Revised Mid-Year Outlook ahead of Capitulation 14th of June 2022Previous forecast on BTC was obviously invalidated once it broke out of the wedge pattern which was being respected from January 2022 until early April.
Whilst I am not a FA trader, the state of the global economy can simply not be ignored. Thus my guess is that we'll see a long bleed and eventual capitulation down to the 80-88% retracement level to safely say that the bottom is in before it continues its climb in journey of the next bitcoin halving, some time around
The material I post is purely educational. I'm not influenced by anyone's bias or social commentary. I simply express my thoughts and opinions on the markets based on what I'm able to see that's mainly based on my ability to recognise familiar patterns and events, most of which comes from having spent more than 20,000 hours chart time charting and observing BTC's movements since 2017. As of the past year, BTC has enjoyed retracements to the 0.5 fibonacci level when viewed across smaller time frames despite preferring the golden pocket zone during it's previous halving cycle.
Do you think BTC will ever make a new ATH again within the next 3 years? Leave your answers below.
Technical-analysis
Banknifty 19th April 2022 - Intraday Trade Analysis
Today, Banknifty opened gap down around 600 points and in the last hour it forms some green candles and close near 36700.
Flat opening - If it moves up and go near 36900 and 37000 will look for selling on any negative price action. Sell on 5 min red candle with high of the candle will be SL and target will be 1:2.
Gap up - Wait for negative price action near 37000. Will look for sell
Gap down - 36500 will act as support so will wait for some retracement before selling.
Thanks
What is Technical Analysis..?Technical Analysis is the study of price and trend changes in Commodities, Stocks, Futures and various other market instruments. The price changes are primarily evaluated by
various indicators, oscillators or trading systems to give a trader an edge in trading. Technical analysis is not a perfect science by any means, but it does have certain characteristics,
patterns or indications which may be repetitive or may be intuitive and tend to possess Zen-like predictability power. Technicians plot these prices and price changes on a chart and
apply various indicators and studies to figure out potential supply and demand areas, trade setups, targets and stops to win. Technicians have developed various methods of
representing market data on charts. The most extensively used charts are bar charts, line charts, candlestick charts and point & figure charts. There are many other variations like
Kagi, Renko and Range bar charts.
The most basic charts in technical analysis follow simple Cartesian structure (X&Y axes) to draw in 2-Dimensional space. On the X-axis (Horizontal), the time is plotted and on the Y-
axis (vertical) the corresponding price is plotted. Any indicators derived from the time and price values, are either overlaid on the chart itself or plotted in secondary-graphs below
and above the main price time chart. Some traders plot volume on the X-axis as a representation of market activity. Charts are plotted using various scales such as arithmetic or log
charts. Arithmetic charts have the same distance between the prices where as log or semi log charts have a variable distance to represent the proportionate price movements.
There are many facets in technical or chart analysis to understand and master. Price, Volume, and Time are the three most basic components of the market. Many successful traders
only study price action to make money . Many other traders use complex mathematical theories and faster computer technologies to analyze and participate in the market action.
Nevertheless, regardless of any trading theory or complex mathematical algorithm, the success in the markets lies with individual who can clearly understand the price-action and
make the decisions to pull the trigger at the right time with excellent discipline . These individuals possess a higher understanding of market theories, market psychology and
dynamics and money management methods and have mastered their execution skills. Charts, patterns, indicators and software are only basic market tools. Successful traders view
them just as tools and understand the usage. They build a theory and trade with a solid money management plan.
Expecting retracement - Navin fluorineI am expecting retracement in NSE:NAVINFLUOR
There are multiple reasons such as -
1. Navin Fluorine is at the Supply zone. The stock fell almost 18% previously at this zone , and we can again expect some sellers to build short positions.
2. Trendline resistance: We can clearly see in the chart that the stock face some resistance previously at the trendline. Yet again it's time to test the trendline. We already can see a red Doji type of candle.
3. Fib retracement: The stock is testing the 61% level of Fibonacci, and it already closed below the 61% level. We can see downside retracement up to 38% (3764) or 50%(3686) making it or targets
4. On 15 min TF, it broke another trendline ( made a new low after consecutive higher highs) and closed below.
A gap down / Flat opening can present us good intraday shorting opportunity where the target can be today's low. (Should make LL on smaller timeframe)
The trade only executes if it starts to trade below today's low (3915) . Now I can be completely wrong and the market may move opposite to my view, that's why we will use SL if we plan to enter the trade.
Disclaimer: This is no trade recommendation and the only reason for me to post this is for educational purposes.
JSPL: 16% ROI in 15 daysOn Jan 27, when the stock was at 376,
this is what was suggested
The stock gave ample opportunity to buy.
Today JSPL has made a high of 444.80
That is 18% ROI in about 15 days.
CMP 438 (16.5% approx)
Profit booking can be considered
Just following SImple Technical Analysis and results are in front of you
Happy trading....!!!
(P.S: The credit here goes to Krishna ji for highlighting this set up😀)
Stock With Good Risk To Reward Ratio.Dear Traders,
I am happy to Sharing Good Risk to Reward Ratio Stock. IBREALEST is forming Triangle Pattern from past 5 Months. Also whenever it touches trendline buying happens with good Volume. So, those who missed previous supports will be eager to buy it from here.
Caution: Nifty and Banknifty may rest or fall further, so, please consider them while take your positions.
Happy Trading Guys. Posting it before 2 Days from Monday so you all can analyse it from your side too.
CLEAR WINNER IN BEARISH MARKET---1 MONTH=10%Dear Traders,
Good afternoon, This gem is consolidating from past 3 moths. also the range is getting small each moth. Moreover, in market crash this stock took support and didn't fell like every other stock. You can buy it 50% now and 50% after good volume SL should be below trendline. Please do your analysis before taking any decision.
STOCK WITH FUNDAMENTALS---IT'S TATA.(BIG MOVE CAN BE EXPECTED)Dear Traders,
Please find this fundamentally strong stock a huge winner in short term. As it is consolidating after giving goods returns. Also, after breakout selling pressure is minimal in front of bulls. Put your stop loss as per your risk capacity. I would personally wait for good RR ratio.
Bank Nifty roars, so does India Vix. What Next?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 5-1-22
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 17820.10
H 17944.70
L 17748.85
C 17925.25
EOD +120.00 points / +0.67%
SGX Nifty 5-1-22 @ 1830h = -8
FII DII = Not yet available
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty opened flat and then there was a mini sell-off as it tried to trade above the previous close. However, it found support around 17750 and then moved up a 100+ points and found resistance around 17850 and was back to 17800.
It then never looked back and made a steady climb to hit the day high and close just below the level and above 17900.
Both the indices have made higher highs and higher lows which is a good sign.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 99
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 45
Net = +54
BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 3 Lifters contributed = 606
Top 3 Draggers contributed = 00
Net = +606
POSITIVES
Bank Nifty has closed comfortably above 37000.
Nifty ended the day despite pressure from IT leaders and HDFC, above 17900.
Bullishness in Banking & Finance scrips was strong.
FIIs have bought in excess of 1,200 Crores.
NEGATIVES
IT leaders dragged Nifty - Infosys in particular which was a negative yesterday as well.
Spike in India Vix as it closed above 17.
TRADING RANGE FOR 05 JAN 22
Nifty support = 17400-500
Nifty resistance = 17950-18000-18100
Bank Nifty Support = 36000-200
Bank Nifty resistance = 37800-38000-200
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
The most surprising fact of the day was that India Vix has roared along with Bank Nifty. It is an uncommon occurrence and is signaling that there is panic setting in at higher levels. Could this be on account of the rising Covid related uncertainties?
Nifty underperformed Bank Nifty on account of Infosys, TCS, and HDFC. The good thing is that the higher low of Nifty is now 150+ points above. This indicates the underlying bullishness at lower levels.
Bank Nifty made a bounce of 1100 points from the day low which is good and that is the reason why it was able to outperform Nifty today. The top 3 leaders contributed 600+ of these indicating that the index wide bullishness was good.
Of the top 5 draggers of Nifty, the first 4 are from the IT pack. And all the top 5 lifters of Nifty are from Banking & Finance. So it was Banking & Finance Vs IT.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the link to the video:
youtu.be
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
5-1-22
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
TATA CHEMICAL moving upward after consolidation 15MTATA CHEM after being traded in range bound area now trading upward, it can go for retest till 925 and can give a good reversal shot with high green volume.
I've took the trade with SL being last candle's low. you can also trade it for the target of 1000 or more. fundamentally very good company you can hold it for investment purpose too..
These levels are for educational purpose only.
LUPIN Creating DOUBLE BOTTOM PatternLupin taking support at trendline in daily time frame near 913 now it has created double bottom pattern in daily and 15M time frame.
if it has broke the consolidation zone from 945 and trying for a retest. if the retest will pass with huge volume then we can see upside rally till 1000 or 1085 from CMP.
you can go long for a swing trade if good directional volume breakout is seen.
Nifty Level For Tomorrow ( Price Action Analysis)If Tomorrow market opens flat and taking support 16588 and form a strong green candle go long for 50 -60 Points OR
If Market opens Gap Up above 16645 and forms strong green candle go long. Or open gap up on 16645 and faces resistance and taking support on today high then go long If Market Open Gap Down then above 16690 and form green candle go long or level breaks go short go short
Nifty Resistance 16650 16700
Nifty Supports 16530 16340
All advice is for educational Purposes