Trend Analysis
Part 11 Trading Master Class With Experts Time Decay (Theta)
Theta represents how much value option will lose per day even if price doesn’t move.
Sellers LOVE Theta
Buyers FEAR Theta
Near expiry:
A ₹200 premium may fall to ₹20 even with little change in spot.
This is how sellers make money consistently.
NIFTY – Short-term & Long-term Outlook from Demand ZoneNifty has shown a strong rejection from the 24,900–24,500 historical demand zone.
On the 4H chart:
Long lower wick near 24,900 indicates aggressive buyer participation.
RSI exhaustion and reversal suggests selling pressure has weakened.
Trendline and EMAs remain intact.
Short-term View:
Above 24,900 → upside possible towards 25,600 – 25,900
Below 24,900 (sustained) → downside towards 24,500
Long-term View:
24,500 is the major invalidation level.
Above 24,700–24,900, bias remains bullish on dips.
Upside targets: 26,000 – 26,400+
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered advisor. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please do your own research before taking any trades.
Part 12 Trading Master Class With Experts Why Traders Use Options
Options allow traders to benefit from multiple market views:
Directional trading (up or down)
Non-directional trading (markets stay range-bound)
Volatility trading (IV expansion/contraction)
Hedging (protect portfolios)
Income generation (selling options)
This flexibility makes options superior to normal equity trading.
Part 5 Advance Trading Knowledge Introduction to Option Trading
Option trading is a sophisticated financial market activity that allows traders and investors to manage risk, speculate on price movements, and generate income using derivative instruments known as options. Unlike traditional equity trading—where an investor buys or sells shares outright—options derive their value from an underlying asset such as stocks, indices, commodities, currencies, or cryptocurrencies.
An option contract gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specific time period. The seller (writer) of the option, on the other hand, has the obligation to fulfill the contract if the buyer chooses to exercise it.
Option trading is widely used in global financial markets due to its flexibility, leverage, and ability to profit in rising, falling, or even sideways markets.
BANK Of India weekly chart1. Pattern identification: The weekly Bank of India chart shows a rounding bottom marked with a white arc, indicating a potential long‑term reversal from downtrend to uptrend.
2. Current price action:
Price is ₹166.75 (close) with a 5.98% gain.
The stock is approaching the rim of the saucer near ₹170.
3. Breakout analysis:
A clean break above ₹170 on strong volume will confirm the rounding‑bottom completion and trigger a bullish move.
Target can be estimated by measuring the depth of the saucer, rise from bottom to rim.
4. Volume & momentum:
Volume spikes are seen during the bottom formation and recent rise, supporting accumulation.
5. The View :
Initiate a long position on a decisive breakout above ₹170 with a noticeable volume surge (preferably > average volume).
Stop‑loss: Place a protective stop below the lower support, around ₹160, to limit loss if the pattern fails.
The pattern suggests buyers are gaining control; risk‑reward is favorable if the breakout holds.
Bitcoin Bybit chart analysis JENUARY 21Hello
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This is a Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
The Nasdaq has been acting up lately.
As the Nasdaq is undergoing forced coupling,
please pay close attention to its movements.
*Long Position Strategy:
1. Confirm the touch of the purple finger at the top,
and then switch to a long position at $88,784 at the red finger at the bottom.
/ If the purple support line is broken, set a stop loss.
2. $91,612.7 long position initial target -> Top, then Good in that order.
If the strategy is successful, $90,566.3 is the long position re-entry point.
If the upper level falls immediately without touching the first point,
wait for a final long position at point 2. / If the green support line is broken, set a stop loss.
Today's bottom -> $86,977.3
is a major rebound point on the daily Bollinger Band chart.
Also, the orange resistance line at the top is the center line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band chart.
A strong breakout of this area is necessary for a true rebound.
Please use my analysis to this point for reference only.
I hope you operate safely, with a clear focus on principled trading and stop-loss orders.
Thank you.
MedPlus: Rising Channel Accumulation – Swing Opportunity StudyOn the daily chart, MedPlus Health Services is trading within a well-defined rising channel, indicating controlled accumulation after a prior decline. Price action shows higher lows and stable demand, while upside progress remains capped by a major resistance band.
🔸 Key Support Levels
₹740–760 → Primary channel support & accumulation zone
₹780–800 → Mid-channel support / short-term decision area
Holding above these zones keeps the bullish swing structure intact.
🔸 Key Resistance Levels
₹845–850 → Major horizontal resistance & breakout trigger
₹880–900 → First expansion zone after breakout
₹940–960 → Upper swing projection / prior rejection area
A decisive daily close above ₹850 with volume would indicate trend continuation, while failure to hold channel support would weaken the structure.
🔸 Invalidation Level (Structure Failure)
Below ₹740 (daily close)
Channel breakdown would invalidate the current swing thesis and suggest further consolidation or downside.
🔹 Swing Study Summary
Structure: Higher lows inside rising channel
Bias: Neutral-to-positive while above ₹740
Decision zone: ₹845–850
⚠️ Note
This analysis is for educational and chart-study purposes only.
It is not a buy/sell recommendation.
Decisive Zone in NAUKRI around 1345NAUKRI is currently sitting at a critical technical juncture. After a period of volatile price action, the stock has returned to a well-defined Decisive Zone (approx. 1,332 – 1,354). Historically, this area has acted as a significant ceiling (resistance), and how the price reacts here will likely dictate the trend for the coming sessions.
Success in this zone depends entirely on Volume Confirmation.
🚀 Bullish Scenario: If the price breaks above the zone with a high-volume spike, it confirms that buyers have overwhelmed the sellers. Action: Look for long opportunities on a candle close above resistance. Target 1400
📉 Bearish Scenario: If the price faces rejection at these levels (forming long upper wicks) and breaks back below the immediate support, the historical resistance remains intact. Action: Look for short opportunities or wait for a better base to form. Target 1290
Sensex – Short Term & Long Term Levels (Educational View)
Key Structural Levels:
Immediate Support (Short Term): 81,800
Major Positional Support (Long Term): 81,500
Short Term View (1–2 Days)
As long as 81,800 holds, pullback buys are possible with:
SL: Below 81,800 (sustained break)
Upside Targets:
82,900
83,300 – 83,500
If price breaks today’s high and holds above 82,300,
a move toward 83k–83.5k zone is likely.
If 81,800 breaks and sustains, short-term trend turns bearish
with downside toward 81,500.
Long Term / Positional View
As long as 81,500 holds on higher timeframe,
long-term structure remains intact with upside potential toward:
85,500 – 86,000
If 81,500 breaks and sustains on 4H/Daily,
positional structure turns bearish with further downside expected.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered advisor/trader.
This view is shared only for educational and learning purposes.
Please do your own analysis before taking any trade.
Sensex Expiry Day View (Educational)
On expiry days, settlement is often managed near key intraday levels.
If price holds above 81,800 and breaks/holds above today’s high,
there is a good probability of expiry near the day’s high or just below it.
If price remains between 81,800 – 82,300,
expiry is likely to be range-bound, settling near the middle of the day’s range.
If 81,800 breaks and sustains in the second half,
expiry may drift toward 81,500.
This view is based on expiry day price behavior and key levels.
Disclaimer : I am not a SEBI registered advisor/trader.
This post is only for educational and learning purposes.
XAUUSD (Gold) – Short-Term Bullish Rebound Within Broader ConsolPrice Action
Gold has rebounded from the recent swing low near 4775–4780, forming higher lows.
Price is moving along an ascending trendline (blue dashed line), indicating short-term bullish momentum.
However, the broader structure still looks like a range / consolidation after a prior impulsive move.
RSI (14)
RSI is around 54, back above the mid-line (50).
Earlier bearish RSI divergence played out, but momentum is now recovering, suggesting buyers are regaining control.
No overbought condition yet → room for further upside.
Awesome Oscillator (AO)
AO remains below zero, but red bars are shrinking.
This signals waning bearish momentum and a potential shift toward bullish pressure.
MACD (12,26,9)
MACD is still slightly below the signal line, but histogram is contracting upward.
Early signs of a bullish crossover forming if momentum continues.
Key Levels
Immediate Support: 4800 / 4775
Trend Support: Rising trendline from recent low
Resistance: 4850 → 4875
Upside Extension: 4900+ if bullish continuation confirms
DALBHARAT at Resistance of around 2240DALBHARAT is at a high-stakes technical crossroads today. The stock has just surged into a well-defined Decisive Zone (approx. ₹2,195 – ₹2,259), fueled by a stellar Q3 performance.
Today, the company reported a massive 94% surge in YoY Net Profit (₹122 Cr), sending the stock up nearly 2% to test major resistance.
The upper red line (~₹2,259) represents a key historical barrier. A break above this could open the doors toward its 52-week high of ₹2,496.
🚀 The Breakout (BUY): If the price closes above ₹2260 on strong volume, it confirms a breakout from historical resistance. This would likely trigger a fresh rally as buyers take full control towards 2430
📉 The Rejection (SELL): If the stock fails to cross the zone and breaks below immediate support at ₹2,194, expect a period of profit-booking or consolidation back toward the ₹2060 levels.
Part 4 Institutional Option Trading Vs. Technical AnalysisBasic Terminology of Options
Underlying: Asset on which the option is based (Nifty, Bank Nifty, stocks).
Strike Price: The fixed price at which the holder can buy or sell.
Premium: The price paid to buy an option.
Expiry Date: Date on which the option becomes void.
Lot Size: Minimum quantity you must trade (e.g., Nifty lot = 50).
Intrinsic Value: Real value if the option is exercised now.
Time Value: Extra premium due to remaining time until expiry.
Option Buyer: Pays premium, has limited risk and unlimited reward potential.
Option Seller (Writer): Receives premium, has limited reward and potentially high risk.
Geopolitical tensions || XAUSD-Goldcurrent market data for January 22, 2026, gold prices are experiencing a sharp pullback after hitting historic highs. This shift is primarily driven by a "thaw" in geopolitical tensions regarding the US-Greenland situation.
What's Going On?
The Pullback: After surging to a peak of nearly $4,887 per ounce (and over ₹1,58,000 per 10g in India) on Wednesday, gold prices have dropped by roughly 1–2% today.
The Catalyst: President Trump retreated from immediate tariff threats against Europe over the Greenland issue, easing the "geopolitical risk premium." This has caused some investors to "sell the news" and take profits.
Current Price Levels: Spot gold (XAUUSD) is currently hovering around $4,780–$4,815 per ounce.
Strategy for Next Steps
Whether you should buy or sell depends on your time horizon:
1. If You Are Selling (Taking Profits)
The Window: If you bought during the early January consolidation (around $4,500–$4,600), you are still in a strong profit position.
Next Step: Consider trailing your stop-loss or selling a portion of your position now. While the long-term trend is bullish, the "Greenland premium" is deflating, which could push prices down to the $4,712 support level before they stabilize.
2. If You Are Buying (New Entry)
Wait for Support: Do not "catch a falling knife" during today’s drop. Analysts are watching the $4,750 and $4,712 levels as potential zones where buyers might step back in.
Next Step: Look for a "bounce" or stabilization at these support levels. If prices hold above $4,710, it confirms the uptrend is still healthy despite the news.
Long-term Outlook: Major banks like Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan have raised their 2026 targets toward $5,000–$5,400, suggesting that pullbacks today are likely "buying opportunities" for long-term holders.
Part 3 Institutional Option Trading Vs. Technical Analysis What Are Options?
Options are derivative contracts whose value is derived from an underlying asset like index (Nifty, Bank Nifty), stocks, commodities, currencies, etc.
They give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying at a fixed price before a specific date.
Options are mainly of two types:
Call Option (CE): Right to BUY
Put Option (PE): Right to SELL
They are widely used by traders for hedging, speculation, income generation, and risk management.
SSWL - QUICK TRADE💡 Liked the idea?
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Result Bet QUICK Trade
CMP 188
SL 175
Tgt upto 210
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XAUUSD H1 – Liquidity Grab Completed, Buy the DipMarket Context
Gold has just completed a strong impulsive rally, leaving behind multiple liquidity pockets and imbalance zones below. The current pullback is technical in nature, serving as a rebalancing phase after expansion rather than a trend reversal.
From a macro perspective, safe-haven demand and a cautious Fed outlook continue to support Gold, keeping the broader bias tilted to the upside.
Technical Structure (H1 – MMF)
Market structure remains bullish with higher highs and higher lows.
The recent sell-off is a liquidity grab into previous demand zones.
No confirmed bearish CHoCH at this stage.
Price is still holding above the major H1 GAP liquidity zone.
Trading Plan – MMF Style
Primary Scenario – Trend-Following BUY
Prefer BUY setups on pullbacks into:
BUY zone 1: 4,759 – 4,729
BUY zone 2 (deep): 4,669 – 4,600
Only execute BUYs after clear bullish reaction and structure hold.
Avoid FOMO at premium levels.
Upside Targets
TP1: 4,817
TP2: 4,892
TP3: 4,898 (liquidity sweep zone)
Alternative Scenario
If price fails to hold above 4,729 and sweeps deeper liquidity into the GAP H1 zone, wait for re-accumulation signals before re-entering BUYs.
Invalidation
An H1 close below 4,600 invalidates the bullish setup and requires a full structure reassessment.
Summary
The broader trend remains bullish. The current move is a corrective pullback into liquidity, offering high-quality buy-the-dip opportunities. Patience and confirmation remain key — let price come to you.
XAUUSD – H2 Technical AnalysisLiquidity Pullback Within a Strong Bullish Structure | Lana ✨
Gold continues to trade within a well-defined bullish structure on the H2 timeframe. The recent surge was impulsive, followed by a healthy retracement that appears to be rebalancing liquidity rather than signaling a trend reversal.
Price action remains constructive as long as the market respects key structural levels and the ascending trendline.
📈 Market Structure & Trend Context
The overall trend remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows still intact.
Price continues to respect the ascending trendline, which has acted as reliable dynamic support throughout the uptrend.
The recent pullback occurred after an aggressive upside expansion, fitting the classic sequence:
Impulse → Pullback → Continuation
No clear distribution pattern is visible at this stage. As long as structural support holds, the bias remains BUY on pullbacks, not selling strength.
🔍 Key Technical Zones & Value Areas
Primary Buy POC Zone: 4764 – 4770
This area represents a high-volume node (POC) and aligns closely with the rising trendline.
It is a natural zone where price may rebalance before resuming the bullish trend.
Secondary Value Area (VAL–VAH): 4714 – 4718
A deeper liquidity zone that could act as support if sell pressure temporarily increases.
Near-term resistance: 4843
Acceptance above this level strengthens the continuation scenario.
Psychological reaction zone: 4900
Likely to generate short-term hesitation or profit-taking.
Higher-timeframe expansion targets:
5000 (psychological level)
2.618 Fibonacci extension, where major liquidity may be resting.
🎯 Trading Plan – H2 Structure-Based
✅ Primary Scenario: BUY the Pullback
Buy Entry:
👉 4766 – 4770
Lana prefers to engage only if price pulls back into the POC zone and shows bullish confirmation on H1–H2 (trendline hold, strong rejection of lower prices, or bullish follow-through).
Stop Loss:
👉 4756 – 4758
(Placed ~8–10 points below entry, beneath the POC zone and the ascending trendline)
🎯 Take Profit Targets (Scaled Exits)
TP1: 4843
First resistance zone — partial profit-taking recommended.
TP2: 4900
Psychological level with potential short-term reactions.
TP3: 5000
Major psychological milestone and upside expansion target.
TP4 (extension): 5050 – 5080
Area aligned with the 2.618 Fibonacci extension and higher-timeframe liquidity.
The preferred approach is to scale out gradually and protect the position, adjusting risk as price confirms continuation.
🌍 Macro Context (Brief)
According to Goldman Sachs, central banks in emerging markets are expected to continue diversifying reserves away from traditional assets and into gold.
Average annual central bank gold purchases are projected to reach around 60 tons by 2026, reinforcing structural demand for gold.
This ongoing accumulation supports the idea that pullbacks are more likely driven by positioning and profit-taking, rather than a shift in long-term fundamentals.
🧠 Lana’s View
This remains a pullback within a bullish trend, not a bearish reversal.
The focus stays on buying value at key liquidity zones, not chasing price at highs.
Patience, structure, and disciplined execution remain the edge.
✨ Respect the trend, trade the structure, and let price come to your zone.






















