Gold: Ready to Shoot?Gold and Silver is money, everything else is credit – JP Morgan
Primary Uptrend
This guy is not just flaunting these assets but the primary trend in this chart unearths the truth behind his statement. Really strong trend since our childhood – of course not fully visible due to data limitations. A furious rally started since March 2020 dip and took it to 56191 from 38400 (46%) in just 20 weeks – perhaps the fastest one in absolute terms.
Harsh Reaction
Like any other bull run, this one also faced a harsh reaction from August 2020. Wiped out almost one-fifth of the gains (21% from top) in a 33week time period. Comparing to Mar2020 rally to the top, this reaction was bit slower in terms of time duration. 46% in 20weeks verses 21% in 33weeks.
More than just a Pullback
Gold pulled back near 50000 mark and created a psychological resistance zone. The pullback gained momentum after breaking this zone and retested all time high zone. This spike was more than just a pullback.
The Second Reaction
The second reaction started from March 2022 and ended near the prior psychological level 50000. So, resistance turned into a support. This reaction took 28 weeks but the reaction was just 12% from the March top. Comparing with the Aug2020 reaction, this one lacked momentum on the downside – as reaction was smaller in approximately same time period.
The price-time analysis of both the reactions suggest that this time sellers were not very active and buyers were busy in accumulation at lower levels. Small and time consuming reactions with sharp rallies are good omen for investors.
Momentum Rally
The current rally from Sep end 2022 is very swift. The price may face some hurdles near major resistance zone of 56191 to 54789. If the higher low trend persists, there may be further congestion. Theoretically congestions lead to expansions and the bullish nature of the ascending triangle congestion (see chart) signals expansion in the upward direction.
If that happens, an immediate target for the triangle could go around 67000.
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Timestudy
Nifty time study - Educational series 4Hi All ,
This is just time study and not the price target/ level study.
Considering Nifty weekly chart , Aug 2013 is main starting Anchor point I have considered:
Following are longer time observation
Aug 2013 (low) - March 2015 (high) - 79 bars (i.e weeks)
March 2015 (high) - September 2016 (high) - 79 bars
Sep 2016 (high) - 12-19 March 2018 (My assumption , New All time high) - 79 bars
Following are shorter time observation
Feb 2016 (low) - September 2016 (high) 27 bars
Feb 2016 (low) - December 2016 (low ) 27 x1.61 = 43 bars
Feb 2016 (low) - june/july 2017 (low , My assumption ) 27 x 2.61 = 70 bars
Following are very shorter time observation
September 2016 (high) - December 2016 (low ) 16 bars
December 2016 (low ) - March 2017 (high , My assumption) 16 X 0.61 = 10 bars
December 2016 (low ) - June /july 2017 ( low , My assumption) 16 X 1.61 = 26 bars
Please Note : The future time projections low /high which I have mentioned are my assumption. So it can be wrong.
Disclaimer : This not advise for investing ,Consult your financial adviser before investing.