XAUUSD – The Decisive Zone and Trading ScenariosTechnical Analysis
Gold prices on the H4 chart are in a recovery phase after retesting the support at 3,661–3,662. The latest candle has rebounded strongly to the 3,684 zone, yet the structure still indicates a clear tug-of-war.
The upward trendline was breached in the previous decline, and currently, the price is retracing to test this area again. This is a crucial point to determine whether the short-term uptrend will continue.
The Fair Value Gap (FVG) formed around the 3,613–3,626 zone, along with the Fibonacci extension, becomes a point of interest for deeper pullbacks.
The Volume Profile indicates the main Point of Control (POC) lies lower, around 3,551, a potential target for gold to revisit if selling pressure increases.
The RSI (14) is at ~59, leaning towards the buyers but hasn't crossed into the overbought territory → the current momentum is more of a recovery rather than a sustainable uptrend.
Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Buy following the short-term trend:
Entry: wait for a retest at 3,673–3,662
SL: below 3,655
TP1: 3,690–3,700
TP2: 3,708–3,715 (2.0–2.618 Fib extension)
Scenario 2 – Short sell after confirmed failure:
If the price fails to hold above 3,661 and there is a reversal signal on H4, consider selling.
Entry: 3,661–3,650 (after confirmation candle)
SL: above 3,673
TP1: 3,626–3,613 (FVG + support)
TP2: 3,579
TP3: 3,551 (POC Volume Profile)
Key Price Levels to Watch
3,708–3,715: extended resistance zone, Fibonacci confluence, important target for buyers.
3,661–3,662: short-term support, the boundary to determine the next trend.
3,613–3,626: FVG + intermediate support, a zone prone to reactions.
3,551: volume POC, a deeper target if the market breaks all support.
I will apply the long-term trading scenario in the new week, give me a follow for motivation to write more!
Trend Analysis
Gold: Major New Option Portfolios Signal Strong Moves AheadFriday’s CME report showed a surge in large option blocks in gold — two of them stand out.
🔹 1. "Long Condor" on December Futures (GCZ24)
This is the most significant structure added:
Targets a move below $3,620 or above $3,780
In other words: a breakout is expected, not consolidation
📌 Key point:
A "Long Condor" profits from volatility, not direction.
It wins if price moves sharply — up OR down — but loses if it stays flat.
🔹 2. Bull Call Spread (Oct Series): $3800–$3850
Another key play:
A classic bullish call spread at 3800/3850
Target: upside beyond current levels
But here’s the difference:
Unlike the "Long Condor", this one needs a clear upward move — and soon. Within a few days.
This isn’t about volatility.
It’s a directional bet that gold will rise.
🧠 Bottom Line:
One portfolio says: "Breakout coming — no matter which way."
Another says: "Gold goes up — and soon."
Are they aligned?
Contradictory?
Or could both win?
Trade smarter, not harder! Looking to boost your profits with valuable market insights and data-driven entry points? Join us or keep moving!
LiamTrading – Long-Term Trend for XAUUSD is Taking ShapeGold continues its robust upward momentum, currently trading around 3,680 – 3,685. After a series of consecutive bullish candles, the price is showing signs of consolidation and slight adjustment, paving the way for crucial scenarios in the upcoming phase.
Technical Analysis
On the Daily chart, the RSI has surpassed the 70 mark, indicating an overbought condition. This is often an early warning sign for a potential correction.
The price structure suggests that the FVG zone of 3,630 – 3,600 will be the first observation point if a short-term correction occurs.
A stronger support zone lies at 3,510 – 3,475, coinciding with Fibonacci levels 0.5 – 0.382, and also the previous resistance area that has been broken. This is considered a potential long-term 'Buy zone'.
If the correction completes, gold has the potential to return to its upward trend with a further target around 3,800 (Fibonacci extension levels 2.618 – 3.618).
Trading Scenarios
Short-term: Monitor the reaction at 3,630 – 3,600. If it holds, there might be a short recovery.
The price area around 3552-3562 should be watched for reactions.
Medium-term: Wait for the price to test the 3,500 – 3,475 zone to find more sustainable buying opportunities.
Long-term: The major trend still leans towards an increase, with an expected target towards 3,800.
This is my personal view on XAUUSD, and you can consider it to build your own plan. If you find it useful, follow me for the latest updates on gold's upcoming scenarios.
XAUUSD – Strong Resistance at 3760–3770 Await ConfirmationHello trader,
Gold continues to fluctuate within the accumulation zone after the recent recovery. Although the larger trend leans towards an increase, a clear confirmation at key resistance-support levels is needed for a stronger breakout.
Strong Resistance: 3760 – 3770, converging with the Fibonacci extension zone. This is a crucial level if the price aims to create a new ATH in the mid-term.
Key level Sell: 3685 – 3695, currently a short-term resistance zone. If the price fails to break through, gold may face downward pressure.
Important Support:
3564 – 3574: mid-term support.
3534 – 3540: deep support zone, aligning with previous liquidity.
MACD H4: Histogram remains weak, momentum is unclear → the market needs further confirmation to clearly define the trend.
Trading Scenario
Bullish Scenario
Condition: Price breaks above 3695 and holds.
Entry: Retest 3665 – 3668.
Target: 3680-3698-3715-3730 – 3760 – 3770.
Extension: If successfully surpassing 3770 → expect a move towards 3800+.
Bearish Scenario
Condition: Price fails at 3695 and reverses.
Entry: Sell at 3685 – 3695 zone upon rejection signal.
Target: 3672-3655-3635 – 3600 – 3574.
Extension: If breaking 3574, the decline may target 3540, or even deeper.
Mid-term Scenario
Price may retest 3534 – 3550 to gather liquidity, then rebound following the larger trend. This will be an attractive long-term Buy zone.
The gold market is at a crucial stage: buyers need to break 3695 to confirm the uptrend, while sellers still have opportunities at the short-term resistance zone. Deep support levels will continue to serve as a foundation for mid-term Buy strategies.
Keep a close watch on 3695 and 3760 – 3770 to determine the next direction.
Stay tuned for the latest scenarios as the price structure evolves.
Near month end - Poor RR on upside, scope for profit takingAs we approach the final week of September, it’s worth noting that Nifty has witnessed a strong rally through the first three weeks of the month. Going into the coming week and the remainder of the month, the risk–reward on the upside appears limited. This raises the possibility of profit-taking and a potential mean reversion toward lower levels. In such a scenario, key support zones to watch would include previous monthly highs and other established support levels.
FARTCOIN/USDT — Short (Scalp)✅Rules applied to take the trade
1️⃣•Top-down MTF check: Daily/4H context is bearish with lower highs and momentum fade.
2️⃣•Zone first: Price tapped the 4H/D supply at 0.775–0.800 (origin of the last impulsive sell; imbalance above ~0.79 now filled).
3️⃣ •Wait for LTF confirmation: On 15m/5m we got rejection wicks + bearish engulfing and a BOS/CHOCH (break of the last minor HL) inside the supply.
4️⃣•Entry method: Limit entry on the retest of the zone; no chasing.
5️⃣•Invalidation & targets: SL where the idea is objectively wrong; TPs at nearby liquidity pools/previous lows.
6️⃣•Risk/Reward rule: Setup offers R:R ≈ 1:2.6, meeting our ≥1:2 requirement.
✍️Plan
🛫• EN: 0.775 – 0.780 (limit on supply retest)
🚫‼️• SL: 0.810 (above the supply
✔️• TPs: TP1 0.745, TP2 0.720, TP3 0.705
❗️• Management: Take partial at TP1 and move SL to BE per our management rules.
📌Idea: Clean supply rejection + LTF reversal signal + clear invalidation = high-quality scalp short.
Century Plyboards - SMC Analysis
Technical :
=> Uptrend is intact
=> Trending above key moving averages
=> Based on the SMC analysis, we can expect to give good upside movement
=> Now, it is ready to take retracement and the retracement level will be the FVG Area (between 755 & 778)
=> For best risk/reward, we can wait and take entry at the retracement level for the estimate target of 890/895
=> Stop Loss is around 710
== EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY ==
THYROCARE TECHNOLOGIES (GAP FILLED) (MY PERSONAL VIEW)Daily Chart- THYROCARE - NSE
My personal view indicates the price rose with substantial strength and volume. The gap between 1205 and 1251 has now been completely filled. Volume has declined during the current consolidation phase, which historically can precede a major trend movement. I will only consider long positions if price clears above the gap level, which will serve as my entry confirmation.
KEY LEVELS (MY PERSONAL VIEW):
•Entry: Price clearance above 1251 (gap resistance)
•Target 1: Liquidity zone between 1375-1465
•Target 2: All-time high at 1465
•Target 3: 10% above ATH or trail according to momentum
•Stop Loss: Below recent swing low
TRADE ADVANTAGES (MY PERSONAL VIEW):
•Favorable risk-reward ratio with well-defined stop loss
•Clear entry trigger above confirmed resistance
•Multiple profit targets allow for partial position management
•Consolidation breakout suggests potential for strong momentum
•Historical liquidity zone provides logical profit-taking area
NARRATIVE (MY PERSONAL VIEW):
The substantial earlier advance demonstrated significant buying interest. The successful gap fill represents a healthy consolidation phase. The noticeably diminished volume during this consolidation typically precedes substantial directional moves. I anticipate a breakout above the gap level will initiate the next leg upward toward the identified liquidity zones and historical resistance levels.
Disclaimer: I am not a registered or authorized financial advisor and do not provide financial education. This post reflects only my personal view and trading approach. This is not advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
WHAT'S YOUR VIEW? COMMENT BELOW.
Crypto Analysis – HYPE Market Report and Price OutlookThe market has been moving in a wide range with alternating phases of expansion and correction. Earlier momentum was dominated by aggressive buyers, driving price toward higher valuation zones. However, this upward flow slowed down, allowing sellers to step in and create a corrective phase.
During the last sessions, activity shifted into redistribution, where both buyers and sellers tested liquidity. The strong rejection from the upper levels indicates exhaustion of short-term bullish momentum, opening the way for deeper corrective moves. At the same time, the dotted projection reflects market expectation that after sweeping lower liquidity pockets, buyers could return strongly to retest higher valuation areas.
The overall structure reveals engineered volatility designed to capture both sides of the market before a decisive directional move. Short-term pressure remains on the downside, but the broader behavior suggests preparation for another expansion cycle.
SAIL (Weekly) - Can it SAIL past the resistances ?SAIL is showing signs of a potential turnaround after a prolonged downtrend that began in May 2024. This week, the stock executed a significant breakout from a long-term angular resistance trendline , a move accompanied by a healthy increase in volume and a price surge of +2.98% .
This bullish development follows a period of consolidation that began after the downtrend reversed in January 2025. The stock is now testing a key short-term resistance level.
Bullish Indicators to Note 👍
The positive outlook is supported by the following technical signals:
- Breakout Confirmation: The move through the long-term trendline was validated by a notable increase in trading volume , indicating strong buyer participation.
- Momentum: Short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are in a positive crossover , signaling building upward momentum.
Immediate Hurdles Ahead 🚧
Despite the positive momentum, a sustained rally depends on the stock's ability to overcome two significant upcoming resistance levels . The price action in the upcoming week will be crucial to watch for confirmation of the breakout's strength.
Future Outlook and Key Levels
- Bullish Case 📈: If the stock successfully breaks through the immediate resistances and the upward momentum continues, the next potential price target is ₹159 .
- Bearish Case 📉: However, if the stock fails to clear these hurdles and momentum wanes, a pullback towards the support level of ₹117 is possible.
Palantir (Weekly) - Consolidation Near All-Time HighAfter reaching a new All-Time High (ATH) in recent weeks, Palantir has entered a period of consolidation. The stock has since been trading in a sideways range, struggling to break past the newly established resistance level.
Emerging Bullish Signals 👍
Despite the sideways movement, several indicators suggest that buyers are showing renewed interest:
- Momentum: Short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have formed a positive crossover , a technical signal indicating that upward momentum is building.
- Volume: Trading volume has been noticeably increasing , which suggests growing accumulation and buyer interest at the current price levels.
Future Outlook and Key Price Levels
The stock is currently positioned for a potential move, with two clear scenarios:
- Bullish Case 📈: A decisive breakout above the short-term horizontal resistance would signal a continuation of the uptrend. If this occurs, the next potential price target could be USD 234 .
- Bearish Case 📉: If the stock fails to overcome the resistance and momentum fades, it may decline to the lower boundary of its consolidation range, with a potential support level near USD 142 .
Watchout for the next moves !!
$MNT - breakout and onto newer highsTSX:MNT at its current levels & especially, its chart - is a great study to notice patterns for break outs in coins that have not yet pumped. TSX:MNT sentiment is that it does have more upside, having said that - this would be a great study to follow up on other coins that are yet to surge with similar sentiments, fundamentals, deals, collabs - and technicals.
Polycab India: Strong Q1 Powers Return to Supply ZoneTechnical Analysis
Polycab India has demonstrated exceptional technical progression showcasing a remarkable super bullish rally over the past few years. Before COVID, the stock was trading at ₹1,200 levels, but the pandemic-induced correction brought it down to ₹600 - representing a significant 50% decline from pre-COVID highs.
However, the post-COVID recovery proved extraordinary as the stock embarked on a phenomenal journey, surging from ₹600 lows directly to ₹7,300 by June 2024 - representing an incredible 12x growth in just over 4 years. This massive rally established Polycab as one of the top performing stocks in the electrical equipment sector.
The ₹7,300-7,600 zone has acted as formidable resistance multiple times, creating a critical supply area that has tested the stock's momentum repeatedly. When this resistance proved too strong, the stock underwent a sharp correction down to ₹4,500 levels by February 2025, representing a significant 38% decline from the highs.
The game-changing catalyst arrived with strong Q4 FY25 results followed by impressive Q1 FY26 performance, showcasing record revenue growth and robust profitability. These stellar quarterly numbers provided the momentum needed to stage a remarkable recovery back toward the supply zone.
Currently trading at ₹7,549, the stock has successfully returned to the critical 7,300-7,600 supply zone. If this resistance transforms into robust support with bullish candlestick pattern confirmation and volume backing, the technical setup appears highly favorable for the next leg of rally.
Entry Strategy: Monitor for breakout above ₹7,600 with strong volume confirmation, or enter on dips toward ₹7,300 if it holds as support.
Targets:
Target 1: ₹8,000
Target 2: ₹8,500
Target 3: ₹9,000
Stop Losses:
Critical Stop: ₹7,200 (below supply zone support)
If ₹7,300-7,600 supply zone doesn't act as support or shows rejection, caution advised on further expectations.
Q1 FY26 Financial Highlights (vs Q4 FY25 & Q1 FY25)
Total Income: ₹5,906 Cr (↓ -15.5% QoQ from ₹6,986 Cr; ↑ +25.7% YoY from ₹4,698 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹5,048 Cr (↓ -15.3% QoQ from ₹5,960 Cr; ↑ +22.7% YoY from ₹4,115 Cr)
Operating Profit: ₹858 Cr (↓ -16.3% QoQ from ₹1,025 Cr; ↑ +47.2% YoY from ₹583 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹801 Cr (↓ -16.6% QoQ from ₹961 Cr; ↑ +50.3% YoY from ₹533 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹600 Cr (↓ -18.3% QoQ from ₹734 Cr; ↑ +49.3% YoY from ₹402 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹39.34 (↓ -18.6% QoQ from ₹48.31; ↑ +49.3% YoY from ₹26.34)
Fundamental Highlights
Polycab India delivered spectacular Q1 FY26 performance with PAT surging an exceptional 49.3% YoY to ₹600 crore, driven by strong performance in the Wires & Cables business which led to a robust 25.7% YoY revenue growth. The company's consolidated net profit spiked 49.32% with revenue rising 25.71% to ₹5,906 crore in Q1 FY26, with the Wires & Cables segment leading the growth momentum.
As India's largest manufacturer of wires and cables, Polycab dominates the market with 84% revenue contribution from the W&C segment in FY25, offering a diverse product portfolio including flexible wires, building wires, optical-fiber cables, and control cables. The company's integrated manufacturing approach provides significant competitive advantages in cost management and quality control.
Market cap stands at ₹1,12,867 crore (up 14.9% in 1 year) with stable promoter holding of 63.0%, indicating strong management confidence. The company achieved record-breaking revenues and profitability, surpassing ₹220 billion and ₹20 billion respectively, solidifying its position as both the largest and most profitable company in the electrical industry.
The wires & cables industry accounts for 40-45% of the electrical equipment industry with a market size of ~₹50,000 crores, demonstrating double-digit growth over the last decade driven by electrification and infrastructure development. This provides strong sectoral tailwinds for sustained growth.
Polycab plans to maintain capex levels between ₹10-11 billion annually over the next three years, positioning the company for sustained growth and market leadership. The Power Ministry's ₹2,440 billion plan to build over 50,000 km of transmission lines for renewable capacity evacuation provides massive growth opportunities.
Operating margin resilience demonstrated through 47.2% YoY operating profit growth despite seasonal revenue patterns, showcasing superior operational efficiency. The company's focus on infrastructure projects, real estate expansion, and export markets drives consistent revenue diversification.
India's electric wire and cable market is projected to grow by USD 2.14 billion (2024-2028), driven by infrastructure development, energy demands, and digitization, with Polycab well-positioned as a market leader. Strategic expansion in renewable energy transmission and distribution sectors aligns with India's green energy transition.
Conclusion
Polycab India's outstanding 49.3% YoY PAT growth and 25.7% revenue surge in Q1 FY26 validates its return to the critical 7,300-7,600 supply zone, creating compelling technical and fundamental convergence. The company's market leadership position, record profitability, and strong sectoral tailwinds from India's infrastructure boom and renewable energy transition provide robust backing for sustained growth. Critical resistance at ₹7,600 breakout could unlock significant upside toward the ₹9,000 target zone. The stock's remarkable recovery from ₹4,500 lows to current levels demonstrates strong underlying business fundamentals supporting the technical rally.
Disclaimer: tinyurl.com
Gold Hits New Record: Should You Buy or Sell in This Hot Market?Namaste traders,
This past week, gold surprised everyone by closing strong. On Friday (19/09), it moved higher again, marking its 5th consecutive weekly gain at $3,683.24/oz, while futures touched $3,718.50/oz. This surge followed the Fed’s rate cut, which many thought would cool the yellow metal. So, is this a genuine rally or just a bull trap?
Fundamentals: Rate Cut Pushes Gold Higher
Lower interest rates reduce the cost of holding gold.
Fed’s dovish signals raised expectations for more easing.
In India, physical gold demand is at a 10-month high, while China also shows strong appetite despite higher prices.
Technical Outlook
Gold broke its downward trendline, signaling bullish continuation. Buyers are in control.
This Week’s View: Focus on buying near-term targets at $372x and $373x, but stay alert to macro news.
Trading Setups (with strict risk management):
Buy Scalp: $3671–$3669 | SL: $3666 | TP: $3674–$3694
Buy Zone: $3657–$3659 | SL: $3647 | TP: $3669–$3709
Sell Scalp: $3713–$3715 | SL: $3719 | TP: $3705–$3785
Sell Zone: $3731–$3733 | SL: $3741 | TP: $3723–$3683
Will gold shine brighter and set another all-time high? Share your view! 👇
Part 8 Trading Master Class1. Introduction to Option Trading
Financial markets are constantly evolving, offering traders and investors a wide variety of tools to manage risk, speculate on price movements, or generate income. One of the most fascinating and versatile financial instruments is the option.
Unlike buying a share of a company directly, which gives you ownership, an option gives you rights, not obligations. This small distinction makes options powerful. They can amplify profits, reduce risks, and allow traders to play multiple angles of the market.
Option trading might sound complicated at first, but once you understand the foundation, it’s like learning a new language – everything starts connecting.
2. The Basics: What Are Options?
An option is a contract between two parties – a buyer and a seller – that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a set time frame.
The underlying asset could be a stock, an index, a commodity (like gold or crude oil), or even currencies.
The predetermined price is called the strike price.
The time frame is defined by the expiry date.
In simple words:
Options are like a reservation ticket. You pay a small amount now (premium) to lock in the ability to buy/sell later, but you don’t have to use it if you don’t want to.
3. Types of Options: Call and Put
There are two main types:
Call Option: Gives the buyer the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price.
Example: You buy a call option for Reliance at ₹2500. If Reliance goes to ₹2700, you can still buy it at ₹2500, making profit.
Put Option: Gives the buyer the right to sell the underlying asset at the strike price.
Example: You buy a put option for Infosys at ₹1500. If Infosys falls to ₹1300, you can still sell it at ₹1500.
Think of calls as a bet on prices going up, and puts as a bet on prices going down.
4. Key Terminologies in Options
To understand option trading, you must master its unique vocabulary:
Strike Price: The pre-agreed price at which you can buy/sell the underlying.
Expiry Date: The date on which the option contract expires.
Premium: The price you pay to buy the option.
In-the-Money (ITM): Option has intrinsic value. (E.g., stock is above strike for calls, below strike for puts).
Out-of-the-Money (OTM): Option has no intrinsic value.
At-the-Money (ATM): Stock price and strike price are nearly the same.
Option Writer: The seller of the option, who takes the opposite side.
Lot Size: The minimum quantity you can trade in an option contract.
SBI: Strong Q1 Performance Breaks Key Resistance🔍 Technical Analysis
State Bank of India has demonstrated impressive technical progression with a super bullish rally that culminated in creating an All-Time High of ₹912 in June 2024. This historic peak marked the zenith of a remarkable multi-year uptrend that established SBI as one of the top-performing banking stocks.
However, from the ATH levels, the stock entered a corrective phase, continuously falling while creating lower highs - a classic bearish pattern that concerned many investors. The recent lower high was formed at ₹840, which acted as formidable resistance multiple times, creating a critical supply zone that tested the stock's recovery momentum.
The game-changing catalyst arrived with the announcement of strong Q1 FY26 results, showcasing record profitability and robust operational metrics. These stellar quarterly numbers provided the momentum needed to finally break above the stubborn ₹840 resistance level on September 17th, 2025, with strong volume confirmation.
Currently trading at ₹862, the stock has successfully conquered the ₹840 resistance zone that had been acting as a ceiling for months. If this breakout sustains and the previous resistance transforms into robust support, the technical setup appears highly favorable for the next leg of rally toward the ATH levels.
Entry Strategy: Enter on any dips toward ₹840-850 range, ensuring the old resistance holds as new support with volume confirmation.
🎯 Targets:
Target 1: ₹880
Target 2: ₹900
Target 3: ₹920
🚫 Stop Losses:
Critical Stop: ₹840 (previous resistance, now key support)
If market doesn't sustain above ₹840 levels, no more expectations on this stock.
💰 Q1 FY26 Financial Highlights (vs Q4 FY25 & Q1 FY25)
Total Income: ₹1,25,729 Cr (↓ -1.0% QoQ from ₹1,26,997 Cr; ↑ +6.3% YoY from ₹1,18,242 Cr)
Total Interest: ₹78,266 Cr (↑ +0.05% QoQ from ₹78,227 Cr; ↑ +9.2% YoY from ₹71,701 Cr)
Total Expenses: ₹59,496 Cr (↓ -20.1% QoQ from ₹74,438 Cr; ↑ +10.2% YoY from ₹53,996 Cr)
Operating Profit: ₹-12,034 Cr (Better QoQ from ₹-25,668 Cr; Improved YoY from ₹-7,455 Cr)
Profit Before Tax: ₹29,229 Cr (↑ +8.7% QoQ from ₹26,897 Cr; ↑ +10.6% YoY from ₹26,428 Cr)
Profit After Tax: ₹22,121 Cr (↑ +8.5% QoQ from ₹20,379 Cr; ↑ +10.1% YoY from ₹20,094 Cr)
Diluted EPS: ₹23.76 (↑ +8.2% QoQ from ₹21.96; ↑ +9.7% YoY from ₹21.65)
🧠 Fundamental Highlights
State Bank of India delivered exceptional Q1 FY26 performance with PAT surging 10.1% YoY to ₹22,121 crore, demonstrating remarkable resilience and operational excellence. SBI remained the top performer among PSBs, contributing 43% of total Q1 earnings with net profit of ₹19,160 crore, marking a 15% YoY increase, solidifying its position as India's most profitable bank.
Public sector banks collectively posted record profit of ₹44,218 crore in Q1 FY26, with SBI leading this historic performance, reflecting the banking sector's robust health and SBI's dominant market position. Market cap stands at ₹7,95,909 crore (up 9.17% in 1 year) with stable fundamentals supporting long-term growth.
SBI's loan portfolio grew 11.61% YoY to ₹42.5 lakh crore, with retail and SME segments outperforming, demonstrating strong credit demand across sectors. The bank's diversified loan book provides stability while capturing high-growth opportunities in priority sector lending.
SBI reported net profit of ₹212.01 billion for Q1 FY26, up 9.7% YoY, maintaining its position as India's largest lender. This consistent profitability growth validates the bank's strategic focus on operational efficiency and risk management excellence.
With resilient economic activity, credit demand remained strong with advances growing 15.24% to ₹37.68 lakh crore in FY2024, positioning SBI to capitalize on India's economic expansion and infrastructure development boom.
Public sector banks show stable credit growth of 12.2% in FY25, with SBI leading the charge in capturing market share through competitive pricing and superior customer service. Operating expenses were well-managed through improved operating leverage and digital transformation initiatives.
The banking sector benefits from strong economic growth, rising disposable incomes, increasing consumerism and digital adoption driving transformation in 2025. SBI's report anticipates loan to GDP ratio increasing from 1.2 in FY23 to 1.7 in FY24, guaranteeing prolonged GDP expansion.
Cost management excellence reflected in controlled expense growth while revenue maintained steady levels, showcasing operational leverage benefits. Strong asset quality metrics and improved NIMs position SBI for sustained profitability growth in the evolving banking landscape.
✅ Conclusion
State Bank of India's outstanding 10.1% YoY PAT growth and successful breakout above ₹840 resistance creates compelling technical and fundamental convergence. The bank's market leadership position, record Q1 profitability contributing 43% of total PSB earnings, and strong sectoral tailwinds from India's economic growth provide robust backing for sustained rally. Critical support at ₹840 breakout level must sustain for continued bullish momentum toward the ₹920 target zone. As India's largest and most profitable bank, SBI remains well-positioned to capitalize on the credit growth cycle and digital banking revolution.
BTCUSD 3R Sell side trade BTCUSD is forming sell side trade as current bias and draw on liquidity both are at down side. Price has also left SIBIs to attract price upside for a while and then return back to target. In weekend price may have low volatility and trade possibly generate on Monday or later.
1. There is a 4H time frame bearish FVG.
2. There is bearish FVG in 1H and 30m overlapping with 4H FVG. Now price is approaching it slowly.
3. These FVGs are forming inside Fib golden zone.
4. Order flow is bearish. And draw on liquidity is also at downside.
5. Most probably price will take liquidity of FVGs and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF.
6. Price should show rejection/reversal in LTF (5m,1m) at FVG zone.
All these combinations are signalling a high probability and 3R trade scenario.
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Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share.
Disclaimer – This analysis is just for education purpose not any trading suggestion. Please take the trade at your own risk and with the discussion with your financial advisor.
Part 4 Learn Institutional Trading1. Uses of Options
Options trading is not just speculation; it serves multiple purposes:
Hedging (Risk Management):
Investors use options to protect against unfavorable price movements.
Example: A stock investor buys a put option to limit losses if the stock price drops.
Speculation:
Traders use options to bet on price direction with limited capital and potentially high returns.
Income Generation:
Selling options (writing calls or puts) can generate consistent income through premiums.
Covered calls are a popular income strategy where you hold the stock and sell a call option against it.
Arbitrage Opportunities:
Advanced traders exploit mispricing between options and underlying assets to make risk-free profits.
2. Option Strategies
Options provide flexibility through a variety of strategies, which range from simple to highly complex:
Basic Strategies
Long Call: Buy call option anticipating price increase.
Long Put: Buy put option anticipating price decrease.
Covered Call: Hold stock and sell a call to earn premium.
Protective Put: Buy a put for stock you own to limit downside risk.
Intermediate Strategies
Straddle: Buy call and put at the same strike and expiry to profit from volatility.
Strangle: Buy call and put with different strikes to benefit from large price moves.
Bull Spread: Combine two calls (different strikes) to profit from moderate upward movement.
Bear Spread: Combine two puts to profit from moderate downward movement.
Advanced Strategies
Butterfly Spread: Limit risk and reward for minimal cost, suitable for low volatility expectations.
Iron Condor: Sell an out-of-the-money call and put while buying further out-of-the-money options to cap risk.
Calendar Spread: Exploit differences in time decay by trading options with the same strike but different expiries.
3. Greeks in Options Trading
Options traders use Greeks to measure sensitivity of option prices to different variables:
Delta: Measures price change in option relative to underlying asset.
Gamma: Measures change in delta as asset price changes.
Theta: Measures time decay of the option’s premium.
Vega: Measures sensitivity to volatility.
Rho: Measures sensitivity to interest rates.
Understanding Greeks helps traders manage risk, hedge positions, and optimize strategies.
4. Risks in Options Trading
Options trading carries significant risk, especially for sellers/writers:
For Buyers:
Risk limited to premium paid.
Potential for total loss if option expires worthless.
For Sellers:
Risk can be unlimited for uncovered (naked) options.
Margin requirements can be high.
Time Decay Risk:
Options lose value as expiry approaches, especially OTM options.
Volatility Risk:
Unexpected changes in market volatility can affect option premiums dramatically.
Proper risk management, position sizing, and understanding of market conditions are crucial.
5. Practical Tips for Options Trading
Start Small: Begin with a few contracts until you understand mechanics and risk.
Focus on Liquid Options: Trade options with high volume to ensure tight spreads and easy entry/exit.
Use Stop-Loss: Protect capital by predefining risk limits.
Understand Time Decay: Avoid holding OTM options for too long without movement in underlying.
Diversify Strategies: Combine hedging, speculation, and income strategies.
XAU/USD – Captain Vincent Weekly Plan🔎 Captain’s Log – Context
📈 Main Trend : Strong uptrend after BoS.
📊 Price moving sideways within the rising channel, staying below Weak High 3674 .
📌 EMA 50 > EMA 200 → bullish trend remains solid.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Golden Harbor (BUY – Main Priority)
🎯 Entry:
FVG Dock: 3602 – 3593
FVG Deep: 3567 – 3560
OB Harbor: 3535 – 3540
⛔ SL: below 3520
✅ TP1: 3674 (sweep Weak High)
✅ TP2: 3720 – 3740
2️⃣ Quick Boarding (Short-term SELL – Counter-trend)
Condition: If price breaks 3674 first → watch for false break.
🎯 Entry: 3670 – 3680
✅ TP: back to 3602 – 3567
⚠️ Note : scalp only, don’t hold long.
3️⃣ Storm Breaker Alert (Bearish Scenario)
If 3535 breaks → short-term uptrend invalidated.
🎯 Bearish target: 3480 – 3500
Captain’s Note ⚓
“The golden sail still catches the wind after BoS, leading the captain and crew on the bullish tide. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3593 – 3560 – 3535) remains the preferred docking point to load cargo and continue the voyage. Quick Boarding 🚤 at Storm Breaker 🌊 (3670 – 3680) is only a short ride when the ship sweeps liquidity at Weak High 3674 . Should 3535 break, the ship might be dragged toward 3480 – 3500, but as long as it anchors at Golden Harbor, the grand journey still heads north toward 3720+.”
Sagility Breakout Technical AnalysisThe chart of Sagility Limited on the NSE reveals a technically rich setup with several key signals. Here's a breakdown of what it indicates:
📉 Trend Analysis
- Descending Trendline: The stock has been forming lower highs, suggesting a downtrend or bearish sentiment.
- Current Price: ₹45.60, down 1.40% on the day—still trading below key resistance levels.
🔍 Fibonacci Retracement
- Levels like 0.236, 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786 are plotted.
- These help identify potential reversal zones. If price breaks above the 0.382 or 0.5 level, it could signal a bullish retracement.
🟩🟥 Support & Resistance Zones
- Green shaded areas: Strong support zones where buyers may step in.
- Red shaded areas: Resistance zones where selling pressure could emerge.
- Price is currently hovering near a support zone—watch for a bounce or breakdown.
📊 Volume & Momentum
- Volume bars show moderate activity, but no major spikes—suggesting consolidation.
- The green line (likely a moving average) is sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish bias unless price crosses above it.
🟢🔴 Buy/Sell Signals
- Recent “Sell” signal near the descending trendline confirms weakness.
- Previous “Buy” signals occurred near support zones—if price approaches those again, it may offer a short-term opportunity.
🧠 What to Watch For
- Breakout above the descending trendline: Could trigger bullish momentum.
- Breakdown below support: May lead to further downside.
- Volume confirmation: A spike in volume with price movement adds conviction
🧠 Strategic Takeaways
- Bullish bias only above ₹47.25 with confirmation.
- Bearish continuation if ₹42.625 breaks.
- Gann levels align well with Fibonacci zones—giving confluence