US Government Shutdown, Gold Benefits & FOMO BUY Continues📊 Market Context The gold market kicks off Q4/2025 with great enthusiasm as safe-haven flows continue to surge.
Not only that, the potential delay of the NFP employment report this week further fuels the market's "thirst" for directional information, positioning gold as the central asset in everyone's sights. Meanwhile, the USD is under pressure from political uncertainties and expectations that the Fed is moving closer to further rate cuts.
Combined, the current picture shows that gold is not only maintaining its strength after a breakout rally but also has the opportunity to expand and conquer new high price territories, as safe-haven capital and FOMO momentum from the BUY side continue to amplify.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
The price maintains the main upward trend, staying above the support structure.
Important BUY ZONE: 3833–3831 (Fibo + CP zone) – this area is likely to react strongly.
Secondary BUY ZONE: 3817–3815 (OBS zone) – stronger support, suitable for accumulating additional BUY orders.
Resistance area 3919–3923 (Liquidity Sell Zone) may be where liquidity traps appear.
✅ BUY ZONE 1: 3833–3831
SL: 3827
TP: 3838 - 3842 - 3846 - 3850 - 3855 - 3860 - 3870 - ???
✅ BUY ZONE 2: 3817–3815
SL: 3810
TP: 3822 - 3826 - 3830 - 3835 - 3840 - 3850 - 3860 - 3870 - ???
✅ Summary Gold is directly benefiting from political instability and the delay in US economic data. The main trend remains BUY with safe-haven flows, with strategic zones at 3833–3831 and 3817–3815. The expansion target aims for 3870–3880 and beyond to 3920+ if buying momentum remains strong.
Support and Resistance
Double Top at the Peak: Is a Bearish Reversal Coming in HDFC AMCHDFC AMC has given a good upside rally of 65% and is form a double top pattern.
The stock is following a bullish trendline but the RSI divergence is creating a bearish sentiment supported by the drop India VIX.
If the stock breaks below the trendline, a bearish trade can be entered with the first target of 5440 following it to 5208.
Bullishness will only be confirmed only once the stock starts trading above 6000 levels.
There is RSI divergence on the higher time frame too and gives more convincing trade in the stock.
Entry :- Below 5809
Target :- 5440 and 5208
Stop Loss :- Close above 5927 (daily charts)
Wait for the price action and trade accordingly.
Nifty Intraday Analysis for 30th September 2025NSE:NIFTY
Index has resistance near 24800 – 24850 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 25000 – 25050 range.
Nifty has immediate support near 24500 – 24450 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 24300 – 24250 range.
The market may move in the direction where unwinding of OI takes place on the Monthly F&O expiry day. Volatility expected.
Banknifty Intraday Analysis for 30th September 2025NSE:BANKNIFTY
Index has resistance near 54900 – 55000 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 55400– 55500 range.
Banknifty has immediate support near 54100 - 54000 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 53600 - 53500 range.
The market may move in the direction where unwinding of OI takes place on the Monthly F&O expiry day. Volatility expected.
Finnifty Intraday Analysis for 30th September 2025NSE:CNXFINANCE
Index has resistance near 26200 - 26250 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 26450 - 26500 range.
Finnifty has immediate support near 25825 – 25775 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 25575 – 25525 range.
The market may move in the direction where unwinding of OI takes place on the Monthly F&O expiry day. Volatility expected.
Midnifty Intraday Analysis for 30th September 2025NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECT
Index has immediate resistance near 12750 – 12775 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach 12900 – 12925 range.
Midnifty has immediate support near 12475 – 12450 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 12325 – 12300 range.
The market may move in the direction where unwinding of OI takes place on the Monthly F&O expiry day. Volatility expected.
Gold 30/09 - Safe-haven flows surge | Gold sails toward new ATH 🟡 XAU/USD – 30/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
US Politics : Meeting between Trump and bipartisan leaders ended without agreement → growing risk of a US government shutdown by Wednesday.
Conflict : Democrats demand concessions, Republicans fiercely oppose → wide gap remains, both sides blaming each other.
Market : Investors watch JOLTS data and speeches from 3 FED members, but political risks are the strongest catalyst for Gold.
Trend : Safe-haven flows keep pouring into Gold → increasing likelihood of testing new ATH.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : US political seas are stormy, Gold becomes the fortress of safety. The voyage toward ATH is widening.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis (H1)
EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) > EMA 89 (red) → bullish trend clearly dominant.
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
Big Volume Dock: 3,827
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
ATH test: 3,916 – 3,917
Market Structure : Gold broke out strongly, now trading around 3,870. Main trend remains bullish, with 3,842 – 3,827 as key anchor zones.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (main priority)
Buy Zone 2 – Big Volume
Entry: 3,827 – 3,824
SL: 3,815
TP: 3,870 – 3,899 – 3,916
⚡ Sell (short scalp – high risk)
Sell Zone – ATH test
Entry: 3,917 – 3,920
SL: 3,925
TP: 3,899 – 3,870 – 3,856
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails are filled by safe-haven winds, pushing the ship close to ATH. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,842 – 3,827) is the ideal dock for sailors to position Buys. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,916 – 3,920) may unleash violent waves, suitable only for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. If the political storm from Washington breaks out, Gold’s voyage could surpass the peak and expand its horizon.”
📢 If you find the Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the earliest updates.
💬 What’s your view, crew? Will Gold conquer ATH around 3,917 this week?
H1 bullish momentum intact | Buy 3,792–3,765, target 3,821🟡 XAU/USD – 29/09/2025 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Structure & Trend
H1 continues to print consecutive BoS → bullish trend sustained.
Price broke the long-term downtrend line and surged to new highs.
EMA 34 & EMA 89 both pointing up and below price → confirming short-to-mid-term bullish momentum.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Key Zones
Storm Breaker (Sell Zone / ATH test) : 3,818 – 3,821
Golden Harbor (FVG – Buy Zone) : 3,792 – 3,779
OB Harbor 1 : 3,772 – 3,765
OB Harbor 2 (deeper) : 3,731 – 3,724
Core Idea: 3,792 – 3,765 is the main support “cushion” for trend-follow Buys; 3,818 – 3,821 is the wave edge where profit-taking may occur.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – main priority)
Buy Zone 1 – FVG (3,792 – 3,779)
Entry: 3,792 – 3,779
SL: 3,765
TP: 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821+
Buy Zone 2 – OB1 (3,772 – 3,765)
Entry: 3,772 – 3,765
SL: 3,758 (below 3,765)
TP: 3,792 – 3,805 – 3,818 – 3,821
Buy Zone 3 – OB2 deep (3,731 – 3,724)
Entry: 3,731 – 3,724
SL: 3,714
TP: 3,745 – 3,765 – 3,792 – 3,805
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – scalp only)
Sell Zone – Storm Breaker (3,818 – 3,821)
Entry: 3,818 – 3,821
SL: 3,828
TP: 3,805 – 3,796 – 3,792
Breakdown Short (conditional)
Only consider Short if H1 closes below 3,724
SL: 3,735
TP: 3,710 – 3,700 – 3,690
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails remain filled after consecutive BoS . Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,792 → 3,765) is the anchor dock to board in trend’s direction. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,818 – 3,821) may trigger profit-taking waves – only go Quick Boarding 🚤 if clear signals appear. If the tide drags below 3,724, let the ship retreat to OB2 to gather strength before resuming the northbound voyage.”
TCS – Bearish Outlook Intact, But a Wave B Bounce in Play?Chart Structure (Weekly)
TCS has been locked in a corrective decline since the 4592.25 peak. The latest fall into the historical support cluster (near 3056–2890) completed a five-wave structure within wave A. From here, a bounce toward wave B is possible, with resistance around 3350–3600.
Bullish trigger: RSI shows a bullish divergence (price made a lower low, RSI made a higher low).
Upside potential: A move towards the 3350 resistance zone.
Downside risk: If support fails, the next major level sits near 2292 — aligning with a larger wave C.
So the long-term outlook remains bearish, but a short-term bounce looks probable.
Fundamental Headwind
Adding to the technical picture, the looming H1-B visa fee hike is a structural negative for Indian IT companies. TCS, Infosys, and peers with heavy US revenue exposure could see margin pressure in the quarters ahead. This reinforces the larger bearish bias, making any bounce counter-trend in nature.
Illustrative Option Play – Bull Call Spread
For those looking to play the short-term bounce while limiting risk, one way is to structure a bull call spread:
Buy 3000 CE (Oct Expiry) at ₹42.1
Sell 3040 CE (Oct Expiry) at ₹31.25
Lot size: 175
Net Cost: ₹1,899
Max Profit: ₹5,101 (~26%)
Max Loss: ₹1,899 (~10%)
Breakeven: 3011(4%)
Reward/Risk: 2.7
(Note: Prices are as of EoB 29th September 2025. This is only an example to demonstrate risk-managed structures. Not a trade recommendation.)
Summary
Long-term: Bearish, with risk of a wave C drop toward 2292.
Short-term: Bounce into wave B likely, targeting 3350–3600.
Strategy: A bull call spread provides a clean, limited-risk way to play this bounce, while respecting the larger bearish setup.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions.
Nifty Intraday Analysis for 29th September 2025NSE:NIFTY
Index has resistance near 24800 – 24850 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 25000 – 25050 range.
Nifty has immediate support near 24500 – 24450 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 24300 – 24250 range.
Oversold zone, bounce back expected with profit booking on high zone as F&O expiry is nearing.
Banknifty Intraday Analysis for 29th September 2025NSE:BANKNIFTY
Index has resistance near 54800 – 54900 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 55300– 55400 range.
Banknifty has immediate support near 55000 - 54900 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 53500 - 53400 range.
Oversold zone, bounce back expected with profit booking on high zone as F&O expiry is nearing.
Finnifty Intraday Analysis for 29th September 2025NSE:CNXFINANCE
Index has resistance near 26200 - 26250 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 26450 - 26500 range.
Finnifty has immediate support near 25800 – 25750 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 25550 – 25500 range.
Oversold zone, bounce back expected with profit booking on high zone as F&O expiry is nearing.
Midnifty Intraday Analysis for 29th September 2025NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECT
Index has immediate resistance near 12725 – 12750 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach 12900 – 12925 range.
Midnifty has immediate support near 12425 – 12400 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 12250 – 12225 range.
Oversold zone, bounce back expected with profit booking on high zone as F&O expiry is nearing.
Nifty - Monthly Expiry Day Analysis Sep 30The price was holding the support at the 24600 zone and moved within the range of 24600 to 24800 today, forming a descending triangle in the process. 24600 is the trend direction deciding zone now.
Buy above 24660 with the stop loss of 24610 for the targets 24700, 24740, 24800, 24840, and 24880.
Sell below 24580 with the stop loss of 24620 for the targets 24540, 24500, 24460, 24420, and 24380.
Nearby support is at 24500, and resistance is at 24800. If the price does not gain strength, it will remain within this range of 24500 to 24800.
Expected expiry day range is 24400 to 24900.
New ATH Above 3800 & FOMO Buying Still Driving the Market📊 Market Context
Gold has once again set a new all-time high above 3800 USD/oz, showing no signs of losing bullish momentum. The surge is fueled by strong FOMO buying flows, as traders continue to pile into safe-haven assets.
Concerns about a possible US government shutdown and renewed discussions around tariff policies have weighed on the dollar, while expectations of upcoming Fed rate cuts keep gold supported. Meanwhile, Fed speeches and incoming US data remain key drivers that could inject short-term volatility, but the broader bullish narrative remains intact.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
Price is firmly holding above the 3800 psychological level, confirming the breakout.
Buy zones remain intact at 3790–3792 and 3784–3782, with solid demand expected on any dip.
Sell liquidity sits around 3823–3825, where short-term profit-taking or traps may emerge before the next leg higher.
🔑 Key Levels
Resistance / Sell Zone: 3823–3825
Support / Buy Zones: 3790–3792, 3784–3782
📈 Scenarios & Trading Plan
BUY ZONE 1: 3790–3792
SL: 3786
TP: 3795 - 3800 - 3810 - 3820 - 3830 - ???
BUY ZONE 2: 3784–3782
SL: 3778
TP: 3790 - 3795 - 3800 - 3810 - 3820 - 3830 - 3840 - ???
SELL ZONE (Liquidity Trap Zone): 3823–3825
SL: 3830
TP: 3818 - 3814 - 3810 - 3805 - 3800 - ???
⚠️ Risk Notes
Beware of liquidity sweeps near 3823–3825 before continuation higher.
Fed comments and macro data may cause sudden spikes — adjust risk accordingly.
Stick to confirmation entries around zones to avoid being trapped by false moves.
✅ Summary
Gold is riding strong FOMO-driven bullish momentum, printing new highs above 3800. Main bias: buy on dips at 3790–3782, while monitoring short-term sell liquidity at 3823–3825 for potential pullbacks. The broader trend remains bullish, so patience and disciplined entries will be key.
Gold awaits PCE | EMA squeeze, big waves ahead🟡 XAU/USD – 26/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Context & News
Trump : Announced a 100% tariff on branded drugs if not produced in the US → escalating trade tensions.
PCE tonight : The FED’s most important inflation gauge, key to shaping October rate cut expectations (current probability 91.09%).
The market is in “hold breath” mode, awaiting the PCE spark to decide the next direction.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : Gold is squeezed between two winds – short-term EMA pressure and major expectations from PCE.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
EMA : EMA 34 (yellow) remains below EMA 89 (red) → short-term bearish pressure persists, but narrowing gap signals big volatility ahead.
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone)
3,738 – 3,730
3,718
3,687
3,651
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone)
3,755 – 3,773
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
⚡ Sell (scalp at resistance)
Entry: 3,773 – 3,776
SL: 3,783
TP: 3,755 – 3,745 – 3,734
✅ Buy (trend-follow priority)
Buy Zone 1 (Scalping)
Entry: 3,72x – 3,718
SL: 3,710
TP: 3,750 – 3,769 – 3,776
Buy Zone 2 (Deeper OB)
Entry: 3,685 – 3,683
SL: 3,675
TP: 3,690 – 3,695 – 3,700 – 3,705 – 3,7xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails are being squeezed between EMA 34 & 89. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3,734 – 3,683) remains the safe dock for sailors to await the big wave. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3,773 – 3,776) is raising fierce waves, only suitable for short Quick Boarding 🚤 scalps. Tonight’s PCE will be the decisive wind – either pushing the ship beyond 3,78x or forcing it back to retest 3,72x.”
📢 If you find Captain’s Log useful, don’t forget to Follow for the latest updates.
💬 What do you think? Will Gold break through 3,78x or retest 3,72x first?
Nifty - Weekly review Sep 29 to Oct 3Price has been falling continuously for a few days. Nearby support levels are 24500 and 24350-24400 zone. We can expect more fall if the price breaks this level.
As per the daily chart, the price is nearing the trend line support.
Buy above 24720 with the stop loss of 24670 for the targets 24760, 24800, 24860, 24920, and 24980.
Sell below 24600 with the stop loss of 24650 for the targets 24560, 24510, 24460, 24400, 24340, 24300, and 24260.
Always do your analysis before taking any trade.
CVS HEALTH TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrice recently bounced from the discount zone around $50 after a fakeout breakdown, showing demand absorption.
The stock has reclaimed the $70 support area and is now trading at $75.77, confirming strength.
The next major resistance and liquidity area is around $83.44, which could act as the next upside target.
If price sustains above $70, the trend bias remains bullish toward the $83–85 zone.
A breakdown below $70 would weaken the structure, possibly retesting $60–62.
NiftyITNifty IT | CMP: 33,702
The index made its all-time high (ATH) in December 2024 and has since been in a structural decline. After hitting a low in April 2025, it has been moving within a parallel channel, testing the upper boundary in June 2025.
Support Zone 1 (31,230–30,575):
This level has repeatedly acted as both supply and demand. It provided resistance in Nov 2022 and Feb 2023, later turning into strong support in Oct 2023, June 2024, and Apr 2025 . A retest of this zone cannot be ruled out, but if it fails to hold, the price may drift lower towards the next critical zone.
Support Zone 2 (26,399–25,499):
This is the most significant demand area, created largely during the consolidation phase between Jan–May 2021, and reinforced in Jun/Jul 2022, Sept 2022, and Apr 2023 . Post this accumulation, the index witnessed a sharp rally to its last ATH.
These two zones together formed a broad rectangular base between Jun 2021 – Aug 2023 , which provided strong momentum to the bulls.
The period from Mar 2020 – Jan 2022 was exceptional for the bulls, driving prices far ahead of valuations. While this resulted in the ATH, the subsequent correction was inevitable as disparity levels stretched excessively. The ongoing correction is essentially a healthy cooling-off phase before the next sustainable move.
That said, this entire consolidation and corrective cycle may still take another 1–2 years to fully play out.
SBI BANK |Neowave AnalysisNamaskaram Everyone
I trade using Neowave and on that I have created an trading setup, which is kind of automatic entry and exit with Neowave.
Neowave is kind of a method in which you synchronize all the price action across all the time frames. It hides all the noise and tells you market is bullish or bearish.
About Stock
This is not a trading idea, it would have been if updated few weeks back. Just a neowave counts update for some one who is already holding the stock.
Stock already started its rally in correction, if you get some retracement than buy it.
For coding style read the below post
If you have the stock than hold it and trail it as the counts proceed in future.
Like and share is appreciated.
Thank You
To understand how our coding works read the below post-
NSE:SBIN






















