Gold 2.28 Analysis
The trend of gold at the hourly level shows a clear downward channel, and the market sentiment tends to be weak. Combined with the weak performance of the European session and the possible second decline space of the US session, the following is a more detailed strategy planning and key point analysis:
1. Current technical analysis
Downward channel: The gold price has formed a new downward channel at the hourly level, and the overall trend is bearish.
Key resistance level:
US$2868: The top and bottom conversion position is also the short-term long-short watershed.
US$2872: The middle track resistance is also the 618 Fibonacci retracement level of the intraday decline. If the price cannot stand firm on the middle track, the downward trend may continue.
Key support level:
US$2842-2836: The lower track support area of the downward channel may become a short-term stabilization and rebound position.
MACD bottom divergence: The short-term MACD has a bottom divergence signal, which may form a resonance near the lower track to support the price rebound.
2. Impact of the evening PCE data
Trends before the data is released:
If the price remains weak before the PCE data, the US market may continue to test the 2842-2836 US dollar area.
Possible trends after the data is released:
Gold bullish (pull up):
If the price pulls up and pierces the middle track of 2872 US dollars, it may test the upper track of the channel near 2890-2895 US dollars.
The upper track is an ideal bearish fallback position, and you can try to go high at that time, with the target looking back at the middle track or the lower track.
Gold bearish (suppression):
If the data suppresses gold, the price may directly fall below the 2842-2836 US dollar area, further opening up the downside space.
3. Trading strategy planning
Bearish scenario (price has not stabilized the middle track):
Entry point: When the price rebounds to the pressure near 2868-2872 US dollars.
Target: Look down to the 2842-2836 US dollar area.
Stop loss: above $2875 (above the middle track).
Bullish scenario (price stabilizes at the lower track):
Entry point: The price hits the $2842-2836 area and a stabilization signal appears (such as MACD bottom divergence, K-line reversal pattern).
Target: Look up to around $2868-2872.
Stop loss: below $2835.
Wide range shock scenario (price breaks through the middle track):
Entry point: When the price rises to around $2890-2895 and is under pressure.
Target: Look back to around $2868-2872.
Stop loss: above $2900.
4. Risk warning
PCE data risk: Evening PCE data may cause drastic market fluctuations. Traders need to operate with caution and avoid heavy positions before the data is released.
Stop loss setting: Whether bullish or bearish, be sure to set a reasonable stop loss to prevent unexpected market conditions from causing large losses.
Position management: In the data market, it is recommended to operate with a light position and gradually increase the position after the trend becomes clear.
Summary
The hourly level of gold is in the downward channel, and the short-term trend is bearish. The key resistance is in the $2868-2872 area, and the support is in the $2842-2836 area. The PCE data in the evening may trigger market fluctuations. If the price rises and breaks through the middle track, it may turn into a wide range of fluctuations; if the data suppresses gold, the price may further fall. Traders need to flexibly adjust their strategies according to data results and technical signals, focusing on the performance of key support and resistance levels.
