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Inside Candle Strategy using the 20MA (BANKNIFTY)This strategy does not work 100% of the time, but it does offer a good risk reward ratio. If the pattern occurs in the first 15 min, wait for about an hour and observe the price action, and take a trade only after the breakout. Taking a trade too early may result in your SL getting triggered too soon. You want to try and make it harder for the market to trigger your stop loss, hence you should set it just above important levels and not exactly on them.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by ArcherDAVIS
3
YOUR EDGE: THE ORB STRATEGYWhat would be trading without an edge? Would it be like tossing a coin with 50% chances of getting a head or a tail. I dun think so. I think it would be around 25%, that too if you dun mess with your trades. So what is an edge? In broader sense, the edge is your trading plan which includes predefined entries and exits. In narrower sense, it is technical analysis (TA). In my opinion TA is just a part of your edge -- trading plan. Your edge would help you to define the three elements of the trade, that is, When, What and How. Which means What should I trade? When should I trade? and How should I trade? It's lame that most part of our learning concentrates on just 'How' element. Whereas most of us (even the experienced traders) find it very difficult to deal with 'What' part of the edge, that is, what should I trade today? In this article I am going to introduce to you the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy. I would try to elaborate all the above three elements of the ORB edge. The ORB Plan Layout How While there are many versions of ORB, I personally prefer the first 5 min version. Let the stock trade for the first 5 min. Just Mark the high and the low. What I prefer this strategy in top Gainers (not losers). Just wait for a few minutes after the market opens and look for top gainers on NSE website (I would like you to prefer if you have filters on your own software). Choose the gainers which have been trading outside the previous day's range. When Place a buy stop order above the high of the chosen stocks and sleep until it is hit :) As soon as it is hit place a stop below the low of the first 5 min bar. Hunt for your targets: Look for 1:1 or 1:2 target depending on the stop loss. If the stop is wide then go for just 1:1 or else go for 1:2 Tips for short plays: This strategy works well on long trades rather than on the short side. As on the short side the action, most of the times, is very huge in the first 5 min bar which increases the risk on the trade. However you may apply ORB on the short side If the action is not very strong on the first bar and the stock actually develops a range for the first 30 minutes or so and then breaks it. Money management: There could be another full post on this topic but I will introduce a shortcut formula here to decide on the no. of shares you should trade in any setup. Say you have a capital of 50,000 and you want to risk 2% on one trade. So the risk comes out to be 1000. Means you can risk 1000 on one trade. Let's say the stop loss on your setup comes out to be 5. Just divide the stop by the risk and that's the no. of shares you should trade. In this case 1000/5=200 shares. So No. of shares to be traded=Risk/Stop I hope you like this post and make some money out of it. I would surely post some of the trades that I took last week with this strategy. Trade safe, Stay healthy.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
10
Nifty: The Investment PointsHi All, The Investment Points: It can be observed from this weekly chart that in the bear markets of 2011 and 2015, the Index formed bottoms near 200 EMA. Those yellow circled marked on the chart proved to be excellent buying/investment opportunities. If I have to load my money for greatest investments, it will be at the same point. Nifty Took Support yeah... Nifty took support from the 9950-10500 zone mentioned in my previous post. It bounced sharply for a gain of 600 points and still rallying. The resistance points: The first one is 10710. If crossed, we will see more short covering. The second one would be a wider zone from 10900 to 11100 (200 points). If market is to correct, these are the two halting points where we may look for selling opportunities. Complacency for traders The 10710 level would be very important for next week or so. On a positive note, bears would not be happy above 10710. Also fresh buying may come above this point. If bulls prove to be stronger above 10710, the second resistance zone specified above will be quite achievable. And that will be a 200 to 300 points gain. Secondly, On daily chart (see update section) you may see a nice W-Pattern in the making, which signals a medium term bottom formation. The caution As we are moving higher very swiftly, it is possible that we may see some profit taking. The strategy next week: If we start to pullback before touching 10710, I ll be looking for bear traps to go long. If we cross 10710 (gaps up scenarios) without any sign of weakness, I ll be looking for buying opportunities. If we touch 10710 and show weakness, I ll be looking for shorting opportunities for quick gains. Do hit like All the best Regards
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
2
ADANI PORTS - JOURNEY OF THE SINKING PORTGuys today we are going to discuss about Adani port initially I would would discuss how it was in a uptrend, there after I will show that how we could have identified that it will turn into a down Trend. (Please open this post in a Separate Tab. And using mouse click on the chart and move cursor to the left to see the remaining part of the chart) Adani port was in a uptrend starting from 2017 initially creating series of higher highs and Higher Lows. In this chart, the first two are the base low and base high. The Lows and High thereafter created are used to draw trend lines / channel which is being followed. The points of reversal have been highlighted along with corresponding pattern they are forming. The share followed a fixed channel for 11 Straight months. The details of Highs and Lows during these 11 months are as below: (refer chart as well) Higher Low 1 – No Specific Pattern here. Normal reversal was here. Since we now have 2 Lows (Base Low and Higher Low) these are used to create a trend line . Higher High 1 – The share was near its its historic resistance and created Hangman pattern (Reversal Pattern) and thereby reversed from here. Higher Low 2 – The Share was near its Lower Channel and created an Inside Bar Pattern which indicated reversal. The share moving up thereafter. Higher High 2 – The share was near Its upper channel and created a Doji (Confusion after a series of uptrend) near the resistance, which indicated Confusion after a series of uptrend. Traders were unsure whether the share will continue its upward trend or not and there share started reversing from here. Higher Low 3 – The shared touched the lower channel and the immediately next candle made a Doji / Hammer but it was formed below the Lower Channel. Doji / Hammer indicates weakness in the ongoing trend. So, though share was trading below lower channel, same could not be considered as a breakdown. Also, the share reversed post this. Higher High 3 – The share showed certain consolidation and confusion in the market. So no specific pattern formed here. Higher Low 4 – In the process to make next Low. The share breached Channel and the next 2-3 candles including one big red candle) was formed below the channel thereby confirming breakdown. The share thereafter created Hammer Pattern and reversed from here. Now although On First December it created a higher Low (which indicates uptrend) it gave a channel breakdown. Thereby giving hints of further breakdown. But Since we always follow multiple confirmations, we would not trade a simple breakdown and would require more surety to ensure the same. The share further moved on make a Higher High 4 and reversed with Bearish Engulfing Pattern. The share then continuously moved down and created a Lower Low. As mentioned in the first part, the first indication was the Channel Breakout and Lower Low gave the second confirmation of downfall coming up. Here we should rely on the confirmation and find a good level to short the share. Since the share is near its crucial support, it would be correct to short this share if : 1. It breaks support with Volume 2. If reverses from Support, we should short near next resistance. The share as expected took support of the major support at 350 and reversed from here creating a Bullish Belt Hold Pattern. Since then the share has formed a channel between support and resistance and moving in between. Shorting near resistance and Going long near Support would have been a good strategy. On 22nd the share broke the support with Volume , there confirming the further breakdown.. Historic Support and Resistance have great significance and such levels are always respected by the shares. Further double confirmation should be used while taking position. Every person has different way of analyzing shares. Some follow Candlestick Patterns, Some follow trend-lines, some follow Elliot Wave and there is nothing wrong with any of these methods. Each of these methods is successful in their own and you need to believe in the strategy you believe and religiously follow it. Just to hold onto your faith and continue with your strategy. Even the basic Candlestick patterns have the ability to reap you awesome results. Thanks, i hope this is Helpful. Keep sharing the list of shares you want an analysis on. Thanks :) PS : All views welcomed if they intend a fruitful discussion. And If Warren Buffet says he still learns, who are we to say or believe that we know all. Lets learn together and Earn together. #JOURNEYOFATRADE
NSE:ADANIPORTSEducation
by prathamaggarwal
7
WHAT HAPPENED WITH MARUTI? 10000 to 6800 Journey!Maruti reached its 52W high at 10,000 and has been faaling continuously since then. The way Maruti % fell shocked alot of people, However it was not all that difficult to determine the fall and I will share, how I proceeded and made money in Maruti 5.71% . On 25 July, Maruti reached its prior top weeks high zone of 9900-10000 again. It was a good resistance and If it is broken with Good volumes, Maruti can go upto 12K-13K, The next day Maruti reversed from the resistance zone and created a Double Top (as shown in the chart), also the Day Candle formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern which indicates the start of the downfall. Double Top Pattern is a fairly successful pattern and Share is expected to reach the neckline at 8200-8300 zones before changing its direction. Maruti immediately the next day formed a large 500 points Bearish Candle which gave me good profits, And I continued waiting for my Initial target of 8200 (Neckline). In the meanwhile share gave a lot of green candles, But I since I was already in profits, I had margin of bear some green Candles. Each time Maruti showed a couple of green candle, a Big Red candle wiped out gains forming Bearish Engulfing Pattern repetitively, which posted my confidence. Share reached up to 9000 after that Rose 250 points. I though of squaring off position but the prior experience showed that there has not been 3 consecutive green candles in the past 9 months, So I decided to wait for the next day. Maruti reversed and showed red candles for the next 3 days and formed a 3 Blacks Crows pattern, which is sign of huge fall coming. Near 14 September One Gap Up for formed, but the next day there was a Gap Down thereby forming a Evening Star Pattern. On 19 September, Share finally reached my initial target of 8200 after I squared off and decided to play a LONG STRANGLE, to up my possibilities of winning. I took a Put and a Call at 3% Difference. Soon The share broke the neckline and started to go more downwards, I squared up my call and waited for gains in Put. Every person has different way of Analyzing. But the idea is to hold onto your faith and continue with your strategy. Even the basic Candlestick patterns have the ability to reap you awesome results. Thanks, i hope this is Helpful. Keep sharing the list of shares you want an analysis on. Thanks :)
NSE:MARUTIEducation
by prathamaggarwal
14
Price Action MACD Strategy: Rules and BackTest ResultsTake it as educational unless you understand the details of this strategy. I suggest you to backtest yourself, to understand entries and exits, before putting it in your trading repertoire. Rules: ------- Only Long trades when price > 55 EMA Only short trades when price < 55 EMA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Time Frame 1H ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Long Entry Preconditions: a) Price above 55 EMA b) MACD histogram above zero line --Positive Divergence seen on MACD signal line (a complementary condition for High probability Entries) Long Entry Trigger: Price break above Significant peak fractal of previous downwave OR the break above prior peak fractal high. Exit Strategy or Stop: Type 1 Exit Precondition: Negative Divergence seen on MACD signal line; and Trigger: Break below a consolidation level or the prior minor swing low Type 2 Exit Hourly close below 55 EMA Exit type I or type II whichever comes earlier ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Short Entry Preconditions: a) Price below 55 EMA b) MACD histogram below zero line --Negative Divergence seen on MACD signal line (a complementary condition for High probability Entries) Short Entry Trigger: Price break below Significant fractal of previous upwave OR the break below prior swing fractal low. Exit Strategy or Stop: Type 1 Exit Precondition: Positive Divergence seen on MACD signal line; and Trigger: Break above a consolidation level or the prior minor swing high Type 2 Exit Hourly close above 55 EMA Exit type I or type II whichever comes earlier ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ # If trade exited but price shoots back piercing out of 55 EMA or is already above/below 55 EMA , a break of previous peak fractal with MACD histogram above/below zero line triggers entry again. # Exit Strategy discussed above works well in long trades but chops in short trades. Tweaking a little by taking 1:1 or smaller targets (to previous support zones) instead of the Exit strategy may help in this issue. Backtesting From Jun till 20th July: *10558 SL 10626 = -68 10771 E10830 = 59 *10755 SL 10782 = -27 10810 SL 10758 = -52 *10732 E10570 = 162 10737 E10999 = 262 Net= +336 Results suggest that this strategy is too good in a trending market. Side ways market may give breakeven trades. #Trades with asterisk mark are short. Currently No trigger but bearish divergence on MACD # Older results in the following post Enough testing, now its time to trust this strategy. Enjoy the weekend Regards
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
6
STRATEGY FOR INTRADAY/DAY TRADINGRANGE BREAKOUT STRATEGY ------------------------------------------------------- 1) First find a stock which moved only in a extremely narrow range after 10 or 10:30am during the day on 15 min timeframe. 2) Draw a rectangle covering all HIGHs and LOWs (as shown in this example) 3) Entry for Buy will be Upper Lvl of box with SL as Lower Lvl & Entry for SELL will be Lower Lvl of box with SL as Upper Lvl 4) Target can be decided based on Support/Resistance Levels 5) This strategy has given me 95% accuracy on 40 trades in 5 trading sessions. Try and learn. You can also look at volumes for BTST calls
NSE:HCLTECHEducation
by akc_trading
Nifty: A Simple Strategy Yielding Lacs.I am surprised to see how this simple strategy could yield such handsome return in the Index futures. Time Period= 1 June till date Chart= 15 min. Rules: 1. Divergence on Stochastics associated with inverse price movement 2. Entry @ break above/below immediately preceding "minor" swing high/low 3. Stop @ below/above immediately preceding "significant" swing low/high 4. Target @ immediately preceding "significant" swing high/low point 5. Would not trigger entry on gap openings, wait for price to pull back to entry or else trade will be missed 6. After entry, if target missed by few points then close position on break of a succeeding minor swing or consolidation pattern, whichever hits earlier 7. Minimum Risk to Reward Ratio should be 1:1 or else trade will be missed. 8. No support or resistance from higher time frame taken into account 9. All the entries taken with Stop loss and Limit orders. 10. Carry forward as long as target or stop is not hit. Trades: Trade1=33 pts. Trade2=16* Trade3=31 Trade4=34 Trade5=32 Trade6=13* Trade7=47 Trade8=37 Total= 243 Profit on single lot= 243*75=18225 For earning 1 Lac or more one should have traded at least 6 lots. * In Trade 2 and 6 target was missed by a few points so as per rules the position is closed at the break of succeeding consolidations pattern. #Trade missed @ Divergence 3 because of poor RRR Although this strategy yielded 100% success with no Stops hit yet it should be noted that we totally missed the shorting opportunity from 9700 to 9565 on 22nd June. The strategy might be successful in sideways to moderately bearish/bullish environment. Will it be good in a trending market is still a question mark for me, perhaps we will get the answer in coming days. Kindly cooperate if am wrong in my calculations somewhere but i suppose the purpose of this post is clear to everybody. Trade safe, stay healthy. Best Regards Afraidtotrade
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by Bravetotrade
35