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Part 1 Institutional vs. Technical What Is an Option? An option is a contract that gives you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specific price before a specific time. There are two types: • Call Options A call gives you the right to buy the asset at a predetermined price. You buy calls when you expect the market to go up. • Put Options A put gives you the right to sell the asset at a predetermined price. You buy puts when you expect the market to go down. The price at which the transaction occurs is called the strike price, and the last date the option is valid is the expiry.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by SkyTradingZone
Geopolitical Risk PremiumsUnderstanding the Concept and Its Market Implications In global financial markets, the notion of risk is central to how investors price assets, allocate capital, and manage portfolios. Among the different forms of risk, geopolitical risk has become increasingly significant in the 21st century, as globalization, interconnected economies, and rapid information flows amplify the impact of political events on financial markets. The concept of a geopolitical risk premium refers to the additional return investors demand for holding assets that are exposed to uncertainties arising from political, military, or social instability across countries or regions. At its core, the geopolitical risk premium represents compensation for potential negative outcomes stemming from events such as wars, terrorist attacks, political upheavals, trade disputes, sanctions, or abrupt policy changes. Unlike traditional financial risks, which are often quantifiable using historical data, geopolitical risks are inherently uncertain, discontinuous, and asymmetric, making the estimation of a risk premium both complex and subjective. The Mechanism of Geopolitical Risk Premiums Financial theory suggests that the expected return on an asset reflects not only the risk-free rate of return and market-wide risks but also idiosyncratic risks specific to that asset or region. Geopolitical events can introduce shocks that disrupt cash flows, trade, supply chains, or economic growth. As a result, investors demand a premium—essentially a cushion for potential losses—when investing in environments where such risks are prevalent. For example, consider an investor evaluating bonds issued by a country with a history of political instability. Even if the bonds offer a higher yield relative to a stable country, the investor must assess the likelihood of default, currency devaluation, or capital controls triggered by political events. The additional yield above the normal market rate compensating for these uncertainties constitutes the geopolitical risk premium. Factors Driving Geopolitical Risk Premiums Political Stability and Governance: Countries with weak institutions, frequent government changes, corruption, or opaque policymaking tend to have higher geopolitical risk premiums. Investors perceive that sudden policy shifts, regulatory changes, or mismanagement could adversely impact investments. Military Tensions and Conflicts: Wars, armed conflicts, or regional tensions create immediate and sometimes long-lasting disruptions to trade, energy supplies, and markets. For instance, heightened tensions in the Middle East often lead to spikes in oil prices, reflecting a premium priced by markets for geopolitical uncertainty. Economic Sanctions and Trade Disputes: Sanctions imposed by one country on another, or protracted trade disputes, can significantly affect corporate profits and currency values. Investors factor these risks into asset pricing, demanding higher returns for exposure to affected regions. Terrorism and Civil Unrest: Beyond formal military conflicts, terrorism, insurgencies, and civil unrest can damage infrastructure, reduce investor confidence, and impair economic growth. Markets respond by incorporating a risk premium for affected assets. Resource and Energy Dependence: Countries heavily reliant on commodities or energy exports may experience higher geopolitical risk premiums. Political instability or conflict in resource-rich regions can disrupt global supply chains, influencing asset prices far beyond local borders. Globalization and Contagion Effects: In an interconnected world, geopolitical events rarely remain isolated. An attack or policy change in one region can have ripple effects on global markets, magnifying the perceived risk and inflating the geopolitical risk premium. Measurement of Geopolitical Risk Premiums Unlike interest rate or credit risk premiums, which can be measured relatively directly, geopolitical risk premiums are derived indirectly through market pricing. Several approaches exist: Bond Yield Spreads: Sovereign bonds issued by politically unstable countries often carry higher yields relative to similar-maturity bonds from stable nations. The excess yield can be interpreted as a geopolitical risk premium. Equity Market Volatility: In periods of heightened geopolitical tension, equity markets typically experience increased volatility. Analysts may estimate the risk premium embedded in stock prices by comparing expected returns during calm periods versus times of uncertainty. Commodity Price Spikes: Commodities like oil, gold, and precious metals are highly sensitive to geopolitical events. Price surges in these markets often reflect a risk premium for potential supply disruptions due to conflicts, sanctions, or political unrest. Currency Fluctuations: Emerging market currencies are particularly susceptible to geopolitical shocks. A depreciating currency during periods of tension implies a higher required return for investors holding assets denominated in that currency. Geopolitical Risk Indices: Academic and commercial entities, such as the Baker, Bloom, and Davis Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), quantify geopolitical risk based on the frequency of news articles mentioning conflicts, terrorism, and international tensions. These indices can be correlated with asset returns to approximate the risk premium demanded by investors. Implications for Financial Markets Geopolitical risk premiums influence nearly every segment of financial markets, from equities and bonds to currencies and derivatives. The key implications include: Capital Allocation: Investors may shift capital toward safer assets or regions with lower geopolitical risk, creating a "flight to safety." This can lead to increased demand for government bonds of stable economies and a temporary decline in emerging market investment. Asset Pricing Volatility: Geopolitical events tend to induce sharp, sudden market reactions. Risk premiums fluctuate rapidly in response to news, making pricing more sensitive and increasing overall market volatility. Portfolio Diversification: To manage geopolitical risk, investors often diversify across countries, sectors, and asset classes. However, systemic geopolitical events, such as global conflicts or major trade wars, can reduce the effectiveness of traditional diversification strategies. Impact on Risk Models: Standard financial models often assume normal market conditions and historical correlations. Geopolitical events can invalidate these assumptions, resulting in underestimation of risk unless a geopolitical risk premium is explicitly incorporated. Policy and Central Bank Response: Central banks and governments may intervene in markets to stabilize financial conditions during periods of heightened geopolitical risk. Such interventions can temporarily alter risk premiums and market dynamics. Challenges in Managing Geopolitical Risk Premiums While investors recognize the importance of geopolitical risk, accurately quantifying and managing it is challenging: Unpredictability: Geopolitical events are often sudden and extreme. Unlike economic indicators, they cannot be forecasted reliably using historical trends alone. Complex Interconnections: Events in one region may affect multiple countries and markets, making the assessment of the total risk premium difficult. Behavioral Biases: Investor sentiment can exaggerate perceived risk, leading to temporary overshooting of premiums during crises. Hedging Limitations: Instruments like options, futures, or insurance policies may provide partial protection but rarely eliminate geopolitical risk completely. Examples of Geopolitical Risk Premiums in Action Middle East Conflicts and Oil Prices: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz or conflicts in oil-rich countries often trigger sudden spikes in crude prices, reflecting a risk premium for potential supply disruption. Brexit and European Markets: The uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the EU led to higher risk premiums for UK assets, including government bonds and equities, as investors demanded compensation for policy and market uncertainty. Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022 Onwards): Global markets priced in significant risk premiums due to sanctions, disrupted energy supplies, and economic fallout, affecting commodity prices, equities, and sovereign bonds worldwide. Conclusion The geopolitical risk premium is a crucial component of asset pricing in a globally connected economy. It represents the compensation investors require for bearing risks stemming from political instability, military conflicts, terrorism, trade disputes, and policy uncertainty. While difficult to quantify precisely, geopolitical risk premiums influence capital flows, asset prices, and portfolio strategies across markets. Understanding and monitoring these premiums is vital for investors seeking to navigate the uncertainties of global finance, manage risk exposure, and optimize returns in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. By acknowledging both the magnitude and unpredictability of geopolitical events, financial professionals can make more informed decisions, incorporate appropriate risk-adjusted pricing, and better anticipate market reactions in times of political turmoil. In essence, geopolitical risk premiums are not just an abstract concept—they are a real, measurable, and actionable factor shaping the modern financial ecosystem.
NSE:TATASTEELEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Deglobalization & Supply Chain Shifts: A Comprehensive AnalysisUnderstanding Deglobalization Deglobalization refers to the reduction in global interdependence in trade, finance, and production. Unlike globalization, which emphasizes interconnectedness and the free flow of goods, services, and capital, deglobalization involves a partial reversal of these processes. It does not imply complete isolation but reflects regionalization, reshoring, and diversification of supply chains to reduce vulnerability to global shocks. Key drivers of deglobalization include: Geopolitical Tensions: Conflicts between major powers, such as the U.S.-China rivalry, have introduced tariffs, sanctions, and restrictions on technology and trade. Companies are forced to rethink reliance on politically sensitive regions. For instance, semiconductor supply chains have seen significant reshaping due to export restrictions on advanced chips. Pandemic Disruptions: The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in global supply chains. Lockdowns, port closures, and labor shortages highlighted the risks of concentrated production in a few regions. Companies realized that efficiency-focused supply chains could be fragile, leading to a shift toward resilience and risk mitigation. Rising Protectionism: Nationalist and protectionist policies, including tariffs and local content requirements, have incentivized companies to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers. Governments are increasingly promoting self-sufficiency in critical sectors such as energy, defense, and healthcare. Technological Shifts: Automation, AI, and advanced manufacturing techniques reduce the cost advantage of low-wage countries. Companies can now consider reshoring production closer to end markets without sacrificing efficiency. Implications for Global Supply Chains Deglobalization has triggered major shifts in supply chain strategies, affecting sourcing, manufacturing, logistics, and risk management. These shifts can be categorized as follows: 1. Reshoring and Nearshoring Reshoring involves bringing production back to the home country, while nearshoring shifts production to nearby countries within the same region. Companies are increasingly moving away from single-source suppliers in distant regions to reduce geopolitical and logistical risks. Example: U.S. companies are increasingly sourcing electronics from Mexico or Southeast Asia instead of China. Benefits include reduced transportation costs, shorter lead times, and better compliance with local regulations. Challenges include higher labor costs and potential skill gaps in domestic manufacturing. 2. Diversification of Suppliers Companies are no longer relying on a single country or supplier for critical components. Multi-sourcing strategies reduce the risk of disruption due to political conflicts, natural disasters, or pandemics. Example: Automotive and electronics companies are diversifying chip suppliers across Taiwan, South Korea, the U.S., and Europe. Diversification requires advanced supply chain analytics, forecasting, and relationship management to maintain efficiency. 3. Regional Supply Chains There is a growing focus on regionalization, where companies develop supply chains within a geographic cluster. Regional trade agreements, such as the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) and RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in Asia), encourage localized production. Regional supply chains reduce exposure to long-distance shipping risks, tariffs, and currency fluctuations. They also promote sustainability by reducing carbon emissions associated with global logistics. 4. Increased Inventory and Buffer Stocks Just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing, a hallmark of globalization, is being reconsidered. Companies are maintaining higher inventories and safety stocks to withstand supply disruptions. This shift increases costs but ensures supply chain resilience. Key industries adopting this approach include pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical machinery. 5. Investment in Digital Supply Chains Digitalization plays a central role in adapting to deglobalization. Advanced data analytics, AI, IoT, and blockchain enable companies to monitor global supply chain risks in real-time. Example: Predictive analytics help firms anticipate disruptions, adjust production schedules, and optimize logistics. Blockchain enhances traceability, crucial for compliance with new local content laws and sustainability regulations. Sectoral Impacts Deglobalization affects industries differently: Technology and Electronics: Heavily dependent on global supply chains, these sectors are relocating production to secure chip manufacturing and critical components. The U.S. CHIPS Act incentivizes domestic semiconductor production. Automotive Industry: Global auto manufacturing has been disrupted by semiconductor shortages. Companies are regionalizing production and investing in EV battery manufacturing closer to end markets. Pharmaceuticals: COVID-19 highlighted dependence on China and India for APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients). Many countries are now investing in local production to ensure health security. Consumer Goods: Companies are diversifying suppliers to avoid disruptions in goods such as clothing, electronics, and household products. Economic and Strategic Implications Deglobalization has wide-ranging consequences: Higher Production Costs: Shifting production closer to home or diversifying suppliers increases labor, logistics, and compliance costs. This could result in higher consumer prices. Supply Chain Resilience: Companies are willing to trade efficiency for reliability. Resilient supply chains are less prone to disruption from geopolitical or environmental events. Shift in Trade Patterns: Emerging markets that previously benefited from globalization may face slower growth as global production becomes more regionalized. Innovation and Competitiveness: Nearshoring and reshoring may stimulate innovation in domestic manufacturing, robotics, and automation, boosting long-term competitiveness. Policy and Regulatory Focus: Governments are actively shaping industrial policies to ensure national security and self-reliance. Strategic sectors such as energy, defense, and healthcare will see sustained support. Challenges and Risks While deglobalization promotes resilience, it is not without challenges: Cost Inflation: Regionalization and reshoring are expensive, potentially squeezing profit margins. Complex Supply Management: Managing multiple suppliers across regions increases operational complexity. Trade Tensions: Fragmentation of global trade can lead to inefficiencies and reduced economies of scale. Environmental Concerns: While regionalization reduces shipping emissions, increased local production may increase energy consumption if production relies on carbon-intensive processes. Future Outlook The trajectory of deglobalization suggests a hybrid model for global supply chains: Selective Globalization: Companies will retain global networks for certain low-cost, non-critical products while regionalizing critical components. Resilience as Priority: Supply chain decisions will prioritize risk mitigation over cost efficiency. Technological Integration: AI, automation, and digital twins will transform supply chain management, enabling agility and rapid response to disruptions. Policy-Driven Strategies: Trade policies, subsidies, and geopolitical pressures will continue to shape supply chain structures. In essence, the future of global supply chains will be less about maximizing cost efficiency and more about building robustness and adaptability. Companies that successfully balance efficiency with resilience will gain a competitive edge in an increasingly unpredictable global landscape. Conclusion Deglobalization represents a paradigm shift in the global economy, driven by geopolitical risks, pandemics, protectionism, and technological evolution. The shift is fundamentally reshaping supply chains through reshoring, nearshoring, diversification, and digitalization. While these changes entail higher costs and operational complexities, they also provide an opportunity to build resilient, flexible, and strategically secure supply chains. The companies and nations that adapt effectively to these changes will navigate the challenges of the post-globalization era while ensuring long-term sustainability and competitiveness.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Lotus Chocolate – Trendline Breakout Wait for retestLotus Chocolate has been in a sustained downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows while respecting a descending trendline. Recently, price witnessed a sharp bounce from the 0 Fibonacci zone (~₹553), indicating strong demand at lower levels. The latest move shows a breakout attempt above the falling trendline and a push toward the 0.382 Fibonacci level (~₹936). This signals a possible trend reversal or at least a short-term bullish retracement within the broader structure. Key Levels to Watch: Support: ₹790 – ₹820 zone (near 0.236 Fib and previous structure) Immediate Resistance: ₹936 (0.382 Fib) Next Targets: ₹1,055 (0.5 Fib), ₹1,173 (0.618 Fib), ₹1,341 (0.786 Fib) Important: Do NOT enter directly after the breakout candle. The move is sharp and prone to pullback. Wait for a proper retest of the broken trendline or the ₹790–₹820 zone with bullish confirmation before considering entry. This setup becomes stronger if price holds above the retest zone with rising volume. Failure to hold may drag price back toward lower support. Trade safe. Let the market prove itself before you commit capital.
BSE:LOTUSCHOLong
by ChitTI11
Intraday Short Setup | Jan 16th 2026 | Valid Until Daily ClosePrice when pushed into a potential intraday Pivot supply zone (red box) where sellers may step in. This trade is based on the expectation of a rejection from this area. Entry: Red box - a short entry zone aligned with overhead supply Stop Loss: Above the red zone (invalidates the setup) Target: Green box - area to consider partial/full exit based on momentum Risk-reward is favorable with a tight invalidation and clean downside target Price may stall or reverse near the red box, creating short opportunity Note: This is an intraday trade idea that expires at 00:00 UTC (Daily Candle Close). Re-evaluate the setup if price remains indecisive near the entry zone close to that time.
Short
by pivottrader88
Weekly Long Setup | Jan 20th 2026 | Valid Until Weekly ClosePrice has retraced to a strong pivot zone (marked by the red box). Structure remains bearish however, with potential reversal for continuation after pullback. The green box represents a high-probability long opportunity with tight risk control. Watch for price reaction within the red zone. Entry only if confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing, strong wick rejections) appears. The setup expires at end of the weekly candle close.
Long
by pivottrader88
gold spot or mcx update after fresh breakoutgold spot eyes on 5200$ if mkt close abv than next up side move 5400-5800$ near terms where support 5230 if stay blow than down side expect 5210--5190--5170$ over all looks boom but profit booking expect . mcx gold April looks abv 173000 up side move 177-185000+++ where support 169000 if stay bleow than down side correction expect til 165--161000+++ no if and but. yes a;; eyes on support lvl if mkt hold thna no doubt to up side buy on dip good way
FX:XAUUSD
by kailashcfa33
Weekly Long Setup | Jan 20th 2026 | Valid Until Weekly ClosePrice might retrace to a strong pivot zone (marked by the red box). Structure remains bullish on HTF with potential for continuation after pullback. The green box represents a high-probability long opportunity with tight risk control. Watch for price reaction within the red zone. Entry only if confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing, strong wick rejections) appears. The setup expires at end of the weekly candle close.
Long
by pivottrader88
2
Zoom (ZM) Base Formation Meets ResistanceAfter a long period of weakness, ZM currently looks like a market in base-building mode, slowly working its way higher. The structure is constructive, as price is forming higher lows, creating a rising foundation. At the same time, price is now moving into a clear resistance zone around ~95–97, which is where progress or rejection will be decided. Silent Flow identifies a new long signal, but the signal appears in a sensitive location, as it emerges directly below resistance. A realistic bullish scenario would be: resistance test → controlled pullback (retest) → buyers step back in → another attempt higher. A warning sign would be a pullback that becomes too aggressive and breaks the current upward structure (the most recent higher lows) in that case, the move was more of a push than a stable build. The uncertainty is not about “bullish vs. bearish,” but about how the market reacts at this level: rejection with structure damage versus rejection with a clean retest.
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by chartnes
Interest Rates and Central Bank PolicyIntroduction Interest rates are a cornerstone of modern economies, influencing borrowing, spending, saving, and investment behavior across households, businesses, and governments. They represent the cost of borrowing money or the return for lending it. Central banks—such as the Federal Reserve in the United States, the Reserve Bank of India, or the European Central Bank—play a critical role in determining the level of interest rates through monetary policy. By influencing interest rates, central banks aim to achieve macroeconomic objectives, including price stability, full employment, and sustainable economic growth. Understanding how interest rates work and how central bank policies shape them is fundamental for investors, businesses, and policymakers alike. Understanding Interest Rates 1. Types of Interest Rates Interest rates can take several forms, each with specific functions in the economy: Policy or Benchmark Rates: These are set by central banks and serve as a reference for other interest rates in the economy. For example, the federal funds rate in the U.S. or the repo rate in India. Market Rates: These are determined by supply and demand in financial markets. Examples include interbank lending rates and bond yields. Consumer Rates: These affect individuals directly, including mortgage rates, personal loans, and credit card interest rates. Corporate Rates: Businesses borrow at rates that reflect risk, collateral, and creditworthiness, influenced by policy and market rates. 2. Nominal vs Real Interest Rates Nominal Interest Rate: The stated rate without adjusting for inflation. Real Interest Rate: Nominal rate minus inflation. Real rates measure the true cost of borrowing or the real return on savings and investment. 3. Influence on Economic Behavior Interest rates affect the economy in multiple ways: Consumption: Lower interest rates reduce the cost of loans, encouraging consumers to borrow and spend. Higher rates do the opposite. Investment: Businesses are more likely to invest in capital projects when borrowing costs are low. High rates may delay expansion. Saving: Higher interest rates incentivize saving, while lower rates encourage spending. Currency Value: Higher domestic interest rates can attract foreign capital, strengthening the currency. Conversely, lower rates may weaken the currency. Central Bank Policy Central banks are responsible for managing a country’s monetary system. Their primary tools and objectives are designed to maintain economic stability, control inflation, and support growth. 1. Objectives of Central Bank Policy Price Stability: Controlling inflation is the primary goal of most central banks. Moderate and predictable inflation supports economic confidence. Economic Growth and Employment: By adjusting interest rates and money supply, central banks aim to promote sustainable growth and reduce unemployment. Financial Stability: Preventing financial crises through regulation, liquidity provision, and supervision of banks and financial institutions. Currency Stability: Maintaining the value of the domestic currency in international markets, often tied to trade and capital flows. 2. Tools of Monetary Policy Central banks use a combination of conventional and unconventional tools: Policy Rates: Repo Rate (Repurchase Rate): The rate at which commercial banks borrow short-term funds from the central bank. Lower repo rates encourage lending and spending; higher rates curb inflation. Reverse Repo Rate: The rate at which banks park excess funds with the central bank. Used to control liquidity. Discount Rate / Federal Funds Rate: Key U.S. benchmark, influencing borrowing costs across the economy. Open Market Operations (OMO): Central banks buy or sell government securities to influence the money supply. Buying securities injects liquidity, lowering interest rates; selling withdraws liquidity, raising rates. Reserve Requirements: The minimum fraction of deposits that banks must keep as reserves. Lowering reserve requirements increases lending capacity; raising them restricts credit. Forward Guidance: Communicating future monetary policy intentions to influence expectations and market behavior. Quantitative Easing (QE): Unconventional policy used during crises, where central banks purchase large amounts of government or corporate bonds to lower long-term interest rates and stimulate borrowing. Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism The transmission of central bank policy through the economy involves several channels: Bank Lending Channel: Lower policy rates reduce banks’ funding costs, encouraging more loans to businesses and households. Asset Price Channel: Lower rates raise stock and bond prices, boosting wealth and consumption. Exchange Rate Channel: Lower rates may depreciate the currency, increasing exports by making domestic goods cheaper internationally. Expectations Channel: Central bank guidance shapes public and business expectations about future inflation, spending, and investment. Types of Monetary Policy Central banks implement monetary policy based on prevailing economic conditions: Expansionary Policy: Lowering interest rates or increasing money supply to stimulate growth, typically used during recessions or slowdowns. Contractionary Policy: Raising interest rates or reducing liquidity to control inflation or an overheating economy. For example, during a recession, a central bank may cut policy rates and purchase government securities to encourage borrowing and spending. Conversely, in high inflation periods, tightening policy through higher rates reduces consumption and cooling inflation pressures. Global Implications Interest rates are not only domestic policy tools; they have international consequences: Capital Flows: Higher domestic rates attract foreign investment, impacting exchange rates and balance of payments. Global Borrowing Costs: Countries with debt denominated in foreign currencies are affected by rate changes in major economies like the U.S. Commodity Prices: Changes in rates affect commodity prices indirectly by altering demand and currency values. Financial Markets: Equity and bond markets react sensitively to central bank announcements, often leading to volatility around policy decisions. Challenges and Considerations Central banks face numerous challenges in setting interest rates: Inflation vs Growth Trade-Off: Aggressive rate hikes control inflation but may slow growth; low rates boost growth but risk higher inflation. Lagged Effects: Monetary policy effects take time to permeate the economy, sometimes 6–18 months. Global Integration: International capital flows and foreign monetary policies constrain domestic policy autonomy. Expectations Management: Public confidence in central bank credibility is crucial. Poor communication can lead to volatility in markets and consumer behavior. Recent Trends In the past decade, central banks have faced low-interest-rate environments post-global financial crises, requiring unconventional measures like QE and forward guidance. Inflation surges following supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have prompted rapid interest rate adjustments, demonstrating the dynamic interplay between policy and economic realities. Conclusion Interest rates and central bank policies are vital levers for guiding economic activity. They affect borrowing, spending, saving, investment, and currency values, influencing both domestic and global economic landscapes. By using tools like policy rates, open market operations, and unconventional interventions, central banks seek to balance growth, employment, and inflation. Understanding these mechanisms helps investors, businesses, and individuals make informed decisions, as interest rates ultimately shape the rhythm of economic life. Effective central bank policy requires not only technical skill but also careful attention to timing, communication, and the broader global context. With economies increasingly interconnected, the ripple effects of interest rate decisions extend far beyond national borders, making central bank actions a focal point for both policymakers and markets worldwide.
NSE:BANKNIFTYEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
GBPUSD-Retracement Set up.(Not Trend Reversal) GBPUSD is currently moving bullish, mainly driven by **USD weakness** rather than strong GBP strength. This move is considered a **retracement**, not a full bearish structure change. 🔹 **Bias:** ➡️ Overall move is corrective ➡️ Bearish continuation only after retracement zones are reached ### 🎯 Key Retracement Zones **First Retrace Target:** 📍 **1.37240** **Deep Retrace Zone:** 📍 **1.35726** ### 🧠 Trade Idea Logic * As long as price stays above retracement zones, market remains **bullish due to USD weakness**. * Expecting price to **pull back (retrace)** into one of the zones. * No bearish confirmation until these zones are tapped. * Shorts only valid **after reaction or rejection** from retrace zones. ### ⚠️ Important Notes * Current bullish price action = **corrective move only** * Not a trend reversal unless structure breaks * Wait for **price action confirmation** at retrace zones (engulfing / rejection / lower TF structure) ### 📌 Summary ✔️ Bullish move = USD weakness ✔️ Targets = 1.37240 and 1.35726 ✔️ Looking for retracement, not crash ✔️ Shorts only after reaction at zones
Long
by Jone9
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 28/01/2026 1. Momentum Daily (D1) – D1 momentum is still overlapping, indicating that the broader bullish move may continue. – The prolonged overbought condition reflects excessive market enthusiasm, which also serves as a warning of increasing risk. H4 – H4 momentum is approaching the overbought zone. → This suggests that a corrective move on H4 is likely to occur within the next few hours. H1 – H1 momentum is currently overbought. → This indicates that short-term bullish momentum is weakening, and a corrective phase on H1 is likely before the trend resumes. 2. Elliott Wave Structure Daily Wave Structure (D1) – On the daily timeframe, we continue to see an extension of the blue Wave 5. – This is understandable given the current global environment, where geopolitical and economic risks remain elevated, pushing capital flows into safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. – However, this strong shift toward safe assets also highlights growing systemic risks within global economies. – As mentioned last Sunday, historically, recent FOMC cycles have typically occurred during periods of consolidation or correction, followed by the start of a long-term bullish trend after the announcement. – The key difference this time is that price has already rallied strongly ahead of FOMC. Therefore, today’s FOMC release may trigger significant volatility. H4 Wave Structure – As discussed in yesterday’s plan, the recent corrective move did not differ materially in size, duration, or target compared to previous corrective waves within the yellow Wave 3 structure. → This strongly suggests that the pullback was merely a sub-wave within yellow Wave 3, keeping the bullish structure intact. H1 Wave Structure – On H1, a black 5-wave structure appears to be forming inside yellow Wave 3. – As previously stated, during an extended wave, assigning precise labels while price is still unfolding is extremely difficult and often impractical, especially under extreme market sentiment. – However, one point remains very clear: Looking back at previous overbought RSI conditions (highlighted on the chart), each corrective phase was followed by a new price high. – Currently, RSI is once again deeply overbought, leading me to expect another upside push to form a new high after the correction, at least until a clear RSI divergence appears at the top. 3. Key Price Zones – With H4 and H1 momentum preparing to turn bearish, we focus on lower support zones to look for buy opportunities in line with the dominant trend. Potential support zones – 5192 – 5101 Upper resistance – On the upside, multiple Fibonacci projections from different wave structures converge around 5323. → This zone represents a strong resistance area. 4. Trading Plan Buy setup zone 1 – Entry: 5193 – 5191 – Stop Loss: 5172 – TP1: 5249 – TP2: 5323 Buy setup zone 2 – Entry: 5102 – 5100 – Stop Loss: 4982 – TP1: 5192 – TP2: 5323
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
TATAELXSI 1 Week View 📊 Current context The stock price is in the range of around ₹5,350–₹5,450 (as of last close). 📈 1‑Week Technical Levels These are typical support/resistance values used by short‑term traders (daily/weekly pivots & swing levels): 🧭 Weekly Support 1. ~₹5,270–₹5,280 — first major weekly support zone. 2. ~₹5,106–₹5,110 — secondary support before lower breakdown risk. 3. ~₹4,700 area — strong downside zone (52‑week low area). 🚧 Weekly Resistance 1. ~₹5,618–₹5,620 — initial weekly resistance level. 2. ~₹5,950–₹6,000 — higher breakout zone for bullish momentum. 3. Above ₹6,300 — strong breakout continuation level. These weekly levels are useful for planning trades across the next 5–7 sessions — gains above initial resistance suggest near‑term strength, while breaks below support indicate further weakness. 🔁 Daily Pivot Levels (for intraday / short swing) Pivot Point: ~₹5,400–₹5,407 Support†: ~₹5,355 → ₹5,295 → ₹5,250 Resistance†: ~₹5,460 → ₹5,505 → ₹5,565 (higher targets) These pivot levels help define day‑to‑day trading range within the week.
NSE:TATAELXSILong
by TechnicalExpress
 LUPIN 1 Day View 📊 Current Market Snapshot (Latest Available Close) Price: ~₹2,137.20 (NSE) — price range on the most recent session was ₹2,130.30–₹2,178.00. Previous Close: ₹2,163.20. 52‑week range: ₹1,795.20 low ~ ₹2,226.30 high. 📈 Daily Pivot & Key Levels (Short‑Term Technical) 🔁 Pivot (Reference Level) Pivot point: ~₹2,166–₹2,160 zone — this is the central level that often defines bull/bear bias intraday. 🔼 Resistance (Upside Levels) R1: ~₹2,185–₹2,189 — immediate upside barrier. R2: ~₹2,206–₹2,208 — next medium resistance. R3: ~₹2,227–₹2,238 — stronger resistance zone (intraday to short‑term). 🔽 Support (Downside Levels) S1: ~₹2,143–₹2,119 — initial support from recent pivot structures. S2: ~₹2,124–₹2,100 — mid downside support. S3: ~₹2,102–₹2,071 — deeper support if bearish momentum accelerates. 🧠 How to Use These Levels Today Bullish view: Stay above pivot (~₹2,160–₹2,166) for upside bias toward R1→R2. Neutral/Range: Between S1 and R1 suggests consolidation — trade bounces within this zone. Bearish breakdown: A close below S2/S3 can indicate deeper correction — watch S2 as key risk cutoff. (These are not buy/sell recommendations, just short‑term technical reference points.)
NSE:LUPINLong
by TechnicalExpress
XAUUSD (H1) – Liam Plan (Jan 27) Bullish TrendQuick summary Gold is still trending higher inside a clean rising channel, but price is now approaching a weak high / liquidity pocket where stop-runs are likely. Macro backdrop adds fuel for volatility: reports suggest the US is pressuring Ukraine toward territorial concessions as part of peace talks — this kind of uncertainty often keeps safe-haven demand supported, but it can also create fast spikes + fake breaks. ➡️ Today’s rule: follow the uptrend, but only buy at liquidity test points. No chasing highs. 1) Macro context (why spikes are likely) If markets start pricing a forced compromise in the Ukraine conflict: risk sentiment can swing quickly, headlines can trigger instant pumps, then sharp retraces. ✅ Safe approach: let price hit your zones first, then trade the reaction — not the headline. 2) Technical view (H1 – based on your chart) Price is respecting an ascending channel and building liquidity around key levels. Key levels (from the chart): ✅ Support / buy liquidity zone: 4,995 – 5,000 ✅ Flip / reaction zone: 5,047 ✅ Upper resistance / supply: 5,142 ✅ Weak High / liquidity target: 5,192.6 ✅ Extension target (1.618): 5,240.8 Bias stays bullish while inside the channel, but near 5,192–5,240 we should expect liquidity sweep → pullback behavior. 3) Trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level) A) BUY scenarios (priority – trend continuation) A1. BUY the pullback into the flip zone (cleanest R:R) ✅ Buy: 5,045 – 5,050 (around 5,047) Condition: hold + bullish reaction (HL / rejection / MSS on M15) SL (guide): below 5,030 (or below the reaction low) TP1: 5,085 – 5,100 TP2: 5,142 TP3: 5,192.6 Logic: This is the best “trend-following” entry — buy support, sell into liquidity above. A2. BUY deep liquidity sweep (only if volatility hits) ✅ Buy: 4,995 – 5,000 Condition: sweep + strong reclaim (fast rejection / displacement up) SL: below 4,980 TP: 5,047 → 5,142 Logic: This is the strongest liquidity test zone on your chart — ideal for a bounce if price flushes. B) SELL scenarios (secondary – reaction scalps only) B1. SELL the weak high sweep (tactical scalp) ✅ If price runs 5,192.6 and shows rejection: Sell: 5,190 – 5,200 SL: above the sweep high TP: 5,142 → 5,085 Logic: Weak highs often get swept first. Great for quick mean reversion back into the channel. B2. SELL extension (highest-risk, but best location) ✅ Sell zone: 5,235 – 5,245 (around 5,240.8) Only with clear weakness on M15–H1 TP: 5,192 → 5,142 Logic: 1.618 extension is a common exhaustion pocket — don’t short early, short the reaction. 4) Key notes Don’t trade mid-range between 5,085–5,142 unless you’re scalping with tight rules. Expect false breakouts near 5,192 and 5,240 during headlines. Best execution today = buy support, take profits into liquidity. Question: Are you buying the 5,047 pullback, or waiting for the 5,192 sweep to sell the reaction? — Liam
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx
2
XAUUSD (Gold) 45-Minute Chart – Strong Bullish Continuation AbovTrend: Gold is in a clear bullish trend. Price has made higher highs and higher lows, accelerating strongly on Jan 28 with a breakout and momentum expansion. Market Structure: Earlier consolidation zones (value areas) were broken to the upside, followed by acceptance above prior ranges. The most recent move shows impulsive buying, suggesting institutional participation rather than a weak breakout. Volume Profile (VCP): Previous High Volume Nodes (HVN) around 5,080–5,120 acted as resistance, now flipped into support. Current price is trading above the Point of Control (POC), which confirms bullish control. Low volume above indicates price discovery, meaning less resistance overhead. Key Levels: Resistance: 5,270–5,300 (current highs / psychological zone) Immediate Support: 5,120–5,100 (previous value area high) Deeper Support: 5,020–4,980 (range low & demand zone) Bias: Bullish while above 5,100 Pullbacks into previous value areas are likely to attract buyers. Trading Insight: Best opportunities are buy-the-dip setups rather than chasing highs. A rejection with high volume below 5,100 would be the first warning sign of a deeper correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DrForexPhd
GOLD (XAUUSD) Retracement Buy Zones-Long Bias Only**Description:** Gold is currently in a bullish structure and I am waiting for a **healthy retracement into my marked demand zones**. My plan is simple: **ONLY look for BUY opportunities** from these zones and ignore sells. Price previously respected this area as support and also aligns with structure + retracement levels. If price taps into the zone and shows bullish confirmation (rejection candle / structure shift), I will look for long entries. **Trade Plan:** ✅ Direction: BUY only 📍 Entry: Inside marked retracement zone 🎯 Target 1: Previous high 🎯 Target 2: Next resistance / liquidity 🛑 Stop Loss: Below the zone (structure invalidation) **Reason for Bias:** • Overall trend = bullish • Zone = previous demand area • Waiting for retracement, not chasing price • Risk-reward favorable from this area ⚠️ No trade if price breaks and closes below the zone. I will wait patiently for price to come to me. **Disclaimer:** This is my personal analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk and wait for confirmation before entering. #XAUUSD #Gold #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #Forex #TradingView #BuyZone #SmartMoney #TrendTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jone9
2