Trump Tariff Tantrums and Indian MarketsAs Trump Tariffs continue to shock and guide global assets, Indian equities are also not spared. This video tries to co-relate US yields, Gold, Oil, Indian bond yields, USDINR and Indian equities and make sense of all that is happenning globally and what can be the impact of that in the future for retail investors.
We also visit our Algo on ETFs and see how this has performed in the current turmoil.
USDINR
USDINR By KRS Charts 11th March 2025 / 7:24 PM
Why USDINR?
1. Wave Count is Clearly showing that USDINR is in Correction Wave.
2. FVG - Fair Value Gap is Visible + Price is also reacting as per both the theory.
3. 1:3 Risk/Reward
TARGET - Impulsive 4th Wave Level Depth
SL - FVG is Upper Band Closing Basis
USDINR - Is at Support and Below 86.5 is good to buyUSDINR upside is slowed down !!! due to Gold rise in global market and weak US Dollar. In chart few times support has come for usdinr at and below 86.5 levels which I think will be good support since Gold rise could see some consolidation from today. No one asking why US Govt not yet auditing its Gold reserve which they keep commenting no door and windows to their safe houses etc etc and this world still believes such empty statements only for a point gold was never audited. Its Bull trap in Gold right now. FIIs not entering India again in big way yet. I do not see any major US Dollar Inflows into India right now. People still moving to china market or at least preferred by few or several big players. I do not have or analyzed Bond market which is linked to moves of stock market. Any surprise move from BOJ or US Fed could change this view to some extent.
02 Jan 25 - Direct stance change from bearish to bullish---
Nifty Stance Bullish ⬆
In the last post mortem report, I did indicate the change of stance if Nifty goes above 24177. Nifty has a close of 24188 (weighted average) and 24167 (traded value) - so I cannot say with a 100% guarantee if we got a real close above 24177 or not. The 445 pts ~ 1.88% move today gives nifty a direct stance change from bearish to bullish (no neutral stance).
We are up 409pts ~ 1.72% of which 445pts came today, which also means that the stance was bearish till the 2nd of Jan 2025. What happened today is beyond comprehension, I am almost sure that none of the traders were ready for the move like this.
Nifty has moved 728pts intra week of which 445pts came today.
The USDINR chart is also relevant here, especially the mega move once we got a governor change. I think this is an inflection point and a weakening rupee (no firefighting by the RBI) is good for inflows.
Returning to the Nifty report, a fall below 23931 will shift my stance back to bearish so it is pretty important that Nifty holds the level today. If we continue to go up the crucial resistance levels would be 24348 and 24547. I hope we do not go above 24650 for the current expiry.
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The change in regulations is hitting professional traders more than the entry level retail ones. SEBI's new set of rules was implemented to turn off the small traders and since most of them do the options buying, the impact is not that much. The professional traders on the other hand are really going crazy as the new margin requirements are not at all helping.
When you take out the professional traders from the equation, they would prefer to trade on forex, crypto or the US options than the Indian counterpart. It is just a matter of time before we see the intellectual migration to the mother market. The whine and the roar on X is proof that influencers have started talking about alternate trading options. Personally, I feel if most of them get access to a stable market - they would not hesitate to migrate.
USDINR - 100+ ???One side $ is rising despite of de dollarization efforts. India and RBI has been supporting and buying $ every month as per RBI data when chit chatting with russia for new currency one side and INR trades on another side. Its like put right indicator and show left hand and go straight without turning right or left !!! RBI who refused to reduce interest rate for the sake of Inflation do not talk about USDINR increase.... its commonsense if usdinr fall crude imports becomes costlier and resulting in price rise. while speaking harsh on one side RBI do not have any other option other than this to attract FIIs back to markets. Right now RBI is trying to support the N & BN Bulls.
USDINR - 100+ ???One side $ is rising despite of de dollarization efforts. India and RBI has been supporting and buying $ every month as per RBI data when chit chatting with russia for new currency one side and INR trades on another side. Its like put right indicator and show left hand and go straight without turning right or left !!! RBI who refused to reduce interest rate for the sake of Inflation do not talk about USDINR increase.... its commonsense if usdinr fall crude imports becomes costlier and resulting in price rise. while speaking harsh on one side RBI do not have any other option other than this to attract FIIs back to markets. Right now RBI is trying to support the N & BN Bulls.
Bank Nifty Analisys for 29th November 2024Yesterday BN opened bullish and failed to break 52600 levels and came down and took support 51750 - 780(from where market opened gap up on 25th nov). Fall continued till 1pm after that bank nifty took support and was in range from 51780 to 51980.
Support : 51780,51178 - 51200
Resistance : 52240, 52590-52600
USDINR By KRS ChartsDate: 3rd July 2024
Time: 7:40 PM
Why USDINR?
1. Everyone know INR is getting weaker against USD day by day, and same thing happened here since Oct 2022 but inside Rising Wedge Pattern in Weekly TF.
2. In Bigger view This Rising Wedge Pattern has formed around resistance line off Bigger Flag in Monthly TF. (Red Doted Line)
3. This pattern can either Breakout or Breakdown any side but after considering above both points its likely to Breakdown rather than Breakout till green dotted support line.
Currencies movements are on many Factors so Thats my view on USDINR is Slightly more bearish than Bullish.
But I will appreciate your views on this too, what you guys are thinking?
Fed Rate Cut and Impact on India's Bond Yields, INR and EquitiesThis video gives an overview of how Indian economy performed during the post covid era, vis-a-vis other countries and using that performance as a benchmark, it explains that as US starts to cut rates, how Indian economy, bonds, currency and equities will likely perform
How To Read Budget (i) - Receipts and ExpendituresWhere doe the Government earn from and where does it spend - thats what the budget document tells us.
This video touches these aspects of the budget document - Revenue Receipts, Revenue Expenditure, Capital Receipts, Capital Expenditure, Revenue Deficit, Fiscal Deficit and expenses like interest and pensions
USDINR is Bullish - will it help IT - Infy & TCS ?RBI has restricted retail people from trading in usdinr.
for long time RBI has restricted usdinr in the range of 82,75 to 83.30 for more than a year
Now this level is broken and usdinr is seen trading above 83.30 easily for long duration in spot.
This is positive for IT companies like Infy and TCS. May be because of this Infy seen taking good support for several days now. Need to see will IT companies support Nifty now.
Gold breakout and followed history pattern.As we have talked in past post
#DXY is high and after CPI result it has break up side.
same for #USDINR #US10Y
Till it has chance to more fall and here i have added some supports in this post.
you can find your levels and analysis then take trades.
More to indian market has looks fall to come soon as it making pattern like that but all game of news and data which can changed anytime.
Best of luck. Have a great day.
Understanding Impact of Bond Yield Differential on EquitiesOver the past decade the interest rate differential between US and India has been constantly going down. This has largely been due to stronger fiscal position of India and also gradual weakening of US Public Finances.
This has led to the Rupee becoming more stable against the Greenback, thereby reducing the rate of inflation in India.
Further, this has resulted in rising of equity markets over the last decade, and more importantly, the same setup is likely to stay or become better over the next two decades.
Hence long term retail investors in India can benefit from this by placing algo based orders to buy Index ETFs on dips and reduce their cost of buying and stay invested over the long term thereby getting benefit of power of compounding.
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Trading View Script:
USDINR Weekly Short StrangleStrategy Details:
Short Strangle: Sell an OTM call and an OTM put.
Weekly Duration: Initiating the trade on Monday and closing it by the expiry date, which is typically the end of the week for weekly options.
Potential Advantages:
Profit from Time Decay: Options lose value over time, which benefits the seller.
Range-bound Market: If USD/INR stays within the ±0.25 rupees range, the options may expire worthless, allowing you to keep the premium.
Risks and Considerations:
Unexpected Volatility: Significant news or economic events could lead to unexpected volatility, potentially leading to substantial losses.
Assignment Risk: There's a risk of assignment on the sold options, especially if the USD/INR price moves significantly.
Margin Requirements: This strategy requires a sufficient margin as it involves unlimited risk if the market moves significantly against your position.
Timing: Squaring off positions before expiry can help avoid last-minute volatility, but it also means you may not capture the full premium.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Consider setting a stop loss to limit potential losses.
Regular Monitoring: Keep an eye on market news and economic events that might affect USD/INR volatility.
Position Sizing: Ensure the size of the trade is appropriate for your risk tolerance and account size.
Before You Begin:
Backtesting: Test the strategy using historical data to understand potential outcomes.
Understand the Product: Be fully aware of the specifications and risks of trading USD/INR options.
Broker's Rules: Check with your broker regarding the rules and requirements for trading options and the specific margin requirements for a short strangle.
Conclusion:
While a weekly short strangle on USD/INR can be a profitable strategy in a stable, range-bound market, it's crucial to understand the risks and have mechanisms in place to manage those risks. Ensure you're well-prepared and informed before implementing this strategy, and consider consulting with a financial advisor to ensure it aligns with your overall trading goals and risk tolerance.
Rupee best performer 2023. 2024 looks even better.Rupee stayed almost flat against the $ in 2023, depreciating 2% whereas other EM currencies depreciated more than 4%.
Equities soared in 2023 and if things go as they are appearing, then 2024 promises to be even better. There is lot of hop and optimism in the air already about Indian economy and that will most likely translate into higher returns for Indian equity investors.
If you are not in India - You are missing the biggest global party!
Fed stays pat. Equities soar. India's Goldilocks periodIndia has managed to keep its public finance in control and focus on capex led growth. That has ensured that India managed to stay afloat during the storm and now that the storm has subsided, India is on its way to race at higher knots.
This video is an update on the latest global macro developments