NIFTY MIDCAPNIFTY MIDCAP formed with DOUBLE TOP with DIVERGENCE with first target 14,403, and next support at 13,995. If it didn't take supports at 13,995 we can see further downside with FINAL TRAGET 13,900.
Trendpattern
XAUUSD – H4 Trend Structure Awaiting BreakoutXAUUSD – H4 Trend Structure Awaiting Breakout
Brian – Strategy to Buy on Pullback in Uptrend Channel
I. Strategy Summary
Gold continues its uptrend on H4, supported by the upward trendline from the 3,880–3,900 region.
The price is testing the resistance zone of 4,133–4,150, coinciding with the H4 supply and descending trendline, making short-term corrections likely.
Main strategy: wait for a pullback to support/FVG to buy with the trend, avoid FOMO buying at resistance.
Key levels to note: closing below 4,000 weakens the uptrend structure; below 3,884 risks shifting to a medium-term downtrend.
II. Macro Context
Unemployment Claims (weekly unemployment benefits):
Forecast: 226K
Previous: 220K
Higher-than-expected figures → indicate a weakening labor market, cooling economy, increasing the likelihood of the Fed easing sooner → real yields decrease, supporting gold.
Better-than-expected figures (lower than forecast) → support USD and bond yields, potentially causing short-term pressure on gold.
Geopolitical:
Trump's statement on easing "deadline" pressure for Russia–Ukraine negotiations ("the deadline will be when the issue is resolved") helps the market worry less about a hard deadline, but conflict risks remain. The demand for gold as a safe haven remains stable, not overly inflated but also unlikely to disappear entirely.
III. Fundamental Picture
Expectations for a rate cut cycle in 2025 continue to support gold as the market gradually prices in lower real interest rates in the medium to long term.
The demand for holding defensive assets persists amid slowing global growth and unresolved geopolitical hotspots.
In the short term, USD and US bond yields remain the two leading variables; any USD recovery can pull gold back to technical support areas, creating opportunities for buy-on-dip strategies.
IV. Technical Structure – H4 Trend Channel & FVG Zone
On H4, the price is moving within an uptrend channel, with the support trendline respected multiple times since the end of last month.
Above is the descending trendline connecting the nearest peaks, creating a price compression zone as the market approaches the 4,133–4,150 area. This is a confluence resistance zone:
The nearest swing high.
H4 supply zone.
Intersection with the descending trendline.
Notable price zones:
Resistance: 4,133–4,150 – a zone that may trigger short-term profit-taking and create a correction.
Near support/FVG: 4,078–4,080 – FVG zone combined with support after the previous breakout.
Psychological support: 4,000 – if H4 closes below this area, the uptrend structure weakens.
Medium-term reversal level: 3,884 – closing below here opens the risk of shifting entirely to a medium-term downtrend.
V. Trading Plan
Scenario 1 – Buy with the Trend (Priority)
Idea: wait for a shallow pullback to near support in the H4 uptrend channel and then buy.
Entry: 4,111–4,114
SL: 4,005
TP: 4,133 – 4,150 – 4,172 – 4,190
Scenario 2 – Buy Deep at FVG Zone
Idea: if a stronger pullback to FVG 4,078–4,080 occurs, take advantage of the good price zone to buy.
Entry: 4,078–4,080
SL: 4,073
TP: 4,100 – 4,115 – 4,142
VI. Risk Management & Notes
Limit opening new orders at the time of Unemployment Claims announcement due to potential volatility and spread widening.
If H4 closes below 4,000, reassess all current buy positions.
If H4/Daily closes below 3,884, consider the medium-term uptrend structure broken; prioritize staying out to observe or wait for a new downtrend scenario instead of continuing to look for buying points.
Bitcoin's Death Cross is Here: A crash with a message to all!BITSTAMP:BTCUSD has just delivered one of its most significant reality ✔ checks of the year — the recent crash wasn’t simply a dip; it was a multi-layered market unwind that exposes the current fragility of the crypto ecosystem.
📉 Current Bitcoin Situation: “From Euphoria to Uncertainty”
Bitcoin’s trend shifted rapidly over the past few weeks.
Spot ETFs that once fueled relentless upside have significantly slowed inflows, with some days printing net outflows as retail enthusiasm cooled and institutions trimmed exposure.
Meanwhile:
Over billions in long liquidations hit in some days.
Funding flipped aggressively negative
Sentiment turned from greed → hesitation
High beta alts saw steeper collapses, showing risk-off behavior
This wasn’t random volatility — it was a controlled flush triggered by structural weakness.
🔥 Why Bitcoin Crashed: The Real Story
🔹 Technical Factors
BTC lost a major support cluster after multiple failed attempts to hold the mid-range.
Open interest was overheated, creating the perfect setup for a liquidation cascade.
Price rejected sharply from a supply zone that aligns with the weekly imbalance.
☠️ Death Cross on Daily Time Frame: Now Confirmed
The 50 SMA crossing below the 200 SMA is not a “doom event” by itself…
But historically, Bitcoin rarely ignores this signal, especially when paired with weakening momentum and fading liquidity.
⚠ The last major Death Cross?
2022’s brutal bear continuation, which led to several months of grinding downside before any meaningful reversal.
The current structure looks uncomfortably similar:
Lower highs printing consistently
Loss of trend strength
Distribution patterns on higher time frames
Declining demand from smart money inflows
This isn’t fearmongering — it’s observation.
🔹 Fundamental + Macro Factors
ETF inflow cooldown = reduced demand pressure
Miners started selling into strength to stabilize income post-difficulty adjustment
Global markets leaned risk-off due to macro tightening
Whales began distributing quietly (confirmed by on-chain inflow spikes into exchanges)
When technical fragility meets fundamental slowdown, crashes are not accidents — they’re consequences.
🐋 Whales Are Selling: “When the quiet money moves, the market reacts loud.”
On-chain data over the last week showed:
Increase in exchange inflows from large wallets
Spot distribution from old long-term holders
ETF issuers are reducing inventory during downswings
This behavior is classic:
Whales distribute during periods of retail excitement…
Retail panics during whale exits…
And the crash becomes a self-fulfilling cycle.
📅 4–6 Week Forecast: “Chop, Pain & Opportunity”
Over the next month or so, the market will likely experience:
Sideways-to-down structure
Failed rally attempts near the 50 SMA
Whip-saw price action due to low conviction
Accumulation pockets are forming quietly
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD needs to reclaim the 50 SMA with strength before a clean trend resumes.
Until then, volatility ≠ strength.
🎯 Conclusion: Re-Investment Zones & Smart Accumulation
Crashes are emotional for most, but strategic for the prepared.
This is not a call to rush.
It’s a reminder:
Smart money enters when sentiment collapses.
Dumb money enters when sentiment peaks.
Analyze. Prepare. Don’t chase.
🧩 Comment down below 👇 and let’s talk about how to overcome it — build awareness together as traders, not competitors.
If this Idea gave you valuable information, then please boost it, and follow for more practical trading!
Happy Trading & Investing!
Team @TradeWithKeshhav ⚡
Gold is compressed; next week’s US data will pick a side.Gold is being compressed, the upcoming US data week will determine which side is squeezed.
Good evening everyone, Brian here with a view on XAUUSD on the H2 and H4 frames for the upcoming week.
Fundamental Analysis – a "tailor-made" week for the USD
Next week is packed with US data, meaning gold will react more to numbers than narratives:
Core PPI, PPI, and Retail Sales
Initial Unemployment Claims
Prelim GDP q/q
Core PCE Price Index m/m – the Fed's preferred inflation measure
If inflation and growth come out weak, the market will lean more towards the slow growth / easing policy narrative. This usually puts pressure on the USD and supports gold, especially when real yields gradually decrease.
Conversely, stronger-than-expected data will strengthen the USD, increase yields, and create short-term downward pressure on gold. In such a context, price and liquidity areas around news release times will be more important than usual – typically, fading emotional spikes back to structural areas is safer than chasing the initial move.
Technical Analysis – triangle, FVG, and key support areas
On the H4 frame, gold is still trading within a broad triangle structure. The previous decline has stalled, with prices continuously reacting at the upward support line and around 4,000, but there has yet to be a clear breakout from the pattern.
When zooming into H1–H2:
The price has broken a short-term downtrend line and closed strongly above – this is an early signal that selling pressure in this move is weakening.
The nearest support is around 4050–4040, deeper is the 4000–3998 support band (marked on the chart as important support). As long as it holds above 4,000, the structure remains positive.
Above, we have a very important confluence area around 4135–4160 including:
Fibo 0.382 of the most recent main decline
An old fair value gap (FVG) and resistance block
Chart note: "Gold will go strong if it passes this price range" – aligns with my view: if the price accepts above this area, the potential for a stronger upward move will open up.
Around 4100 is an area prone to "large liquidity response" – expect strong profit-taking and position restructuring if the price returns to this area.
Currently, I consider the market to be accumulating above 4,000 in a corrective pattern, with a slight upward bias as long as 4,000 is maintained.
Key Price Areas
Resistance:
4100 – first liquidity area
4135–4160 – Fibo 0.382 + FVG + strong resistance
Support:
4050–4040 – nearest intraday support
4000–3998 – large frame support; if broken, the picture changes
3940 area – stronger support if 4k is breached
Trading Scenarios for Next Week
(All are for reference only, not investment advice.)
Scenario 1 – Buy when price corrects above 4,000 (foundation for the next upward wave)
Idea: follow the forming upward bias as the price respects the triangle support and the 4,000 mark.
Entry area: 4050–4040 or any clean retest of the broken downtrend line on smaller frames
Cautious position addition area: 4025–4005 if there is a deep sweep to 4,000 with a strong bounce reaction
Stop loss: below 3990–3988 depending on risk appetite
Targets:
First: 4100 (liquidity area)
Second: 4135–4140 (lower edge of FVG/resistance)
Extended: 4155–4160 if a strong continuation move appears
Signals to wait for: wick rejections from support, bullish engulfing candles, or clear intraday structural phase shifts to higher highs and lows.
Scenario 2 – Break & Retest Long above 4135–4140
If the price doesn't give a deep correction and runs straight up:
Condition: H2/H4 candle closes clearly above 4135–4140 and holds on retest
Entry: when price pulls back in a controlled manner to the 4135–4140 area, turning this area from resistance to support
SL: below 4120
TP: 4180 → 4200+ depending on momentum strength
This is the "gold goes strong" scenario as noted on the chart – viewing the FVG/0.382 area as a launchpad for a larger impulsive upward wave.
Scenario 3 – Bearish scenario if 4,000 is broken
If fundamentals and flows turn against gold, decisively pushing the price below 4,000, the bullish view needs to be set aside.
Condition: daily candle closes clearly below 4000–3998
Plan: wait for the price to retrace up to retest 4000–4020 from below
Entry: short when rejection signals appear at that retest area
TP: 3960 → 3940, then reassess the structure
When below 4,000, the triangle will break down, and the market is likely to hunt deeper liquidity areas before potentially forming a new medium-term upward wave.
In summary: as long as 4,000 holds, I prioritize the buy scenario on corrections, respecting the upward potential to 4135–4160 and beyond. If there is a decisive break below 4,000, the picture will reverse – then retracements up will be opportunities to look for shorts.
Trade according to what the structure shows, not what I hope for. Manage risk tightly around next week's data points and let the major price areas "do the heavy lifting."
If this perspective helps you plan better, don't forget to follow Brian for weekly gold analysis and share your scenarios in the comments to compare.
STRK Wait & Watch Situation BINANCE:STRKUSDT
Trend after retracement but retracement looks weak because price break already breaks major support, but candle is not closed so, confirmation is still pending.
4H chart show channel breaks down.
That also show negativity but still day time frame is running
🧠 Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research)
⚖️ This is not financial advice or suggestion
👉 “Risk Is Real 💸 Stay Practical🚀”
💬 Please feel free to ask any questions (It's Free)
Cholamandalam Financial Holdings Ltd (CFHL) Triangle Breakout 1DCholamandalam Financial Holdings Ltd (CFHL) – Triangle Breakout & 1-Year Resistance Breakout 🚀
📊 Technical View:
CFHL has given a triangle breakout along with a 1-year resistance breakout, indicating strong bullish momentum. If Trend continues, The price action also shows a successful retest of the breakout zone, shows trend continuation.
Resistance Turned Support: ₹1650 – previously a resistance, now acting as strong support.
Current Action: Price broke above the ₹1650 range, retested the level today , and is now moving upward again.
Next Resistance Targets Levels: ₹1824 / ₹2004
Support Levels: ₹1536 / ₹1410
🏦 Company Overview:
Cholamandalam Financial Holdings Limited (CFHL), incorporated in 1949, is a part of the Murugappa Group, one of India’s most diversified business conglomerates.
CFHL is a Non-Deposit Taking Systemically Important Core Investment Company (CIC) registered with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
The company holds substantial investments in group companies and provides a diverse range of financial products and risk management services to individual and corporate clients through its subsidiaries and group companies.
📈 For educational purpose only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
US30 | 4H–15M Bearish Confluence SetupPrice has displayed a Change of Character (ChoCH) on the 4-hour timeframe, breaking the existing bullish trendline and leaving behind a 4H imbalance. This shift indicates potential weakness in the prevailing bullish structure.
I’ll be waiting for price to retrace into the 4H imbalance zone and establish a bearish Change of Character on the 15-minute timeframe, ideally accompanied by the formation of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) or minor imbalance.
Once the 15M imbalance is retested and a bearish candlestick pattern confirms order flow alignment, a short position can be considered after a break below the low of that bearish pattern.
This setup aligns multiple timeframe confluences, reflecting a potential shift in market structure from bullish to bearish.
NIFTY 50 – Bullish Flag Formation | Continuation Pattern in PlayNIFTY 50 is currently forming a bullish flag pattern on the lower timeframe after a strong impulsive move to the upside.
This consolidation phase represents a healthy correction within an uptrend , indicating that bulls are likely preparing for the next breakout leg .
The structure is showing a clear flag channel , where price is respecting parallel trendlines after the strong upward impulse.
Volume is also contracting during the pullback — a typical characteristic of a flag pattern.
Key Highlights:
🚀 Strong impulsive move followed by tight consolidation (flag).
📉 Flag resistance zone: 25,130 – 25,170
📈 Breakout above this zone could trigger bullish continuation toward 25,300 – 25,400.
⚠️ Invalid if price breaks below 25,050 with strong momentum.
Trading Idea:
Wait for a clean breakout candle above the flag resistance with volume confirmation for potential long entries.
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%DON’T HAVE TIME TO MANAGE YOUR TRADES?
- Take BTST trades at 3:25 pm every day
- Try to exit by taking 4-7% profit of each trade
- SL can also be maintained as closing below the low of the breakout candle
Now, why do I prefer BTST over swing trades? The primary reason is that I have observed that 90% of the stocks give most of the movement in just 1-2 days and the rest of the time they either consolidate or fall
Resistance Breakout in MBLINFRA
BUY TODAY SELL TOMORROW for 5%
Study & Analysis: Bullish Setup in SJVN (NSE)SJVN Ltd. is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal after taking support at the lower boundary of an ascending channel. The stock has formed a consistent pattern of higher lows and is currently trading at ₹94.55 with increasing volume and positive momentum on key indicators.
✅ Key Technical Highlights:
📈 Chart Pattern:
Trading within a well-defined ascending channel.
Recently bounced off the channel support line (third touch confirmation).
Next resistance zone lies near ₹101.67, which aligns with the upper trendline and horizontal supply zone.
📊 Indicators:
RSI Divergence: Bullish divergence seen — RSI made a higher low while price made a lower low, signaling potential reversal.
MACD Bullish Crossover: MACD line has crossed above the signal line near oversold levels — historically a strong bullish sign.
Volume: Notable volume spike observed at support — indicating accumulation.
📏 Risk-Reward Zone (For Study Purposes Only):
Entry Zone: ₹93–₹95
Target: ₹101–₹102
Stop Loss: Below ₹91.97
⚠️ Note:
This post is purely for educational and analysis purposes only. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.
Nifty 50 Index 24579.60 by Daily Chart viewNifty 50 Index 24579.60 by Daily Chart view
- Nifty Gap Up Opening of 18-August-2025 has got filled in
- Bearish Double Top instigated Nifty Index for the downfall trend
- Resistance Zone 25050 to 25350 for Nifty 50 Index levels acting firmly, for well over a year
- Support Zone at 24350 to 24600 for Nifty 50 Index levels has stood the ground strongly, well over a year
- Bullish "W" pattern observed in the making process with a repeat Bullish Double Bottom hence can we hope to foresee a Resistance Zone Breakout ???
Flexing at All Time HighGrasim broke a cup & handle pattern and came down, again trying to break another trendline at top of the cup & handle pattern. if it breaks and sustain above the latest breakout with good volume, it'll move up for sure.
***This is only for educational purposes***
USDCAD – Bearish Trade Setup (1H Timeframe)Trade Details
Entry: 1.38469
Stop Loss: 1.38845
Target: 1.37977
🔹 Technical Reasons for Bearish Bias
Trendline Breakdown
Price recently broke below the rising trendline, indicating that the bullish momentum has weakened.
The failed retest of the broken trendline confirms bearish pressure.
Moving Averages Confirmation
The short-term moving averages (yellow lines) have crossed to the downside, aligning with bearish sentiment.
Price is trading below these moving averages, signaling sellers are in control.
Lower High Formation
After the sharp drop, the latest pullback failed to make a new higher high.
This indicates a shift from bullish structure to a bearish lower-high pattern.
Weak Recovery Attempt
The rebound after the drop is shallow and lacks strong bullish candles.
This suggests the market is unable to regain bullish momentum.
🔹 Risk Management
The Stop Loss is placed above the recent swing high (1.38845), protecting against sudden spikes.
The Target is set at 1.37977, aligning with recent support levels and offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
🔹 Trade Outlook
This setup anticipates continuation of the bearish trend after the trendline break. Unless price reclaims and sustains above 1.3885, sellers remain favored in the short term. A successful breakdown could open the way for deeper downside in USDCAD.
✅ Summary:
Bearish structure confirmed by trendline break, bearish moving average alignment, and weak recovery → Entered short at 1.38469, targeting 1.37977 with stop at 1.38845.
Bearish Trade Setup for ETH/USDOverview:
The setup for this trade is based on a bearish outlook for Ethereum (ETH) against the US Dollar (USD) on the 1-hour chart. The entry, stop loss, and take profit levels are carefully defined to provide a balanced risk-to-reward ratio. Here's why this setup is a solid trade idea:
1. Trade Entry:
Entry Price: 4574.87
The entry point is set based on a recent price retracement within the prevailing downtrend. The price has shown signs of rejection from key resistance levels, and the trade is positioned to capitalize on further downside momentum.
2. Target Price:
Target Price: 4241.87
The target level is derived from technical analysis, where price is expected to move toward previous support levels, presenting a logical exit point for profits.
3. Stop Loss:
Stop Loss Price: 4741.37
The stop loss is placed above recent swing highs, ensuring the trade has enough room to breathe while minimizing the risk of false breakouts. This level is a protective measure to ensure that a reversal or unexpected price movement does not lead to unnecessary losses.
4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio:
RRR: The trade has an acceptable risk-to-reward ratio, where the potential reward outweighs the risk by more than 1:1. This is crucial for maintaining profitability over the long term.
5. Trend Analysis:
The market is currently in a bearish phase, as seen in the price action and the overall downtrend. The setup capitalizes on this momentum with a proper risk management strategy.
The use of indicators like moving averages can further confirm the downtrend, though they are not displayed here, they should align with the bearish trend.
6. Volume Confirmation:
The volume should ideally be decreasing during the retracement phase and increase during the move towards the target price, confirming the bearish continuation.
7. Conclusion:
This trade is well-positioned to take advantage of a continuation of the bearish trend. The entry, stop loss, and target are all logically placed based on key price levels and risk management principles. As always, ensure to monitor the trade, and be ready to adjust if market conditions change unexpectedly.
Hindustan copper Trend AnalysisHindustan Copper (HINDCOPPER) - Monthly Chart : Trend Analysis-
Long-term Trend: Strong uptrend since 2020, visible with higher highs and higher lows.
Current Position: After a sharp rally to 414, the stock corrected and is now consolidating around 280.
200-Month MA (red curve): Acts as a strong long-term support trendline.
Chart Pattern👉
Cup & Handle Formation: The stock formed a long cup (2010-2020) and has broken out. Now it is forming a handle/consolidation phase.
Rising Channel: Price is moving inside an upward channel (blue lines).
Support Levels
1. 240 - Strong immediate support (monthly close basis).
2. 205 - Next strong support (channel + trendline confluence).
3. 165- Major base (only if bigger correction comes).
📈 Resistance Levels
1. 318- First hurdle (recent swing high).
2. 414- Previous top, very important resistance.
3. 513- Long-term target zone shown on your chart.
🚀 Next Big Leap🎯
If stock sustains above 318, momentum buying can take it back toward 414.
A monthly close above 414 will confirm a fresh breakout, next big target opens to 513-550 zone.
In the longer run (2-3 years), if 513 is crossed and sustained, stock could head towards 750+.
Risk Note:
Below 240 on monthly close- weakness.
Below 205- trend reversal risk (long-term investors must watch this level closely).
Summary:
Hindustan Copper is in a long-term bullish structure. It is currently consolidating in a handle phase between 240-318. A breakout above 318 can lead to a retest of 414, and then a big move towards 513+. Long-term investors should stay put as long as 205 support holds.
Disclaimer-
This analysis is only for educational and learning purposes.
It is not an investment or trading advice.
Stock market investing is risky- please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any decisions.
#StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction
Part1 Ride The Big MovesUnderstanding Greeks (The DNA of Options Pricing)
Delta – How much the option price changes per ₹1 move in stock.
Gamma – How fast delta changes.
Theta – Time decay rate.
Vega – Sensitivity to volatility changes.
Rho – Interest rate sensitivity.
Mastering the Greeks means you understand why your option is moving, not just that it’s moving.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Holding OTM options too close to expiry hoping for a miracle.
Selling naked calls without understanding unlimited risk.
Over-leveraging with too many contracts.
Ignoring commissions and slippage.
Not adjusting positions when market changes.
Hero moto corp: Long view to 5500Hero moto has given a break out from its levels of consolidation:
Next important levels on the chart can be seen as:
Support: 4350
Resistance : 4660, 5000, 5500
It's only for learning purpose.
Thanks.
HARSHA Price ActionHarsha Engineers International Ltd is trading around ₹414 as of early August 2025. The stock has seen a modest increase of about 3% over the past six months but a significant decline of roughly 23% over the past year. The 52-week price range is wide, with a low near ₹330 and a high close to ₹584, indicating notable price volatility.
Valuation-wise, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio around 35 and a price-to-book ratio near 0.33 to 3.1 depending on sources, reflecting mixed signals; the low book value multiple might suggest undervaluation relative to its assets, while the P/E suggests reasonable earnings expectations. The company has a market capitalization near ₹3,770 crore.
Financially, Harsha Engineers has delivered poor sales growth of under 10% over the past five years, which may have contributed to the recent price softness. Dividend announcements have been made recently, providing some income to shareholders. The stock’s mid-term outlook appears cautious with moderate price movement and valuation reflecting both risks from muted growth and some stability in fundamentals.
In summary, Harsha Engineers currently trades at a level indicating some undervaluation on a book value basis, but the stock price reflects concerns about slow growth and past volatility. Investors should weigh the company’s solid asset base against subdued sales growth and potential market fluctuations when considering the stock.
Sumitomo Chemical | Positional Swing Setup with Dynamic SLA strong setup is forming in Sumitomo Chemical with bullish c price action and trend indicators. Entry can be been initiated at current levels with small quantity with a stop-loss placed at ₹570 on a weekly closing basis.
No fixed targets. This is a trailing stop-loss-based position aimed at capturing a sustained trend move.
Add-on Zone: If the price retests the support near the ₹630 level (previous structure/support), more quantity will be added as part of a pyramiding strategy, provided broader market structure remains bullish.
Indicators Used for Trailing SL & Confirmation:
ADX & DI , RSI Levels
Exit Criteria:
Weekly close below ₹570 (hard stop)
Note: This is a disciplined, structure-based swing trade with optional pyramiding. Avoid impulsive exits; trail stop-losses logically based on trend indicators.
Regression channel & Harmonic pattern - Short term bearish trendObservations:
1. It is short term bearish trend as long as price holds above 24400
2. Price is below 50 DEMA
Possible Scenarios:
1. Price may attempt a mean reversion toward the median line of the channel
2. A break above could retest the 25,240–25,337 resistance zone, up move can only be considered when weekly candle will closed above that level because on weekly time frame there is 4 crows formation.
3. Harmonic patterns (1:1) suggests, the level of 24470 Support level in coming 10-15 trading days.
G G Automotive Gears Ltd One-Page Equity ResearchInvestment Thesis – BUY | Target Price ₹300 | Upside ~24%
India’s only listed pure-play traction–gear specialist with 50-year pedigree and >500 OE customers
Rail & Metro orders at record high; Indian Railways raising locomotive build plan by 27% for FY26, driving multi-year volume visibility
Successful diversification into wind-energy, mining & industrial forgings lowers cyclicality and lifts blended margins
Balance-sheet repair complete; net-debt / equity down to 0.53× vs 1.52× in FY23
Snapshot (Standalone)
CommentRevenue (₹ Cr)95.377.336%
EBITDA Margin12.7%10.0%
PAT (₹ Cr)4.431.9497%
EPS (₹)5.322.4544%
ROCE14.9%8.2%
P/E (TTM)26.5×
Market Cap₹ 241 C
Valuation & Target
We apply 32× FY26E EPS (₹9.4) – a 30% discount to peer Elecon (45×) to reflect smaller scale but superior growth trajectory.
Derived Target Price ₹300 (prior ₹241 close), implying 24% upside plus optionality from export traction gears.
Key Catalysts
Indian Railways 100% electrification → higher demand for reduction gearboxes
Metro build-out (20+ cities) – first export order executed FY24 proves capability
Unit-III & IV capacity added FY24 (+30k sq ft) unlocks 35% volume expansion without major capex
Potential government PLI scheme for rail components may grant 6% incentive on sales (not in model).
Risks to Thesis
Lumpy order inflow from Railways could stretch working capital
Alloy-steel price spikes may compress gross margin; 65% raw-material cost is steel
Customer concentration: top-three PSU units >55% of revenue
Small free float → liquidity risk in sharp market Initiate BUY with ₹300 target; accumulate on dips toward ₹220. Recommend watch on quarterly order-book disclosures for traction confirmation.
Escorts Kubota cmp 3410.90 by the Weekly Chart viewEscorts Kubota cmp 3410.90 by the Weekly Chart view
- Support Zone 3000 to 3150 Price Band
- Resistance Zone 3450 to 3600 Price Band
- 2 Bullish Rounding Bottoms done, 3rd in completion stage
- Volumes needed to push for fresh breakout across Resistance Zone
- Falling Resistance Trendline Breakout attempted by the current status
- Rising Support Trendline is well respected and sustained by price momentum
OFSS Price ActionOracle Financial Services Software Ltd (OFSS) is currently trading around ₹9,030, reflecting a volatile but active price environment. Over the past week, the stock declined by nearly 3%, but it has gained over 6% in the last month and more than 15% in the past three months. Despite this recent recovery, OFSS remains down about 29% over six months and approximately 13% over the past year.
Technically, the stock has faced strong resistance in the ₹9,060–₹9,288 range, with immediate supports at ₹8,837, ₹8,731, and ₹8,611. A close above ₹9,195 could trigger fresh buying momentum, while a sustained move below support levels may signal further downside. Options data indicates heightened volatility, with active trading in both calls and puts near the ₹8,000–₹9,500 strikes.
Fundamentally, OFSS reported a 7.4% year-on-year revenue increase in FY2025, with net income up 7.2% and a robust profit margin of 35%. The company’s earnings per share beat analyst expectations, though revenue was slightly below estimates. The dividend yield stands at a healthy 2.96%, and the company maintains a strong market capitalization above ₹77,000 crore.
Overall, OFSS is showing signs of stabilization after a sharp correction, with short-term price action suggesting a cautious but potentially positive outlook if key resistance levels are breached.
