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Trend Analysis

[SeoVereign] BITCOIN BULLISH Outlook – January 21, 2025The market’s direction is becoming increasingly ambiguous. As the market fails to present a clear directional bias, I am likewise experiencing considerable difficulty in reading its flow. The current market environment is characterized by a significant expansion in volatility, where movements suggesting the completion of a downtrend and a transition to an upward phase are repeatedly followed by sharp retracements that erase the entirety of the advance. From a short-term perspective, this represents an extremely fatiguing phase; however, from a macro perspective, it corresponds to a textbook consolidation range. Consolidation is generally perceived as a tedious and painful phase, yet it is crucial to recognize that the longer a consolidation persists, the more powerful the volatility that tends to follow thereafter. Many market participants become fixated on the minor fluctuations that occur within consolidation ranges, repeatedly engaging in forced and excessive trades, thereby eroding their capital. As a result, when a decisive trend finally emerges, they are placed in the critical situation of being unable to participate in that move. Accordingly, the most important priority at this stage is not to hastily predict the next move, but to preserve capital through rigorous risk management. From the perspective of directional analysis, time itself represents the accumulation of evidence. By way of analogy, when eating with one’s eyes covered, it is difficult to identify the food immediately after placing it in one’s mouth; only through repeated chewing and swallowing does the taste and composition become clear. The current market is likewise passing through a very prolonged consolidation phase, and the evidence accumulated during this process will ultimately indicate the future direction and magnitude with greater clarity. In general, when consolidation persists to this extent, the subsequent move tends to be relatively clear. That said, at the present moment, I am assigning equal probability to both upside and downside scenarios. While it is unusual for directionality to remain unclear after such an extended consolidation, experience suggests that in these conditions, there is often a marginally higher probability of an additional downward extension of the existing trend. However, within my analytical framework, signals have also been detected that provide sufficient grounds to assert the possibility of an immediate upward move. In circumstances where indicators conflict in this manner, the optimal approach is to exercise patience and wait for a point at which directionality becomes clearly defined. Accordingly, I am currently maintaining a strategy centered on short-term trading within the 15-minute timeframe, and I would like to share a newly identified bullish perspective observed within the same timeframe. At present, the price structure is approaching the completion zone of a 1.902 Deep Crab pattern formed following a downtrend. While completion of such a pattern does not allow one to definitively conclude a trend reversal, it is nonetheless classified as a region where technical reactions and attempts at short-term structural shifts are highly likely to occur within a broader downtrend. In other words, it represents an area where selling pressure tends to weaken near the tail end of a decline and where short-term buying responses may emerge. Such structures typically form in zones where fear among market participants reaches its peak. Additionally, the Fibonacci retracement zone of 0.5 to 0.618, measured from the recent high-to-low downward impulse, precisely overlaps with the pattern completion area. Based on these technical factors, the average target zone has been set at 92,500 USDT, and I plan to respond flexibly through the expansion and reduction of long positions. I will continue to closely monitor market reactions and provide ongoing updates should there be any changes in perspective or additional analytical developments. This concludes the current idea.
Long
by SeoVereign
Nifty preparing up for the Budget As we discussed yesterday, NSE:NIFTY did bounce from the day’s low and closed with a small green candle. The price action says it all. For tomorrow, the index is likely to move towards 25350. If it reaches this zone and then gives a dip, that will be an opportunity to add longs. However, if the index gets rejected near 25280, we may end up with a sideways day. Support is placed at 25074. As long as this level holds, buying interest should remain active from lower levels. A gap-up opening would be healthy from here. But if the market opens gap-down, that should not be chased for buying. Sector-wise, nothing looks strong at the moment. However, Cement and Defence are showing some traction, mainly due to budget expectations. For now, this is all the data I have. Let more data come from lower levels tomorrow. After that, we can plan a proper bullish buildup in both equity and futures. Take care. Have a profitable day ahead. 📊 Levels at a glance: Upside zone: 25350 Rejection zone: 25280 Support: 25074 Bias: Reactive, wait for confirmation Sector watch: Cement, Defence
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Trendxinc
Just a national level tug of war || XAUSDAs of January 21, 2026, gold has smashed through several record highs, recently trading above $4,800 per ounce (and over ₹1,50,000 per 10 grams in India). This "uninterrupted uptrend" is being driven by a rare combination of geopolitical shocks and shifts in the global financial system. To help you make sense of it, here is a breakdown of the four "pillars" driving today's market: 1. The "Greenland Factor" and Trade Wars The most immediate cause of the current price surge is a massive diplomatic and trade standoff. Geopolitical Friction: Tensions have escalated following U.S. President Trump’s pursuit of acquiring Greenland. This has led to a "transatlantic trade conflict" with Europe. Tariff Threats: The U.S. has announced 10% tariffs on several European countries (like France, Germany, and the UK) starting February 1, with threats to raise them to 25% by June. Impact: Whenever the world’s biggest economies fight, investors panic and "flight to safety"—which means buying gold. 2. Central Banks are "De-Dollarizing" For the first time since 1996, gold now accounts for a larger share of global central bank reserves than U.S. Treasuries. Record Buying: Central banks (led by Poland, China, and India) are buying gold at a historic pace to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. The "Hedge" Strategy: Central banks view gold as the ultimate insurance policy against currency sanctions or a potential collapse of the fiat currency system. 3. Economic Volatility (Inflation & Interest Rates) Weakening Dollar: The U.S. dollar has faced significant pressure in early 2026. Because gold is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers, driving up demand. Interest Rates: While the Federal Reserve has been hesitant to cut rates aggressively, the market is pricing in "lower for longer" yields. Since gold doesn't pay interest, it becomes much more attractive when bonds and savings accounts offer lower returns. 4. Supply and Demand Imbalance Limited Mining: New gold discoveries are at a standstill. Mining output is only growing by about 0.3% per year, which isn't enough to keep up with the massive surge in investor demand. Investment Inflows: Gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) saw record-breaking inflows in late 2025 and early 2026, as even retail investors began treating gold as a primary wealth-protection asset rather than just a side investment.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BhupendraNishad
1
THANGAMAYIL: Breakout Retest Holds | Price & Volume SpeakTimeframe: Daily Stock: THANGAMAYIL Market: NSE 📦 Base → Breakout Price spent multiple weeks inside a well-defined consolidation box, indicating balance and accumulation. On 07 January 2026, price cleanly broke above this range with strong bullish expansion and clear volume participation — confirming buyer initiative. 🔁 Retest With Clear Rejection (21 January 2026) Price revisited the breakout zone today and formed a bullish rejection candle on the daily timeframe. Important clarity: This is not a perfect bullish hammer It is not a textbook dragonfly doji However, the lower rejection wick is long and decisive enough to confirm rejection of lower prices Price acceptance above the breakout zone is what matters — not candle names. 📊 Volume Validates the Move Breakout → high volume Retest → even higher volume This indicates strong absorption of supply and confirms that buyers defended structure aggressively. 🎯 Trade View (Price-Based) Swing Trade Stop Loss: Below today’s retest candle low Positional Trade Stop Loss: ₹2970 (lower boundary of the earlier consolidation box) Targets ₹4150 as first objective Thereafter, trail stops and ride the trend Suitable for swing and positional traders. ✅ Summary No indicators. No news. No opinions. Just structure, breakout, retest, rejection, and volume. 📌 Disclaimer This is not financial advice. Shared strictly for educational and analysis purposes. Please manage risk responsibly and trade as per your own plan. 👍 If you found this useful, consider boosting 👍 and following for more clean price–volume setups. 💡 Feel free to suggest stocks or structures you’d like me to analyse next.
NSE:THANGAMAYLLong
by Alert_Trader
Option TradingRetail and Institutional Option Trading Retail traders usually focus on buying options, hoping for fast price movement. Institutions, on the other hand, mostly sell options because time decay (Theta) works in their favor. Key differences: Retail traders chase momentum and news Institutions focus on probability, statistics, and data Retail uses indicators Institutions use Option Chain, OI, volume, and volatility Retail looks for big wins Institutions look for consistent returns Institutions understand that 90% of options expire worthless, which is why option writing dominates institutional strategies.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by SkyTradingZone
7
Nifty Intraday Analysis for 21st January 2026NSE:NIFTY Index has resistance near 25400 – 25450 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 25625 – 26675 range. Nifty has immediate support near 25050 – 25000 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 24825 – 24775 range. The downward trend is expected to continue due to the US - Europe conflict on Greenland. Short term uptrend will be confirmed only if the index sustains and closes above 25500 level.
NSE:NIFTY
by RKMAURYA
Banknifty Intraday Analysis for 21st January 2026NSE:BANKNIFTY Index has resistance near 59800 – 59900 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 60300 – 60400 range. Banknifty has immediate support near 59000 - 58900 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 58500 - 58400 range. The downward trend is expected to continue due to the US - Europe conflict on Greenland. Short term uptrend will be confirmed only if the index sustains and closes above 59800 level.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by RKMAURYA
Finnifty Intraday Analysis for 21st January 2026NSE:CNXFINANCE Index has resistance near 27425 - 27475 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach near 27700 - 27750 range. Finnifty has immediate support near 26975 – 26925 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 26700 – 26650 range. The downward trend is expected to continue due to the US - Europe conflict on Greenland. Short term uptrend will be confirmed only if the index sustains and closes above 27600 level.
NSE:CNXFINANCE
by RKMAURYA
2
Midnifty Intraday Analysis for 21st January 2026NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECT Index has immediate resistance near 13425 – 13450 range and if index crosses and sustains above this level then may reach 13575 – 13600 range. Midnifty has immediate support near 13175 – 13150 range and if this support is broken then index may tank near 13025 – 13000 range. The downward trend is expected to continue due to the US - Europe conflict on Greenland. Short term uptrend will be confirmed only if the index sustains and closes above 13500 level.
NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECT
by RKMAURYA
XAUUSD/GOLD 30MIN BUY STOP PROJECTION 21.01.26Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle Bias: Bullish breakout Zone: Trendline + Fair Value Gap (strong demand area) 🔥 Next Move Expectation ✅ If price breaks and holds above the triangle resistance, ➡️ Strong upside rally is expected (Buy Stop setup). 🎯 Targets Target 1: 4870 Target 2: 4875 Target 3: 4886 – 4888 (Major Resistance R2 zone) 🛑 Stop Loss Stoploss: Below 4835 – 4840 support zone ➡️ If this breaks, downside continuation is possible.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by kripsonfx97
XAUUSD (Gold) | Bullish vs Bearish Scenario | Trading SetupBullish vs Bearish View Bullish Scenario (Primary Bias – Trend Continuation) Trend remains strongly bullish as long as price holds above the pivot zone (4858–4845). Buyers are in control, supported by ADX strength, MACD momentum, and moving average alignment. Break and hold above 4888 opens the door for further upside expansion. Bearish Scenario (Corrective Pullback Only) Bearish moves are considered corrective, not trend-reversing, unless price falls below 4800. Overbought conditions may trigger short-term profit booking, but trend remains bullish above key supports. Key Levels to Watch Resistance Levels 4888 – 4895 (Day high / breakout zone) 4914 4939 – 4950 (extension zone) Support Levels 4858 – Pivot 4845 4829 4803 4773 (strong trend support) Intraday Trading Strategy (Day Trading Plan) Strategy Type: Trend Continuation Buy-on-Dips Buy Setup Buy Zone: 4858 – 4845 (pivot support / minor pullback) Confirmation: Price holds above EMA20 / EMA50 Bullish rejection candle or continuation pattern on M15–M30 Targets Target 1: 4888 Target 2: 4914 Target 3 (extension): 4939 Stop Loss Intraday SL: Below 4825 Aggressive SL: Below 4800 (trend invalidation zone) Alternative Sell Strategy (Counter-Trend – High Risk) ⚠️Only for experienced traders Sell Zone: 4914 – 4940 Condition: Clear rejection + bearish divergence on M15/M30 Target: 4880 → 4858 Stop Loss: Above 4955 Preferred Trading Style Today ✔️Buy on dips ❌Avoid chasing price at highs ❌Avoid heavy counter-trend sells
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tradewith_ritik
Sensex - Expiry day analysis Jan 22The price faced resistance at the 84100 zone and was falling for a few days. Now it is having a pullback from the 81100 zone. 82000 can act as resistance as it coincides with the trend line resistance. Buy above 82040 with the stop loss of 81880 for the targets 82180, 82300, 82460, 82600 and 82780. Sell below 81700 with the stop loss of 81860 for the targets 81560, 81400, 81240, 81080 and 80900. As per the daily chart, the price is testing the trend line support. Always do your analysis before taking any trade.
BSE:SENSEX
by vanathi
6
Part 1 Institutional Option Trading VS. Technical Analysis Introduction to Option Trading Option trading is one of the most powerful yet misunderstood segments of the financial markets. Unlike traditional investing, where traders buy or sell shares outright, options are derivative instruments whose value is derived from an underlying asset such as stocks, indices, commodities, or currencies. Options provide traders with flexibility, leverage, risk management tools, and income generation opportunities. However, they also involve complexity and risk, making education and discipline essential. In modern markets, especially after the rise of derivatives exchanges like NSE, CBOE, and global electronic trading platforms, option trading has become central to institutional strategies, hedge funds, proprietary desks, and advanced retail traders.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by SkyTradingZone
4
XAUUSD - Brian | H2 Technical AnalysisGold remains constructive and continues to hold a bullish structure despite last night’s sharp cross-market volatility. The main driver behind the larger moves was heavy selling pressure in U.S. equities, which briefly accelerated safe-haven demand and helped support gold. On the macro side, tensions linked to Greenland and renewed tariff rhetoric have increased uncertainty across markets. The USD weakened in the short term, while the EUR appears more exposed to medium-term geopolitical and policy risks. This backdrop generally remains supportive for gold, especially on pullbacks into key support. Technical Structure & Key Zones (H2) On the H2 timeframe, XAUUSD is still trading within a clear uptrend: price respects the rising trendline and continues to print higher highs and higher lows, confirming buyers remain in control of the primary structure. The latest impulse leg has left several important technical areas: A Fair Value Gap (FVG) below current price, which may be revisited if a technical retracement develops. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone at 4750–4755, aligned with the rising trendline — a strong confluence support for a deeper pullback scenario. A higher, near-term demand area around 4812, suitable for shallow pullbacks during strong momentum conditions. As long as price holds above these demand zones, the medium-term bullish structure remains intact. Liquidity & Forward Expectations To the upside, the market still has room to expand toward prior highs and the ATH liquidity area. Any short-term pullback, if it occurs, may simply act as a reset before continuation — especially while macro volatility remains elevated. Reminder: strong trends rarely move in a straight line. Pauses and retracements are normal and often offer better participation than chasing price at the highs. Trading Bias Primary bias: Buy pullbacks in line with the trend; avoid FOMO entries near the top. Key zones to watch: 4812: shallow pullback / momentum continuation zone 4750–4755: deeper pullback into 0.618 + trendline confluence Preferred monitoring timeframe: H1–H4 to reduce noise Risk management remains critical given the market’s sensitivity to news flow and cross-asset swings. Refer to the accompanying chart for a detailed view of the structure, FVG, and key pullback zones. Follow the TradingView channel to get early updates and join the discussion on market structure and trade ideas.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
1
HOW TO TRADE 5 MIN ORB STRUCTURE?✅ What is 5-Min ORB? ORB = Opening Range Breakout You mark the high & low of the first 5-minute candle after market open. That first 5-min range becomes the battle zone for the day. 🔥 Step 1: Mark the ORB Levels After first 5-min candle closes, mark: ✅ ORB High ✅ ORB Low ✅ ORB Mid (optional) 🔥 Step 2: Read the Structure First (MOST IMPORTANT) Before taking any breakout, check: Bullish structure = Higher high + higher low forming Strong green candles No heavy selling wicks from top Bearish structure = Lower low + lower high forming Strong red candles Rejections from above 📌 If structure is unclear → no trade ✅ Best ORB Entry Types (Structure Based) 1️⃣ Break + Retest Entry (Best & Safe) BUY Setup Price breaks ORB High Candle closes above ORB High Then price retests ORB High Retest holds + bullish candle forms → BUY 📌 Stoploss: below retest low / ORB high 📌 Target: 1:2 or next resistance zone SELL Setup Price breaks ORB Low Candle closes below ORB Low Retest ORB Low fails → SELL 📌 Stoploss: above retest high / ORB low 📌 Target: 1:2 or next support zone 2️⃣ Impulse Breakout Entry (Only when momentum is strong) Take direct breakout only if: ✅ Big candle closes outside ORB ✅ Next candle continues in same direction ✅ No long wick rejection 📌 This is a “momentum ORB” trade. 3️⃣ Fakeout ORB (Trap Trade using structure) Fake breakout happens when Price breaks ORB High/Low But immediately comes back inside range Opposite strong candle appears Example Price breaks ORB High → fails → closes back inside ➡️ That’s weakness → SELL toward ORB Low 📌 Stoploss: above fakeout high 📌 Target: ORB mid / ORB low 🧠 ORB Structure Rules (Powerful) ✅ Rule 1: First breakout is not always real Many times market gives fake breakout first to trap traders. So wait for: ✔ close confirmation ✔ retest ✔ structure support ✅ Rule 2: ORB range size matters Too small ORB → whipsaw chances high Too big ORB → breakout needs time 📌 Best ORB = medium range (clean candle) ✅ Rule 3: Time filter Best ORB moves usually happen: 🕘 9:20 to 10:30 After that, breakouts can turn sideways. 🎯 Targets using Structure Instead of fixed targets, use: ✅ Previous day High/Low ✅ Gap fill zone ✅ Swing high / swing low ✅ Supply & demand zones ✅ Round numbers (like 22500 / 22600 etc.) ❌ Avoid ORB Trades When 🚫 ORB is inside heavy support/resistance zone 🚫 Market is already in strong trend before open 🚫 ORB breakout candle has long wick 🚫 Breakout happens after long sideways chop 🚫 Volume is dead + candles are small 📌 Simple ORB Checklist (Quick) Before trade ask: ✅ Did candle close outside ORB? ✅ Is structure supporting direction? ✅ Break + retest happened? ✅ Stoploss is logical? ✅ Target is clear? ✅ Risk:Reward at least 1:2? If any answer is NO → skip trade ⭐ Best ORB Strategy Summary Trade ORB like a price action trader: ✔ Break → Close → Retest → Continue ✔ Follow structure, not excitement ✔ Avoid fakeouts by waiting confirmation ✔ Keep SL tight & defined
NSE:NIFTY
by IndianPullbackTrader