Bank Nifty Technical Analysis - 10th April 2024 Santu SahaBank Nifty Technical Analysis - 10th April 2024
## Market Overview
Bank Nifty is exhibiting potential volatility, with clear support and resistance levels identified for potential trading opportunities. Traders should closely monitor key levels for potential breakout or reversal patterns.
### Support Levels
**1. Support Levels:**
- **48,600:** Identified as the primary support level. If the market opens above this level, it could act as a support zone, indicating potential bullish sentiment.
- **48,443:** Designated as a secondary support level. A break below 48,600 could signal further downside movement towards this level.
### Resistance Levels
**1. Resistance Levels:**
- **48,900:** Identified as the first resistance level. If the market opens above 48,600, traders should watch for potential resistance near this level.
- **48,600:** If the market opens below this level, it could act as an immediate resistance level. Above 48,900, no significant resistance is observed due to the absence of historical levels.
### Technical Insights
#### Support Analysis
The 48,600 support level is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum in Bank Nifty. Traders should closely monitor this level for signs of potential reversal or continuation patterns. A break below 48,600 could lead to increased selling pressure and a potential downtrend towards the 48,443 support level.
#### Resistance Analysis
The 48,900 resistance level presents a barrier for further upside movement in Bank Nifty. Traders should watch for potential selling pressure near this level if the market opens above 48,600. Above 48,900, no significant resistance levels are observed, indicating potential for further upside movement.
### Trading Recommendation
Given the identified support and resistance levels, traders are advised to exercise caution and wait for clear confirmation before initiating new positions. Long positions could be considered above 48,900 with confirmation of sustained buying pressure, while short-term selling opportunities may arise below 48,600.
### Disclaimer: Risk Management
Trading involves inherent risks, and traders should implement proper risk management techniques to protect their capital and minimize potential losses.
Tradingview
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AUDJPY: Ending Diagonal Pattern; A Reversal on the Horizon.The advance from Mar 24, 2023 low of 86.06 subdivides into five waves. Notice that this price action contains overlapping waves that contract and form a wedge shape. That is the emblem of an ending diagonal which cues a swift and dramatic reversal on the horizon.
According to Elliott Wave guideline, the expected reversal is projected to reach at least the point where the diagonal initiation occurred, and potentially extend beyond. In this instance, the relevant level is identified by the conclusion of wave ((b)) at 86.06.
A salient attribute of ending diagonal is that all initial subwaves form either a single or multiple zigzag patterns. Waves (i), (iii), (iv) and (v) appear to be single zigzags, while wave (ii) is a double zigzag. Wave (v) often makes a throw-over (a brief break beyond the trendline connecting waves (i) and (iii) ). A throw-over suggests a diagonal has finished. Once price action pushes below the trendline connecting waves (ii) and (iv), we would have compelling proof that the diagonal has ended. The next event should be a swift move to at least 86.06 and probably beyond.
The wave count is not the sole basis for considering a short position. Beyond what is illustrated, there has been a divergence in prices and MACD since June 16, 2023, suggesting a diminishing upward momentum and indicating a weakening uptrend. Despite new highs in prices on November 16, 2023 and February 21, 2024, MACD did not follow suit. This bearish divergence frequently foreshadows a potential downturn in prices. (Insert MACD on your chart and draw a trendline connecting the highs)
Trading Plan
Entry: Sell above wave (iii) high.
Protective Stop: 100.95; the price level at which wave (v) would be longer than wave (iii),
which would render our diagonal scenario invalid. As a rule, within a
contracting ending diagonal, wave three is always shorter than wave
one, and wave five is always shorter than wave three.
Target: 86.06 and below
Risk-Reward: 1:5
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AUD/USD: A Third Wave "...Wonders to Behold..."Prices advanced in five waves from 0.6477 to 0.6667. This wave pattern is significant because impulse waves identify the direction of the larger trend. Thus, the five-wave advance in AUDUSD implies further buying to come that would push prices above 0.6667 as wave (iii).
The subsequent decline that is developing in three waves supports this analysis. Counter trend price action typically consists of three waves, so we expect another move up. Moreover, the three-wave decline travels to 0.6550 to retrace 61.8% of the previous impulsive advance. 61.8% is a common retracement for corrective waves especially when they occur as wave 2 of an impulse or wave B of a zigzag correction.
Also nearby is 0.6558, the price level at which wave c equaled wave a, which is a common Fibonacci relationship between wave C and A of zigzag correction.
Also adjacent is 0.6560, the end of the fourth wave of one lesser degree. As a guideline, corrections tend to end upon reaching the end of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree.
Besides, the correction is unfolding as a Zigzag A-B-C with a triangle characteristic in the b wave position as is common. Also, the correction neatly adheres to the parallel channel with wave c hugging the lower boundary of the channel.
These cluster of evidence suggests that prices are approaching an important juncture and a reversal to the upside is on the horizon. If so, then a break above 0.6629 would virtually indicate the correction ended and the next significant move is to the upside.
Trading Plan
Entry : Buy at market.
Protective Stop : 0.6477; in an impulse wave 2 can NEVER retrace 100% of wave 1.
Target : 307 pips i.e ((0.6667-0.6477) X 1.618)
In an impulse, the third wave commonly travels 1.618 times the length of the
first.
Risk-to-Reward : 1:3
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