Fed Rate Cut and Impact on India's Bond Yields, INR and EquitiesThis video gives an overview of how Indian economy performed during the post covid era, vis-a-vis other countries and using that performance as a benchmark, it explains that as US starts to cut rates, how Indian economy, bonds, currency and equities will likely perform
USDINR
How To Read Budget (i) - Receipts and ExpendituresWhere doe the Government earn from and where does it spend - thats what the budget document tells us.
This video touches these aspects of the budget document - Revenue Receipts, Revenue Expenditure, Capital Receipts, Capital Expenditure, Revenue Deficit, Fiscal Deficit and expenses like interest and pensions
Understanding Impact of Bond Yield Differential on EquitiesOver the past decade the interest rate differential between US and India has been constantly going down. This has largely been due to stronger fiscal position of India and also gradual weakening of US Public Finances.
This has led to the Rupee becoming more stable against the Greenback, thereby reducing the rate of inflation in India.
Further, this has resulted in rising of equity markets over the last decade, and more importantly, the same setup is likely to stay or become better over the next two decades.
Hence long term retail investors in India can benefit from this by placing algo based orders to buy Index ETFs on dips and reduce their cost of buying and stay invested over the long term thereby getting benefit of power of compounding.
---------------------
Trading View Script:
Rupee best performer 2023. 2024 looks even better.Rupee stayed almost flat against the $ in 2023, depreciating 2% whereas other EM currencies depreciated more than 4%.
Equities soared in 2023 and if things go as they are appearing, then 2024 promises to be even better. There is lot of hop and optimism in the air already about Indian economy and that will most likely translate into higher returns for Indian equity investors.
If you are not in India - You are missing the biggest global party!
Fed stays pat. Equities soar. India's Goldilocks periodIndia has managed to keep its public finance in control and focus on capex led growth. That has ensured that India managed to stay afloat during the storm and now that the storm has subsided, India is on its way to race at higher knots.
This video is an update on the latest global macro developments
If there is a global party on...India's gonna lead!As the US Inflation numbers came soft, all doubts about Fed hiking rates in December were gone. That led to all currencies strengthening against the $. US Yields colled off, Dollar Index came down and US Equities soared.
Indian markets also joined the party. The Rupee made strong gains making new multi week highs. G Sec Yields came off highs and Sensex and Nifty just took off to the skies.
As global uncertainity eases, India stands to benefit the most over the next few decades when we rise up the ranks as a global economic superpower.
Good News Just Doesn't Stop Coming Out of IndiaOver the past few days, there has been a steady fall in Indian yields, largely due to fall in US yields and falling crude oil prices. The rupee has been stable for over a year now; it is this kind of predictability in the economyu that makes India an attractive investment destination vis-a-vis its peers.
As we approach Mahurat Trading, we are crucial resistance levels but the fundamentals and technicals appear to be building up for a rally.
No one can pre empt the markets, hence the indicator script linked below is useful. Whenever the current candle makes a lower low than the previous candle, it gets trigerred and buys. That way we keep buying on lows and pulling the average cost down.
Implications of small changes in US Bond Yields and USDINR As US Yields cool off a tad bit, it results into Dollar index cooling and Rupee strengthening. Our Forex Reserves increased, our yields fell and our benchmark equity indices soared. India's maiden 50 year bond issue was oversubscribed and that shows how much interest and confidence there is about India over the coming few decades.
India's largest Festival season - Diwali is on and that is adding to the positive mood and momentum.
Technicals also seem to be changing from sell to buy - but it is early days yet.
So the script works just fine in these conditions as in all other ones. If market makes a new low as compared to previous candle, it buys one unit, thereby effectively pulling the average cost down.
US Fed keeps rates unchanged - Indian markets rejoiceAs the FED did not tinker with rates, Indian equity markets saw a gap up opening. This was probably on the hope tha FII selling will subside and the continuous fall which we were witnessing may pause/ stop.
India's largest festival - Diwali - is on, followed by the Union Budget coming in early 2024 and soon after that the central elections would be announced.
So lot of news flow expected going forward.
Algos help take the subjectivity and emotions out of the decision making, and that is what i have explained in the end of this video idea.
Tight Liquidity Globally as well as locally pulls Equities downRising US Yields are attracting liquidity from all assets. Also, in the domestic markets the yield curve has become flat.
From being normal sloping during height of Covid to flat today; the shape and level of the yield curve have repercussions on investors.
This video examines the liquidity situation globally as well as locally and tracks leading indicators to get a sense of whether the trend is reversing any time soon.
These fundamental factors lead to technical charts being formed which are now looking more and more bearish.
Finally this video puts it all together to convert all the analysis into action. The script which i have shared is a simple indicator ewhich checks if the low of the current candle is lower than the previous one, and if so, it triggers a buy alert.
Simple as it sounds, is also very effective in pulling the buying average down as we increase the quantity of our holding.
Indian and US G Sec Yields and impact on USDINR and EquitiesBond Yields in India are anchored at 7% whereas in US the curve is inverted and interest rates are going to be 'higher for longer'.
Inspite of this Rupee is not getting hammerred, due to huge forex reserves and even the Indian stock market is fairly resilient, thanks to deluge of local money.
So going forward, a long term investor is likely to benefit if he/ she keeps buying the dip and just stay invested.
USDINR Possible Elliott wave counts Hello Friends
Here we had shared possible Elliott wave counts on chart of USDINR, which is clearly showing that on bigger scale we are in 5th wave of some higher degree, in which we had finished wave (1)-(2)-(3) and currently we are in either in wave (4) or in wave 2 of wave (5).
Also both scenarios are discussed in this video post, you can go through this video post which is explained in best possible way for Educational purpose only.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Possible scenario
Alternate scenario
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
#NIFTY & BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS AS ON 20/02/2023 |BUCKSTRADERSYour search for today's market highlight ends here.
Please do share your feedback with us, we are more than happy to help you out and do not forget to subscribe our channel.
#StockRecommendations #StockMarket #Trading #IntradayTrading #Buy #Accumulate
Disclaimer: These are not any recommendations for any funds or stocks and are meant only for educational purposes.
✔️Daily Stock recommendations
✔️Research reports on 230+ stocks and 20+ sectors
✔️Dedicated Personal Advisor.
USDINR multi time frame aligned Elliott wave counts analysisUSDINR possible and aligned Elliott wave structure of multi time frames from monthly to hourly.
Monthly chart
Weekly chart
Daily chart
4 Hourly chart
1 Hourly chart
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Disclaimer.
I am not sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
#USDINRDescription
This channel is only for educational purpose and all the information provided here in this channel is not intended trading or investing. Investment in market are subjected to market risk.