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GBPUSD sellers keep their eyes on 1.2200 and BoE decisionGBPUSD renews a 5.5-month low while extending the previous week’s downside break of the 200-day SMA, as well as drilling the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-July upside. In doing so, the Cable pair ignores the oversold RSI (14) line while taking clues from the bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests limited downside room for the Pound Sterling. As a result, a horizontal support zone comprising multiple levels marked since early February, around 1.2200, will be the key to watch during the quote’s further downside. In a case where the pair declines below 1.2200, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and February’s low, respectively near 1.2090 and 1.1800 will be in the spotlight. That said, the 1.2000 psychological magnet may offer intermediate stops during the pair’s fall towards the 1.1800. On the contrary, a daily closing beyond the 200-day level of around 1.2435 becomes necessary for the intraday buyer’s turn. Even so, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a downward-sloping resistance line from July, close to 1.2480 and 1.2570 in that order, will be tough nuts to crack for the GBPUSD buyers before retaking control. Should the Pound Sterling remain firmer past 1.2570, May’s peak of around 1.2680 will act as the final defense of the Cable bears. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to remain bearish, unless the Bank of England (BoE) surprises, even as the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD recovery remains unconvincing ahead of UK inflationGBPUSD holds onto the recovery from an early February rebound from a three-month-old ascending support line, staying beyond the 100-day EMA to lure more bids. Adding strength to the upside bias is the upward-sloping RSI (14) line and the recently upbeat MACD signals. However, the previous support from early November, near 1.2265, acts as an immediate hurdle to challenge the bulls. Following that, a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since December, near 1.2450, appears crucial for the Cable buyers to tighten the holds, a break of which could propel prices towards May 2022 peak surrounding 1.2665. On the flip side, the 100-day EMA level surrounding 1.2040 and the 1.2000 psychological magnet challenge short-term pullbacks of the GBPUSD. That said, a clear downside break of the 1.2000 mark needs validation from the aforementioned support line from November 17, close to 1.1965 at the latest, to convince bears. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.1965, the odds of witnessing a slump towards January’s low near 1.1840 and the mid-November 2022 bottom surrounding 1.1760 can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD remains on the bear’s radar despite the latest run-up, which in turn highlights today’s UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD reverses from 200-SMA ahead of UK GDPGBPUSD pares the early-week recovery from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of January 06-23 upside while taking a U-turn from the 200-SMA hurdle. The pullback also take justifies the downbeat RSI and MACD conditions, suggesting further declines towards 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, around 1.2070 and 1.1970 in that order. It’s worth noting, however, that the GBP/USD pair’s weakness below 1.1970 will make it vulnerable to drop toward the previous monthly low of near 1.1840. Alternatively, a successful break of the aforementioned key SMA hurdle surrounding 1.2190 isn’t an open invitation to the GBPUSD buyers. That said, the 1.2200 and late January swing low around 1.2265 could challenge the Cable buyers before the three-week-old resistance line of 1.2370. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 1.2370, the two-month-long horizontal area around 1.2440-50 appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls. To sum up, GBPUSD braces for the key UK Q4 GDP which is likely to disappoint.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls need to cross 1.2450 to keep the reinsGBPUSD regains upside momentum, after a soft start to the week, as the Cable traders await the UK PMIs for January. It’s worth noting that the bullish MACD signals favor the latest upside but the RSI is nearly overbought, which in turn highlights the six-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2450. Should the firmer British activity data allow the quote to cross the 1.2450 hurdle, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its November 2022 to January 2023 moves, near 1.2650, will be in focus. It’s worth noting that the May 2022 peak surrounding 1.2660 could challenge the pair buyers afterward. Alternatively, the 1.2300 and the 1.2200 round figures could entertain the GBPUSD sellers during the pair’s pullback. However, the 1.2000 psychological magnet can restrict the Cable pair’s further downside. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.2000, the 100-EMA level surrounding 1.1980 and the monthly low of 1.1840 will gain the market’s attention as the last defense of the pair buyers. Overall, GBPUSD remains on the buyer’s radar ahead of the key UK data but the upside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD fades bounce off 100-day EMA ahead of key UK dataGBPUSD bulls are struggling to keep the reins as traders await crucial British economics scheduled during the week, starting with the UK jobs report. That being said, a retreat in the RSI and sluggish MACD joined the recent softness in prices to signal the Cable pair’s pullback towards the 1.2000 psychological magnet, a break of which could quickly drag the quote to the 100-day EMA surrounding 1.1930. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.1930, tops marked during September and October 2022, respectively around 1.1735 and 1.1645, could act as the last defense of the buyers. Alternatively, GBPUSD buyers need to cross a downward-sloping resistance line from late March 2022, close to 1.2350, to convince markets. Following that, the late 2022 peak surrounding 1.2445 might probe the bulls before directing them to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s March-September downturn, around 1.2665. Should the Cable pair remains firmer past 1.2665, multiple lows marked during early April near 1.2975 and the 1.3000 round figure might test the upside moves ahead of highlighting March 2022 peak near 1.3200. Overall, GBPUSD is at an interesting place in the chart where bulls and bears are mostly equal, which in turn highlights this week’s data for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bears prepare for fresh yearly low, 1.1620 in focusGBPUSD dropped consecutively during the last four days to approach the yearly low marked in July, before recently bouncing off towards 1.1800. The bears, however, appear more dreadful this time as the RSI has comparatively more space to hit the oversold territory than the previous south-run to refresh the multi-day low of 1.1760. That said, the 1.1760 level may test the sellers before directing them to a convergence of the three-month-old descending trend channel and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of April 25 to August 01 moves, around 1.1620. Should the quote fail to reverse from the 1.1620 support confluence, the March 2020 lows near 1.1410 will gain the market’s attention. Alternatively, recovery moves remain elusive until the quote rises back beyond June’s low of 1.1935. Following that, the 1.2000 psychological magnet could lure the buyers. It should be noted, however, that the GBPUSD run-up beyond 1.2000 will challenge the convergence of the 21 DMA and 50 DMA, around 1.2080-85, which will be crucial to watch for a short-term trend change. To sum up, GBPUSD is on the bear’s radar for a fresh yearly low as traders brace for the flash PMIs for August.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls step back from key resistance ahead of UK GDPGBPUSD retreats from the 11-week-old descending trend line as the traders await the first readings of the Q2 2022 UK GDP. In addition to the trend line hurdle, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-July downside, near 1.2345, guards the pair’s immediate upside. Following that, the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.2435 will be in focus. In a case where the quote remains strong past 1.2435, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards May’s peak of 1.2665 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, GBPUSD sellers can aim for the 21-DMA support near 1.2075 during further weakness. It’s worth noting, however, that the quote’s downside beneath 1.2075 will have the two-month-old resistance-turned-support line, around 1.1955, as the last defense for buyers. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.1955, the odds of its south-run towards the yearly low near 1.1860 can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD bulls are in the driver’s seat ahead of the key UK GDP data. It should be observed that the British economy is likely to witness recession and hence positive surprise will be welcomed with zeal considering the pre-data bullish bias.
by MTradingGlobal
3
GBPUSD buyers jostle with key resistance around 1.2030GBPUSD's rebound dribbles around a one-week high while extending Friday’s upside break of a descending resistance line from June 27, now support. The Cable pair’s recovery also takes clues from the firmer RSI and the bullish MACD signals to keep buyers hopeful. However, sustained trading beyond convergence of the 100-SMA and a downward sloping trend line from June 07, around 1.2030, becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. Should the quote manage to stay firmer past 1.2030, a run-up towards the monthly high near 1.2175 can’t be ruled out. Though, multiple hurdles stay firer to challenge the quote’s upside past 1.2175, a break of which could propel the prices towards the mid-June high near 1.2400. Meanwhile, a weekly support line, close to 1.1990, could challenge the GBPUSD sellers. Following that, the resistance-turned-support from late June and the recently flashed multi-month low, respectively around 1.1820 and 1.1775, will be in focus. It’s worth noting that the pair’s sustained downtrend below 1.1775 could make it vulnerable to slump towards March 2020 bottom close to 1.1400. Overall, GBPUSD recovery pokes the key resistance confluence as traders brace for important UK data, starting with today’s UK employment report.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bears have a bumpy road to the south at multi-month lowBe it recession fears or the UK’s political crisis, GBPUSD has to bear it all as it dropped to the lowest level since March 2020. However, the cable pair appears to have a limited downside room before hitting the key supports. That said, a nearly oversold RSI and a falling wedge bullish chart pattern near the multi-month low also tease buyers to take the risk. It should be noted, however, that a downside break of the 1.1770 mark, comprising the wedge’s support line and 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late March-May moves, will defy the bullish hopes. Following that, the 100% FE level surrounding 1.1520 may offer an intermediate halt before dragging the quote to the year 2020 bottom close to 1.1410. Meanwhile, recovery moves may initially struggle around the 61.8% FE level near 1.1950 before regaining the 1.2000 mark. Though, bulls will be interested in seeing a successful break of the 1.2100 mark as it confirms the falling wedge bullish formation. In that case, theory suggests a run-up towards the 1.2800 round figure but the 50-DMA and May’s top could challenge the buyers respectively around 1.2360 and 1.2565. Overall, GBPUSD sellers appear to have run out of steam but the bulls need validation.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls have more upside on the platterGBPUSD braces for further upside until staying beyond the 100-SMA and a three-week-old horizontal resistance, now support 1.2400. That said, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of the pair’s downside from late April to the recent lows, around 1.2515, appears short-term target for the bulls. Following that, the 1.2600 threshold and the monthly peak surrounding 1.2640 should gain the market’s attention. In a case where the cable buyers dominate past 1.2640, the 200-SMA level near 1.2700 appears a tough nut to crack. Meanwhile, further selling should wait for a clear downside break of 1.2400 to aim for the early May swing low near 1.2260. In a case where GBPUSD prices remain weak past 1.2260, the recent multi-month low close to 1.2155 will act as the last defense for the bulls. It’s worth noting that sustained trading below 1.2155 could make the quote vulnerable to a slump towards the 1.2000 psychological magnet. To sum up, GBPUSD has had enough of the south-run and hence a short-term recovery can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
Falling wedge at two-year low teases GBPUSD buyers, UK GDP eyedGBPUSD remains guarded, despite all the difficulties, ahead of the preliminary readings of UK Q1 2022 GDP. In doing so, the cable pair portrays a falling wedge bullish chart pattern at the lowest levels since June 2020. Given the likelihood of firmer UK growth numbers and anticipated positive news from Brexit, not to forget the wedge near multi-month low, the cable has brighter odds of consolidating recent losses. However, a clear upside break of 1.2415 becomes necessary to the ball rolling in favor of buyers. Following that, the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2850 may probe the theoretical upswing towards 1.3200. It’s worth noting that the 1.3000 psychological magnet and April’s high near 1.3165 can act as additional upside filters to watch. Alternatively, a disappointment may drag the quote initially towards the latest bottom near 1.2260, a break of which could propel GBPUSD prices towards the stated wedge’s support line, close to 1.2200. In a case where the cable pair remains on the back foot past-1.2200, May 2020 low around 1.2075 might test the bears on the way to the 1.2000 round figure. Overall, GBPUSD bears seem running out of steam ahead of the key UK data and the falling wedge near the two-year top appears cherry on the top. Though, it all depends upon the British GDP, which in turn requires caution on the part of buyers.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls eye 1.3700 on crossing monthly resistanceGBPUSD stays beyond a downward sloping resistance line from January 20, now support around 1.3590. Despite the recent pullback, the trend line breakout joins upbeat RSI and MACD signals to direct buyers towards the late January tops surrounding 1.3660. Following that, January 14 swing low near 1.3700 will gain the market’s attention as the RSI might have turned overbought by then. If not then the last month’s peak of 1.3748 should return to the charts. Alternatively, pullback moves remain elusive beyond the resistance-turned-support line, close to 1.3590. Though, a convergence of the 50-SMA, 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of January 2022 downside, around 1.3550, becomes a tough nut to crack for the GBPUSD bears. Should the pair drop below 1.3550, it becomes vulnerable to drop towards the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibo. levels, respectively around 1.3500 and 1.3450. To sum up, a clear upside break of the previous key resistance line joins successful trading beyond the 1.35550 support confluence to favor GBPUSD buyers.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
Impending bull cross tease GBPUSD buyers on UK GDP dayGBPUSD stays ready to reverse the month-start bearish signal, initially triggered by the 50-SMA’s break below 200-SMA, as markets await the preliminary reading of the UK Q4 GDP. However, the monthly resistance line and a descending trend line from January 20, respectively around 1.3585 and 1.3610, guard the quote’s short-term upside. During the pair’s run-up beyond 1.3610, the late January’s peak surrounding 1.3660 may offer an intermediate halt before directing the bulls towards the yearly top near 1.3750. Meanwhile, a clear downside past 50-SMA level of 1.3530 rejects the odds of witnessing a bull cross, which in turn suggests a south-run towards the previous month’s low near 1.3355. That said, 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements (Fibo.) of December-January upside, near 1.3460 and 1.3300 in that order, act as an extra filter during the declines. Overall, GBPUSD bulls have a brighter scope to renew the 2022 peak given the positive support from UK GDP growth data.
by MTradingGlobal
Rising wedge teases GBPUSD sellers before UK Retail SalesGBPUSD’s gradual rebound from the yearly low is at test ahead of the UK Retail Sales as the pair portrays a bearish chart pattern on the four-hour timeframe. It should be noted, however, that the bullish MACD signals and firmer RSI conditions also keep the buyers hopeful. Hence, the pair traders should wait for a clear break of the wedge, currently between 1.3515 and 1.3450, before taking entries. Should the quote rises past 1.3515, a 13-day-old horizontal resistance near 1.3600 and 200-SMA level around 1.3620 will be in focus. Alternatively, a downside break of 1.3450 will confirm the bearish chart pattern and direct the prices towards the 1.3285 level to refresh the yearly bottom. During the fall, the previous resistance line from October, close to 1.3385, will precede the latest bottom of 1.3352 to offer intermediate halts.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD redraws monthly bottom, drops towards 1.3550GBPUSD takes offers around 1.3620, refreshing one-month low after UK Retail Sales for July disappointed the cable traders during early Friday. Also weighing on the quote could be the US dollar’s safe-haven demand, backed by the covid and taper tantrums. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained trading below 200-DMA and bearish MACD adds to the downside signals. Hence, GBPUSD prices are likely to remain weak, at least for now, but a descending trend line from April 12, near 1.3550, could restrict the quote’s further weakness. Additionally challenging Sterling’s weakness around 1.3550 is the RSI conditions, which if ignored could portray a 100-pip slump to 50% Fibonacci retracement. On the contrary, the corrective pullback may aim for April’s low near 1.3670 before targeting 200-DMA around 1.3785. However, a convergence of a downward sloping trend line from June and a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3880 will become a tough nut to crack for the GBPUSD bulls past 1.3785. Successful trading beyond 1.3785 will confirm a falling wedge bullish chart pattern opening the door for a north-run targeting a fresh yearly top beyond 1.4250.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
TS - #FST100Disclaimer This analysis is designed to provide information that CTS believes to be accurate on the subject matter, but is shared with the understanding that the author is NOT offering individualized advice tailored to any specific portfolio or the particular needs of any individual. The author of the analysis specifically disclaims any responsibility for any personal or other loss or risk incurred as a consequence, directly or indirectly, of the use and application of any of the contents of this analysis.
ULong
by CaliforniaTS
GBPUSD teases sellers ahead of UK budgetIn addition to a sustained downside break of the one-month-old support line, portrayed last Friday, the weekly falling trend line also suggests a bearish bias for the GBPUSD prices ahead of the key UK annual budget announcement, up for publishing around 12:30 GMT. It should, however, be noted that British Chancellor Rishi Sunak is up for releasing the heavy government help while targeting speedy recovery from the pandemic. Hence, a cautious selling could be eyed unless the quote stays below the previous support line, now resistance, near 1.4095. For an immediate basis, 1.3970 and the 1.4000 threshold can probe the GBPUSD bulls. Alternatively, a downward sloping trend line from February 22 around 1.3840 and a 200-bar SMA level of 1.3800 could lure the cable sellers should Sunak disappoints markets by announcing plans of tax hikes. Though, the bulls are less likely to lose hopes unless witnessing a daily close below February’s low near 1.3560.
Short
by MTradingGlobal