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Trendchannels

Nifty Analysis: May2023Let’s quickly start this analysis from June 22 lows. Weekly Chart There is a clear A-B-C type corrective pattern which tested into previous highs of Oct 2021. I was expecting some support build up near 18000 levels (for the trend to resume on the upside) in Dec 2022 but that did not happen, and the market just drifted lower and lower to previous support area around B. Currently it is again bouncing hard towards the prior swing high A. From this structure it seems market is in a mood to trap more buyers on the upside before losing strength for new lows below B (continuing a potential H&S). But is that really true? Let’s get down to the daily time frame (left chart) and find out. Daily Chart We can see a corrective LH-LL structure which is still intact as per my understanding. I won’t consider Feb 2023 lows as a lower low (because of poor thrust below Jan 2023 lows). This is why the Feb swing high (18135 or so) would remain a LH in the trend channel. Also visible in the chart is a sharp rally from Mar 2023 lows, an Inverted Head & Shoulder pattern and a break of its neckline above 17800 zone, good omen for the buyers. But remember that lower high is still intact. Looking at the price behavior of this rally, it is totally agreeable that there is a potential for shift in structure (for uptrend) with a close above 18135 this week. Now the question is that whether the higher timeframe weakness with an ABC corrective and a potential Head & Shoulder pattern would prevail over the strength on the lower timeframe chart? The answer is that its difficult to predict with 100% accuracy. But one thing that can be done confidently is to manage your trades properly. For short-term trading I would say that booking some profit (if bought near the lows) is definitely an option. Reaction from previous resistance areas is a time-tested behavior, so one can always trail and lock profits in case of doubt. For this trend to continue on the upside, any test of 17800 has to hold. A failure of this level may put this trend in jeopardy. Similar lines can be seen in Oct2021 to June2022 correction. So the conclusion is to book a little if you want and lock the rest with trail below 17800. Any new buying at this point would remain a question mark. Thanks for reading. Do hit the boost button for more ideas in future. Disclaimer: All the views above are personal only and not an investment or trading advice. So you will have to apply your due diligence.
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BEST PLACES TO LOOK FOR HIGH PROBABILITY TRADESHere are a few setups that I use in my day to day trading. They work well in all the timeframes and in all types of markets. I am only showing bullish scenarios due to space constraint but one may also look for bearish scenarios which work in the same manner. Like Down trendline or Downward sloping channel; downward sloping MA; breakdown of a range; and price retracement back up to 50% of the down move. Sometimes these setups also work in collaboration with each other. Like price pulls back to the MA and this level also coincides with a potential support zone or this level is also the 50% retracement of the prior up move. In these cases the trading opportunity will have very high probability to make money. Are you still thinking that what patterns to look for at those places to take trades? Please refer my previous idea tagged to this post. Just look for those candlestick patterns as your trigger and you are good to go. I hope this post will add to your knowledge and don't forget to like and comment to encourage further writing. Regards JJSingh
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