Technical Analysis
Big Money is Moving In—This Chart Screams BREAKOUT!A deep technical revisit on PREMEXPLN reveals a textbook example of structure, confluence, and timing:
✅ Previous Cup & Handle Breakout Zone (Yellow)
The stock gave a massive breakout in mid-2023 from a well-formed Cup and Handle base.
This zone, once a strong resistance, now acts as a long-term structural support (highlighted in yellow).
✅ Fibonacci Retracement from ATH to CMP
A Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high of ₹906.4 to current levels shows a 61.8% retracement near ₹399, aligning perfectly with the current bounce zone.
✅ Red-to-Green Flip Zone
The stock previously struggled around ₹420–₹480 (red resistance block), but now this zone is flipping into support with price reclaiming it—textbook polarity flip.
✅ WTF Counter-Trendline Breakout
A clean weekly CT breakout is visible with strong bullish conviction.
The breakout candle engulfs the previous sell-off wick, signaling wick fill + rejection absorption—a bullish candle combination.
The breakout is supported by a noticeable volume spike (7.78M).
BTC/USD – Daily Trade Plan | 10 May 2025🟢 BTC/USD – Daily Trade Plan | 10 May 2025
"Breakout Incoming? Price Coiling Tighter Near Key Resistance!"
🔍 Market Overview:
Bitcoin has shown strong upward momentum after breaking past the $99,000 mark, reaching a short-term high at $104,269.47. Since then, price has consolidated within a narrowing range. The daily structure remains bullish, but short-term selling pressure is visible — especially ahead of the weekend and macro uncertainty.
🧭 Technical Landscape:
🔺 Resistance Zones:
$104,269.47 – Local top, price has failed to break this level several times.
$105,765 – $106,917 – Previous rejection zone + Fibonacci confluence.
$108,045 – Possible extension target if breakout confirms.
🔻 Support Zones:
$102,301 – Immediate intraday support; likely first retest.
$99,379 – Strong mid-range support, aligned with Moving Average & FVG.
$97,093 – Long-term trendline & high-demand zone.
📊 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Continuation
If BTC holds above $102,300 and breaks H4 resistance:
🔵 Buy Entry: $102,500 – $102,300
🎯 Targets: $104,000 → $105,700 → $106,900 → $108,000
🛑 Stop Loss: $101,800
📉 Scenario 2: Liquidity Grab & Deep Pullback
If BTC loses $102,300 support, expect a move to collect liquidity around $99K:
🔵 Buy Entry: $97,200 – $97,000
🎯 Targets: $99,000 → $101,000 → $102,500
🛑 Stop Loss: $96,400
⚠️ Key Market Considerations:
🧊 DXY Recovery: Short-term USD strength may cap BTC upside.
🏦 Fed Policy Tone: Remains hawkish. Any USD volatility can shift crypto sentiment.
🔼 Long-Term Trend: Still bullish. Focus on buy-the-dip setups rather than chasing highs.
📝 Final Thoughts:
Bitcoin is entering a coiled zone, awaiting high-volume confirmation. Breakouts or sharp rejections from the current range will decide the next leg.
🚀 Stay patient — Wait for clean candle closes (H4 preferred)
🔒 Stick to your SL/TP — Discipline defines success
💡 Avoid mid-range FOMO. Let price tell the story.
GOLD – BREAKOUT OR TRAP BEFORE THE WEEKEND?📊 GOLD – BREAKOUT OR TRAP BEFORE THE WEEKEND?
The gold market is showing significant liquidity sweeps this Friday. In the early Asian session, price pushed down to the 327x region, collecting liquidity, before swiftly rebounding. On the M30 chart, multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) have formed and been filled — signaling accumulation and potential setup for a major move.
📉 Technical Perspective:
Gold has been moving within a parallel descending channel since yesterday. However, during the late Asian session, we saw the first signs of a possible breakout. If the candle closes above 3,324, this could confirm a breakout — at which point an early BUY entry on the retest would be ideal.
🔥 Fundamental Notes:
The market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical news, especially tensions between nations and potential tariff announcements from Donald Trump regarding China.
In this climate, trading based on key level reactions is safer than predicting direction. The zones 3,324 and 3,366 will be crucial decision points for bulls and bears. A breakout above 3,366 could shift the short-term trend bullish.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3,345
3,364
3,395
🔻 Key Support Levels:
3,280
3,270
3,256
3,244
3,225
📈 Trade Setup – Friday Strategy:
🔵 BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3,280 – 3,278
Stop Loss: 3,274
Take Profits: 3,285 → 3,290 → 3,295 → 3,300 → 3,305 → 3,310 → 3,320
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3,364 – 3,366
Stop Loss: 3,370
Take Profits: 3,360 → 3,356 → 3,352 → 3,348 → 3,344 → 3,340 → 3,330
✅ Final Note:
Fridays often bring sharp liquidity grabs. Stay cautious, especially with heightened geopolitical tension and pending policy statements from global leaders. Always respect your TP/SL zones to protect your capital.
📌 Let price lead. React to structure. Avoid chasing noise.
Wishing all traders a safe and profitable end of the week!
Bullish Momentum with EMA200 and Volume Confirmation📈 CRISIL Technical Analysis | Bullish Momentum with EMA200 and Volume Confirmation
📅 Date: May 08, 2025
📈 Timeframe: Daily
🔍 Stock: CRISIL(NSE)
📊 Price Action Update (Today):
CRISIL surged by +6.59%, closing at 5,010.30, after trading in a range between 4,690.20 and 5,050.00. The stock formed a strong bullish candle, resembling a Marubozu, with a close near the day’s high — a clear sign of aggressive buying. This breakout comes after a tight consolidation phase, and is supported by heavy volume, indicating strong participation and conviction in the move.
🧠 Technical Overview:
CRISIL has shown a decisive shift in structure with today’s breakout above its 200-day EMA, signaling a potential trend reversal. The stock had been consolidating in a narrow range for several sessions, building energy for a directional move. Today's breakout is validated by a surge in volume (2.5x the 20-day average), along with supportive indicators like RSI crossing 60, Bollinger Band expansion, and the TTM Squeeze turning OFF. These combined signals suggest that the stock is entering a momentum phase, where further upside is likely if follow-through buying continues. Immediate attention should be on price behavior around the next resistance at 5,143.
🧩 Chart Pattern Insight:
The price action on the daily chart reveals a rectangle consolidation breakout. CRISIL had been trading within a well-defined horizontal range, forming a base between 4,600 and 4,800 for several sessions. This pattern represents a period of accumulation. Today’s strong breakout candle marks a range breakout with volume confirmation, turning the previous resistance zone into potential support. The structure resembles a base breakout pattern, often seen before the start of a new uptrend. A sustained move above the breakout zone may lead to a measured move towards the next resistance levels.
🧱 Support & Resistance Analysis:
Post-breakout, CRISIL has established a new support base around 4,784, which was previously a resistance level during consolidation. Below this, the next key supports lie at 4,557 and 4,423, providing a cushion in case of any pullbacks. On the upside, the immediate resistance to watch is 5,143, a level where price previously reacted. If the momentum continues, CRISIL may test 5,276 and 5,503 in the coming sessions. These levels will be crucial in determining whether the breakout evolves into a sustained trend or faces short-term profit booking.
🔍 Volume Analysis:
The recent price movement in CRISIL shows a noticeable increase in volume, with traded volume at 2.5 times the 20-day average, suggesting heightened market activity. The breakout candle, paired with this significant volume, indicates a potential shift in the market trend. Prior to this, volume was relatively lower during the consolidation phase, indicating a period of accumulation or base-building. This typical volume pattern — lower during consolidation and higher during a breakout — strengthens the case for a potential trend change.
The volume profile suggests a shift in market sentiment, with buying interest becoming more prominent in the 4,700–4,800 range. The breakout candle shows a notable volume exceeded 270K, indicating increased buyer participation. Additionally, selling pressure observed in the 4,500–4,700 zone seems to have been absorbed, which may indicate a potential for further price movement.
📌 Educational Insight:
The recent breakout in CRISIL Ltd is a strong example of a trend reversal confirmed by volume, offering valuable insights for those studying price action, trend shifts, and volume dynamics. This setup illustrates how multiple indicators — including trend, volume, and volatility — align to suggest the potential for a trend continuation. Traders often look for such setups to make risk-defined entries during pullbacks. The breakout is characterized by significant volume and a full-bodied green candle on the daily chart, supported by several technical factors, such as volume and delta support, an EMA 200 crossover, and volatility expansion after a squeeze.
The outlook for CRISIL Ltd remains bullish, driven by multiple technical confirmations. However, caution is advised as the price approaches Resistance Levels 1 and 2 (R1–R2), where profit booking may occur. Additionally, if the price falls below 4,783 with volume confirmation, traders should consider reevaluating their positions.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is purely educational and not a buy/sell recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions. This content complies with SEBI guidelines and is intended to promote learning and market awareness.
POST-FOMC MARKET OUTLOOK | Is Gold Poised for More Gains?🟡 GOLD 08/05 – POST-FOMC MARKET OUTLOOK | Is Gold Poised for More Gains?
After last night’s FOMC meeting, the outcome came in line with expectations — the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% and maintained a hawkish tone. Powell reinforced that there is no urgency to cut rates and that future policy will depend on incoming economic data.
Despite some dovish hopes from the market, the Fed remained cautious — no pivot, no surprises.
🔥 Geopolitical Tensions:
Meanwhile, geopolitical stress between India and Pakistan is escalating again around the Jammu-Kashmir region. This could continue to act as a bullish driver for gold, especially in Asia where safe-haven demand is more sensitive to border conflicts.
🧠 Market View: BUY Setup Still Dominates
Over the past few sessions, gold has shown strong accumulation followed by solid bullish momentum. As long as candle structure remains healthy, buying dips near 338x–336x remains the preferred strategy.
However, if an unexpected catalyst drives a breakdown below 336x with confirmation from candle close, this could invalidate the short-term bullish bias and open the door for a sell setup, targeting the large liquidity gap between 3354 to 3340.
Until then, trade the range — respect top and bottom of key intraday zones.
📉 TECHNICAL ZONES TO WATCH:
🔺 Resistance Levels:
3396
3408
3430
3455
🔻 Support Levels:
3384
3366
3354
3334
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3336 – 3334
SL: 3330
TP: 3340 → 3344 → 3348 → 3352 → 3356 → 3360
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3430 – 3432
SL: 3436
TP: 3426 → 3422 → 3418 → 3414 → 3410 → 3400
⚠️ Key Event Ahead:
Today’s US session brings the Unemployment Claims report — known to trigger high volatility in precious metals. Stay alert, and always wait for confirmation candles before executing trades near critical zones.
✅ Follow for real-time updates and mid-session trade setups.
💬 Drop your view in the comments below – are we going to break higher or revisit liquidity zones?
Setup – Watch This Triangle Breakout! 🔺 Nifty50 Triangle Breakout – Big Move Loading? 📊
📆 30th April | 15-Minute Chart
Nifty is tightly squeezed inside a symmetrical triangle, and a breakout or breakdown looks imminent!
🔍 Levels to Watch:
📈 Breakout Above: 24,371.60 → Possible Level: 24,395.20+
📉 Breakdown Below: 24,313.55 → Possible Level: 24,290.40-
📊 Volume is compressing – this usually signals a powerful move ahead.
Wait for clear candle confirmation with volume before entering. 🔔
💬 Patience pays. Trade the breakout, not the noise!
Rising Wedge Breakout or Trap?📈 Nifty 50 – Rising Wedge Breakout or Trap? 🔍
🗓️ 2nd May 2025 | 15-Min Chart Analysis
The Nifty 50 has been respecting a rising wedge pattern over the past few sessions. Today, we witnessed a sharp bounce from the lower trendline with a strong bullish candle and volume spike — just enough to test the upper boundary of the wedge!
💡 Key Observations:
Price touched the upper trendline resistance – caution advised 🚨
Volume spike hints at possible breakout attempt or smart money exit
Watch closely: A breakout with volume = bullish continuation 📈
A rejection here = possible reversal 📉
🔔 My Take:
Momentum is strong, but the structure looks fragile. If it breaks out and sustains above the wedge, we could see a 100–150 point move. Else, a reversal towards 24,300 or below is also on the cards. Stay alert.
📊 Always trade with proper risk management.
📌 What’s your view? Breakout or fakeout? Drop your thoughts below!
Falling Wedge Breakout with Bullish Momentum | 15-Min Chart🏦 BANK NIFTY – Falling Wedge Breakout with Bullish Momentum | 15-Min Chart
📅 Date: May 5, 2025
📈 Timeframe: 15-Minute
🔍 Instrument: Nifty Bank Index (NSE)
📌 Technical Overview:
Bank Nifty is currently showing signs of a short-term bullish reversal on the 15-minute chart. The index formed a classic falling wedge pattern, which is typically seen before upward price moves. A recent breakout attempt is seen from the wedge structure, supported by steady green candles and slight volume recovery.
🧩 Chart Pattern:
The Falling Wedge is marked by two converging green trendlines.
Inside the wedge, the price made lower highs and lower lows, forming a compact structure.
The breakout leg is forming with strength and is approaching a tested supply zone around 55,350–55,450.
🔍 Key Price Levels:
Support Zone: ~54,800 (Lower boundary of the wedge)
Immediate Resistance: ~55,350 (Tested supply zone)
Current Market Price (CMP): 55,001.65
If the price sustains above 55,070 and breaks out with volume, we may see bullish continuation toward 55,350–55,600.
📊 Volume Analysis:
Volume remained low during the wedge formation – a healthy sign.
A volume breakout confirmation is awaited.
Keep an eye on a green volume bar spike as price crosses wedge resistance.
🧠 Observational Bias:
As long as price holds above 54,800, the short-term bias remains bullish.
A successful retest of the breakout zone or a strong close above 55,070 with volume may offer a high-probability intraday opportunity.
📌Note: Traders can wait for a confirmation candle (close above wedge) before entering.
Risk management is key—keep stop loss below 54,800.
Massive Breakout Loading? GOKEX Smashes Through Triple TimeframeGOKALDAS EXPORTS LTD (GOKEX) is showing serious strength with a powerful breakout candle currently in play – but the real story is the multi-timeframe technical alignment:
📏 MTF Structure
Yellow Parallel Channel from Monthly shows a long-term structure still intact.
Red Horizontal Resistance marks the previous MTF peak – now under threat.
🔻 WTF Pressure
Pink Counter-Trendlines acted as significant resistance on the Weekly – both pierced.
⚡ DTF Precision
White CT Line (Daily) finally broken with conviction.
Dotted White Lines reveal multiple hidden resistances — all cleanly taken out by today's surge.
📊 Volume & Candle Strength
Volume spiking, price up over 16% intraday — just waiting on confirmation at close.
🧠 Watch Closely: A close above today’s highs could flip this into a full-blown A+ breakout setup.
Falling Wedge Breakout + AB=CD Bullish Pattern | Daily Chart📈 KEI INDUSTRIES LTD – Falling Wedge Breakout + AB=CD Bullish Pattern | Daily Chart
🗓️ Date: May 07, 2025
💹 Timeframe: Daily
🏢 Stock: KEI Industries Ltd (NSE)
📊 Chart Analysis Overview:
KEI has broken out of a Falling Wedge pattern, a classic bullish continuation/reversal signal, backed by strong volume surge and a completed AB=CD harmonic leg — indicating the bulls are stepping in with conviction.
After weeks of corrective move, the price respected the wedge’s support, formed higher lows, and has now convincingly breached the upper trendline.
🔎 Pattern Breakdown:
✅ Falling Wedge: Identified with red trendlines showing price compression.
✅ AB=CD Harmonic: Blue legs marking symmetrical retracement and projection.
✅ Breakout Confirmation: Bullish candles closing above the wedge resistance with momentum.
📌 Key Technical Levels:
🔴 Support Zone: ₹2,424 (Previous swing low & harmonic completion)
🟢 Resistance Ahead: ₹3,324 (Recent price ceiling)
⚡ CMP: ₹3,318.50
A clean close above ₹3,324 could ignite the next leg of momentum, possibly toward ₹3,500–₹3,650 in coming sessions.
📈 Volume Insight:
Breakout is supported by a noticeable volume expansion — suggesting participation by smart money and institutional interest.
📰 March Quarter Results – Strong Fundamentals:
📈 Consolidated Net Profit:
🟢 ₹226.5 Cr — up 34.5% YoY (vs ₹168.5 Cr last year)
📊 Revenue:
🟢 ₹2,914.8 Cr — up 25.1% YoY (vs ₹2,329.9 Cr)
This earnings momentum adds a fundamental tailwind to the ongoing technical rally.
🧠 Market Bias & Strategy:
As long as the price holds above ₹3,000 and respects the breakout structure, the trend favors bullish momentum traders.
📍 Lookout for a pullback-to-retest near ₹3,200–₹3,250 as a potential entry zone with low-risk, high-reward setup.
🔔 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only, not investment advice. Always do your own research or consult your advisor before trading.
Gold Plunges from 3435 After China Rate Cut FOMC Storm Incoming?Gold Plunges from 3435 After China Rate Cut – FOMC Storm Incoming?
📅 May 7, 2025 | XAU/USD Intraday Outlook
Gold faced a sharp decline in early sessions today, dropping nearly 800 PIPS from 3,435 down to the 3,36x range. While the fall appeared aggressive, the macro backdrop may provide clues — especially ahead of tonight's high-stakes FOMC meeting.
🔍 What Triggered the Sell-off?
1️⃣ China Cuts Rates by 10bps Unexpectedly:
Just ahead of U.S.–China trade talks, China slashed its benchmark interest rate by 10bps. While the move supports Chinese markets, it also boosts the U.S. Dollar (DXY), creating headwinds for gold.
2️⃣ Investors Awaiting FOMC Clarity:
Traders are hesitant to buy gold near recent highs, especially with the Fed expected to signal rate direction tonight. There’s growing speculation that today's events are part of a broader setup for potential Fed easing.
3️⃣ Geopolitical Tensions Not Helping Gold – Yet:
Despite renewed tensions between India and Pakistan, and a volatile global climate, gold hasn't responded bullishly — a sign that technicals and macro shifts are temporarily outweighing news-based fear.
📈 Technical Analysis – Dual Scenarios in Play
Gold is now moving in a wide, volatile range. Liquidity grabs at both ends are likely, and traders should adopt a flexible, confirmation-based approach rather than sticking to one directional bias.
🔺 Key Resistance Zones:
3,390
3,402
3,416
3,432
3,444
3,468
🔻 Key Support Zones:
3,365
3,356
3,332
3,314
🎯 Trade Plan – May 7, 2025 (Pre-FOMC Strategy)
🔵 BUY SCALP
• Entry: 3,355
• SL: 3,350
• TP: 3,360 → 3,364 → 3,368 → 3,372 → 3,376 → 3,380
🔵 BUY ZONE
• Entry: 3,332 – 3,330
• SL: 3,326
• TP: 3,336 → 3,340 → 3,344 → 3,348 → 3,352 → 3,358 → 3,365
📌 KEY BUY LEVEL to Watch:
→ 3,314 – 3,312
⚠️ This is a critical Fibonacci zone. If broken, trend structure may be compromised. Use wide SL (~6 PIPS) with open TP structure.
🔴 SELL SCALP
• Entry: 3,430 – 3,432
• SL: 3,436
• TP: 3,425 → 3,420 → 3,415 → 3,410 → 3,400
🔴 SELL ZONE
• Entry: 3,468 – 3,470
• SL: 3,474
• TP: 3,464 → 3,460 → 3,455 → 3,450 → 3,445 → 3,440 → 3,430
⚠️ Final Thoughts:
Today’s FOMC statement will likely dominate market direction for the rest of the week. Volatility is expected to increase sharply. With both macro and geopolitical catalysts in play, risk management is non-negotiable.
🔐 Stick to key zones. Avoid trading the news blindly. Wait for price action confirmation — and remember: capital protection beats every setup.
📌 Follow this post to get real-time updates after FOMC and new breakout zones for Thursday.
Range-Bound Between Key Supply & Demand Zones🏦 HDFC Bank Ltd – Range-Bound Between Key Supply & Demand Zones 📊
Timeframe: 15-Minute | Exchange: NSE | Date: May 6, 2025
CMP: 1,929.00
🔴 Retested Supply Zone: 1949.60 - 1958.40
This zone previously acted as resistance after a sharp fall.
Price revisited the zone but was rejected, indicating potential selling pressure.
A breakout above this level could trigger bullish continuation.
🟢 Possible Demand Zone: 1898 - 1891.80
Price rebounded from this zone earlier, showing possible accumulation by buyers.
Not confirmed yet with multiple tests, but worth watching for potential support.
Breakdown below this may open the door to further downside.
📌 Current Price Action
HDFC Bank is currently consolidating between these two zones.
No clear trend yet; price is oscillating sideways.
Volume is decreasing, indicating lack of momentum in either direction.
📈 Levels to Watch
Breakout Zone: 1,959+
Breakdown Zone: 1,890-
🔍 Observational Bias
Bearish Bias: If price revisits 1949.60 - 1958.40 zone and shows rejection, potential short setups may emerge.
Bullish Bias: If price retests 1898 - 1891.80 with bullish confirmation, long trades may be considered.
Marico Ltd- Cup & Handle Breakout Forming?Marico Ltd.—Cup & Handle Breakout Forming? ☕️📈
📆 Date: April 10, 2025
📊 Chart Analysis:
Marico is showing a classic "cup & handle" pattern, a bullish continuation setup. The price has successfully broken above the neckline resistance, indicating a potential for upward continuation if volume sustains.
📌 Key Levels:
🛑 Resistance (neckline—now flipped to support): ₹685
✅ Support (Base of Cup): ₹580
🔼 Immediate Resistance Targets: ₹710 ➡️ ₹735 ➡️ ₹765
📈 Indicators & Technicals:
☕ Cup & Handle Pattern clearly visible with a rounded bottom and breakout above resistance.
🔍 RSI at 71.35 shows bullish momentum but is slightly overbought —a sign of strength with caution.
💹 Volume steadily increasing — confirms accumulation phase and breakout intent.
🟥 Multiple "Bear" RSI icons (prior weakness) followed by a ✅ "Bull" label hinting at a momentum shift.
📉 Bearish divergence in RSI is now getting invalidated by price strength and pattern breakout.
🧠 Trade Plan:
📌 Entry near ₹685–₹695 breakout zone
🎯 Targets: ₹710 ➡️ ₹735 ➡️ ₹765
❌ SL: ₹670 (below neckline)
📌 Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Do your own research or consult with a SEBI-registered advisor before trading or investing
GOLD - Will Geopolitical Shocks Fuel a Bigger Rally?🚨 GOLD SURGES IN ASIA OPEN – Will Geopolitical Shocks Fuel a Bigger Rally?
Gold opened the week with a powerful bullish spike in the Asia session, rallying nearly $30/oz amid renewed global tensions and policy uncertainty. The strong upside momentum marks a potential shift in sentiment after recent corrections.
🌍 What’s Driving the Market?
🔺 Geopolitical Risks Back on the Radar:
Tensions are rising again between Russia–Ukraine and India–Pakistan with no clear diplomatic resolution in sight.
This reintroduces safe-haven demand for gold as global uncertainty climbs.
🔺 Trump’s Pressure on the Fed:
Former President Trump has urged the Fed to cut interest rates sooner, adding further speculation ahead of the FOMC meeting this week.
These combined factors have sparked strong buying interest right from the Asia open, with the yellow metal attempting to reclaim lost ground from previous sessions.
📈 Technical Overview (H1 – H2 Focus):
🟢 Key Support Zones:
3250
3246
3238
3224
3204
🔴 Key Resistance Zones:
3278
3288
3301
3314
🎯 Trade Setup for the Day:
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3246 – 3244
SL: 3240
TP: 3250 → 3254 → 3258 → 3262 → 3266 → 3270 → 3280
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3300 – 3302
SL: 3306
TP: 3296 → 3292 → 3288 → 3284 → 3280 → 3270
⚠️ Final Notes:
With the FOMC meeting ahead and geopolitical developments unfolding, traders should expect heightened volatility this week. Gold may continue to attract safe-haven flows if headlines escalate, but any dovish surprise from the Fed could accelerate the rally even further.
📌 Stay alert. Let price come to your zones. Trade the reaction, not the assumption.
GOLD - Will FOMC and Tariff Talks Decide the Next Big Move?💥 GOLD WEEKLY OUTLOOK – Will FOMC and Tariff Talks Decide the Next Big Move?
As we head into a critical trading week, gold is at a crossroads, navigating through conflicting macro signals and important structural levels. Last week’s developments — ranging from strong US NFP data to China’s unexpected SGX:40B tariff waiver — have significantly reshaped sentiment in the precious metals market.
🌐 Macro Backdrop – Shift in Global Risk Tone
🔹 China’s Tariff Waiver on selected US goods hints at improving trade ties. This eases geopolitical risks and reduces the urgency for safe-haven assets like gold.
🔹 Stronger-than-expected NFP (Nonfarm Payrolls) further solidifies a hawkish bias for the Fed. A robust labor market may push the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer.
🔹 DXY & Bond Yields are holding firm. A stronger USD and rising yields typically weigh on gold — unless major risks re-emerge.
📌 FOMC Meeting This Week – Traders are now watching the Fed’s next move closely. Any dovish tone could fuel gold’s rebound. A surprise hawkish tone? Expect further selloffs.
🔍 Technical Landscape (H4 + Daily Focus)
Gold is currently forming a descending wedge pattern, with lower highs and solid support holding around the 3,224 – 3,204 zone.
Last week’s rejection at the 3,277 resistance aligns with macro-driven selling pressure. However, price continues to respect key Fibonacci levels and internal trendline dynamics, suggesting a potential for large breakout movement after FOMC.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3,240
3,250
3,264
3,277
3,311
🔻 Key Support Levels:
3,224
3,210
3,204
🎯 Trade Plan – Week of May 6th, 2025
🔵 BUY ZONE A: 3,204 – 3,202
SL: 3,198
TP: 3,208 → 3,212 → 3,216 → 3,220 → 3,225 → 3,230
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3,276 – 3,278
SL: 3,282
TP: 3,272 → 3,268 → 3,264 → 3,260 → 3,250 → 3,240
⚠️ Key Risks to Monitor This Week:
🏛 FOMC Statement & Powell’s Press Conference
→ Any hint of rate cuts = Gold bullish
→ Any reaffirmation of higher for longer = More downside
💼 Trade Developments (US–China)
→ Further easing of tariffs = Negative for gold
→ Any new friction = Potential rebound
📉 DXY & Bond Yields
→ Keep an eye on Dollar strength. If DXY breaks above 106.5, gold may face deeper pressure.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
The gold market is no longer driven by one-sided risk-off flows. As macro tensions ease, gold is transitioning into a more range-bound, news-driven phase.
This week is all about reaction, not prediction.
Let the market come to your zone. Wait for confirmation before executing. The best trades come from discipline — not prediction.
📌 Follow this account for real-time updates during FOMC and Friday’s CPI preview.
GBP/USD Eyes NFP & BoE Amid Trade Tensions Relief🔔 GBP/USD Eyes NFP & BoE Amid Trade Tensions Relief
Sterling (GBP) has rebounded against the US dollar (USD), riding a wave of improved market sentiment after signs of de-escalation in the US–China trade conflict. As investors reposition ahead of today’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and next week’s Bank of England (BoE) rate decision, GBP/USD finds itself at a pivotal moment.
🌐 Macro Picture: A Tale of Two Central Banks
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% during next week’s meeting.
The BoE, meanwhile, is almost certain to cut rates by 25 basis points, pricing in weak UK inflation data and global trade uncertainties.
Meanwhile, sentiment got a boost after China's Ministry of Commerce signalled openness to trade talks with the US, provided “sincerity” is shown — easing fears of a prolonged trade war.
This shift in tone lifted risk appetite and helped push GBP/USD back near the 1.3320 zone, recovering from earlier losses this week.
🧭 Focus Turns to Today’s NFP
Markets expect:
+130K jobs added in April (vs. 228K prior)
Unemployment rate holding at 4.2%
Wage growth YoY to increase slightly to 3.9%
Any significant surprise may reshape rate expectations for the Fed, especially after recent ISM data showed rising input costs — suggesting inflation remains sticky.
📊 Technical Outlook – GBP/USD
After bouncing from the 1.3245–1.3265 zone, GBP/USD is approaching a heavy resistance range around 1.3335–1.3375. A break above this could invalidate the bearish setup, while failure may trigger a strong downside rotation toward 1.3185 – 1.3145.
🔺 Key Resistance:
1.33350
1.33750
🔻 Key Support:
1.32650
1.32450
1.31850
1.31450
🎯 Trade Plan
🔵 SELL ZONE: 1.33350 – 1.33750
SL: 1.34000
TP: 1.33300 → 1.32850 → 1.32550 → 1.32000
🔴 BUY ZONE: 1.32650 – 1.32450
SL: 1.33250
TP: 1.32250 → 1.31850 → 1.31450 → 1.31000
⚠️ Trading Notes:
NFP volatility could create false breakouts — wait for confirmation before committing size.
Post-NFP, market focus will quickly shift to the BoE decision on May 9th.
Expect traders to react swiftly to wage growth and job creation figures.
🧠 Final Thoughts:
GBP/USD is trading at a sensitive macro-technical intersection. While optimism on trade and NFP relief could boost the pair, BoE’s likely rate cut still clouds the medium-term path.
Stay patient. Let price react to the data before jumping in.
💬 What’s your positioning into NFP? Let's discuss below 👇👇
EUR/USD at Key Inflection Point🔥 EUR/USD at Key Inflection Point – NFP Looms, Volatility Incoming?
The euro is pushing back after three days of losses, bouncing from the 1.1265 area with strength — but make no mistake, this is more than just a technical move. With Eurozone CPI holding and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) right ahead, EUR/USD is poised at the edge of serious volatility.
🧭 Macro Overview – Diverging Paths?
Friday’s Eurozone inflation numbers surprised slightly to the upside:
Headline CPI YoY: 2.2% vs. 2.1% expected
Core CPI YoY: 2.7% vs. 2.5% expected
These numbers suggest ECB might not be in a rush to slash rates, despite growing dovish commentary from policymakers. Yet, the market still prices in a likely 25bps cut in July.
Meanwhile in the US, expectations are building for a soft NFP print – 130K vs. 228K prior. This, along with recent weak growth data, has fueled speculation of multiple rate cuts from the Fed in 2025. The USD has paused after a 3-day rally — and that makes today’s NFP extremely sensitive.
🔍 Technical Picture (H1 Outlook)
Price action shows EUR/USD reclaiming ground above 1.1300 after defending the key 1.1265–1.1279 support zone. A potential short-term reversal pattern is forming, but the move remains fragile until we see confirmation above 1.1350 and 1.1372.
Bearish structure remains valid unless bulls can take out 1.1419, the high from April 30.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
1.13520
1.13730
1.13900
1.14190
🔻 Key Support Levels:
1.13000
1.12790
1.12650
🎯 Trade Plan – Friday 3rd May
🔵 BUY ZONE: 1.12790
SL: 1.12250
TP: 1.13450 → 1.13850 → 1.14250
🔴 SELL ZONE: 1.13750
SL: 1.14300
TP: 1.13250 → 1.12850 → 1.12450 → 1.12400
⚠️ Strategy Notes:
Euro has room to bounce, but momentum will likely depend on the US jobs report.
A soft NFP could weaken the dollar further, triggering a break above 1.1372.
On the flip side, strong jobs numbers + hawkish White House language could reinforce bearish continuation below 1.1300.
📣 Final Thoughts:
EUR/USD is stuck in macro limbo. Both sides have valid narratives — sticky inflation in Europe, softening labour data in the US.
📊 Today’s close will likely define next week’s tone.
🧠 Be selective. Don’t chase. Let the data lead.
💬 What’s your take ahead of NFP? Breakout or fakeout?
Drop your chart ideas below 👇👇👇
NFP & White House Comments to Spark Heavy Volatility?🚨 Gold Pauses at Crossroads – NFP & White House Comments to Spark Heavy Volatility?
Gold is entering the US session with a quiet rebound after an intense selloff phase. Following its historic rally to $3,500/oz, the yellow metal has come under significant pressure — not from fundamentals alone, but from massive profit-taking across Asia, especially from retail investors in China.
Such sharp pullbacks are not abnormal after parabolic runs. Instead, this pullback seems like a healthy technical reset before the market processes two major catalysts later today:
1️⃣ The US Nonfarm Payrolls report (May edition)
2️⃣ Official White House comments on tariffs and trade direction
Together, they’re likely to dictate where Gold is heading next — either a retracement deeper into the demand zones, or a renewed upside attempt toward recent resistance.
📊 DXY & Macro Lens:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded strongly from its base near 98.xx, now reclaiming levels near 100.00. Whether it continues higher depends largely on labor data and economic signals from the White House tonight.
For now, traders should remain neutral-biased but responsive — and treat every key level with surgical precision. Use the H1–H2 timeframe for intraday bias and structure-based execution.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
3260
3275
3285
3312
🔻 Key Support Levels:
3244
3230
3215
3200
🎯 Trade Plan for Today – May 3rd, 2025:
🔵 BUY ZONE A: 3232 – 3230
SL: 3226
TP: 3236 → 3240 → 3244 → 3248 → 3252 → 3256 → 3260
🔵 BUY ZONE B: 3214 – 3212
SL: 3208
TP: 3218 → 3222 → 3226 → 3230 → 3235 → 3240
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3276 – 3278
SL: 3282
TP: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260 → 3250
⚠️ Final Notes:
Volatility today could spike sharply during the US session. With nonfarm data + political headlines colliding at once, this is the kind of session where fortunes are made — or lost.
📌 Avoid emotional trades. Let price reach your zones, wait for confirmation, and stick to your TP/SL rules like a professional.
🚀 The real move hasn't happened yet — but it's coming.
Be ready. Be sharp. Trade with discipline.
Reliance - Price action channel + Candlestick + RSIKey Observations from the Chart
Channel Structure -
Both resistance and support lines have been tested multiple times with precise reactions
The most recent price action shows a strong rejection at the lower channel boundary
Candlestick Formation-
This month printed a textbook strong lower wick rejection candle:
Long lower wick indicates buyers aggressively stepping in at support
RSI Confluence-
The RSI tells a compelling complementary story:
Recently retested COVID-era levels (historic oversold territory)
Has since established higher highs and higher lows (bullish structure)
Shows positive divergence with price (RSI making HHs while price tests support)
Gold’s Calm Before the US Data Storm – Are You Ready?Consolidation Continues Amid Global Holidays – Is Gold Gearing Up for Another Leg?
🌐 Fundamental Insight:
After last week’s historic rally toward $3,500/oz, gold has entered a cooling phase as markets digest evolving geopolitical developments and economic signals. The recent de-escalation in US-China trade tensions, triggered by President Trump’s plan to ease tariffs on auto parts and imports, has reduced immediate risk sentiment.
China’s response — lifting retaliatory duties on select US goods — further eased tensions, leading to a safe-haven selloff in precious metals. However, with uncertainty still looming ahead of this week’s US labour data (ADP + NFP), investors remain cautious.
Adding to this, today’s Bank Holidays in parts of Asia and Europe are contributing to reduced trading volumes. A sideways market with erratic moves is likely until the US session opens, where higher volume and stronger direction may emerge.
🔍 Technical Picture (H1 – H4 Outlook):
Gold is currently forming a compression pattern between the 3278 resistance zone and the 3196 demand area. Price is holding above key structure support near 3192, indicating buyer interest remains intact.
The market may continue to oscillate in this tight intraday range before US traders step in. All eyes are now on upcoming ADP employment data — often a lead indicator for Friday’s NFP — which could provide the next directional push.
🔺 Key Resistance Zones:
3248
3260
3278
🔻 Key Support Zones:
3230
3225
3215
3196
🎯 Trade Strategy – April 30
🔵 BUY ZONE: 3198 – 3196
Stop-Loss: 3192
Take-Profits: 3202 → 3206 → 3210 → 3215 → 3220 → 3225 → 3230
🔴 SELL ZONE: 3276 – 3278
Stop-Loss: 3282
Take-Profits: 3272 → 3268 → 3264 → 3260
🧠 Note: Short-term traders may consider scalping within the range, while swing traders can wait for a break and retest of either key zone before committing with volume.
⚠️ Things to Watch Today:
Thin liquidity due to Labour Day holidays across Asia & Europe
ADP report release in the US session (potential volatility spike)
End-of-month candle close — watch out for liquidity grabs and false breakouts
US 10Y bond yields and DXY movements will continue to influence gold sentiment
📌 Final Thoughts:
Gold is in pause mode, but not for long. The market is clearly building energy ahead of high-impact US data. With the broader trend still bullish and structure holding above 3190s, we stay cautiously optimistic — but flexible.
Risk management will be critical today. Expect the unexpected during low-volume sessions and be prepared for sharp moves when the US opens.
📈 Stay disciplined. Respect your zones. And let the data lead the way.