machines that produce one-dollar bills at the same rate (once a year). In the case of an Apple machine, you pay $25.43 to issue this bill, and in the case of a McDonald’s machine, you pay $32.70. Which one will you choose? So, if we remove the $ symbol from these numbers, we get the world's most famous financial ratio Price/Earnings or P/E . It shows how much we, as investors, need to pay for the production of 1 unit of annual profit. And pay only once. There are two formulas for calculating this financial ratio: 1. P/E = Price of 1 share / Diluted EPS 2. P/E = Capitalization / Diluted Net Income Whatever formula you use, the result will be the same. By the way, I mainly use the Diluted Net Income instead of the regular one in my calculations. So do not be confused if you see a formula with a Net Income – you can calculate it this way as well. So, in the current publication, I have analyzed one of the interpretations of this financial ratio. But, in fact, there is another interpretation that I really like. It will help you realize which P/E level to choose for yourself. But more on that in the next post. See you!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Be_Capy
What can financial ratios tell us?In the previous post we learned what financial ratios are. These are ratios of various indicators from financial statements that help us draw conclusions about the fundamental strength of a company and its investment attractiveness. In the same post, I listed the financial ratios that I use in my strategy, with formulas for their calculations. Now let's take apart each of them and try to understand what they can tell us. - Diluted EPS . Some time ago I have already told about the essence of this indicator. I would like to add that this is the most influential indicator on the stock market. Financial analysts of investment companies literally compete in forecasts, what will be EPS in forthcoming reports of the company. If they agree that EPS will be positive, but what actually happens is that it is negative, the stock price may fall quite dramatically. Conversely, if EPS comes out above expectations - the stock is likely to rise strongly during the coverage period. - Price to Diluted EPS ratio . This is perhaps the best-known financial ratio for evaluating a company's investment appeal. It gives you an idea of how many years your investment in a stock will pay off if the current EPS is maintained. I have a particular take on this ratio, so I plan to devote a separate publication to it. - Gross margin, % . This is the size of the markup to the cost of the company's product (service) or, in other words, margin . It is impossible to say that small margin is bad, and large - good. Different companies may have different margins. Some sell millions of products by small margins and some sell thousands by large margins. And both of those companies may have the same gross margins. However, my preference is for those companies whose margins grow over time. This means that either the prices of the company's products (services) are going up, or the company is cutting production costs. - Operating expense ratio . This ratio is a great indicator of management's ability to manage a company's expenses. If the revenue increases and this ratio decreases, it means that the management is skillfully optimizing the operating expenses. If it is the other way around, shareholders should wonder how well management is handling current affairs. - ROE, % is a ratio reflecting the efficiency of a company's equity performance. If a company earned 5% of its equity, i.e. ROE = 5%, and the bank deposit rate = 7%, then shareholders have a reasonable question: why invest equity in business development, if it can be placed in a bank deposit and get more, without expending extra effort? In other words, ROE, % reflects the return on invested equity. If it is growing, it is definitely a positive factor for the company and the shareholders. - Days payable . This financial ratio is an excellent indicator of the solvency of the company. We can say that it is the number of days it will take the company to pay all debts to suppliers from its revenue. If the number of days is relatively small, it means that the company has no delays in paying for supplies and therefore no money problems. I consider less than 30 days to be acceptable, but over 90 days is critical. - Days sales outstanding . I already mentioned in my previous posts that when a company is having a bad sales situation, it may even sell its products on credit. Such debts accumulate in accounts receivable. Obviously, large accounts receivable are a risk for the company, because the debts may simply not be paid back. For ease of control over this indicator, they invented such a financial ratio as "Days sales outstanding". We can say that this is the number of days it will take the company to earn revenue equivalent to the accounts receivable. It's one thing if the receivables are 365 daily revenue and another if it's only 10 daily revenue. Like the previous ratio: less than 30 days is acceptable to me, but over 90 days is critical. - Inventory to revenue ratio . This is the amount of inventory in relation to revenue. Since inventory includes not only raw materials but also unsold products, this ratio can indicate sales problems. The more inventory a company has in relation to revenue, the worse it is. A ratio below 0.25 is acceptable to me; a ratio above 0.5 indicates that there are problems with sales. - Current ratio . This is the ratio of current assets to current liabilities. Remember, we said that current assets are easier and faster to sell than non-current, so they are also called quick assets. In the event of a crisis and lack of profit in the company, quick assets can be an excellent help to make payments on debts and settlements with suppliers. After all, they can be sold quickly enough to pay off these liabilities. To understand the size of this "safety cushion", the current ratio is calculated. The larger it is, the better. For me, a suitable current ratio is 2 or higher. But below 1 it does not suit me. - Interest coverage . We already know that loans play an important role in a company's operations. However, I am convinced that this role should not be the main one. If a company spends all of its profits to pay interest on loans, it is working for the bank, not for the shareholders. To find out how tangible interest on loans is for the company, the "Interest coverage" ratio was invented. According to the income statement, interest on loans is paid out of operating income. So if we divide the operating income by this interest, we get this ratio. It shows us how many times more the company earns than it spends on debt service. To me, the acceptable coverage ratio should be above 6, and below 3 is weak. - Debt to revenue ratio . This is a useful ratio that shows the overall picture of the company's debt situation. It can be interpreted the following way: it shows how much revenue should be earned in order to close all the debts. A debt to revenue ratio of less than 0.5 is positive. It means that half (or even less) of the annual revenue will be enough to close the debt. A debt to revenue ratio higher than 1 is considered a serious problem since the company does not even have enough annual revenue to pay off all of its debts. So, the financial ratios greatly simplify the process of fundamental analysis, because they allow you to quickly draw conclusions about the financial condition of the company, without looking up and down at its statements. You just look at ratios of key indicators and draw conclusions. In the next post, I will tell you about the king of all financial ratios - the Price to Diluted EPS ratio, or simply P/E. See you soon!
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by Be_Capy
Financial ratios: digesting them togetherI hope that after studying the series of posts about company financial statements, you stopped being afraid of them. I suggest we build on that success and dive into the fascinating world of financial ratios. What is it? Let's look at the following example. Let's say you open up a company's balance sheet and see that the amount of debt is $100 million. Do you think this is a lot or a little? To me, it's definitely a big deal. But can we say the company has a huge debt based only on how we feel about it? I don't think so. However, if you find that a company that generates $10 billion in annual revenue has $100 million in debt (i.e. only 1% of revenue), what would you say then? That's objectively small, isn't it? It turns out that without correlating one indicator with another, we cannot draw any objective conclusion. This correlation is called the Financial Ratio . The recipe for a normal financial ratio is simple: we take one or two indicators from the financial statements, add some market data, put it all into a formula that includes a division operation - we obtain the financial ratio. In TradingView you can find a lot of financial ratios in the section Financials -> Statistics . However, I only use a few financial ratios which give me an idea about the financial situation of the company and its value: What can you notice when looking at this table? - Profit and revenue are frequent components of financial ratios because they are universal units of measurement for other reporting components. Just as length can be measured in feet and weight in pounds, a company's debts can be measured in revenues. - Some financial ratios are ratios, some are percentages, and some are days. - There are no financial ratios in the table whose data source is the Cash Flow Statement. The fact is that cash flows are rarely used in financial ratios because they can change drastically from quarter to quarter. This is especially true for financial and investment cash flow. That's why I recommend analyzing cash flows separately. In my next post, I'll break down each financial ratio from this table in detail and explain why I use them specifically. See you soon!
Editors' picks
NSE:BANKNIFTY1!Education
by Be_Capy
1
Cash flow vibrationsIn the previous post we started to analyze the Cash flow statement. From it, we learned about the existence of three cash flows - operating cash flow, financial cash flow, and investment cash flow. Like three rivers, they fill the company's "lake of cash" (that is, they go with a "+" sign). However, there are three other rivers that flow out of our lake, preventing it from expanding indefinitely. What are their names? They have absolutely identical names: operating cash flow, financial cash flow, and investment cash flow (and they go with a "-" sign). Why so? Because all of the company's outgoing payments can also be divided into these three rivers: Operating payments include the purchase of raw materials, the payment of wages - everything related to the production and support of the product. Financial payments include repayment of debt and interest on it, payment of dividends, or buyback of shares from shareholders. Investment payments include the purchase of non-current assets (say, the purchase of additional buildings or shares in another company). If the inflows from the three rivers on the left are greater than the outflows into the rivers on the right, then our lake will increase in volume, meaning that the company's cash balances will grow. If the outflows into the three rivers on the right are greater than the inflows from the rivers on the left, the lake will become shallow and eventually dry up. So, the cash flow statement shows how much our lake has increased or decreased over the period (quarter or year). This report can be presented as four entries: Each value of A, B, and C is the difference between what came into our lake from the river and what flowed out of the lake by the river of the same name. That is, the value can be either positive or negative. How can we interpret the meanings of the different flows? Let's break down each of them. Operating cash flow . In a fundamentally strong company, it is the most stable and powerful river. The implication is that it should be the main source of "water" for our lake. Negative operating cash flow is an indicator of serious problems with the business because it means it is not generating money. Investment cash flow . This is the most unpredictable river, as sometimes it can be very powerful and sometimes it can flow like a thin trickle. This is due to the fact that the purchase or sale of non-current assets (recall that these may be buildings, equipment, shares in other companies) does not occur as regularly as operational activities. A sudden negative investment flow tells us about some big purchase. Shareholders do not always view such events positively, as they may consider it an unwise expenditure or a threat to dividend payments. Therefore, they may start to sell their shares, which causes their price to drop. If a big purchase is perceived as an opportunity to reach the next level and capture more market share, then we may see exactly the opposite effect - an increase in share price. Financial cash flow . A negative value of this cash flow can be seen as a very positive signal because it means that the company is either actively reducing its debt to creditors, or using the money to pay dividends, or spending the money to buy its own stock (*), or maybe all of these together. (*) Here you may ask, why would a company buy its own stock? Management sometimes does this when they are confident in the success of their business and want to support the growth of their stock. The company becomes a major buyer of its own stock for some time so that it begins to grow. The process itself is called share buyback . Positive financial cash flow, on the other hand, signals either an increase in debt or the sale of its own stock. As far as debt is concerned, you can't say that loans are bad for business. But there has to be a measure. But the sale by a company of its own shares is already an alarming signal to the current shareholders. It means that the company doesn't have enough money coming out of operating cash flow. There is another type of cash flow that is not a separate "river," but is used as information about how much cash the company has left to meet its obligations to creditors and shareholders. This is Free cash flow . It is simple to calculate: just subtract one of the components of the investment cash flow from the operating cash flow. This component is called Capital expenditures (often abbreviated as CAPEX). Capital expenditures include outgoing payments that go toward the purchase of non-current assets , such as land, buildings, equipment, etc. (Free cash flow = Operating cash flow - Capital expenditures) Free cash flow can be characterized as the "living" money that a company has created over a period, which can be used to repay loans, pay dividends, and buyback stocks from shareholders. If free cash flow is very weak or even negative, it is a reason for creditors, shareholders and investors to think about how the company is doing business. This concludes my discussion of the cash flow statement topic. Next time, let's talk about the magic ratios that you can get from a company's financial statements. They greatly facilitate the process of fundamental analysis and are widely used by investors around the world. We will talk about the so-called Financial Ratios . See you soon!
NSE:TATAMOTORSEducation
by Be_Capy
2
Cash flow statement or Three great riversToday we're going to start taking apart the third and final report that the company publishes each quarter and year - it's Cash flow statement. Remember, when we studied the balance sheet , we learned that one of the company's assets is cash in accounts. This is a very important asset because if the company doesn't have money in the account, it can't buy raw materials, pay employees' salaries, etc. What, in general, is a "company" in the eyes of an accountant? These are assets that have been purchased on credit or with equity, for the purpose of earning a net income for its shareholders or investing that income in further growth. That is, the source of cash in a company's account may be profits . But why do I say "may be"? The point is that it's possible to have a situation where profits are positive on the income statement, but there is no money physically in the account. To make sense of this, let's remember the workshop I use in all the examples. Suppose our master sold all of his boots on credit. That is, he was promised payment, but later. He ended up with a receivable in assets and, most interestingly, generated revenue. The accountant will calculate the revenue for these sales, despite the fact that the shop hasn't actually received the money yet. Then the accountant will deduct the expenses from the revenue, and the result will be a profit. But there is zero money in the account. So what should our master do? The orders are coming in, but there is nothing to pay for the raw materials. In such circumstances, while the master is waiting for the repayment of debts from customers, he himself borrows from the bank to top up his current account with money. Now let us make his situation more complicated. Let us assume that the money borrowed he still does not have enough, and the bank does not give more. The only thing left is to sell some of his property, that is, some of his assets. Remember, when we took apart the assets of the workshop , the master had shares in an oil company. This is something he could sell without hurting the production process. Then there is enough money in the checking account to produce boots uninterrupted. Of course, this is a wildly exaggerated example, since more often than not, profits are money, after all, and not the virtual records of an accountant. Nevertheless, I gave this example to make it clear that cash in the account and profit are related, but still different concepts. So what does the cash flow statement show? Let's engage our imagination again. Imagine a lake with three rivers flowing into it on the left and three rivers flowing out on the right. That is, on one side the lake feeds on water, and on the other side it gives it away. So the asset called "cash" on the balance sheet is the lake. And the amount of cash is the amount of water in that lake. Let's now name the three rivers that feed our lake. Let's call the first river the operating cash flow . When we receive the money from product sales, the lake is filled with water from the first river. The second river on the left is called the financial cash flow . This is when we receive financing from outside, or, to put it simply, we borrow. Since this is money received into the company's account, it also fills our lake. The third river let's call investment cash flow . This is the flow of money we get from the sale of the company's non-current assets. In the example with the master, these were assets in the form of oil company stock. Their sale led to the replenishment of our notional money lake. So we have a lake of money, which is filled thanks to three flows: operational, financial, and investment. That sounds great, but our lake is not only getting bigger, but it's also getting smaller through the three outgoing flows. I'll tell you about that in my next post. See you soon!
Editors' picks
NSE:HDFCBANKEducation
by Be_Capy
8
Stock Market Risks: A Brief Guide to Get ThroughThe stock market can be an exciting and potentially lucrative place to invest, but it also carries significant risks, particularly in the futures and options segment. While the potential for high returns is a major draw, it is essential to understand the risks and take appropriate measures to manage them effectively. Risks in Futures and Options Segment Futures and options are derivative products that allow investors to buy or sell a particular asset at a specific price on a future date. This segment can be risky due to the potential for high leverage, meaning that a small investment can lead to significant losses or gains. Moreover, futures and options are often complex instruments that require a solid understanding of the underlying asset. Risk Aspects in Investment Investment in the stock market also carries inherent risks, such as market volatility, company-specific risk, and currency risk, among others. These risks can impact the overall performance of your portfolio in the long run. Risk Aspects in Day Trading In day trading, an instrument is bought and sold on the same day so as to make a quick profit. While day trading can be profitable, it also carries significant risks due to the high volatility and leverage involved. Day traders need to have a deep understanding of the market and should use technical analysis to make informed decisions. Step-by-Step Guide for Surviving the Stock Market 1. Educate Yourself: The first step to surviving the stock market is to educate yourself about the risks involved, market trends, and investment strategies. You can attend seminars, read books, and consult with experienced investors or brokers. 2. Set Realistic Goals: Setting realistic financial goals based on your investment horizon, risk appetite, and financial situation is crucial. This not only helps in avoiding impulsive trading but also in staying focussed. 3. Diversify Your Investments: Diversifying your portfolio across different sectors, geographies, and asset classes can help mitigate risks and balance your returns. 4. Have a Disciplined Approach: Avoid chasing quick returns or taking unnecessary risks. Have a disciplined approach to investing, and stick to your investment plan. 5. Manage Your Risks: Use risk management tools such as stop-loss orders and limit orders to minimize losses. Moreover, one should always try to invest only that much money which one can afford to lose. Other than that there is always need to maintain a cash buffer for emergencies. In conclusion, the stock market carries significant risks, especially in the futures and options segment. However, with a disciplined approach, a sound investment strategy, and effective risk management, new and struggling traders and investors can survive and thrive in the stock market. Thanks for reading.
Editors' picks
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
10
What should I look at in the Income statement?The famous value investor, Mohnish Pabrai , said in one of his lectures that when he visited Warren Buffett, he noticed a huge handbook with the financial statements of thousands of public companies. It's a very dull reading, isn't it? Indeed, if you focus on every statement item - you'll waste a lot of time and sooner or later fall asleep. However, if you look at the large volumes of information from the perspective of an intelligent investor, you can find great interest in the process. It is wise to identify for yourself the most important statement items and monitor them in retrospect (from quarter to quarter). In previous posts, we've broken down the major items on the Income statement and the EPS metric: Part 1: The Income statement: the place where profit lives Part 2: My precious-s-s-s EPS Let's now highlight the items that interest me first. These are: - Total revenue The growth of revenue shows that the company is doing a good job of marketing the product, it is in high demand, and the business is increasing its scale. - Gross profit This profit is identical to the concept of margin. Therefore, an increase in gross profit indicates an increase in the margin of the business, i.e. its profitability. - Operating expenses This item is a good demonstration of how the management team is dealing with cost reductions. If operating expenses are relatively low and decreasing while revenue is increasing, that's terrific work by management, and you can give it top marks. - Interest expense Interest on debts should not consume a company's profits, otherwise, it will not work for the shareholders, but for the banks. Therefore, this item should also be closely monitored. - Net income It's simple here. If a company does not make a profit for its shareholders, they will dump its shares*. *Now, of course, you can dispute with me and give the example of, let's say, Tesla shares. There was a time when they were rising, even when the company was making losses. Indeed, Elon Musk's charisma and grand plans did the trick - investors bought the company's stock at any price. You could say that our partner Mr. Market was truly crazy at the time. I'm sure you can find quite a few such examples. All such cases exist because investors believe in future profits and don't see current ones. However, it is important to remember that sooner or later Mr. Market sobers up, the hype around the company goes away, and its losses stay with you. - EPS Diluted You could say it's the money the company earns per common share. So, I'm finishing up a series of posts related to the Income statement. This statement shows how much the company earns and how much it spends over a period (quarter or year). We've also identified the items that you should definitely watch out for in this report. That's all for today. In the next post, we will break down the last of the three financial statements of a public company - the Cash flow statement. Goodbye and see you later!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Be_Capy
My precious-s-s-s EPSIn the previous post , we began looking at the Income statement that the company publishes for each quarter and year. The report contains important information about different types of profits : gross profit, operating income, pretax income, and net income. Net income can serve both as a source of further investment in the business and as a source of dividend payments to shareholders (of course, if a majority of shareholders vote to pay dividends). Now let's break down the types of stock on which dividends can be paid. There are only two: preferred stock and common stock . We know from my earlier post that a stock gives you the right to vote at a general meeting of shareholders, the right to receive dividends if the majority voted for them, and the right to part of the bankrupt company's assets if something is left after paying all debts to creditors. So, this is all about common stock. But sometimes a company, along with its common stock, also issues so-called preferred stock. What advantages do they have over common stock? - They give priority rights to receive dividends. That is, if shareholders have decided to pay dividends, the owners of preferred shares must receive dividends, but the owners of common shares may be deprived because of the same decision of the shareholders. - The company may provide for a fixed amount of dividend on preferred shares. That is, if the decision was made to pay a dividend, preferred stockholders will receive the fixed dividend that the company established when it issued the shares. - If the company goes bankrupt, the assets that remain after the debts are paid are distributed to the preferred shareholders first, and then to the common shareholders. In exchange for these privileges, the owners of such shares do not have the right to vote at the general meeting of shareholders. It should be said that preferred shares are not often issued, but they do exist in some companies. The specific rights of shareholders of preferred shares are prescribed in the founding documents of the company. Now back to the income statement. Earlier we looked at the concept of net income. Since most investments are made in common stock, it would be useful to know what net income would remain if dividends were paid on preferred stock (I remind you: this depends on the decision of the majority of common stockholders). To do this, the income statement has the following line item: - Net income available to common stockholders (Net income available to common stockholders = Net income - Dividends on preferred stock) When it is calculated, the amount of dividends on preferred stock is subtracted from net income. This is the profit that can be used to pay dividends on common stock. However, shareholders may decide not to pay dividends and use the profits to further develop and grow the company. If they do so, they are acting as true investors. I recall the investing formula from my earlier post : give something now to get more in the future . And so it is here. Instead of deciding to spend profits on dividends now, shareholders may decide to invest profits in the business and get more dividends in the future. Earnings per share or EPS is used to understand how much net income there is per share. EPS is calculated very simply. As you can guess, all you have to do is divide the net income for the common stock by its number: - EPS ( Earnings per share = Net income for common stock / Number of common shares issued). There is an even more accurate measure that I use in my analysis, which is EPS Diluted or Diluted earnings per share : - EPS Diluted ( Diluted earnings per share = Net income for common stock / (Number of common shares issued + Issuer stock options, etc.)). What does "diluted" earnings mean, and when does it occur? For example, to incentivize management to work efficiently, company executives may be offered bonuses not in monetary terms, but in shares that the company will issue in the future. In such a case, the staff would be interested in the stock price increase and would put more effort into achieving profit growth. These additional issues are called Employee stock options (or ESO ). Because the amount of these stock bonuses is known in advance, we can calculate diluted earnings per share. To do so, we divide the profit not by the current number of common shares already issued, but by the current number plus possible additional issues. Thus, this indicator shows a more accurate earnings-per-share figure, taking into account all dilutive factors. The value of EPS or EPS Diluted is so significant for investors that if it does not meet their expectations or, on the contrary, exceeds them, the market may experience significant fluctuations in the share price. Therefore, it is always important to keep an eye on the EPS value. In TradingView the EPS indicator as well as its forecasted value can be seen by clicking on the E button next to the timeline. We will continue to discuss this topic in the next publication. See you soon!
Editors' picks
NSE:RELIANCEEducation
by Be_Capy
4
The income statement: the place where profit livesToday we are going to look at the second of the three main reports that a company publishes during the earnings season, the income statement. Just like the balance sheet, it is published every quarter and year. This is how we can find out how much a company earns and how much it spends. The difference between revenues and expenses is called profit . I would like to highlight this term "profit" again, because there is a very strong correlation between the dynamics of the stock price and the profitability of the company. Let's take a look at the stock price charts of companies that are profitable and those that are unprofitable. 3 charts of unprofitable : 3 charts of profitable : As we can see, stocks of unprofitable companies have a hard enough time growing, while profitable companies, on the contrary, are getting fundamental support to grow their stocks. We know from the previous post that a company's Equity grows due to Retained Earnings. And if Equity grows, so do Assets. Recall: Assets are equal to the sum of a company's Equity and Liabilities. Thus, growing Assets, like a winch attached to a strong tree, pull our machine (= stock price) higher and higher. This is, of course, a simplified example, but it still helps to realize that a company's financial performance directly affects its value. Now let's look at how earnings are calculated in the income statement. The general principle is this: if we subtract all expenses from revenue, we get profit . Revenue is calculated quite simply - it is the sum of all goods and services sold over a period (a quarter or a year). But expenses are different, so in the income statement we will see one item called "Total revenue" and many items of expenses. These expenses are deducted from revenue gradually (top-down). That is, we don't add up all the expenses and then subtract the total expenses from the revenue - no. We deduct each expense item individually. So at each step of this subtraction, we get different kinds of profit : gross profit, operating income, pretax income, net income. So let's look at the report itself. - Total revenue This is, as we've already determined, the sum of all goods and services sold for the period. Or you could put it another way: this is all the money the company received from sales over a period of time. Let me say right off the bat that all of the numbers in this report are counted for a specific period. In the quarterly report, the period, respectively, is 1 quarter, and in the annual report, it is 1 year. Remember my comparison of the balance sheet with the photo ? When we analyze the balance sheet, we see a photo (data snapshot) on the last day of the reporting period, but not so in the income statement. There we see the accumulated amounts for a specific period (i.e. from the beginning of the reporting quarter to the end of that quarter or from the beginning of the reporting year to the end of that year). - Cost of goods sold Since materials and other components are used to make products, accountants calculate the amount of costs directly related to the production of products and place them in this item. For example, the cost of raw materials for making shoes would fall into this item, but the cost of salaries for the accountant who works for that company would not. You could say that these costs are costs that are directly related to the quantity of goods produced. - Gross profit (Gross profit = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold) If we subtract the cost of goods sold from the total revenue, we get gross profit. - Operating expenses (Operating expenses are costs that are not part of the cost of production) Operating expenses include fixed costs that have little or no relation to the amount of output. These may include rental payments, staff salaries, office support costs, advertising costs, and so on. - Operating income (Operating income = Gross profit - Operating expenses) If we subtract operating expenses from gross profit, we get operating income. Or you can calculate it this way: Operating income = Total revenue - Cost of goods sold - Operating expenses. - Non-operating income (this item includes all income and expenses that are not related to regular business operations) It is interesting, that despite its name, non-operating income and operating income can have negative values. For this to happen, it is sufficient that the corresponding expenses exceed the income. This is a clear demonstration of how businessmen revere profit and income, but avoid the word "loss" in every possible way. Apparently, a negative operating income sounds better. Below is a look at two popular components of non-operating income. - Interest expense This is the interest the company pays on loans. - Unusual income/expense This item includes unusual income minus unusual expenses. "Unusual" means not repeated in the course of regular activities. Let's say you put up a statue of the company's founder - that's an unusual expense. And if it was already there, and it was sold, that's unusual income. - Pretax income (Pretax income = Operating income + Non-operating income) If we add or subtract (depending on whether it is negative or positive) non-operating income to operating income, we get pretax income. - Income tax Income tax reduces our profit by the tax rate. - Net income (Net income = Pretax income - Income tax) Here we get to the income from which expenses are no longer deducted. That is why it is called "net". It is the bottom line of any company's performance over a period. Net income can be positive or negative. If it's positive, it's good news for investors, because it can go either to pay dividends or to further develop the company and increase profits. This concludes part one of my series of posts on the Income statement. In the next parts, we'll break down how net income is distributed to holders of different types of stock: preferred and common. See you soon!
Editors' picks
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by Be_Capy
2
At the beginning was the EquityWith this post, I am concluding the analysis of the company's balance sheet. You can read the previous parts here: Part 1 - Balance sheet: taking the first steps Part 2 - Assets I prioritize Part 3 - A sense of debt Now we know that every company has assets on one side of the balance sheet and liabilities and equity on the other side. If you add liabilities and equity together you get the sum of assets. And vice versa, if you subtract all of the company's liabilities from the assets, you get what? That's right, you get Equity . Let's discuss this important component of the balance sheet. When a company is first established, it must have initial equity. This is the money with which any business starts. It is used for the first expenses of the new company. In the case of our workshop , the equity was the master's savings, with which he bought the garage, equipment, raw materials and other assets to start his business. As sales progressed, the workshop received the revenue and reimbursed expenses. Whatever was left over was used to boost the company's profit. So, our master invested his capital in the business to increase it through profits. Making a profit is the main purpose for which the company's assets work, loans are raised, and equity is invested. Let's see which balance sheet items are in the Equity group: - Common stock (The sum of nominal values of common stock issued). Remember, when our master decided to turn his company into a stock company , he issued 1 million shares at a price of $1,000 per share. So $1,000 per share is the par value of the stock. And the sum of the nominal values of the stocks issued would be $1 billion. - Retained earnings . It is clear from the name of this item that it contains profits that have not been distributed. We will find out where it can be allocated in the next post, when we start analyzing the income statement. - Accumulated other comprehensive income (Profit or loss on open investments). The profit or loss of a company can be not only from its core business, but also, for example, from the rise or fall in the value of other companies' shares that it bought. In our example, the workshop has oil company shares. The financial result from the revaluation of these shares is recorded in this item. So, the equity is necessary for the company to invest it in the business and make a profit. Then the retained earnings themselves become equity, which is reinvested to make even more profits. It's a continuous cycle of the company's life that bets on equity growth. Which balance sheet items are of interest to me in the Equity group? Of course, I am interested in the profit-related items: retained earnings and profit or loss on open investments. The sum of nominal share values is a static indicator, so it can hardly tell us anything. However, it is better to use information from the income statement rather than the balance sheet to analyze earnings, because only this report allows us to see the entire structure of a company's income and expenses. So we conclude the general analysis of a company's balance sheet. To fully understand why it is needed, let's engage our imagination once again. Do you remember the example with the hotel ? We imagined that a joint stock company is a hotel with identical rooms, where you, as an investor, can buy a certain number of rooms (one room = one share). Think about what you would want to look at first before buying? Personally, I'd rather see photos of the rooms. So, the balance sheet can be compared to such photos that we get from the hotel at quarterly and annual intervals. Of course, in such a case, the hotel will try to use special effects as much as possible in order to improve investors' impression of the photos released. However, if we track and compare photos over multiple periods, we can still understand: is our hotel evolving, or have we been watching the same couch in a standard room for 10 years in a row. We can say that the balance sheet is a "photo" of the company's assets, debts and equity at the balance sheet date. And the balance sheet items I've chosen are what I look at first in this photo. In the next series of posts, we will break down an equally important report, the income statement, and explore the essence of earnings. See you soon!
NSE:TATAMOTORSEducation
by Be_Capy
A sense of debtIn the previous two posts, we explored how assets are grouped in a company's balance sheet. Part 1: Balance sheet: taking the first steps Part 2: Assets I prioritize Now let's deal with Liabilities and Stockholders' equity. Let me remind you that these are the sources of funds that give a company assets. And indeed, with what funds can a company have assets? Either with its own funds (stockholders' equity), or with funds borrowed (liabilities). For simplicity, we will call them Debts and Equity. Debts can vary in maturity, so we've divided them into two categories in the balance sheet: Current liabilities and Non-current liabilities . Current liabilities include: - Current debts are debts that need to be paid back within a year after they are incurred. Do you remember our master took a loan from the bank to make a large batch of boots? That loan will be recorded in this item (assuming the loan is up to one year in repayment). - Accounts payable (debts to suppliers of goods and services). You can borrow money not only from the bank, but also from your suppliers, for example. In other words he is giving you raw materials now, but is ready to accept payment later. Such debts are reflected in this item. - Accrued liabilities (Provisions for future expenses on unpaid bills in the form of wages, rent, taxes). The word "debt" is in many ways synonymous with the word "liability." A company may have many such liabilities: payment of wages, rent and taxes. In essence, these are also debts to be paid during the year. For convenience, cash reserves are set aside for them. They are spent at the moment when the payment is due. Such reserves are recorded in this item. - Other current liabilities . Debts or liabilities with a maturity of up to one year that are not included in the categories above are shown here. Non-current liabilities include: - Long term debt - these are debts that need to be paid back more than one year after they are incurred. If our master had borrowed from the bank for two years, such a loan would fall into this category. - Deferred taxes liabilities (Provision for taxes to be paid in a future period). Tax rates are subject to change, and new taxes may come into effect in a year or more. But even now, the company can set aside money for future taxes. - Other long term liabilities . Here are debts or liabilities with a maturity of more than one year that are not included in the categories above. In short, debts are loans taken by the company, provisions for tax liabilities, and debts to suppliers. The amount of debt is a very important indicator in the fundamental analysis of a company. On the one hand, the mere presence of debt is not scary, because it demonstrates that banks trust the company and give it loans for development. On the other hand, a substantial amount of debt can cause serious problems and losses in the period of weak sales of goods or services. Banks are unlikely to suspend interest charges on loans if a company is doing poorly. This means the company will incur expenses in the form of interest on loans that are not offset by revenue. Also a reminder that if a company goes bankrupt, the owners of the stock get the assets of that company only after all debts have been settled . If the debts are so large that they exceed the value of all the property, the shareholders get nothing. For these reasons, I select companies with small debt loads. What liabilities do I focus on? - Current debt; - Accounts payable; - Long term debt. For me, these are the items that most clearly reflect the company's debt situation. In the next post, we will conclude our study of the balance sheet and look at the basic source of assets, which is Equity. See you soon!
NSE:HDFCBANKEducation
by Be_Capy
Assets I prioritizeIn the previous post Balance sheet: taking the first steps , we began parsing the balance sheet of the imaginary workshop and focused on assets. Today, I suggest looking at what types of tangible and intangible property are classified as current assets and what types are classified as non-current assets. Current assets contain the following items: - Cash and cash equivalents - in our case we can include a safe with money, which, in general, corresponds to the company's cash in its current bank accounts. - Net receivables - here we would include the IOU from a friend. That is everything that clients owe the company for goods or services. - Inventory - this includes a bag with leather, rubber and thread. That is all raw materials, from which goods are made, as well as stocks of finished goods in warehouses. - Other current assets - this can include other current assets that do not belong to the previous items. Non-current assets include the following items: - Net property, plant and equipment - we include a garage, table, chair, sewing machine and tools. Depreciation is deducted from the original cost of the property when reporting it. Depreciation is the cost to repair and renew the property. - Equity and other investments - in our example, this would include oil company stocks (and in general, any company investment in stocks or bonds of other companies). - Goodwill - let's say our company wants to buy another company and is willing to pay $11 million for it. The assets of the other company are $10 million, and the debts that our company will have to pay for the other company are $2 million. So the assets net of debt are $8 million. After the purchase, the assets and debts of that company will become the assets and debts of our company. So, the difference between the purchase amount of $11 million and the net assets of $8 million is a goodwill equal to $3 million. For our workshop, this item is not relevant, as it didn't buy any company. Nevertheless, remember that goodwill is the difference between the purchase price of another company and its net assets. - Intangible assets - this can include the value of the customer base in the master's phone book, as well as any other assets that have no tangible basis (such as purchased trademarks). - Other long term assets - this item includes other non-current assets that don't belong to the previous items. Once we understand which asset belongs to which item, its value (or rather, the sum of the values of all assets belonging to this item) is written in the balance sheet. For example, let's say we've determined that the Inventory item includes leather, rubber, and thread. The accountant adds up the value of the leather, rubber, and thread and writes the total amount in monetary terms against the Inventory item. This is how the numbers appear in the balance sheet. Now let's discuss which balance sheet items we should pay attention to during the fundamental analysis of assets. I have formulated the following rule for myself: pay attention to the assets that are directly related to the sale of the company's goods or services . If a company does not sell its goods or services well, its bank account balance will shrink, huge inventories of unsold goods and raw materials will accumulate in its warehouses, and accounts receivable (customers debt) will grow. The fact is that when sales are bad, the company is ready to lend out goods as debt. If sales are going well, then, on the contrary, the money in the account will grow, and accounts receivable and inventory will start to shrink. All other assets can influence sales only indirectly, so I don't consider them. Thus, I have identified my priority assets : - Cash and cash equivalents; - Net receivables; - Inventory. As you can see, they are all quick current assets. Non-current assets only indirectly affect sales, so they are not a priority benchmark for me. In the next post, we'll start looking at the right side of our disclosed book, called the Balance sheet. That's where the company's liabilities and equity belong. See you next time!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Be_Capy
Balance sheet: taking the first stepsToday we are going to start learning about fundamental analysis of companies. In my opinion, this is the basic skill you should have when picking stocks to invest in. Once again, the main principle of the strategy I follow is to pick outstanding companies and buy their stocks at a discounted price. You may have noticed that first-class products are occasionally discounted in stores, but not for long, because such products are quickly swept off the shelves, and almost the next day the price is again without a discount. Exactly the same strategy is applicable to the stock market. Now, fundamental analysis is a method for picking outstanding companies (that is, companies with strong fundamentals). How can we tell if a company has a strong foundation or not? There is only one way - by analyzing its financial statements. Every listed company has to disclose this information publicly on its website. In other words, we don't have to extract that information - it is publicly available. You can also find it on TradingView and see the data in dynamics. What is the content of this information? The company publishes three reports : balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. The balance sheet, like the order book , can be presented as an open book. The left side of the book lists the company's assets and their valuation in monetary terms, and the right side lists the company's liabilities and equity , and their valuation in monetary terms. What are company assets? These are everything that belongs to the company: buildings, equipment, trademark, shares of other companies, cash in the cash register. In general, all tangible and intangible property of a company are assets. What are liabilities and equity of a company? These are the sources of funds that gave rise to the assets. For example, if you bought a computer for $1000 with your savings, then the computer is an asset, and your own savings are equity. If a friend lent you $100, and you put the money in your pocket, the money in your pocket is an asset, and the debt to your friend is a liability. Based on these examples, you can make an imaginary balance sheet: As you can see, the entry in the balance sheet is the name of the asset, liability or equity and their monetary value. Assets, liabilities and equity are inextricably linked, so the sum of assets is always equal to the sum of liabilities and equity . If we were to write every asset in this way on the balance sheet of a large company, it would turn into an endless book of hundreds of pages. However, if we look at the balance sheets of huge corporations, they can fit on a single sheet of paper. This is due to the fact that over time invented to group the same type of balance sheet items. Let's look at how the company's balance sheet items are grouped: Don't be frightened. Now we will try to digest this table with the help of an example we are already familiar with. Let's think back to our master cobbler , specifically to the period when he was just starting out. Let's assume what exactly he had at that time: a garage, a table, a chair, a sewing machine, tools, a bag with leather and rubber, thread, a safe with money, a phone book with clients' contact information, a IOU from his friend, and oil company stocks. I have now listed the assets of our master, or should I say, of his workshop. I should note that what is listed here is exactly what is directly related to his business. Even the money in the safe, the debt from his friend, and the oil company shares came about because of the existence of the business. Let's say the master's apartment or the bicycle he rides in the park are not assets, because they don't belong to the workshop. They belong to the master, but not to his business. Let's categorize the workshop's assets into groups. There are two big groups: Current assets and Non-current assets . How should you distinguish them? The general rule is this: Current assets are what a company's product is made of, and what can turn into money in the near future, so they can be called quick assets . Non-current assets are where and with what we create the product, and what can turn into money not so soon (so they can be called long-term assets ). So, here we go: - A garage, a table, a chair are where we create a product, so a long-term (non-current) asset. - A sewing machine, tools - this is what we use to create a product - a long-term (non-current) asset. - A bag with leather and rubber and thread is what a product is made from - a quick (current) asset. - A safe with money is already real money - a quick (current) asset. - A phone book with customer numbers - it's hard to sell it to someone quickly, such assets are also called intangible assets and are placed in long-term (non-current) assets. - IOU from a friend, i.e. a friend bought boots from a master, but can pay only after receiving his salary - a quick (current) asset. - Shares of an oil company - let's assume that a customer once paid for the boots with them - a long-term (non-current) asset. So, we've just categorized the master's assets into two groups: current assets (quick assets) and non-current assets (long-term assets). In the next post, we'll break down the components of these two large groups. See you then!
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