XAU/USD tests FvG; awaiting OB and trendline reaction.◆ Market Context
Price is moving within an ascending channel pattern. Each time it touches the upper resistance line, a downward reaction occurs. The most recent decline brought the price to the OB 4,189 area, which currently acts as support. The M30 structure shows the market is in a rebalancing phase after strong volatility.
◆ Price Action – SMC
• The decline from the channel peak created a Fair Value Gap (FvG), which is currently being filled.
• Price remains above the short-term ascending trendline; however, the recovery force is not strong enough to break the resistance area.
• OB 4,189 is the main holding area; if broken, the short-term ascending structure will be invalidated.
◆ Fibonacci & Reaction Zones
• Price is reacting at the Fibo levels 0.382 – 0.5.
• Fibo 0.618 around 4,230 coincides with the FvG area → this is an important resistance zone.
• Closing above 4,230 will trigger an expansion to higher levels.
Trading Plan
➤ Buy Scenario (priority if structure holds)
• Waiting area: 4,189 (OB) or lower trendline
• Condition: price holds the OB bottom and reversal signals appear
• Targets:
▪︎ 4,215
▪︎ 4,230 (strong resistance)
▪︎ expansion: 4,255 → 4,290
➤ Sell Scenario (if structure breaks)
• Condition: price breaks OB 4,189
• SL: above 4,200
• Targets:
▪︎ 4,175
▪︎ 4,165 (deeper support area)
➤ Strong Uptrend Continuation Scenario
• Condition: clear closing above 4,230
• Targets:
▪︎ 4,255
▪︎ 4,290
Summary
• OB 4,189 plays a crucial role in the short term.
• If OB holds, the price is likely to continue advancing to the resistance area 4,230 and beyond.
• If OB is broken, the adjustment target will head towards 4,165.
• The most reasonable action now is to wait for a clear reaction at OB or when the price approaches the 4,230 area.
