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LiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of NovemberLiamTrading – XAUUSD D1 | Scenario for Week 2 of November Accumulation range 4047–3928, prioritise buying on breakout – watch for short at 4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382) Overview: After the correction from the historical peak, gold is forming a bottom – accumulating in the price box 4047–3928. The D1 structure still leans towards a medium-term uptrend if the price holds above 3928; the ~4200 area coincides with a broad FVG + Fib 0.382, a “liquidity pool” prone to strong reactions. Macro Summary Hedging flows against public debt/deficit risks and net buying demand from some central banks/Asian bloc support the long-term trend. Expectations of a cooling interest rate path in 2026 help ease pressure on gold, but pullbacks may still occur before major technical milestones. Technical Analysis (D1 Frame – Trendline | S/R | Volume zone | Fibonacci) Accumulation Range: 4047 (top of the box) ↔️ 3928 (bottom of the box). D1 closing above 4047 confirms an upper range expansion; breaking 3928 triggers a deeper decline to lower Fib levels. Fibonacci of the most recent up wave: The price is oscillating around 0.618 → tendency to form a base. Deeper area if the base breaks: 0.5 ~ 3850 and 0.382 ~ 3710. Key resistance: 4090–4120 (mid-box area), ~4200 (FVG + Fib 0.382) – expected large liquidity/short-term reversal zone. Important support: 3990–4010 (psychological/trading cushion), 3928 (lower range – breakout mark). Trendline: The medium-term uptrend line remains intact if corrections do not close below 3928. Trading Scenario for the New Week Scenario 1 – Buy with the trend on upper range breakout Condition: D1 closes above 4047, retest holds firm at 4038–4047. Entry: 4048–4055 SL: 4018 TP: 4090 → 4120 → 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382) Management: Take partial profit at 4090/4120, move SL to breakeven at +1R. Scenario 1b – Buy at the box bottom (fade range) Entry: 3935–3945 (when there is a rejection candle/clear buying tail at 3928–3945) SL: 3895 TP: 3995–4010 → 4040–4047 Note: If D1 closes below 3928, cancel the plan and switch bias to a bearish scenario. Scenario 2 – Short reaction at the 4200 liquidity zone Entry: 4185–4205 (FVG + Fib 0.382) when clear rejection appears on D1/H4 SL: 4225 TP: 4120 → 4047 → 4010 (extended target: 3850 if there is a breakdown signal) Note: Counter-trend order; reduce volume, exit quickly if D1 closes above 4205. Risk & Invalidation The medium-term bullish bias remains valid as long as D1 does not close below 3928. D1 closing below 3928 opens the path to 3850 (Fib 0.5), even 3710 (Fib 0.382). Strong news (CPI, employment, central bank speeches) can disrupt signals; wait for candle closure according to the chosen frame. Summary Gold is “spring-loaded” within 4047–3928. Priority plan: Buy on breakout–hold 4047 to aim for 4090–4120 and test ~4200; simultaneously watch for short reaction at 4200. If 3928 breaks, switch scenario to decline towards 3850 → 3710.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
XAUUSD – H4 PERSPECTIVE: WAIT FOR LIQUIDITY TEST BEFORE DEEP...💛 XAUUSD – H4 PERSPECTIVE: WAIT FOR LIQUIDITY TEST BEFORE DEEP DECLINE 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone 💬 Gold just ended the week with a candle closing at the 4001 region, after a slight rise and then holding steady in the upward channel on the H4 frame. The current sideways movement is making it difficult for many traders to find short-term entry points. However, the 4090 area still has an unfilled liquidity gap (FVG), which coincides with the upper edge of the price channel. This could be the next short-term destination before the market adjusts for a deeper decline. From my perspective, gold might rise another leg to sweep the liquidity in the upper region, then adjust back to the 3785 area – an important Fibonacci Retracement zone, where a strong reaction from buyers is highly likely. 💹 2. Technical Analysis 📈 The price structure is still maintaining an upward trend within the H4 price channel, with each subsequent low being higher than the previous one. 🟣 The 4090–4102 area is a liquidity region yet to be swept, located at the channel's peak – a high probability of a downward reaction. 🔹 The potential Buy zone around 3785–3789 coincides with Fibonacci 0.618 and a strong historical support area. 💫 Main scenario: Price might test the upper liquidity region, then adjust down to the Buy Zone before forming a larger upward momentum. 🎯 3. Reference Trading Plan 💢 SELL scenario (short-term) Entry: 4098–4102 ｜ SL: 4112 TP: 4078 – 4025 – 3998 – 3920 – 3875 – 3785 💖 BUY scenario (long-term strategy) Entry: 3785–3789 ｜ SL: 3777 TP: 3810 – 3865 – 3925 – 3988 ⚠️ 4. Important Notes Prioritize short-term Sell if there is a strong reaction at the 4090–4100 region. Long-term Buy only if the price adjusts deeply to the 3785–3790 region. Limit emotional trading – this is a liquidity accumulation phase before major volatility. 🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2 Gold is following the accumulation path before forming a major wave 💛 Be patient and observe reactions at the two critical regions 4090 and 3785, as these could be the pivot points for the coming week.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
$NEAR Ready for a Massive Breakout: Next Stop $20+ Incoming CRYPTOCAP:NEAR Ready for a Massive Breakout: Next Stop $20+ Incoming The chart structure looks absolutely explosive right now! $NEAR/USDT has bounced hard from the triangle support, confirming strength and signaling that a massive rally is brewing. I’ve been accumulating heavy in the $2.50 - $1.90 zone, expecting a big breakout rally ahead! Targets: $7.70 / $16.70 / $30 / $50 If CRYPTOCAP:NEAR can smash through the $5 resistance, get ready for a vertical flight toward $20+, with long-term eyes on $50 Why I’m ultra-bullish: ✅ Strong recovery from key support zone ✅ Bullish triangle breakout structure ✅ Volume uptick showing accumulation ✅ Momentum shifting rapidly toward bulls Chart invalidation below $1.50, but above that, it’s looking unstoppable. NFA & DYOR
Long
by CryptoPatel
XAUUSD – AWAITING CONFIRMATION OF UPTREND – TARGET 4050💛 XAUUSD – AWAITING CONFIRMATION OF UPTREND – TARGET 4050 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone 💬 Gold today remains in a phase of indecision – waiting for signals to confirm a new trend. On the H2 chart, the price has broken the downtrend line and is retesting this line. The structure of “higher lows” indicates that buying pressure is gradually gaining dominance. The previous peak around 4018 is currently the decisive point for the trend – if the price confirms a breakout above, the upward momentum may extend towards the 4050 area. Currently, the market is fluctuating within the range of 3964 – 4018, and needs to break out of this zone to determine a clearer direction. 💹 2. ICT Perspective 📈 The price has broken the downtrend line and retested the structure on the H2 chart – an early signal for the potential formation of an uptrend. 🟣 The area 3964–4018 is a short-term liquidity accumulation zone before the price expands. 🔹 OB 4040–4042 coincides with significant resistance, suitable for short sell orders (scalp) if there is a strong reaction. 💫 When the price surpasses 4018, the upward structure will be confirmed and the expansion target may aim towards 4050 – 4077. 🎯 3. Reference Trading Plan 💖 BUY scenario (priority when confirmed) Entry: above 4018 ｜ SL: 4011 TP: 4025 – 4033 – 4050 – 4077 💢 Short SELL scenario (scalping) Entry: 4040–4042 ｜ SL: 4046 TP: 4022 – 4015 – 3998 ⚠️ 4. Important Notes Clear confirmation is needed when breaking the 4018 zone before entering a buy order. If the price continues to fluctuate within the 3964–4018 range, trading should be limited. Today is Friday, manage risk more tightly, prioritise accuracy in each order. 🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2 Gold is showing positive signals 💛 Be patient and wait for reactions around the 4018 zone – this could be the start of a new uptrend if clearly confirmed.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Nifty 1-Hour Chart – Double Top PatternThe trade has successfully reached the target levels. 🔹 Trade Recap *Entry:** Sell near 25,700 Stop Loss:** 26,100 Target: 25,320 ✅ *Achieved* 🔹 Update The double top breakdown played out as expected, and Nifty slipped toward the 25,300 zone after breaching the neckline near 25,700. Traders are advised to **book profits** at current levels and **close short positions** as the target has been met. Further direction will depend on whether Nifty sustains below 25,300 or shows signs of consolidation and reversal.
NSE:NIFTY
by RANAPRATAP24
2
BTC Breakdown Confirmed, Structure Flipped Bearish: Next $88610?BTC Breakdown Confirmed, Structure Flipped Bearish: Next Stop $83,610? Support is broken and the structure confirms a clear bearish shift. #Bitcoin failed to reclaim the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, turning it into strong resistance. High chances CRYPTOCAP:BTC could fill the FVG and continue the downside move toward $83,610. Bulls remain trapped unless price reclaims $116,400, the bearish invalidation zone. Trend bias remains bearish. Liquidity targets below are in play. NFa & DYOR
Short
by CryptoPatel
VCP Formation within Symmetrical Triangle above 200 EMAThis chart displays a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) developing within a classic symmetrical triangle on the daily timeframe. Two sharply converging trendlines encapsulate the price action with the lower line connecting a series of higher lows (the trendline) and the upper line linking lower highs (counter trendline). Such convergence is characteristic of symmetrical triangles, which represent a period of price consolidation and equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Volume tends to contract as the pattern matures, signaling market indecision and reduced volatility. Notably, this consolidation is taking place right around the 200-day moving average, which serves as an important reference point for longer-term market participants. The convergence of price and volume patterns here aligns with textbook VCP behaviour and highlights the potential for significant crowd psychology shifts. This post’s intent is observational and educational, focusing on the visual behavior of price and volume embedded within technical patterns. Studying such symmetries can strengthen understanding of market structure and technical analysis skills, allowing for systematic review rather than speculative outlooks or trade signals.
NSE:REDINGTONLong
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis
ETH/USDT dumped 20% after my analysisETHEREUM Update: Price just hit the bullish order block at $3,057 and bounced exactly as predicted ✅ Quick recap: ✅ Short-term: I’m bearish below $3,920, next potential leg down $2,500–$2,200 if $3,000 support breaks. ✅ Medium-term: Holding $3,000 support is key, could spark the next bullish wave. ✅ Long-term: Still super bullish & Target remains $10K–$15K ETH Paper hands panic. Legends load the blood & hold. Which one are you? 👇 NFA & DYOR
Long
by CryptoPatel
2
XAUUSD – INTRADAY BULLISH SCENARIO – TARGET 4050💛 XAUUSD – INTRADAY BULLISH SCENARIO – TARGET 4050 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone 💬 Although the larger timeframe for gold still leans towards a bearish trend, today in the short term, I prioritise a bullish scenario. On the M30 timeframe, the price structure is gradually increasing, indicating that short-term capital is shifting to the buying side. Zone 3990 is a very important area – where a Break of Structure (BOS) has just appeared and is also a strong resistance that has reacted multiple times before. Price needs to confirm breaking this zone to continue expanding the bullish trend. 💹 2. Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective) 📈 An ascending structure (BOS) has formed on M30. 🟣 Buy Zone 3977–3979 coincides with the support trendline – a beautiful confluence point for buyers. 🔹 Resistance zone 3990–4000 is the area to confirm the main direction. 💫 Higher target: Fibonacci Extension 1.618 around 4049–4050, coinciding with the psychological resistance 4050. 🎯 3. Trading Plan Reference 💖 MAIN BUY (priority) Entry: 3977–3979 ｜ SL: 3970 TP: 3988 – 4000 – 4022 – 4040 – 4050 💢 SHORT SELL (when price reacts strongly at resistance) Entry: 4012–4014 ｜ SL: 4020 TP: 4002 – 3988 – 3965 ⚠️ 4. Important Notes Price needs to confirm through zone 3990 to reinforce the bullish trend. If it breaks below 3970, the ascending structure is temporarily invalidated. Today, prioritise buying according to the capital flow, sell only when there is a clear signal at the resistance zone. 🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2 Gold is showing positive signals 💛 Patiently wait for reactions at the Buy Zone 3977–3979, this could be the starting point for a new upward move towards 4050. This is not investment advice, just a personal perspective according to the ICT method. If you find it useful, please 💛 like – 💬 comment – 🔔 follow LanaM2 to update gold analysis with me every day ✨
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Recurring VCP Structures: Multi-Phase Consolidation & Expansion1 . This chart distinctly showcases a series of visually captivating Volatility Contraction Patterns (VCPs) across multiple phases, elegantly demarcated by yellow trendlines that map out both historical and present consolidation zones. Each contraction zone is marked by repeated, precise touches on trend boundaries, reflecting steady accumulation followed by eruptive volatility and sharp price expansions—almost like a pattern “echo” cycling through the chart. 2 . The highlighted VCP structures reveal not just one, but several contraction-and-expansion cycles, creating an intricate tapestry of market behaviour. Note how each phase includes a concentrated period of sideways price movement, where activity compresses before unleashing swift, directional breakouts. The interplay of these phases turns the chart into a textbook reference for sequential VCP observation, with periods of quiet consolidation—almost like calm before a storm—setting the stage for pronounced volatility bursts. 3 . Recent activity amplifies this effect: vivid volatility swings transition rapidly into tight consolidation, echoing earlier pattern cycles and further emphasizing the recurring structural nature. These technical formations, combined with strong boundary touches and clear momentum surges, make the chart an excellent study in pattern recognition, volatility monitoring, and visual market structure analysis—all shared purely for observational insight, with no predictions or directional bias.
NSE:KEYFINSERVLong
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis
PCR Trading Strategies Common Option Strategies Options can be combined in multiple ways to design strategies for any market condition: Covered Call: Selling a call option against owned shares to earn premium income. Protective Put: Buying a put to hedge against potential downside on owned shares. Straddle: Buying both a call and put at the same strike and expiration to profit from volatility. Strangle: Similar to a straddle but with different strike prices. Iron Condor: A complex strategy selling two OTM options (one call, one put) and buying two further OTM options for limited risk and profit. Butterfly Spread: Combines multiple options to profit from minimal price movement. Each strategy balances risk, reward, and probability differently.
Education
by SkyTradingZone
Geopolitical Energy TradingThe Intersection of Power, Politics, and Global Markets Energy is the lifeblood of the global economy. Every modern industry—from manufacturing and transportation to technology and agriculture—relies on steady energy supplies. Yet, energy trading is not simply a matter of market forces like supply and demand. It is deeply shaped by geopolitics—the strategic and political relationships among nations. Geopolitical energy trading refers to the global buying, selling, and movement of energy resources such as oil, gas, coal, and renewables, influenced by political decisions, regional alliances, conflicts, and national interests. In the 21st century, as countries compete for energy security, control over resources, and technological dominance in renewables, the geopolitical stakes of energy trading have never been higher. 1. The Foundation of Geopolitical Energy Trading Energy trading is the mechanism through which countries and corporations buy and sell energy commodities across borders. Traditional markets have been dominated by fossil fuels—crude oil, natural gas, and coal. However, as the world moves toward cleaner energy, renewable energy credits, carbon permits, and electricity are becoming new instruments of trade. Geopolitics enters this equation because energy resources are unevenly distributed. For instance: The Middle East holds massive oil reserves. Russia dominates natural gas exports to Europe. The United States has become a major exporter of LNG (liquefied natural gas) and crude oil. China is the world’s largest energy importer and a leading investor in renewable technologies. This imbalance of resources creates dependencies, alliances, and rivalries that shape global energy flows. 2. Oil and Geopolitics: The Old Power Game Crude oil has long been the most geopolitically sensitive commodity. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), formed in 1960, was one of the first examples of nations using collective control over energy supply to influence global politics and prices. Oil’s strategic role became clear during events such as: The 1973 Oil Crisis, when Arab OPEC members imposed an embargo on Western nations supporting Israel, causing oil prices to quadruple. The Iran-Iraq War (1980s) and the Gulf War (1991), which disrupted oil production and transportation. Russia-Ukraine tensions, where energy pipelines became tools of political leverage over Europe. Oil prices often rise during conflicts in major producing regions, as traders fear supply disruptions. In response, consuming nations build strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) to guard against shortages. 3. Natural Gas: The New Energy Weapon Natural gas, once considered a regional fuel due to its transportation challenges, has become a global commodity thanks to LNG technology. Pipelines and LNG terminals now connect producers and consumers across continents. However, gas also holds strong geopolitical weight. For decades, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas shaped diplomatic relations. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it used gas supply cuts as a political tool, leading to an energy crisis in Europe. European countries had to rapidly diversify, importing LNG from the US, Qatar, and Australia. Similarly, China has built extensive energy partnerships through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), investing in pipelines from Central Asia and maritime terminals across Asia and Africa. These moves aim to secure long-term energy supplies while expanding China’s geopolitical influence. 4. The Rise of Energy Independence Geopolitical energy trading also involves efforts by countries to reduce dependency on foreign suppliers. This strategy is known as energy independence. For example: The United States experienced an energy revolution through shale oil and gas extraction (fracking), turning it from a major importer into an exporter. India is investing heavily in solar and green hydrogen to reduce crude import dependence. European nations are accelerating renewable adoption to minimize reliance on unstable regions like the Middle East and Russia. Energy independence reshapes global trade routes and weakens traditional energy powerhouses, redistributing influence among nations. 5. Renewables and the New Geopolitics As the world transitions toward clean energy, a new form of geopolitical competition is emerging. Instead of fighting over oil wells, countries now compete for lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, and solar panel technology—key inputs for renewable energy systems and electric vehicles. For instance: China dominates over 70% of the global solar panel and battery manufacturing market. Chile, Australia, and Bolivia hold vast lithium reserves essential for EV batteries. Africa is becoming a crucial player due to its mineral wealth. This creates a new type of “green geopolitics” where nations with renewable technologies and resources hold strategic leverage. Control over energy transition technologies—such as grid infrastructure, hydrogen systems, and battery supply chains—could define the next era of energy dominance. 6. Energy Trading Hubs and Routes Energy trading also depends on strategic chokepoints and hubs that influence transportation and pricing. Some of the world’s most vital routes include: The Strait of Hormuz (linking Persian Gulf oil to global markets) The Suez Canal (connecting Europe and Asia) The Malacca Strait (key route for China and East Asia) The Panama Canal (connecting Atlantic and Pacific trade flows) Disruptions in any of these routes—due to war, piracy, or blockades—can send shockwaves through global markets. Major trading hubs such as Singapore, Rotterdam, Houston, and Dubai facilitate physical energy trade and derivatives trading. They serve as price benchmarks and logistics centers for global traders. 7. Political Sanctions and Market Volatility Sanctions are one of the most powerful geopolitical tools in energy trading. When major producers like Iran, Venezuela, or Russia face international sanctions, their oil and gas exports are restricted, affecting global supply and prices. For example: Sanctions on Iran reduced its oil exports, tightening supply in the Asian market. Restrictions on Russian crude and gas after 2022 reshaped global flows, with Russian energy redirected to China and India at discounted rates. These sanctions also triggered a surge in “shadow fleets”—unregulated tankers trading sanctioned oil covertly. Geopolitical uncertainty creates volatility, which traders exploit through derivatives like futures and options, betting on price movements influenced by political developments. 8. Role of International Organizations Several institutions influence the global energy trade’s geopolitical balance: OPEC+, including Russia, coordinates oil output to stabilize prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) advises consumer nations on energy policy and emergency stockpiles. The World Trade Organization (WTO) and United Nations mediate energy-related disputes and environmental regulations. COP summits set climate targets that reshape long-term energy investment patterns. Thus, energy trading is not only an economic system but also a diplomatic and regulatory framework managed through multilateral negotiations. 9. Emerging Trends and the Road Ahead The next decade will redefine geopolitical energy trading through several key trends: Decarbonization Pressure: Countries are racing to meet net-zero targets, creating demand for carbon trading and green hydrogen. Regional Energy Blocs: Alliances like the BRICS and EU Energy Union are forming to coordinate energy policy and trade. Digital Energy Markets: Blockchain and AI-based trading platforms are making energy exchange more transparent and efficient. Energy Storage Wars: Control over battery production and recycling will become as critical as oil reserves once were. As energy systems become more diversified, geopolitics will revolve around technology, supply chains, and environmental diplomacy rather than just resource control. Conclusion Geopolitical energy trading is a complex dance between power, economics, and survival. Nations leverage energy as both a weapon and a tool of cooperation. While fossil fuels continue to dominate global trade, the rise of renewables, electric mobility, and digital infrastructure is redrawing the geopolitical map. In this evolving landscape, countries that balance energy security, diversification, and innovation will hold the upper hand. The transition from oil-based geopolitics to a multi-energy world will not end energy rivalries—but it will transform them into a new contest over clean technologies, supply chains, and strategic influence.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!Education
by TechnicalExpress
XAUUSD – PRIORITISE BUYING, TARGET 4040XAUUSD – PRIORITISE BUYING, TARGET 4040 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone 💬 My perspective on gold today remains to prioritise buying, as there hasn't been a clear deep decline. The price is currently consolidating in a narrow range, needing more time to build momentum before breaking out. I will wait to buy back at the OB area – where there is high liquidity, this is a region likely to see strong price reactions. The best scenario today: the price may sell lightly at FVG, then drop to OB to trigger the buy setup. 💹 2. Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective) 💜 Price Structure: Gold still maintains a short-term uptrend, the main trend hasn't been broken. 💎 Liquidity: Liquidity is concentrated below the 3940 area – potential buying OB. 💫 FVG: The 3975–3980 area is where a slight decline reaction may occur. ⚙️ Order Block (OB): 3938–3945 is a crucial support area, with potential for a strong price rebound from here. 📈 Main Target: 4040 – high liquidity area, coinciding with the large frame FVG. 🎯 3. Reference Trading Scenario 💢 Short SELL (scalping) Entry: 3980 ｜ SL: 3988 TP: 3972 – 3960 – 3940 💖 Main BUY (priority) Entry: 3940 ｜ SL: 3932 TP: 3952 – 3968 – 3990 – 4012 – 4035 ✨ 4. Important Notes 🔹 Observe price reactions at FVG and OB before taking action. 🔹 If the price exceeds 3988, the decline scenario is temporarily invalidated. 🔹 The main direction remains to buy following the Smart Money trend – only look for short sells with confirmation. 🌷 5. Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2 Gold is still on the right track of the Smart Money Flow, patiently wait for the price to reach a favourable area to act 💪 This is not investment advice, just a personal perspective based on the ICT method. If you find it useful, please 💛 like – 💬 comment – 🔔 follow LanaM2 to stay updated with the latest gold insights every day.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Gold Price Action: Healthy Pullback Within Broader UptrendGold is currently trading within a well-defined range on the daily timeframe, consolidating between 3,910 and 4,025 on a closing basis. Over the past several sessions, we've witnessed multiple attempts by buyers to reclaim the psychological 4,000 level, but sellers have consistently stepped in during intraday rallies, keeping the price action contained within this range. From my perspective, this consolidation is likely to persist for a while longer. Looking ahead, I anticipate the range could potentially extend between 3,850 and 4,200 over the coming weeks as market participants digest recent moves. It's worth noting that we should prepare for a worst-case scenario where price breaks below 3,850 on a closing basis, especially given that volatility tends to pick up during year end trading. That said, My view in this current phase as a healthy correction within the broader bull market. My bias remains tilted toward the buy side, and I'm expecting a potential resumption of the uptrend somewhere in the next 1-2 months, possibly around mid-January. The key here is patience with money management allowing this consolidation to play out while staying ready to capitalize on the next directional move. As always, proper risk management is crucial, particularly with year-end volatility on the horizon.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheGoldenCircle
Breakaway Gap Up Breakout — A Powerful StudyThis post analyzes breakaway gap up breakouts with multiple chart examples, illustrating how price leaps above well-tested trendline resistance without a retest, triggering strong upward momentum. Main Report What is a Breakaway Gap Up Breakout? A breakaway gap up breakout occurs when the price gaps above a resistance trendline that has been tested multiple times, but instead of interacting with the resistance, the price opens substantially higher, leaving a noticeable gap. This phenomenon signals strong demand and often marks the beginning of a sustained price rally Chart Observations - Left-side examples (Godfrey Phillips & JK Lakshmi Cement): Both charts show prices repeatedly hitting a descending trendline resistance. Unlike typical breakouts, the price did not touch or retest the resistance before breaking out; instead, it jumped above with a clear gap up. This is the classic signature of a breakaway gap. Following the breakout, continuation moves are observed, confirming the bullish momentum. - Right-side example (Power Grid Corp): Here, the price similarly clears a major resistance following several rejection points. The breakout is accompanied by a gap and swift follow-up buying, exemplifying the reliability of the breakaway gap pattern Key Traits of Breakaway Gap Ups -Occur after prolonged resistance tests. -Price gaps above resistance without retesting or shadowing. -Often lead to strong follow-through and trend continuation. -Frequently signal institutional participation or a major sentiment shift.
NSE:GODFRYPHLPLong
by Averoy_Apoorv_Analysis
1
Fundamental Analysis for Long-Term Investors1. Understanding the Concept of Fundamental Analysis At its core, fundamental analysis (FA) seeks to answer one key question: What is the true value of this company? By comparing the intrinsic value (calculated through analysis) with the current market price, investors can decide whether to buy, hold, or sell a stock. If Intrinsic Value > Market Price, the stock is undervalued — a potential buying opportunity. If Intrinsic Value < Market Price, the stock is overvalued — a signal to avoid or sell. This method assumes that, in the long run, the market will correct any mispricing and reflect the company’s actual worth. 2. Components of Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis can be divided into two main parts: a) Qualitative Analysis This part deals with the non-numerical aspects of a company, such as: Business Model – How the company earns revenue and its sustainability. Management Quality – Leadership capability and corporate governance. Competitive Advantage (Moat) – Unique strengths like brand value, patents, or cost advantages. Industry Outlook – Growth potential, regulatory environment, and barriers to entry. Economic Factors – Interest rates, inflation, fiscal policy, and global market trends. b) Quantitative Analysis This involves examining measurable data like financial statements, ratios, and cash flows to determine a company’s financial health. 3. Key Financial Statements in Fundamental Analysis A company’s financial statements form the backbone of fundamental analysis. Long-term investors should focus on three primary statements: a) Income Statement It shows the company’s profitability over a period, detailing revenue, expenses, and net income. Key metrics: Revenue Growth – Indicates whether the company’s sales are increasing consistently. Operating Margin – Reflects operational efficiency. Net Profit Margin – Shows how much profit remains after all expenses. b) Balance Sheet This statement provides a snapshot of the company’s financial position — assets, liabilities, and shareholders’ equity. Important metrics include: Debt-to-Equity Ratio (D/E) – Measures financial leverage; lower ratios imply less risk. Current Ratio – Indicates liquidity; a ratio above 1 shows good short-term financial health. Book Value per Share – Helps assess whether the stock is trading above or below its book value. c) Cash Flow Statement This shows the actual cash generated or used by the company. Focus areas: Operating Cash Flow (OCF) – Cash generated from core business operations. Free Cash Flow (FCF) – Cash left after capital expenditures; indicates ability to reinvest or reward shareholders. 4. Key Financial Ratios for Long-Term Investors Ratios simplify the evaluation of a company’s performance. Some of the most important ones are: a) Valuation Ratios Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio – Indicates how much investors are willing to pay for each rupee of earnings. A lower P/E could suggest undervaluation. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio – Compares market value to book value; useful for asset-heavy industries. Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio – Ideal for companies with negative earnings but growing sales. b) Profitability Ratios Return on Equity (ROE) – Measures how efficiently equity is used to generate profit. Return on Assets (ROA) – Shows how effectively the company uses its assets. Gross and Net Margins – Indicate profitability at different stages of the income statement. c) Liquidity and Solvency Ratios Current Ratio & Quick Ratio – Assess short-term liquidity. Interest Coverage Ratio – Measures ability to pay interest on debt. d) Growth Ratios Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth – Consistent EPS growth indicates strong performance. Revenue Growth Rate – Reflects expansion potential and demand. 5. Intrinsic Value and Valuation Methods The goal of fundamental analysis is to determine intrinsic value — an estimate of what a company is truly worth. Some popular valuation methods include: a) Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Model This method projects the company’s future cash flows and discounts them to present value using a required rate of return. It’s one of the most reliable methods for estimating intrinsic value, though it requires accurate assumptions. b) Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Used for dividend-paying companies; it values a stock based on future dividend payments discounted to the present. c) Relative Valuation Compares the company’s valuation ratios (like P/E or EV/EBITDA) with peers or industry averages to assess whether it’s under or overvalued. 6. Economic and Industry Analysis Fundamental analysis is not limited to company-level study. A top-down approach starts with understanding the broader economy and narrows down to sectors and companies. a) Economic Analysis Factors like GDP growth, interest rates, inflation, and fiscal policy impact company earnings and valuations. For example: Rising interest rates can hurt highly leveraged firms. Inflation affects input costs and consumer demand. b) Industry Analysis Identifying industries with favorable long-term prospects (such as renewable energy, technology, or healthcare) can improve investment success. Tools like Porter’s Five Forces help analyze industry competitiveness and profitability. 7. Qualitative Factors and Management Assessment A company’s management team plays a vital role in long-term success. Investors should assess: Leadership Track Record – Vision, integrity, and experience of the management team. Corporate Governance – Transparency, accountability, and alignment with shareholder interests. Innovation Capability – Ability to adapt to changing technology or consumer behavior. Brand Reputation – Strength of brand loyalty and market position. 8. The Margin of Safety Principle Coined by Benjamin Graham, the margin of safety is the difference between a stock’s intrinsic value and its market price. For example, if a stock’s intrinsic value is ₹500 and it’s trading at ₹350, the 30% gap is the margin of safety — a cushion against analytical errors or unforeseen events. This principle ensures that even if some assumptions go wrong, the investment remains relatively safe for the long term. 9. Long-Term Perspective and Patience Fundamental analysis rewards patience. Stock prices can remain undervalued or overvalued for extended periods due to market sentiment or short-term volatility. However, over time, prices tend to align with intrinsic value. Long-term investors must focus on business fundamentals, not market noise. Compounding works best when investments are held for years in fundamentally strong companies with consistent growth, low debt, and sustainable advantages. 10. Limitations of Fundamental Analysis While powerful, FA has its challenges: Time-Consuming – Requires deep research and analysis. Subjectivity – Valuation depends on assumptions that may not always be accurate. Market Irrationality – Prices can deviate from fundamentals for long periods. Changing Macroeconomics – Economic shocks can alter intrinsic value projections. Thus, blending FA with periodic reviews and awareness of market cycles enhances decision-making. Conclusion Fundamental analysis is the foundation of successful long-term investing. It equips investors with the knowledge to differentiate between temporary market noise and genuine value. By analyzing a company’s financial health, competitive position, management quality, and future prospects, investors can make informed decisions that compound wealth over time.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by TechnicalExpress
Commodity Trading: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas on MCX1. Overview of MCX and Commodity Trading The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was established in 2003 and operates under the regulatory framework of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). It provides a transparent and standardized platform for trading in commodity derivatives, allowing market participants to hedge against price volatility or take speculative positions based on their market outlook. Commodity trading on MCX includes bullion (gold, silver), energy (crude oil, natural gas), and base metals (copper, zinc, aluminum) among others. Prices are largely influenced by international benchmarks — for example, COMEX for gold and silver, and NYMEX for crude oil and natural gas — since commodities are globally traded and denominated in U.S. dollars. 2. Gold Trading on MCX a. Importance of Gold Gold is considered both a precious metal and a safe-haven asset. It acts as a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation, and economic uncertainty. In India, gold also holds immense cultural and investment value, making it one of the most traded commodities. b. MCX Gold Contracts MCX offers multiple gold contracts to cater to different categories of traders: Gold (1 kg) Gold Mini (100 grams) Gold Guinea (8 grams) Gold Petal (1 gram) Gold Petal (New Delhi) Each contract differs in lot size and margin requirements, allowing both retail and institutional traders to participate. The price quote is in Rupees per 10 grams, and the underlying is standard gold of 995 purity. c. Factors Influencing Gold Prices Global economic data (especially U.S. inflation, employment, and GDP) US Dollar movement – Gold has an inverse relationship with the USD. Interest rate changes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Geopolitical tensions or crises that boost safe-haven demand. Jewelry demand and central bank reserves. d. Trading Strategy Gold trading often combines technical analysis (using trendlines, moving averages, and RSI) with macro fundamentals (like Fed announcements). Traders also track the COMEX gold price and the rupee-dollar exchange rate for near-term movement cues on MCX. 3. Silver Trading on MCX a. Role of Silver Silver, often referred to as the “poor man’s gold,” has both precious and industrial uses. It’s widely used in electronics, solar panels, and medical instruments. This dual nature makes silver more volatile than gold. b. MCX Silver Contracts MCX offers several contracts: Silver (30 kg) Silver Mini (5 kg) Silver Micro (1 kg) Silver 1000 (30 kg, 999 purity) The price quote is in Rupees per kilogram. Silver contracts are physically settled, ensuring price integrity and alignment with physical market demand. c. Price Influencers Industrial demand in electronics and solar sectors. Gold price movement (since silver tends to follow gold trends). US Dollar and bond yields. Global supply-demand balances from major producers like Mexico and Peru. d. Trading Insights Silver’s high volatility appeals to short-term traders. It responds strongly to global macro news and industrial growth data. Many traders use gold-silver ratio analysis — when the ratio widens, it may suggest silver is undervalued relative to gold, and vice versa. 4. Crude Oil Trading on MCX a. Significance of Crude Oil Crude oil is the lifeblood of the global economy — influencing transport, manufacturing, and inflation. As one of the most liquid commodities, it offers dynamic trading opportunities. MCX crude oil prices track NYMEX WTI Crude, adjusted for the INR/USD rate. b. MCX Crude Oil Contracts MCX offers: Crude Oil (100 barrels) Crude Oil Mini (10 barrels) Prices are quoted in Rupees per barrel. Contract expiries are aligned with global oil futures. c. Key Factors Affecting Prices Global demand-supply balance led by OPEC decisions. U.S. crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Dollar strength and global growth outlook. Production levels in the U.S. shale industry. d. Trading Strategies Crude oil traders closely track weekly U.S. inventory reports, OPEC meetings, and economic indicators like global PMI data. Technical tools like Bollinger Bands and MACD help spot momentum reversals. Traders also hedge exposure against energy price swings using MCX crude futures. 5. Natural Gas Trading on MCX a. Overview Natural gas is a crucial energy source used for power generation, heating, and industrial processes. With the rise in clean energy demand, gas trading volumes have been rising sharply on MCX. b. Contract Specifications MCX offers Natural Gas (1250 mmBtu) contracts, quoted in Rupees per mmBtu (million British thermal units). Prices track NYMEX Natural Gas futures, with adjustments for INR movements. c. Price Influences Weather conditions – cold winters or hot summers drive higher consumption. Inventory levels in U.S. gas storage. Production trends from shale fields. Transition toward clean energy and LNG demand. Global geopolitical events affecting gas supply routes. d. Trading Approach Natural gas prices are highly seasonal and volatile. Traders use weather forecasts, EIA inventory data, and technical tools like support-resistance zones to time entries. Given its volatility, proper risk management and position sizing are essential. 6. Trading Mechanism and Settlement All commodities on MCX are traded electronically, ensuring transparency. Contracts are margined, meaning traders need only deposit a fraction of the total value (typically 5–10%) as margin. Settlement can be of two types: Cash settlement, based on final settlement price. Physical delivery, for bullion and select metals. Traders should be aware of expiry dates, daily price limits, and margin requirements to manage positions effectively. 7. Risk Management and Hedging Commodity derivatives are vital tools for hedgers (like jewelers or oil companies) to protect against adverse price movements. For instance: A jeweler may short gold futures to hedge inventory. An airline may buy crude oil futures to fix fuel costs. Speculators and arbitrageurs add liquidity, but they must apply strict stop losses, technical discipline, and volatility tracking to avoid large losses. 8. Conclusion Commodity trading on the MCX — particularly in Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, and Natural Gas — offers immense opportunities for profit and portfolio diversification. These commodities are deeply connected to global macroeconomic events, geopolitical developments, and currency movements. Success in this market requires a blend of technical analysis, fundamental understanding, and emotional discipline. For retail traders, starting with mini or micro contracts and focusing on risk control is key. As India’s participation in the global commodity market expands, MCX remains a vital gateway for investors to tap into the pulse of international trade and energy trends.
TVC:US10YEducation
by TechnicalExpress
TATACONSUM 1 Day Time Frame 📊 Current Price Snapshot Last traded around ₹ 1,155.30 on the NSE. Day’s trading range (approx) ~ ₹ 1,157.20 to ₹ 1,169.40. 52-week range: ~ ₹ 882.90 (low) to ~ ₹ 1,191.20 (high). 🔍 Important Support & Resistance Levels Resistance: ~ ₹ 1,170-1,190 zone (recent highs near 1,191). Immediate Support: ~ ₹ 1,140-1,150 (recent price clustering). Secondary Support: ~ ₹ 1,110-1,120 (if the first support fails). Major Structural Support: ~ ₹ 1,020-1,030 (in case of deeper correction).
NSE:TATACONSUMLong
by Knowledgehub
GOLD CONFIRMS SHORT-TERM DECLINE AFTER BREAKING TRENDLINEXAUUSD – GOLD CONFIRMS SHORT-TERM DECLINE AFTER BREAKING TRENDLINE 🪞 1. Overview 🌤️ In the Asian session this morning, gold broke the upward trendline even though the selling pressure wasn't particularly strong. However, this is the first signal indicating that the short-term trend is leaning towards the sellers. 💬 Currently, the 3996 level is a significant resistance, and the price might retest this area before continuing to decline. If the price surpasses the FVG at 4007, the trend might temporarily rebound in the short term. 💹 2. Technical Analysis (ICT Perspective) 🔸 Market structure: After breaking the trend, the structure temporarily shifts to short-term bearish. 🔸 Liquidity & FVG: Liquidity is drawn to the 3960–3940 area, while FVG 4007 is the first barrier. 🔸 Order Flow: Smart Money may lightly sweep up to the resistance area before pushing the price further down. 🎯 3. Reference Trading Scenarios 💔 MAIN SELL Entry: 3996 ｜ SL: 4004 TP: 3985 – 3972 – 3948 💢 SELL scalping Entry: 4007 ｜ SL: 4014 TP: 3998 – 3978 💖 REACTIVE BUY Entry: 3965 ｜ SL: 3957 TP: 3976 – 3988 – 3999 🌸 DEEP BUY Entry: 3941 ｜ SL: 3931 TP: 3955 – 3968 – 3988 – 4012 – 4066 🔍 4. Price Levels to Note ✨ 4007 → FVG resistance, short-term trend confirmation area ✨ 3996 → Retest area of the broken trendline ✨ 3965 – 3941 → Strong support area, likely to see reversal reactions 💬 5. Notes & Call for Interaction ⚠️ This is not an investment recommendation, but merely a personal technical perspective following the ICT method. Observe the price reaction around the trendline carefully before making a decision 💭 If you find this post helpful, please 💛 like – 💬 leave a comment – 🔔 follow LanaM2 to stay updated with daily gold insights and learn more about the Smart Money Concept 🌷✨
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
Gold Squeeze: Range Breakout Can Trigger $4,100+ MoveLooking at the current gold price action on the H1 chart, we're seeing a technical setup that's been developing over the past several sessions. The market has clearly established a well-defined range between approximately $3,900 and $4,040, with price respecting both the upper and lower boundaries quite consistently. price is holding above this ascending support while simultaneously testing the middle-to-upper zone of the range suggests building bullish momentum. We've seen multiple attempts to push lower get absorbed by buyers, creating a series of higher lows that demonstrate underlying strength. The grey horizontal zone around $4,020-$4,040 represents the key resistance level where sellers have previously shown up, but notice how price action is becoming increasingly compressed near this level a classic sign that a breakout may be imminent. From a probability standpoint, the combination of higher lows, sustained buying interest, and the current positioning near range highs favors an upside breakout. If gold manages to close convincingly above $4,040, we could see an accelerated move toward the $4,100+ zone fairly quickly, as there's limited technical resistance overhead once this range ceiling is breached. However, it's worth noting that range-bound markets can be deceptive, and false breakouts are always a possibility. The key will be watching for a decisive move with strong volume and follow-through. Until we get that confirmation, remaining patient with existing positions while maintaining appropriate risk management makes sense. The market appears coiled and ready to make its next significant move all signs point to higher prices, but as always, let the price action confirm the breakout before adding to positions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TheGoldenCircle