The 2000 Withdrawal Rally 1$ = 85 INR ???USD INR chart seems to be ready for a rally.
Breakout from the Symmetrical Triangle.
Can we see 85 ?
USDINR
USDINR - 100+ ???One side $ is rising despite of de dollarization efforts. India and RBI has been supporting and buying $ every month as per RBI data when chit chatting with russia for new currency one side and INR trades on another side. Its like put right indicator and show left hand and go straight without turning right or left !!! RBI who refused to reduce interest rate for the sake of Inflation do not talk about USDINR increase.... its commonsense if usdinr fall crude imports becomes costlier and resulting in price rise. while speaking harsh on one side RBI do not have any other option other than this to attract FIIs back to markets. Right now RBI is trying to support the N & BN Bulls.
USDINR - 100+ ???One side $ is rising despite of de dollarization efforts. India and RBI has been supporting and buying $ every month as per RBI data when chit chatting with russia for new currency one side and INR trades on another side. Its like put right indicator and show left hand and go straight without turning right or left !!! RBI who refused to reduce interest rate for the sake of Inflation do not talk about USDINR increase.... its commonsense if usdinr fall crude imports becomes costlier and resulting in price rise. while speaking harsh on one side RBI do not have any other option other than this to attract FIIs back to markets. Right now RBI is trying to support the N & BN Bulls.
Bank Nifty Analisys for 29th November 2024Yesterday BN opened bullish and failed to break 52600 levels and came down and took support 51750 - 780(from where market opened gap up on 25th nov). Fall continued till 1pm after that bank nifty took support and was in range from 51780 to 51980.
Support : 51780,51178 - 51200
Resistance : 52240, 52590-52600
USDINR By KRS ChartsDate: 3rd July 2024
Time: 7:40 PM
Why USDINR?
1. Everyone know INR is getting weaker against USD day by day, and same thing happened here since Oct 2022 but inside Rising Wedge Pattern in Weekly TF.
2. In Bigger view This Rising Wedge Pattern has formed around resistance line off Bigger Flag in Monthly TF. (Red Doted Line)
3. This pattern can either Breakout or Breakdown any side but after considering above both points its likely to Breakdown rather than Breakout till green dotted support line.
Currencies movements are on many Factors so Thats my view on USDINR is Slightly more bearish than Bullish.
But I will appreciate your views on this too, what you guys are thinking?
Fed Rate Cut and Impact on India's Bond Yields, INR and EquitiesThis video gives an overview of how Indian economy performed during the post covid era, vis-a-vis other countries and using that performance as a benchmark, it explains that as US starts to cut rates, how Indian economy, bonds, currency and equities will likely perform
How To Read Budget (i) - Receipts and ExpendituresWhere doe the Government earn from and where does it spend - thats what the budget document tells us.
This video touches these aspects of the budget document - Revenue Receipts, Revenue Expenditure, Capital Receipts, Capital Expenditure, Revenue Deficit, Fiscal Deficit and expenses like interest and pensions
Maharashtra Budget 24 - 25 (small slip of tongue once - sorry)Maharashtra Government announced the interim Budget today for 2024 - 25. The effort is laudable as it has tried to rein the revenue deficit and also reduce borrowing.
Karnataka State Budget Analysis Karnataka has increased its expenses and has not provided for any income increase of the same magnitude. Due to this the state is facing fiscal problems. It is simply resorting to borrowing more to fund its populist programmes. This is a sure receipe for disaster.
USDINR is Bullish - will it help IT - Infy & TCS ?RBI has restricted retail people from trading in usdinr.
for long time RBI has restricted usdinr in the range of 82,75 to 83.30 for more than a year
Now this level is broken and usdinr is seen trading above 83.30 easily for long duration in spot.
This is positive for IT companies like Infy and TCS. May be because of this Infy seen taking good support for several days now. Need to see will IT companies support Nifty now.
Wedge top - Al though a wedge top has formed on USDINR.
Reserve Bank of India may be a villian and stop Indian rupee from appreciating. i.e. stop USDINR falling too far.
Gold breakout and followed history pattern.As we have talked in past post
#DXY is high and after CPI result it has break up side.
same for #USDINR #US10Y
Till it has chance to more fall and here i have added some supports in this post.
you can find your levels and analysis then take trades.
More to indian market has looks fall to come soon as it making pattern like that but all game of news and data which can changed anytime.
Best of luck. Have a great day.
Understanding Impact of Bond Yield Differential on EquitiesOver the past decade the interest rate differential between US and India has been constantly going down. This has largely been due to stronger fiscal position of India and also gradual weakening of US Public Finances.
This has led to the Rupee becoming more stable against the Greenback, thereby reducing the rate of inflation in India.
Further, this has resulted in rising of equity markets over the last decade, and more importantly, the same setup is likely to stay or become better over the next two decades.
Hence long term retail investors in India can benefit from this by placing algo based orders to buy Index ETFs on dips and reduce their cost of buying and stay invested over the long term thereby getting benefit of power of compounding.
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Trading View Script:
India Outlook 2024: Optimistic is an understatement!All factors seem to be falling in place for Indian Economy. And that will likely translate into huge gains for Indian currency, bonds and equities. This update speaks about the signals visible at the beginning of 2024.
USDINR Weekly Short StrangleStrategy Details:
Short Strangle: Sell an OTM call and an OTM put.
Weekly Duration: Initiating the trade on Monday and closing it by the expiry date, which is typically the end of the week for weekly options.
Potential Advantages:
Profit from Time Decay: Options lose value over time, which benefits the seller.
Range-bound Market: If USD/INR stays within the ±0.25 rupees range, the options may expire worthless, allowing you to keep the premium.
Risks and Considerations:
Unexpected Volatility: Significant news or economic events could lead to unexpected volatility, potentially leading to substantial losses.
Assignment Risk: There's a risk of assignment on the sold options, especially if the USD/INR price moves significantly.
Margin Requirements: This strategy requires a sufficient margin as it involves unlimited risk if the market moves significantly against your position.
Timing: Squaring off positions before expiry can help avoid last-minute volatility, but it also means you may not capture the full premium.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Consider setting a stop loss to limit potential losses.
Regular Monitoring: Keep an eye on market news and economic events that might affect USD/INR volatility.
Position Sizing: Ensure the size of the trade is appropriate for your risk tolerance and account size.
Before You Begin:
Backtesting: Test the strategy using historical data to understand potential outcomes.
Understand the Product: Be fully aware of the specifications and risks of trading USD/INR options.
Broker's Rules: Check with your broker regarding the rules and requirements for trading options and the specific margin requirements for a short strangle.
Conclusion:
While a weekly short strangle on USD/INR can be a profitable strategy in a stable, range-bound market, it's crucial to understand the risks and have mechanisms in place to manage those risks. Ensure you're well-prepared and informed before implementing this strategy, and consider consulting with a financial advisor to ensure it aligns with your overall trading goals and risk tolerance.
Rupee best performer 2023. 2024 looks even better.Rupee stayed almost flat against the $ in 2023, depreciating 2% whereas other EM currencies depreciated more than 4%.
Equities soared in 2023 and if things go as they are appearing, then 2024 promises to be even better. There is lot of hop and optimism in the air already about Indian economy and that will most likely translate into higher returns for Indian equity investors.
If you are not in India - You are missing the biggest global party!
Fed stays pat. Equities soar. India's Goldilocks periodIndia has managed to keep its public finance in control and focus on capex led growth. That has ensured that India managed to stay afloat during the storm and now that the storm has subsided, India is on its way to race at higher knots.
This video is an update on the latest global macro developments
India Q2 FY24 GVA/ GDP Data Analysis India's FY24 Q2 GVA/ GDP Data has just been published and it is higher than estimates.
This video analyses the data and in an update to the earlier idea of impact of bond yields on equities.
If there is a global party on...India's gonna lead!As the US Inflation numbers came soft, all doubts about Fed hiking rates in December were gone. That led to all currencies strengthening against the $. US Yields colled off, Dollar Index came down and US Equities soared.
Indian markets also joined the party. The Rupee made strong gains making new multi week highs. G Sec Yields came off highs and Sensex and Nifty just took off to the skies.
As global uncertainity eases, India stands to benefit the most over the next few decades when we rise up the ranks as a global economic superpower.
Rupee makes new low against $. Implications for Indian equitiesRupee made a new low against the greenback on Fri 10 Nov 2023.
Falling Rupee means higher inflation, higher yields, lower liquidity and hence capping of equities.
This is what i discuss in this update
USDINR: Symmetric Pattern Formation Could Precede a Breakout
USDINR is currently forming a symmetrical pattern, which is a consolidation pattern that can precede a breakout in either direction. Swing traders should wait for a clear breakout before taking a position.
Trade with Symmetrical Patterns: A Simplified Guide
Symmetrical triangles signal potential trend pauses or consolidations. Breakouts from these patterns often lead to strong directional moves.
Key Steps:
Identify the triangle: Connect lower highs and higher lows with trendlines.
Determine breakout direction: Analyze the preceding trend.
Place entry orders: Buy above upper trendline for uptrend breakouts, sell below lower trendline for downtrend breakouts.
Set stop-loss orders: Protect profits outside the triangle's boundaries.
Establish profit targets: Base targets on the triangle's height.
Remember:
False breakouts can occur.
Use risk management to protect capital.
Combine triangles with other indicators for a comprehensive approach.
USDINR Price Fluctuations: Key News Events to Watch
USDINR, the currency pair representing the Indian rupee against the US dollar, is highly susceptible to various news events and economic indicators. Here are some key news events to watch:
Global Economic Events: US Federal Reserve monetary policy, US economic data, and global economic conditions.
India-Specific News: RBI monetary policy, Indian economic data, and Indian government policies.
Geopolitical Events: Political instability and regional events.
Happy trading!
Disclaimer :
This is merely a trading idea and not a financial recommendation. It is crucial to conduct your own research and consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions.
Good News Just Doesn't Stop Coming Out of IndiaOver the past few days, there has been a steady fall in Indian yields, largely due to fall in US yields and falling crude oil prices. The rupee has been stable for over a year now; it is this kind of predictability in the economyu that makes India an attractive investment destination vis-a-vis its peers.
As we approach Mahurat Trading, we are crucial resistance levels but the fundamentals and technicals appear to be building up for a rally.
No one can pre empt the markets, hence the indicator script linked below is useful. Whenever the current candle makes a lower low than the previous candle, it gets trigerred and buys. That way we keep buying on lows and pulling the average cost down.
